Fabrinet ( FN ) has been a clear benefactor of the AI CapEx cycle. The optical and electronic component company’s optical transceivers, optical cables, and other products are important in building out data center infrastructure for AI. GrowthI am an avid investor with a major focus on small cap companies with experience in investing in US, Canadian, and European markets. My investment philosophy to generating great returns on the stock market revolves around identifying mispriced securities by understanding ...

Global AI Trend Tracker EQUITY: TECHNOLOGY AI Expert Call #58: high speed copper cable market updates Quick Note We hosted our AI Expert Call Series #58 today (27 January), with an expert from a leading AI networking technology company. The expert discussed key market trends of high- speed copper in the AI data center market, including market size and market share of high-speed copper cable (DAC/ACC/AEC), global CSPs' (Cloud Service Providers) roadmap, optics replacing copper trend, etc. Below are the key t ...

Core Viewpoint - Broadcom is positioned as a leader in the semiconductor and software industry, driven by strong demand for AI and high-speed connectivity solutions [1][4]. Company Overview - Founded in 1991, Broadcom is headquartered in Palo Alto, California, with operations in 25 countries [2]. Stock Performance - Broadcom's stock (AVGO) trades around $325, experiencing short-term challenges amid broader market dips, with a recent 4% increase over five days compared to a flat performance of the S&P 500 Information Technology Index [3]. - Over the past month, AVGO is down 5%, while the index has lost 2%. Year-to-date figures show a decline of 3% for Broadcom against a 1% loss for the index [3]. Financial Performance - Broadcom reported record Q4 2025 earnings with revenue of $18.0 billion, a 28% year-over-year increase, surpassing analyst estimates by 3%-4% [5]. - Adjusted EPS for the quarter was $1.95, exceeding forecasts by 4.28% [5]. - Adjusted EBITDA reached $12.12-$12.22 billion (68% margin), up 34% YoY, with a gross margin of 77.9% and an operating margin of 66.2% [6]. - Free cash flow increased by 36-39% to $7.5 billion, and cash reserves totaled $16.2 billion [6]. - Operating income rose to $11.9 billion, a 35% increase, with AI semiconductors contributing $11.1 billion in segment revenue, reflecting 35% growth [6]. Future Guidance - For Q1 2026, Broadcom projects revenue of $19.1 billion, a 28% YoY increase, including $8.2 billion from AI semiconductors (doubling YoY) and $6.8 billion from infrastructure software [7]. - The full-year 2026 outlook indicates accelerating AI growth, stable non-AI semiconductors, and low double-digit gains in software, with adjusted EBITDA expected at 67% [7].

Company Overview - Coherent Corp. (NYSE:COHR) is a manufacturer of engineered materials, laser systems, and optoelectronic components utilized in communications, industrial, and electronics sectors [2] - The company is recognized as a global leader in materials, networking, and lasers for various markets, including industrial, communications, electronics, and instrumentation [2] Market Performance - Recently, Coherent's stock has experienced a significant increase, described as a "banshee" run-up, indicating strong market interest and performance [1] - The company is benefiting from robust demand for its data center-related products, particularly optical transceivers, which are driving its growth [2] Investment Insights - Investment analysts, including Jim Cramer, express a positive outlook on Coherent, suggesting that any dips in stock price should be viewed as buying opportunities [1] - Despite the positive sentiment towards Coherent, some analysts believe that certain AI stocks may present greater upside potential with less downside risk [3]

