Workflow
Onvo L60
icon
Search documents
NIO INC.(9866.HK):FAIR VALUATION WITH CONTINUED NET LOSS IN FY26E
Ge Long Hui· 2025-09-04 03:15
Investors should not overlook competition in FY26E. We are of the view that we could not draw a linear extrapolation on NIO's sales volume in FY26E, based on its 4Q25 figures, as other automakers could launch new models with even more aggressive pricing. Even as we project NIO's FY26E sales volume to be 0.5mn units, we still expect NIO to post a GAAP net loss of RMB7.8bn in FY26E. We believe NIO's three-brand strategy, heavy investments in NIO House, battery swap, chips and even mobile phones, would require ...
What's Powering Nio Stock Higher?
Forbes· 2025-08-26 09:05
Company Overview - Nio has experienced a stock surge of over 14% recently, with a nearly 28% increase over the past five trading sessions, driven by the introduction of a competitively priced premium SUV amid intensifying price competition in the Chinese electric vehicle market [2][3] - The newly designed third generation ES8 SUV is priced at approximately RMB 308,800 (around $43,000) under a battery subscription model, which lowers initial costs and offers flexibility for customers [2][3] Market Dynamics - The new ES8 SUV model is priced about 25% lower than its predecessor, addressing consumer concerns regarding high upfront costs and battery reliability [3] - The Chinese electric vehicle sector is experiencing fierce price competition, with major players like Tesla, BYD, Xpeng, Li Auto, and Nio competing for market share through price reductions [3] Delivery and Product Expansion - Nio's delivery figures have shown inconsistency, with July 2025 deliveries totaling 21,017 units, down from June's 24,925 units [4] - The company has launched its value-oriented Onvo brand, with the flagship Onvo L90 SUV starting at RMB 265,800 ($37,000) and achieving over 7,000 units delivered within the first three weeks of August [4] New Market Initiatives - Nio's new Firefly brand targets the high-end compact segment aimed at younger urban consumers in China and is set to expand into Europe, with vehicles starting at approximately $16,500 [5] - Nio plans to enter three new countries between 2025 and 2026, including Singapore, marking its first Southeast Asia launch with a Firefly model [5] Valuation Insights - Nio stock is currently trading at about 1x estimated 2025 revenue, significantly lower than competitors like Xpeng at around 2x and Tesla at 11x revenue, indicating market reservations about Nio's growth and profitability potential [5]
摩根士丹利:蔚来公司-2025 年中国最佳会议反馈
摩根· 2025-05-12 03:14
Investment Rating - The investment rating for NIO Inc. is Overweight, with a price target of US$5.90, indicating a potential upside of 54% from the current price of US$3.84 [4]. Core Insights - NIO management anticipates steady month-over-month deliveries in May, with a more significant increase expected in June due to new facelifts of models ET5/Touring and ES6/EC6. They project Onvo L60 monthly sales could reach 7-8k in the second half of 2025, with new launches of L90 and L80 expected to positively impact overall volume [1]. - The company has achieved a 10% reduction in Bill of Materials (BoM) costs since last year and expects further savings through various strategies, including in-house chip usage and supply chain consolidation [2]. - NIO has initiated layoffs of approximately 5,000 employees, primarily in R&D and sales, with expectations of cost savings materializing in the second quarter of 2025 [3]. Summary by Sections Deliveries and Sales Projections - Management expects deliveries to stabilize in May and increase in June, supported by new model facelifts. Onvo L60 sales are projected to grow significantly in the latter half of 2025, with additional model launches expected to enhance overall sales volume [1]. Cost Management - NIO has successfully reduced BoM costs by 10% and anticipates further reductions through various initiatives, including the use of in-house components and supply chain efficiencies [2]. Organizational Changes - The company has laid off around 5,000 employees, mainly from R&D and sales, with further layoffs possible in the second half of 2025. Cost savings from these layoffs are expected to be realized starting in the second quarter of 2025 [3].
Should You Buy Nio While It's Below Its IPO Price?
The Motley Fool· 2025-05-09 07:15
Core Viewpoint - Nio, a leading Chinese electric vehicle maker, is experiencing a turnaround despite facing challenges, and its current stock price may present a buying opportunity for investors [2][9]. Company Overview - Nio went public at $6.26 per ADR on September 12, 2018, and reached a record high of $62.84 on February 9, 2021, before its stock price fell to around $4 due to concerns over slowing deliveries and financial performance [1][2]. Competitive Differentiation - Nio differentiates itself from competitors by offering removable batteries, expanding into Europe, and providing a diverse range of vehicles from high-end to low-end models [2][3]. Growth Metrics - Nio's annual deliveries more than doubled in 2020 and 2021, but growth slowed to 34% in 2022 and 31% in 2023, attributed to competition and economic factors. However, deliveries increased by 39% in 2024, reaching 221,970 vehicles, with vehicle margins improving to 12.3% [4][5][6]. Financial Performance - Analysts project Nio's revenue to rise by 39% to 91.1 billion yuan ($12.5 billion) for the full year, while net losses are expected to decrease from 22.7 billion yuan to 16.4 billion yuan ($2.3 billion). Nio's enterprise value is 77 billion yuan ($10.6 billion), trading at less than one times this year's sales [7][8]. Potential Catalysts - Near-term catalysts for Nio include potential trade deals between the U.S. and China, changes in EU tariffs on Chinese EVs, and plans to sell a controlling stake in its battery division to CATL [8].
