研究报告 Research Report 27 Nov 2025 蔚来 NIO Inc. (9866 HK) 3Q25 规模与盈利双改善，盈利拐点已现但持续性待验证 3Q25 Scale and Margin Improve, Profit Inflection Emerges but Sustainability Remains Uncertain [Table_yemei 观点聚焦 1] Investment Focus [Table_Info] 维持中性 Maintain NEUTRAL 评级 中性 NEUTRAL 现价 HK$46.82 目标价 HK$50.02 HTI ESG 4.7-1.1-3.0 E-S-G: 0-5, (Please refer to the Appendix for ESG comments) 市值 HK$91.13bn / US$11.71bn 日交易额 (3 个月均值) US$71.24mn 发行股票数目 1,946mn 自由流通股 (%) 66% 1 年股价最高最低值 HK$61.20-HK$24.50 注：现价 HK$46.82 为 2025 年 11 月 25 日收 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for NIO Inc. is Overweight, with a price target of US$5.90, indicating a potential upside of 54% from the current price of US$3.84 [4]. Core Insights - NIO management anticipates steady month-over-month deliveries in May, with a more significant increase expected in June due to new facelifts of models ET5/Touring and ES6/EC6. They project Onvo L60 monthly sales could reach 7-8k in the second half of 2025, with new launches of L90 and L80 expected to positively impact overall volume [1]. - The company has achieved a 10% reduction in Bill of Materials (BoM) costs since last year and expects further savings through various strategies, including in-house chip usage and supply chain consolidation [2]. - NIO has initiated layoffs of approximately 5,000 employees, primarily in R&D and sales, with expectations of cost savings materializing in the second quarter of 2025 [3]. Summary by Sections Deliveries and Sales Projections - Management expects deliveries to stabilize in May and increase in June, supported by new model facelifts. Onvo L60 sales are projected to grow significantly in the latter half of 2025, with additional model launches expected to enhance overall sales volume [1]. Cost Management - NIO has successfully reduced BoM costs by 10% and anticipates further reductions through various initiatives, including the use of in-house components and supply chain efficiencies [2]. Organizational Changes - The company has laid off around 5,000 employees, mainly from R&D and sales, with further layoffs possible in the second half of 2025. Cost savings from these layoffs are expected to be realized starting in the second quarter of 2025 [3].