Core Insights - Three data center stocks experienced significant price increases following their latest financial results, with varying analyst sentiments regarding their future performance [2] Group 1: Lumentum (LITE) - Lumentum's shares surged nearly 24% on November 5 after the company reported earnings [3] - Revenue increased by 58% to $543 million, surpassing estimates of $525 million, while adjusted EPS reached $1.10, beating expectations by 7 cents [4] - Analysts express concerns that LITE may be overbought, with a consensus price target of just under $191 indicating a potential downside of approximately 21% [5] - Price targets from analysts vary, with Rosenblatt projecting a $280 target (16% upside) and B. Riley at $147 (nearly 40% downside) [6] Group 2: SanDisk (SNDK) - SanDisk has seen its stock rise nearly 500% over the past three months, with shares jumping over 15% on November 7 following earnings [8] - Revenue for SanDisk rose by 23% to $2.31 billion, exceeding estimates of $2.12 billion, and adjusted EPS of $1.22 surpassed expectations by 64 cents [8]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q1, revenues surged more than 58% year-over-year, reaching $533 million, the highest revenue in a single quarter in the company's history [6][17] - Non-GAAP gross margin improved to 39.4%, up 160 basis points sequentially and 660 basis points year-on-year [17] - Non-GAAP operating margin was 18.7%, up 370 basis points sequentially and 1,570 basis points year-on-year [17] - Cash and short-term investments increased by $245 million to $1.12 billion [19] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Components revenue was $379 million, up 18% sequentially and 64% year-over-year, driven by strong demand in data centers [10][19] - Systems revenue was $155 million, down 4% sequentially but up 47% year-over-year, with cloud transceiver revenue remaining flat [13][19] - The company initiated CW laser deliveries for 800-gig transceiver manufacturers, marking a significant milestone [11] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Over 60% of total revenue now comes from cloud and AI infrastructure, indicating a shift in market demand [7] - Strong growth in data center interconnect components, with shipments of narrow linewidth laser assemblies for DCI transmission growing over 70% year-over-year [12] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company has reorganized to report financials as a single reportable segment, allowing for quicker responses to market changes [9] - Future growth is driven by cloud transceivers, optical circuit switches, and co-packaged optics, with expectations to surpass $600 million in quarterly revenue earlier than previously targeted [8][15] - The company aims to leverage its strong market position in optics for scaling AI compute and is entering a period of sustained expansion [15] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in sustained growth driven by the accelerating adoption of AI and optical technologies [15] - The demand-supply imbalance for EML products has increased, with demand outstripping supply by 25%-30% [77] - The company is focused on long-term agreements with key customers to ensure sustainable business growth [56] Other Important Information - The company expects to see significant increases in shipment volumes in the second half of calendar 2026 as adoption accelerates [12] - The guidance for Q2 anticipates net revenue in the range of $630-$670 million, with a midpoint representing a new all-time quarterly revenue record [20][21] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you discuss the confidence in sustaining growth in transceivers? - Management highlighted improved execution and participation in early customer ramps, expecting to ship 1.6T transceivers by mid-next year, contributing to a layering effect in revenue [27][28] Question: What does the 40% increase in capacity for data comm chips mean for revenue? - The increase in capacity is expected to enhance output and shift the product mix towards higher-margin 200G EMLs, contributing positively to revenue [30][31] Question: How is the continuous wave laser output being targeted? - The CW laser is being positioned for internal transceivers, with expectations for full production by mid-2026 [37] Question: What is the competitive environment for narrow linewidth lasers? - The company holds a strong market share in narrow linewidth lasers, with challenges in ramping capacity but a solid competitive position [40][41] Question: How is the supply-demand balance for EML products changing? - The demand-supply mismatch has worsened, with a 25%-30% shortfall relative to customer demand, despite increased supply [77][78] Question: What are the key milestones for the OCS business? - The hardware is generally qualified, with ongoing work on software qualification expected to be completed by mid-2026 [92]

Summary of Accelink's 3Q25 Earnings Call Company Overview - **Company**: Accelink (Ticker: 002281.SZ) - **Sector**: Technology - **Date of Earnings Report**: 24 October 2025 Key Financial Highlights - **Revenue Growth**: - 3Q25 revenue increased by 45.0% year-over-year (y-y) and 8.9% quarter-over-quarter (q-q) to CNY 3.29 billion - 9M25 revenue growth was 58.65% y-y, with earnings growth at 54.95% y-y [1][2] - **Earnings Performance**: - 3Q25 earnings increased by 35.8% y-y and 56.0% q-q, reaching CNY 347 million - Adjusted operating margin improved by 0.2 percentage points (pp) y-y and 4.8 pp q-q [1][5] - **Gross Margin**: - Gross margin decreased by 1 pp y-y but increased by 3.9 pp q-q due to a better product mix in the optical transceivers sector [1][5] - **Operating Cash Flow**: - Strong performance with operating cash flow reaching CNY 1.08 billion in 9M25, a 206.64% increase y-y [1] Market and Industry Insights - **Demand Trends**: - Notable uptick in demand for optical transceivers in the global Automatic Identification and Data Capture (AIDC) market - Large Chinese Cloud Service Providers (CSPs) are investing in AI infrastructure, positioning Accelink to benefit from this trend [2] - **Future Growth Projections**: - Estimated 53% revenue compound annual growth rate (CAGR) from the optical transceivers segment for FY25-27F, expected to contribute 49% of total revenue by FY27F [2] Investment Outlook - **Rating and Target Price**: - Maintained "Buy" rating with a target price of CNY 80, based on a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 43x FY26F earnings per share (EPS) of CNY 1.87 [2][3] - **Current Stock Valuation**: - Stock trading at 33.8x FY26F EPS, indicating potential upside [2] Risks and Challenges - **Potential Risks**: - Lower-than-expected demand for optical components from the datacom and telecom markets - Slower-than-anticipated R&D progress on optical chipsets - Increased pricing competition leading to margin dilution - Potential sanctions affecting the technology sector [12] Additional Information - **Analysts**: Bing Duan and Ethan Zhang from Nomura International (Hong Kong) Ltd. [4] - **Closing Price on Report Date**: CNY 63.23 [3]