3 Top EV Stocks to Buy in April
The Motley Fool· 2025-04-06 22:41
Core Viewpoint - The electric vehicle (EV) market is experiencing turbulence, particularly affecting Tesla, which has seen a 40% drop in shares this year. This situation may create opportunities for smaller EV manufacturers like Rivian, Nio, and Polestar to gain market share and investor interest [2]. Rivian - Rivian's vehicle deliveries surged by 147% to 50,122 in 2023 but are projected to rise only 3% to 51,759 in 2024 due to supply chain constraints and competition [3][4]. - For 2025, Rivian aims to deliver between 46,000 to 51,000 vehicles as it faces additional plant shutdowns and component shortages [4]. - Despite a challenging outlook, Rivian's gross margin improved from negative 188% in 2022 to negative 24% in 2024, with expectations of a modest gross profit in 2025 driven by lower manufacturing costs and higher-margin software sales [5]. - Rivian's enterprise value is $12.6 billion, trading at 2.3 times this year's sales, which is significantly lower than Tesla's 6.9 times [6]. Nio - Nio's deliveries grew by 39% to 221,970 vehicles in 2024, recovering from a slowdown attributed to supply chain issues and competition [8]. - The company launched the lower-end Onvo L60, priced at $20,500, which resembles Tesla's Model Y, contributing to its market share growth [8]. - Nio's annual vehicle margin improved from 9.5% in 2023 to 12.3% in 2024, aided by a higher mix of premium vehicle sales [8]. - Nio has an enterprise value of $8.9 billion, trading at 0.7 times this year's sales, indicating a potentially attractive investment opportunity [9]. Polestar - Polestar's deliveries increased by 6% in 2023 after an 80% surge in 2022, facing delays in launching the Polestar 3 due to software issues [11]. - The company anticipates a revenue decline in the "mid-teens" for 2024, impacted by slower sales in a challenging market [11]. - Polestar is offering "Trade in Your Tesla" deals of up to $20,000, which may attract customers as Tesla's brand perception declines [12]. - Analysts project Polestar's revenue to more than double in 2025 with the launch of the Polestar 5 and expansion of manufacturing facilities [13]. - Polestar's enterprise value is $4.6 billion, trading at 1.0 times its projected sales for 2025, suggesting significant upside potential if operational issues are resolved [13].
Better EV Stock: Nio vs. Rivian
The Motley Fool· 2025-03-28 08:30
Core Insights - Nio and Rivian, once leading electric vehicle stocks, have seen significant declines in their stock prices due to lower vehicle deliveries and substantial losses [2][14] - Nio is experiencing a recovery in its business with increasing deliveries and expanding vehicle margins, while Rivian is facing challenges with production and supply chain issues [2][8] Nio Overview - Nio's vehicle deliveries have grown significantly from 20,565 in 2019 to an expected 221,970 in 2024, with a peak growth rate of 113% in 2020 [4] - The company has faced challenges in 2022 and 2023, including supply chain issues and competition, leading to a decline in vehicle margins from 20.1% in 2021 to 9.5% in 2023 [3][4] - Nio's recent product launches, including the lower-end Onvo L60 and the Firefly hatchback, are expected to drive future growth [6][4] - Analysts project Nio's revenue to increase by 38% in 2025 and 32% in 2026, despite remaining unprofitable [7] Rivian Overview - Rivian's vehicle deliveries increased from 920 in 2021 to 50,122 in 2023, but growth is expected to stall in 2024 due to production shutdowns for upgrades [10] - The company has struggled with negative gross margins, which improved from -845.5% in 2021 to -24.1% in 2024, but profitability is still not expected soon [10][12] - Rivian anticipates delivering between 46,000 to 51,000 vehicles in 2025, with the launch of the R2 SUV planned for 2026 [11] - Analysts expect Rivian's revenue growth to be modest at 8% in 2025, with a potential increase of 40% in 2026 [13] Investment Comparison - Nio is viewed as a more attractive investment due to its higher vehicle deliveries, clearer future plans, and lower valuations compared to Rivian [14] - Rivian's future performance is uncertain, particularly with the upcoming R2 launch, making it a riskier investment at this time [14]
Could Buying Nio Stock Today Set You Up for Life?
The Motley Fool· 2025-03-16 22:54
Core Viewpoint - Nio's stock appears undervalued, trading below its IPO price, but faces challenges in delivering consistent growth and profitability [1][2][11]. Delivery Performance - Nio's annual deliveries surged nearly 11-fold from 2019 to 2024, but growth decelerated significantly in 2022 and 2023 due to supply chain constraints, competition, and economic slowdown [3][4]. - Deliveries: 20,565 in 2019, 43,728 in 2020, 91,429 in 2021, 122,486 in 2022, 160,038 in 2023, and projected 221,970 in 2024 [4]. Financial Metrics - Nio's vehicle margin decreased from a record high of 20.2% in 2021 to 9.5% in 2023, while annual net loss more than quadrupled from 2021 to 2023 [4][9]. - Revenue is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 30% from 2023 to 2026, with a projected revenue of 97.6 billion yuan ($13.5 billion) for 2025 [9][10]. Market Position and Strategy - Nio differentiates itself with swappable batteries and has launched new models like the Onvo L60 and Firefly to capture market share [2][6][8]. - The company is expanding in Europe despite facing higher tariffs on Chinese-made EVs [6][8]. Margin Recovery - Quarterly vehicle margins improved in 2024, increasing from 9.2% in Q1 to 13.1% in Q3, with expectations to reach 15% in Q4 [7][9]. Valuation and Investment Potential - Nio's enterprise value is 76.9 billion yuan ($10.9 billion), trading at less than 1 times its projected sales for 2025, compared to Tesla's 6 times [10]. - Persistent U.S.-China tensions and market cooling are affecting Nio's valuations, but easing pressures could lead to a revaluation as a growth stock [11][12].