Macquarie Equity Research 26 January 2026 China Internet Entering a dramatic stage of agentic reform Key Points Chinese New Year: Navigating a volatile transition China's internet sector is in a period of sharp transition as it reshapes online traffic flows and hierarchy. While we remain confident in China's long-term AI sovereignty, the upcoming Chinese New Year holiday could mark a key point where macroeconomic weakness meets aggressive reform. In this report, we introduce a Three-Level Traffic Order (3LT ...

Flash | Baidu – On the evening of January 25, Baidu also announced the launch of its Spring Festival red-envelope campaign, valued at a total of Rmb500mn, with the largest- value single red envelope at Rmb10,000. In addition to distributing red envelopes through AI interactions and card-collecting activities within the Baidu App, the company will also integrate its Ernie Assistant into the campaign. Users will be guided to participate and claim rewards within the AI application through various creative Spri ...

January 8, 2026 04:26 PM GMT Investor Presentation | Asia Pacific M Foundation China Internet and Other Services – China's AI Path Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+ Gary Yu Equity Analyst Gary.Yu@morganstanley.com +852 2848-6918 Lydia Lin Equity Analyst Lydia.Lin@morganstanley.com +852 2239-1572 China Internet and Other Services Asia Pacific Industry View Attractive Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business with companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus is on the **China Internet and AI industry**, particularly the competitive landscape of AI chatbots and their global aspirations. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **AI Adoption and Competition**: The rapid adoption of AI is expected to intensify competition among Chinese AI players in 2026, covering areas from AI cloud infrastructure to chatbots and applications [1][3][5]. 2. **Global Market Penetration**: Chinese Internet and AI companies are increasingly looking to penetrate global markets to export AI technology and explore monetization opportunities, as direct-to-consumer monetization in China is challenging [1][5]. 3. **ByteDance's Position**: ByteDance's AI assistant, Dola, along with Doubao, has achieved a combined total of approximately **250 million MAUs**, ranking it as the **3 AI chat globally** [1][3][11]. 4. **Dola's Growth in Emerging Markets**: Dola has shown significant growth in emerging markets, with MAUs in Indonesia rising from **7.8 million in July 2025 to 17.4 million in November 2025**, and in the Philippines from **9 million to 12.5 million** in the same period [4][30]. 5. **Competitive Landscape in China**: In China, Doubao leads with **197 million MAUs** and **54 million DAUs** as of October, followed by DeepSeek and Tencent's Yuanbao [2][8]. Additional Important Insights 1. **Challenges in Monetization**: Many AI chatbots face difficulties in charging subscription fees directly from consumers, prompting a shift towards global markets for potential revenue [5][49]. 2. **Potential Threats to Local Services**: If Dola becomes a dominant AI gateway in emerging markets, it could challenge the relevance of local e-commerce platforms like Shopee and superapps like Grab [5][49]. 3. **Dola's Compliance Issues**: Dola, which was recently rebranded from Cici, faces compliance challenges due to its need to access local content and understand cultural nuances, opting for widely accepted overseas models like GPT and Gemini instead of Doubao's LLM [48][46]. 4. **Future Monitoring**: Continuous monitoring of both Doubao and Dola is essential to assess their impact on the competitive landscape in China and globally, particularly regarding their potential challenges to major players like Alibaba, Tencent, and Baidu [50]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the competitive dynamics and growth opportunities within the AI chatbot sector, particularly for Chinese companies like ByteDance.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus is on the **China Internet and AI industry**, particularly the competitive landscape of AI chatbots and their global aspirations. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **AI Adoption and Competition**: The rapid adoption of AI is expected to intensify competition among Chinese AI players in 2026, covering areas from AI cloud infrastructure to chatbots and applications [1][3] 2. **Global Market Penetration**: Chinese Internet and AI companies are increasingly looking to penetrate global markets to export AI technology and explore monetization opportunities, as direct-to-consumer monetization in China is challenging [1][5] 3. **ByteDance's Position**: ByteDance's AI assistant, Dola, along with Doubao, has achieved a combined total of approximately **250 million MAUs**, ranking it as the **3 AI chat globally** [1][3][11] 4. **Dola's Growth in Emerging Markets**: Dola has shown significant growth in emerging markets, with MAUs in Indonesia rising from **7.8 million** in July 2025 to **17.4 million** in November 2025, and in the Philippines from **9 million** to **12.5 million** in the same period [4][31] 5. **Competitive Landscape in China**: In China, Doubao leads with **197 million MAUs** and **54 million DAUs** as of October, followed by DeepSeek and Tencent's Yuanbao [2][8] Additional Important Insights 1. **Challenges in Monetization**: Many AI chatbots face difficulties in charging subscription fees directly from consumers, prompting a shift towards global markets [5][48] 2. **Potential Threats to Local Services**: If Dola becomes a dominant AI gateway in emerging markets, it could challenge the relevance of local e-commerce platforms like Shopee and superapps like Grab [5][48] 3. **Dola's Compliance Issues**: Dola, which was previously known as Cici, faces compliance challenges due to its need to access local content and understand cultural nuances, leading it to utilize widely accepted overseas models like GPT and Gemini instead of Doubao's LLM [47][45] 4. **Future Monitoring**: Continuous monitoring of the progress of Doubao and Dola is essential to assess their impact on the competitive landscape in both China and global markets, particularly regarding their potential challenges to major players like Alibaba, Tencent, and Baidu [49]

