加入交易理想国知识星球获取完整版PDF报告及精简版EXCEL 整理 | 对冲研投编辑组 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 新年伊始，我们搜集整理了31家机构对于大宗商品市场2026 年的策略展望，从机构一致看多，一致看空，分期显著以及其他中性四个角度，覆盖了有色、 黑色、能源、化工、农产品、软商品等多个商品板块47个交易品种，就2026年大宗商品机会与风险进行分析，希望对大家新一年的交易有所帮助。 本系列分为：一、基本金属篇；二、黑色金属篇；三、能源化工品种篇；四、农产品软商品篇。 本篇为系列第三篇，覆盖能源化工品种。 开年必读 | 31家投研团队、47个期货品种的观点、共性逻辑、分歧点都在这了（一） 开年必读 | 31家投研团队、47个期货品种的观点、共性逻辑、分歧点都在这了（二） | | 一致看多品种 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 机构观点高度统一看涨，核心逻辑共振。 | | | 品种 | 代表性机构观点 | 核心逻辑 | | 货(偏多)、中信建投期货(强势偏多)、融达期货(相对乐观)。 PX(对二甲苯) | 明确偏多/强势:紫金天风期货(偏强)、五矿期货(明确偏多)、一德 ...

基础化工行业 行业研究 | 行业周报 PX 价格上涨触发石化企业行情，行业存长 期修复机遇 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 ⚫ 炼化行业我们推荐相关龙头企业中国石化(600028，买入)、荣盛石化(002493，买 入)、恒力石化(600346，买入)；同时，我们持续看好化工各子行业景气复苏机遇， 如 MDI 龙头：万华化学(600309，买入) ；PVC 行业，相关企业包括：中泰化学 (002092，未评级)、新疆天业(600075，未评级)、氯碱化工(600618，未评级)、天 原股份(002386，未评级)。以及景气度持续性受储能高速增长拉动的磷化工中相关 标的包括：川恒股份(002895，未评级)、云天化(600096，未评级)等。草酸行业 中，建议关注：华鲁恒升(600426，买入)、华谊集团(600623，买入)、万凯新材 (301216，买入)。 风险提示 ⚫ 需求不及预期；海外市场供需情况变化；油价大幅波动。 国家/地区 中国 行业 基础化工行业 报告发布日期 2026 年 01 月 04 日 看好（维持） | 倪吉 | 执业证书编号：S0860517120003 | | --- | --- | ...

Group 1 - Recent price increases in PX and PTA futures have drawn significant market attention, with PX futures reaching a high of 7618 yuan/ton and PTA futures surpassing 5300 yuan/ton, both marking nearly one-year highs [1] - Rongsheng Petrochemical, as one of the largest PX and PTA producers globally, holds a leading position with a PX capacity of 10.4 million tons, accounting for approximately 24% of the national total [1] - The PTA production capacity in China is highly concentrated, with the top three companies holding about 52% of the total capacity, and Yisheng Petrochemical, a joint venture involving Rongsheng, being the largest PTA producer with a capacity of 2.15 million tons [1] Group 2 - The industry has experienced significant expansion since 2019, with production capacity doubling from 46.69 million tons to over 94.7 million tons by 2025, but no new capacity is expected in 2026, easing supply pressures [1][2] - As of December, PTA inventory levels are low, and the overall market fundamentals remain stable, with a decrease in PTA operating rates from 83.7% to around 78.8% since late October [2] - Rongsheng Petrochemical is actively transitioning towards high-value chemical new materials, with its subsidiary making progress in fine chemicals and new materials, reflecting a strong performance with a net profit of 286 million yuan in Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 1427.94% [2] Group 3 - The outlook for 2026 indicates no new PTA capacity and concentrated PX capacity additions in the second half, leading to an improved supply-demand balance [3] - The industry is shifting focus from capacity expansion to enhancing efficiency and transformation, as emphasized by a joint policy from six departments, which is expected to accelerate market share concentration towards leading companies [3] - Rongsheng Petrochemical's advanced capacity advantages are being amplified, positioning the company at the forefront of the new industry cycle [3]

