17 June 2025 | 11:17AM HKT Navigating China Internet: Top AI/apps tracker: steady video-generation AI monetization; solid May engagement trends China's top AI applications maintained healthy user engagement trends in May with key investor focuses around 1) Rising use cases scenario: increasing AI adoption across to-C/to-B use cases, demonstrated by continued ramp of AI app engagement led by DeepSeek and Bytedance's Doubao, improving penetration of AI functionalities into existing app portfolios of internet ...

Core Insights - China's technology sector is expected to show resilience in H2 2025, leveraging global trade pressures to foster indigenous innovation despite facing significant U.S. tariffs and export restrictions [2] - Major Chinese tech companies are pivoting investments towards AI infrastructure and emerging technologies, with strong demand for AI outpacing supply [2] - The semiconductor industry in China has captured over 25% of the global market share in advanced packaging technologies, showcasing its competitive edge [5] Company Highlights - **NetEase**: - Demonstrated strong financial momentum with Q1 2025 gaming revenues increasing by 12.1% year over year to RMB24.0 billion and net income rising by 35% to RMB10.3 billion [9][11] - Upcoming game titles and a robust pipeline position the company for growth in the second half of 2025 [10][11] - **Alibaba**: - Reported Q4 fiscal 2025 non-GAAP earnings surged by 23% year over year to $1.73 per ADS, exceeding estimates by 16.89% [12][13] - The Cloud Intelligence segment achieved 18% revenue growth, with AI-related products maintaining triple-digit growth for seven consecutive quarters [12] - **Taiwan Semiconductor**: - Achieved Q1 2025 revenues of $25.53 billion, a 35% year-over-year increase, with net income rising by 53% to nearly $11 billion [15] - Plans to increase capital spending to between $38 and $42 billion in 2025 to meet growing AI-driven demand for advanced chips [16] - **Tencent**: - Reported Q1 revenues of RMB180 billion, a 13% year-over-year increase, with gaming division growth accelerating [17] - Integrated AI capabilities are enhancing user engagement and advertising effectiveness, positioning the company favorably in the market [18][19] Industry Trends - The robotics sector in China is advancing with innovations such as sophisticated humanoid robots, while the electric vehicle ecosystem is bolstered by companies like Zeekr and Great Wall Motor [6] - Augmented reality companies in Beijing are developing advanced AR solutions, reflecting China's strategy to lead in high-tech sectors [7] - The overall technological advancements and significant investments in development present substantial growth opportunities for investors in the Chinese tech landscape [8]

Group 1: Tencent's AI Investments and Financial Performance - Tencent's AI investments have started to yield positive results, contributing significantly to its gaming and advertising sectors, with a revenue increase of 13% year over year to 180 billion yuan ($25 billion) [1] - CEO Ma Huateng emphasized that the company is increasing spending on new AI opportunities, including the Yuanbao application and AI integration in Weixin [1][2] - The operating leverage from existing high-quality revenue streams is expected to help absorb additional costs from AI investments, leading to healthy financial performance during this investment phase [2] Group 2: Market Position and Analyst Insights - Analysts from Citi described Tencent's earnings results as "stronger-than-expected," while Morgan Stanley noted that improvements in AI advertising technology could enhance Tencent's ad revenue growth compared to peers [2] - Tencent benefits from valuable user data from Weixin and WeChat, which had 1.4 billion monthly active users as of March [2] - Despite concerns over American tariffs affecting Chinese tech stocks, Tencent's revenue primarily comes from China, and its stock has risen 25% this year [3] Group 3: Broader AI Trends in Financial Services - The rise of large transaction models (LTMs) in generative AI is noted as a potential game-changer for security and efficiency in financial services [4] - Traditional machine learning models have been used by payment players and banks to enhance transaction processing, but their limitations are prompting a shift towards transformer-based models, which have shown transformative effects in natural language processing [5]

Core Viewpoint - Tencent is expected to report first-quarter 2025 earnings on May 13, with earnings estimated at 88 cents per share, reflecting an 18.92% year-over-year growth, and revenues projected at $24.26 billion, indicating an 8.89% year-over-year increase [1]. Group 1: Earnings Performance - Tencent has surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings in each of the last four quarters, with an average surprise of 11.65% [2]. - The upcoming earnings report is anticipated to reflect the impact of various ongoing initiatives across gaming, advertising, fintech, and AI infrastructure [3]. Group 2: Gaming Sector - The domestic gaming sector is expected to show continued momentum from Q4 2024, supported by popular titles such as Honor of Kings and contributions from new releases like DnF Mobile and Delta Force [4]. - All five of Tencent's highest-grossing games recorded year-over-year daily active user increases during the 2025 Spring Festival, indicating sustained user engagement [4]. - Deferred revenue, which grew by a high-teens percentage year-over-year in 2024, is expected to positively impact the top line for the quarter [4]. Group 3: Advertising Services - Marketing services revenues increased by 17% year-over-year in Q4 2024, driven by AI enhancements and strong demand from various sectors including e-commerce and healthcare [5]. - Video Accounts Marketing Services revenues grew over 60% year-over-year, while Weixin Search ad revenue more than doubled, suggesting continued advertising growth [5]. Group 4: FinTech Sector - In the fintech segment, commercial payment revenues were flat year-over-year in the previous quarter, with transaction volumes rising but average selling prices under pressure [6]. - This trend is expected to continue in Q1 2025, with improving consumer demand but ongoing supply-side pricing pressures [6]. Group 5: AI Development - The AI-native application Yuanbao saw a 20-fold increase in daily active users from February to March, although revenue impact in Q1 is expected to be limited due to GPU supply constraints [7]. - Tencent significantly increased its investment in AI development in Q4 2024, with a 21% year-over-year rise in R&D expenses and a 421% increase in capital expenditures [8]. - The company plans to further boost R&D spending and capital expenditures in 2025 to enhance AI infrastructure and model development [8].