Core Insights - The article highlights the significant impact of artificial intelligence (AI) on the financial performance and capital expenditure strategies of major tech companies, indicating that AI is now a critical component of their business models [3][5][14]. Group 1: Big Tech Performance - In Q3 2025, major tech companies like Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, and Apple reported strong revenue growth driven by AI and cloud services, with double-digit revenue gains [3][5]. - Microsoft experienced an 18% year-on-year revenue increase to $77.7 billion, largely due to demand for AI-enhanced Azure services, with capital expenditure reaching nearly $35 billion [9]. - Alphabet's revenue rose 16% to $102.3 billion, benefiting from enterprise AI demand, and it increased its 2025 capex guidance to $91–93 billion [9]. - Amazon's capital expenditure for the first three quarters of 2025 was $89.9 billion, with AWS revenue growing 20% in Q3, marking its fastest growth in years [9]. - Meta reported a 26% year-on-year revenue growth, with Q3 capex reaching $19.4 billion, as it plans to invest heavily in AI infrastructure [9]. - Apple achieved a record $94 billion in revenue for its June quarter, emphasizing significant growth in AI investments across its devices and services [9]. Group 2: Alibaba and Tencent's Strategies - Alibaba reported a 5% year-on-year revenue increase to RMB 247,795 million (US$34,769 million) but faced a 53% decline in net income to RMB 20,612 million (US$2,893 million) due to heavy investments [7]. - Tencent's revenue rose 15% year-on-year to RMB 192.9 billion (about $27 billion), with net profit increasing by 19%, showcasing resilience amid economic challenges [8]. - Tencent's capital expenditure in Q3 2025 was approximately RMB 13 billion (~$1.8 billion), down 24% from the previous year, indicating a more conservative spending approach compared to U.S. counterparts [13]. - Tencent's advertising revenue surged 21% year-on-year, attributed to AI-driven improvements in ad targeting and creativity [10]. Group 3: AI Infrastructure Investment - Big Tech companies are treating AI and cloud infrastructure as foundational investments, with capital expenditure profiles resembling national-scale infrastructure projects [6]. - The article notes a divergence in strategies, with U.S. firms focusing on building extensive AI infrastructure while Tencent emphasizes integrating AI into its existing ecosystem [14][19]. - The heavy spending on AI infrastructure by U.S. companies is solidifying their market dominance, creating a competitive landscape where smaller players may struggle to keep pace [14]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The article suggests that the AI investment cycle is global and shows no signs of slowing, with companies needing to demonstrate that their AI investments can drive sustainable growth [17][18]. - The contrasting strategies of U.S. tech giants and Chinese companies like Alibaba and Tencent may shape the future of AI monetization and efficiency [19].