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in domestic PX (para-xylene) and PTA (purified terephthalic acid) futures prices is attributed to multiple favorable factors, including global energy restructuring, optimized supply capacity, and ongoing industrial policy support [1][3]. Group 1: Price Trends - On December 26, PX futures rose by 4% to a peak of 7618 yuan/ton, while PTA futures surpassed 5300 yuan/ton, both reaching nearly one-year highs [1]. - The PX industry chain is becoming a significant profit breakthrough point in the refining sector, with expectations of high profitability due to limited supply growth and recovering demand [4]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Global PX capacity is expected to see no new additions in 2024 and 2025, with new projects planned for late 2026, creating a supply gap in the first half of 2026 [4]. - The current PX industry capacity utilization rate has exceeded 85%, indicating limited supply elasticity [4]. - The textile and apparel sectors in China and the U.S. may experience a replenishment wave in 2026, further driving demand for PX and its downstream products [4]. Group 3: Industry Structure - The domestic PX and PTA industries exhibit significant concentration, with the top three PX producers accounting for 54% of total capacity by the end of 2025 [6]. - Major PX producers include Rongsheng Petrochemical (1040 million tons), Sinopec (750 million tons), and PetroChina (630 million tons) [7]. - The PTA industry also shows high concentration, with the top three companies holding 52% of total capacity, led by Yisheng Petrochemical (2150 million tons) [8]. Group 4: Market Performance - Leading companies in the PX and PTA sectors have seen their stock prices rise significantly, with Rongsheng Petrochemical, Hengyi Petrochemical, and Hengli Petrochemical experiencing increases of 17.26%, 21.63%, and 15.42% respectively over the past two weeks [9]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The supply-demand landscape for PX and PTA is expected to continue optimizing into 2026, with no new PTA capacity and a focus on existing competition [10]. - The "anti-involution" policy is likely to lead to a contraction in supply, further improving the industry structure [10]. - Companies with integrated "crude oil-aromatic-PTA-polyester" supply chains, such as Rongsheng Petrochemical, are positioned to benefit significantly from the improving industry cycle [10].

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in domestic PX (para-xylene) and PTA (purified terephthalic acid) futures prices is attributed to multiple favorable factors, including global energy restructuring, optimized supply capacity, and ongoing industrial policy support [5][6]. Group 1: Price Trends - On December 23, PX futures surpassed 7300 yuan/ton, while PTA futures exceeded 5000 yuan/ton, both reaching nearly 10-month highs [1]. - The PX industry chain is becoming a significant profit breakthrough point for the refining sector, with expectations of high profitability due to limited supply growth and recovering demand [6]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Global PX capacity is expected to see no new additions in 2024 and 2025, with new projects planned for late 2026, creating a supply gap in the first half of 2026 [6][11]. - The current PX industry capacity utilization rate has risen to over 85%, indicating limited supply elasticity [6]. - The textile and apparel sectors in China and the U.S. may experience a synchronized inventory replenishment in 2026, further boosting demand for PX and PTA [7]. Group 3: Industry Structure and Market Leaders - The domestic PX and PTA industries exhibit significant concentration, with the top three companies holding 54% of the total PX capacity and 52% of the total PTA capacity by the end of 2025 [8][9]. - Major players include Rongsheng Petrochemical, Sinopec, and PetroChina in the PX sector, and Yisheng Petrochemical, Hengli Petrochemical, and Xin Fengming in the PTA sector [9][10]. Group 4: Market Outlook - The supply-demand landscape for PX and PTA is expected to continue optimizing into 2026, with a generally optimistic market outlook [11]. - The absence of new PTA capacity will lead to a focus on existing capacity, potentially accelerating the exit of high-cost older capacities [11]. - Companies with integrated "crude oil-aromatic-PTA-polyester" supply chains, such as Rongsheng Petrochemical, are positioned to benefit significantly from the improving industry cycle [11].