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Summary of J.P. Morgan's Cloud Capex Outlook Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **Cloud and Datacenter Capital Expenditures (Capex)** within the **U.S. Cloud Service Providers (CSPs)** industry, particularly the **Top 4 U.S. CSPs** which include Meta, Google, Amazon, and Microsoft [1][3][8]. Key Points Capex Growth Projections - **2025 Capex Growth**: The growth expectation for datacenter capex in 2025 has been revised upwards to nearly **+60% year-over-year (y/y)**, up from a previous forecast of **+40%**. This translates to an increase of over **$100 billion** in absolute dollar terms, marking the largest annual increase to date, surpassing the previous record set in 2024 [1][3][8][21]. - **2026 Capex Growth**: For 2026, the growth rate is now anticipated to be **+30% y/y**, which represents an increase of more than **$80 billion**. This is also an upward revision from the earlier forecast of **+20%** [1][3][21]. Investment Drivers - The primary driver of this growth is the **accelerated investment in AI and related infrastructure**. All major U.S. hyperscalers are expected to show robust double-digit growth in their capex [1][3][8]. - **Tier 2 CSPs and Neoclouds**: Investments from Tier 2 CSPs and emerging neoclouds are projected to grow significantly, with an expected capex of nearly **$60 billion** in 2025, which is more than double the average spend from the Top 4 CSPs prior to 2023 [1][3][35]. Equipment Categories - **Server Investments**: High-cost servers with advanced processing units (XPUs) will continue to dominate the capex expansion in 2025 and 2026. However, there is a notable increase in spending on networking equipment, including datacenter switches and optical transceivers [1][17][31]. - **Networking Investments**: The report indicates a ramp-up in investments in networking categories, which are expected to see substantial growth alongside server investments [1][17][31]. Company Coverage - J.P. Morgan remains bullish on companies that support AI infrastructure demands, particularly in networking. Companies highlighted include: - **Arista (ANET)** - **Celestica (CLS)** - **Ciena (CIEN)** - **Coherent (COHR)** - **Lumentum (LITE)** - **Fabrinet (FN)** [1][39]. Additional Insights - The report emphasizes that the **datacenter capex** figures exclude other equipment like HVAC and non-cloud business items, focusing solely on IT equipment [7]. - The anticipated growth rates for Tier 2 and neoclouds suggest a shift in the competitive landscape, indicating that these companies are becoming increasingly significant players in the datacenter investment space [35]. Conclusion - The outlook for cloud datacenter capex is exceptionally strong, driven by AI investments and a broader base of spending from both major and emerging players in the industry. The anticipated growth rates for 2025 and 2026 reflect a robust demand for cloud infrastructure, positioning the sector for continued expansion.

Market Overview - Diamond Hill Capital reported a rebound in markets after a downturn in early April, with the Russell 3000 Index showing an approximate increase of 11% [1] - Large-cap stocks experienced the highest growth, rising just over 11%, while small-cap and mid-cap stocks gained around 8.5% each [1] - The Select Strategy portfolio returned 7.31% (net) for the quarter, underperforming compared to the Russell 3000 Index's return of 10.99% [1] Company Focus: Coherent Corp. (NYSE:COHR) - Coherent Corp. is highlighted as a significant contributor to the portfolio, benefiting from increased demand for optical transceivers in data centers [3] - The stock of Coherent Corp. saw a one-month return of 22.97% and a 52-week gain of 21.59%, closing at $107.97 per share with a market capitalization of $16.822 billion on September 29, 2025 [2] - Coherent Corp. was held by 66 hedge fund portfolios at the end of Q2 2025, an increase from 61 in the previous quarter [3] Investment Insights - While Coherent Corp. is recognized for its potential, the company suggests that certain AI stocks may offer greater upside potential with less downside risk [3] - The investor letter indicates a focus on undervalued AI stocks that could benefit from Trump-era tariffs and the trend of onshoring [3]