Key Points Altria fell short of top-line estimates in Q3, reporting a decline in revenue. Consumers are trading down to discount cigarettes due to discretionary spending pressures. The company continues to face challenges with its pivot to next-gen challenges. 10 stocks we like better than Altria Group › Shares of Altria (NYSE: MO) were heading lower last month as the Marlboro-maker disappointed investors with its third-quarter earnings report. Heading into the report at the end of the month, th ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Consolidated revenue increased by 31% to $119 million for Q3 2025, with adjusted EBITDA rising 17% to $31.3 million [7][17] - Gross margin improved to 59.2%, up 360 basis points year over year and 210 basis points sequentially [17] - Adjusted EBITDA guidance raised to a range of $115-$120 million, up from $110-$114 million [7][19] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Modern oral revenue, including Fre and On!, surged 628% year over year to $36.7 million [8][18] - Stoker's revenue increased by 81% to approximately $74.8 million, with MST sales up 6% and loose leaf sales up 4% [12][18] - Zig-Zag revenue decreased by 11% to $44.2 million, reflecting anticipated declines due to a focus on modern oral products [12][17] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - White nicotine pouch brands now account for 31% of the business, up from 26% in Q2 and 6% a year ago [18] - Analysts expect the nicotine pouch category to approach or exceed $10 billion in manufacturers' revenue by the end of the decade [9] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is prioritizing investments in modern oral products while maintaining cash flow from heritage brands [10][11] - Key initiatives include reallocating sales and marketing resources, expanding international markets, and enhancing U.S. manufacturing capabilities [10][11] - The company aims to double the size of its sales force by the end of 2026 [11] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the growth potential in the nicotine pouch market and the company's long-term target of achieving double-digit market share [9] - The company is focused on maintaining a balance between growth and profitability, with expectations of continued promotional activity in the market [66] Other Important Information - The company raised $100 million in gross proceeds under its at-the-market offering program to support growth initiatives [10][19] - The company plans to update its buyback authorizations to provide for $200 million of capacity under each program [10] Q&A Session Summary Question: Capacity and COGS for onshoring - Management indicated that onshoring will lead to immediate savings in inbound freight and tariff avoidance, with expected improvements in unit economics as production ramps up [22][24][25] Question: In-store market share for modern oral category - Management noted that while specific market share data is not disclosed, they are encouraged by the results of in-store selling as distribution expands [26][27] Question: Growth drivers for MST and loose leaf - Growth in MST and loose leaf was attributed to a combination of increased market share and favorable pricing, with significant opportunities for further gains [31][32] Question: Modern oral growth drivers for Fre and On! - Both brands experienced healthy growth, with On! dominating B2C and making inroads into brick-and-mortar accounts, while Fre had a strong quarter in both online and physical retail [33][35] Question: Promotional environment outlook - Management remains bullish on the category, anticipating continued promotional activity driven by larger competitors, while focusing on building brand connections with consumers [66]

Core Viewpoint - Altria Group's collaboration with South Korean tobacco giant KT&G could enhance its smoke-free product offerings and secure its high dividend yield for the future [3][6][9] Financial Performance - Altria is a Dividend King with over 50 consecutive years of dividend growth and currently has a forward yield of 6.45% [1] - In Q2 2025, Altria's net revenue fell by 3.6% year-over-year, and GAAP earnings per share decreased by 36.2% [4] - Despite a recent increase in sales of its On! tobacco pouch product, volumes remain significantly lower than market leader Zyn, with On! reporting 52.1 million cans shipped compared to Zyn's 190.2 million cans [5] Strategic Developments - Altria announced a memorandum of understanding for a non-binding global collaboration with KT&G, focusing on the development of non-tobacco nicotine pouches and acquiring an equity stake in Another Snus Factory Stockholm AB [6][7] - The partnership may allow Altria to expand the On! brand globally and explore international growth opportunities for the Loop brand [8] Market Position and Valuation - Altria's potential for growth in non-U.S. markets and modest market share gains in the U.S. nicotine pouch market could stabilize net sales and support modest earnings and dividend growth [9] - Currently, Altria's shares trade at 11.7 times forward earnings, while Philip Morris International trades at nearly 20 times forward earnings, indicating a potential for valuation catch-up [9][10]

Core Viewpoint - Altria Group, known for its Marlboro brand, faces an uncertain future despite its history of consistent dividend increases and dominance in the tobacco market [1][2]. Industry Transition - The tobacco industry is shifting from combustible cigarettes to smoke-free products, with Altria's ability to adapt to these trends being crucial for its long-term viability [2][5]. - The U.S. tobacco market remains lucrative, with Altria holding a 41% share of the retail cigarette market and 59.5% of the premium segment [4]. Product Development Challenges - Altria has struggled to establish itself in the next-generation product categories, including electronic vapes and heated tobacco devices, following a failed investment in Juul and a recent patent loss [5][6][7]. - Oral nicotine salt pouches have been Altria's most successful smoke-free product, but it still lags behind competitors like Philip Morris International's Zyn [8]. Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, approximately 83% of Altria's operating income came from smokeable products, indicating that smoke-free products are not yet a significant revenue source [9]. - The legacy smokeable segment remains profitable, allowing Altria to slowly increase free cash flow per share through price hikes and stock repurchases [10]. Dividend and Growth Outlook - Altria recently raised its dividend by 3.9%, offering a starting yield of 6.5%, with analysts projecting an average earnings growth of 3.4% annually over the next three to five years [11][12]. - The company is expected to maintain steady dividend growth for at least another five years, provided it can improve its performance in next-generation products [12]. Distribution Network Advantage - Altria's extensive distribution network, built through its Marlboro brand, positions it to potentially regain market share in new product categories if it executes effectively [13]. Investment Considerations - Altria is considered a strong high-yield dividend stock, appealing to investors seeking steady income, though it may not be suitable for those looking for high growth and capital gains [14][15]. - The company must enhance its product rollout and market presence in the transitioning nicotine industry to secure its long-term position [16].

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of conducting personal in-depth research and due diligence before making investment decisions, highlighting the inherent risks involved in trading [3]. Group 1 - The analysis is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered as professional investment advice [3]. - There is a clear disclaimer regarding the lack of any stock, option, or derivative positions in the companies mentioned, indicating a neutral stance [2]. - The article expresses that past performance does not guarantee future results, reinforcing the need for careful consideration by investors [4].

Core Viewpoint - Altria Group is experiencing a resurgence in stock performance, with a 30% total return for shareholders in 2025, outperforming the market over the past five years [1] Financial Performance - Altria's dividend yield is currently at 6.25%, significantly higher than the market average, providing stable cash flows to investors [2] - Despite a 10% year-over-year decline in cigarette volumes, Altria's smokeable products segment grew operating earnings by 4.4% to $2.9 billion, driven by price increases and growth in the cigars segment [3][4] - The company has reduced its shares outstanding by 14% over the last five years through stock buybacks, which supports an increase in dividend per share [7][8] Strategic Initiatives - Altria is focusing on alternative nicotine products to drive long-term growth, having acquired the NJOY electronic vaping brand and seeing a 26.5% year-over-year volume growth in its On! nicotine pouch brand [10][11] - Management has time to invest in these new categories before traditional cash flows from cigarettes diminish, but significant growth in these areas will be necessary for future relevance [12] Investment Considerations - Altria is recommended for its current dividend yield and growth potential, while investors should monitor the performance of its new nicotine products for signs of success [13]