Tencent Holdings Research Summary Company Overview - **Company**: Tencent Holdings - **Sector**: Internet/e-Commerce - **Description**: Tencent is a leading provider of messaging services, value-added services, online games, advertising, and e-commerce in China. The social app Weixin has over 1 billion domestic accounts, and Tencent also offers enterprise services like Cloud and IT solutions [11][12]. Key Financial Metrics - **3Q25 Net Income**: Adjusted net income was RMB 70.6 billion, up 18% YoY, exceeding consensus by 7% [16]. - **Revenue**: 3Q25 revenue reached RMB 192.9 billion, a 15% YoY increase [16]. - **Capex**: 3Q25 capital expenditure was RMB 13 billion, below consensus due to chip availability issues [1]. - **2025E Revenue**: Expected to be RMB 750 billion, with a gross profit of RMB 423 billion [15]. Investment Rating and Price Objective - **Rating**: BUY - **Price Objective**: HKD 780, based on a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation [3][17]. Growth Drivers - **AI Strategy**: Tencent is focusing on AI applications, integrating AI-supported use cases into Weixin. The company is expected to prioritize internal chip use over external sales due to supply constraints [1]. - **Gaming Segment**: Anticipated growth from titles like Delta Force, Valorant Mobile, and Honor of Kings (HoK) [2]. - **Advertising Revenue**: Growth expected from Video Account and Weixin search ads, which have higher gross margins [2]. Financial Projections - **2025E Non-IFRS Diluted EPS**: Expected to be RMB 28.13, reflecting a 18.8% YoY increase [4][15]. - **2026E Revenue**: Projected to reach RMB 821 billion, with a gross profit margin of 57% [15]. - **Free Cash Flow**: Expected to be RMB 145.9 billion in 2025 [9]. Risks and Challenges - **Competition**: Intensifying competition in the gaming and advertising sectors [3]. - **Regulatory Uncertainty**: Potential regulatory challenges in fintech and gaming [18]. - **Macroeconomic Factors**: A weaker macro environment could impact advertising and fintech revenues [18]. Additional Insights - **Market Position**: Tencent maintains a strong market leadership position across various segments, with significant growth potential in monetization through Weixin [12]. - **AI and E-commerce Potential**: The company has substantial upside potential from AI applications and e-commerce growth [12]. - **Debt Management**: Net debt is projected to decrease significantly by 2027, indicating improved financial health [9]. Conclusion Tencent Holdings is positioned for continued growth driven by its strong market presence, innovative AI strategies, and robust gaming and advertising segments. However, investors should remain cautious of competitive pressures and regulatory risks that could impact future performance.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call on China's Internet Sector Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the **China Internet Sector**, particularly trends in **AI application and monetization** within the industry [2][3]. Core Insights 1. **AI Commercialization Acceleration**: - The call reaffirmed that **cloud services** and **advertising** are the most visible areas for AI monetization. AI chatbots are gradually integrating transactional functions, which could enhance advertising and commerce [2][3]. 2. **Cloud Demand Growth**: - AI adoption has significantly boosted cloud demand in China, especially after the introduction of **DeepSeek**. The demand is primarily driven by model training, deployment, and the rollout of AI applications. Despite LLMs not generating substantial direct revenue yet, Chinese Cloud Service Providers (CSPs) can cross-sell traditional cloud services, potentially leading to robust revenue growth in 2026 [3][4]. 3. **AI Chatbots and Monetization**: - AI chatbots are showing early signs of integrating transactional functions, similar to trends seen internationally. For instance, Bytedance's **Doubao** chatbot is embedding product recommendations in search results, linking users to e-commerce platforms. This trend is expected to accelerate consumer-facing monetization through ads and transactions [4][5]. 4. **Internet Leaders' Strategies**: - **ByteDance**: Rapid revenue growth in its cloud business, with increasing traction in its chatbot offerings. - **Tencent**: AI has become strategically important, enhancing traffic for its chatbot **Yuanbao**. - **Alibaba**: Focused on accelerating cloud revenue, with potential for deeper integration of AI into its commerce ecosystem. - **Baidu**: Developing a full-stack AI footprint, with its AI capabilities improving [5]. Emerging Opportunities - The expert identified several emerging opportunities in AI marketing, AI-hardware integration, and multimodality for advertising and content production, expected to grow into 2026 [2][3]. Risks and Challenges - Key risks to the China internet sector include: - Evolving competitive landscape and intensifying competition - Rapid technological changes and shifting user preferences - Uncertain monetization strategies - Rising costs related to traffic acquisition and content promotion - Regulatory changes [7]. Conclusion - The insights from the call suggest a positive outlook for AI monetization in China's internet sector, particularly through cloud services and advertising, while also highlighting the need for companies to navigate various risks and challenges effectively [2][3][7].

Core Insights - Alibaba Group Holding is redesigning its flagship mobile AI app to resemble OpenAI's ChatGPT, aiming to enhance its competitive position against major Asian rivals [2][4] - The app will be renamed Qwen and will integrate more agent-style capabilities to facilitate shopping across Alibaba's services [3][6] - The long-term goal is to develop Qwen into a fully capable AI agent, with plans for an international version and significant internal resources allocated for the redesign [5][9] E-commerce Integration - Alibaba is leveraging its traditional strength in e-commerce to attract users to the revamped Qwen app, especially as the e-commerce landscape shifts towards AI-driven models [6][7] - The app will initially remain free, with potential for future monetization as the user base grows [7] Payment Infrastructure - Alibaba is overhauling cross-border payment systems within its $35 billion e-commerce ecosystem, focusing on tokenization to enhance global settlement processes [8][9] - A new payment network utilizing a tokenized, stablecoin-like system for international B2B transactions is expected to launch by the end of the year [9] AI Growth and Performance - Alibaba has reported significant growth in AI-related offerings, with its cloud business becoming the fastest-growing division [10]

Core Insights - Tencent Holdings reported a 15% increase in third-quarter revenue, reaching 192.9 billion yuan (US$27.1 billion), compared to 167.2 billion yuan in the same period last year [1] - Net profit rose by 19% to 63.1 billion yuan, exceeding the Bloomberg analyst estimate of 55.9 billion yuan [1] Revenue and Profit Performance - Revenue for the third quarter was 192.9 billion yuan, a 15% increase year-over-year from 167.2 billion yuan [1] - Net profit increased to 63.1 billion yuan, a 19% rise compared to the previous year [1] AI Investments and Growth - The company's strategic investments in AI are enhancing business areas such as ad targeting and game engagement, as well as improving efficiency in coding and production [3] - Tencent has experienced over a 20% increase in research and development efficiency due to AI-powered automation [5] - 90% of Tencent's engineers are utilizing the CodeBuddy IDE, which is powered by the Hunyuan foundational model [5] AI Model Development - Tencent has open-sourced more than 30 new AI models this year, including leading 3D generation models and models simulating the physical world [6] - The Hunyuan Image 3.0 model launched in September has surpassed Google DeepMind's Nano Banana as the leading image generation model [6] User Engagement with AI Applications - The AI chatbot app Yuanbao had 32 million monthly active users in September, making it the third most used AI app in China [7]