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太平鸟(603877):渠道、折扣调整下业绩短期承压,期待后续高质量增长
Changjiang Securities· 2025-08-26 23:30
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [7]. Core Views - In the short term, the company is expected to face pressure on performance due to channel adjustments, gradual retail improvement, and the recovery of franchise gross margins. However, with enhanced cost control, profit growth is anticipated to rebound in the future. In the long term, structural adjustments within the company are expected to significantly improve operational quality and profit elasticity. The company is shifting from profit elasticity driven by high retail growth to a more sustainable and robust profit elasticity driven by internal capabilities. The projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are estimated at 200 million, 250 million, and 280 million yuan, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 35, 28, and 25 times [2][11]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first half of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 2.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.9%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 78 million yuan, down 54.6% year-on-year, while the net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was 14 million yuan, a decline of 78.9% year-on-year. In Q2 alone, revenue was 1.23 billion yuan, a decrease of 8.2% year-on-year, and the net profit turned to a loss of 46 million yuan, a decline of 471.5% year-on-year [5][11]. Brand and Channel Performance - In Q2, most brands experienced revenue declines, with PB women's wear, men's wear, and Le Town down by 7.5%, 8.5%, and 13.8% respectively, while children's wear saw a slight increase of 0.2%. However, gross margins improved for most brands due to discount control. The revenue from franchise and online channels continued to decline year-on-year, while direct sales returned to positive growth with a 5.2% increase year-on-year in Q2 [11]. Cost and Profitability Analysis - The gross margin improved by 2.1 percentage points year-on-year in Q2 due to strict discount control. However, the net profit margin decreased by 4.7 percentage points to -3.8% due to negative operating leverage. The company’s operating cash flow for H1 was -260 million yuan, indicating tight cash flow but an improvement compared to Q1 [11][14].