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对二甲苯:供增需减,但终端需求改善,短期震荡市,PTA:弱现实强预期,月差反套MEG:区间震荡市,关注终端需求改善
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-08-18 05:08
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - PX presents a short - term volatile market with increased supply and decreased demand, but terminal demand improvement may limit the downside space of the single - side price [1][6] - PTA is in a situation of weak reality and strong expectation, and the 9 - 1 month - spread reverse arbitrage is recommended, with the single - side turning into a volatile market pattern [1][7] - MEG is in a range - bound market, with the 9 - 1 month - spread operating in the range of - 50 to 0 and 1 - 5 reverse arbitrage, and attention should be paid to the improvement of terminal demand [1][7] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Dynamics - PX: On August 15, the PX price rebounded slightly, with the valuation at 827 dollars/ton, up 3 dollars from the 14th. South Korea's PX exports in July decreased by 2% month - on - month to 407,545 tons due to tariff uncertainties and weak demand from downstream PTA producers. Exports to the US dropped by 52% in July compared to June, while exports to China increased by 10% month - on - month to 373,458 tons [3][4] - PTA: On August 15, the PTA spot price rose to 4,660 yuan/ton [4] - MEG: Two MEG plants in East China with a total capacity of 1.9 million tons/year have been restarted [4] - Polyester: On August 15, the sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were generally weak, with an average sales rate of around 40%. The sales of direct - spun polyester staple fiber improved moderately, with an average sales rate of 62% [5] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of p - xylene, PTA, and MEG is all 0, indicating a neutral view [6] Views and Suggestions - PX: The demand is improving, and the downside space of the single - side price may be limited. The domestic supply is abundant, while the supply in Japan and South Korea has a co - existence of restarts and overhauls, with little impact on production. Although PX supply increases and demand decreases, the improvement in terminal demand may limit the single - side decline [6] - PTA: The demand improves month - on - month, and the single - side turns into a volatile market. The 9 - 1 month - spread reverse arbitrage is maintained. The polyester operating rate is increasing, and the supply side is relatively stable [7] - MEG: Supply and demand both increase, and the single - side of ethylene glycol is in a volatile market. The 9 - 1 month - spread operates in the range of - 50 to 0, and 1 - 5 reverse arbitrage is recommended. The overall supply is at a high level, and the inventory is accumulating again [7][8]