Report Title - Polyester Weekly Report (2025/12/13) [1] Report Core Viewpoints - PX: Currently at a neutral valuation level, with expectations of slight inventory accumulation in December. Consider opportunistic long positions on dips [11]. - PTA: In the short - term, it is in a de - stocking phase, but the upside is limited. As the approach to January nears, processing fees may face pressure. Look for opportunistic long positions based on expectations [12]. - MEG: The port inventory accumulation cycle will continue, and there is an expectation of further profit compression and load reduction in the medium - term. Be wary of potential price rebounds due to increased unexpected maintenance [13]. Section Summaries 1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **PX**: Price showed a weakening trend last week, with a decline in futures and spot prices. Supply side: China's load decreased, and overseas plants had some adjustments. Demand side: PTA load remained flat. Inventory is expected to accumulate slightly in December. Valuation is at a neutral level, and it is recommended to look for long - entry opportunities on dips [11]. - **PTA**: Prices also weakened last week. Supply side: Load remained unchanged, and maintenance volume stayed at a high level. Demand side: Polyester load declined slightly. Inventory is expected to continue decreasing. Processing fees are expected to face pressure later, and consider long - entry opportunities based on expectations [12]. - **MEG**: Prices dropped significantly last week. Supply side: Load decreased, and unexpected maintenance increased. Demand side: Polyester load declined. Inventory is expected to continue accumulating. Valuation is relatively low, and be cautious of price rebounds caused by increased maintenance [13]. 2. Spot and Futures Market - **PX**: Basis fluctuated, and monthly spreads strengthened. Trading volume and open interest data are presented in relevant charts [31][34]. - **PTA**: Basis and 1 - 5 spreads showed certain changes. Trading volume and open interest data are provided [43][45]. - **MEG**: Basis weakened, and monthly spreads were weak. Trading volume and open interest data are available [55][62]. 3. PX Fundamentals - **Supply**: Capacity has increased in some years, and the current load is at a high level [76][79]. - **Import**: Import volume decreased slightly in October [83]. - **Inventory**: Slight inventory accumulation in October [85]. - **Cost - profit**: PXN decreased slightly, short - process spreads widened, and naphtha spreads were strong. Aromatic - blending oil data showed a weakening trend [89][96]. 4. PTA Fundamentals - **Supply**: New production capacity has been added in recent years, and the current load is relatively low. Export data is also presented [132][135]. - **Inventory**: End - of - period inventory and other inventory - related data are provided [139]. - **Profit - valuation**: Processing fees are at a low level [141]. 5. MEG Fundamentals - **Supply**: New production capacity has been added, and the current load has decreased. Import data from different regions is shown [145][148]. - **Inventory**: Port inventory has been accumulating, and both upstream and downstream factory inventories are relatively high [157]. - **Cost**: Coal prices fluctuated weakly, ethylene prices stopped falling and rebounded, and US ethane prices weakened [168]. - **Profit**: Naphtha - based MEG profit dropped to a yearly low, and coal - based profit was significantly compressed [171]. 6. Polyester and End - users - **Polyester**: New production capacity has been put into operation. Basis: Staple fiber basis is strong, and bottle - chip basis fluctuates. Supply: Operating rate started to decline. Inventory: Filament inventory is at a low level. Profit: Filament profit weakened [185][188][191]. - **End - users**: Operating rate decreased and is lower compared to the same period last year. Orders decreased, inventory increased, and raw - material inventory decreased. Spinning and clothing domestic demand growth recovered, while exports were weak [212][219][223].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Most of the commodities in the energy and chemical sector are rated as "Cautiously Bearish", with some rated as "Bearish" or "Bearish Consolidation" [1][3][6] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall outlook for the energy and chemical market is bearish, mainly due to factors such as oversupply, geopolitical tensions, and weakening demand [1][3][6] 3. Summary by Commodity Crude Oil - **Core Viewpoint**: Cautiously bearish [1] - **Main Logic**: Supply surplus and geopolitical easing lead to weak oil prices. OPEC+ plans to expand production in November, increasing supply pressure. Entering the consumption off - season, US inventories are continuously accumulating [1] - **Strategy**: Partially take profit on short positions. Focus on the range of SC [430 - 440] [12] LPG - **Core Viewpoint**: Cautiously bearish [1] - **Main Logic**: Geopolitical speculation causes a rebound, but the cost - end oil price drags down, and the upside is pressured. There are concerns about increased transportation costs, and the basis weakens [1] - **Strategy**: Use a double - option strategy. Focus on the range of PG [4200 - 4300] [17] L (PE) - **Core Viewpoint**: Bearish consolidation [1] - **Main Logic**: Spot prices have not stopped falling, and the basis weakens significantly. New production capacity is put into operation, and supply remains loose. Demand is in the peak season, but restocking power is insufficient [21] - **Strategy**: The market maintains a contango structure. Industries should hedge at high prices. Focus on the range of L [6800 - 7000] [21] PP - **Core Viewpoint**: Bearish consolidation [1] - **Main Logic**: Cost support weakens, and the basis weakens. Post - holiday inventory reduction is slow, and supply - demand remains loose. There is high inventory reduction pressure in the future [26] - **Strategy**: The market maintains a contango structure. Industries should hedge at high prices. Focus on the range of PP [6500 - 6700] [26] PVC - **Core Viewpoint**: Bearish consolidation [1] - **Main Logic**: Short - term device maintenance leads to a slight reduction in social inventory, but supply is strong and demand is weak. New production capacity will be released, and there is uncertainty in export anti - dumping duties [30] - **Strategy**: Treat the short - term rebound with caution and take profit on short positions. Focus on the range of V [4600 - 4800] [30] PX - **Core Viewpoint**: Cautiously bearish [1] - **Main Logic**: Supply - demand is expected to be loose, and the oil price is under pressure. The PXN spread is relatively high this year, and the short - process PX - MX spread is also high [33] - **Strategy**: Take profit on short positions at low prices and look for opportunities to short at high prices. Focus on the range of PX [6310 - 6400] [34] PTA - **Core Viewpoint**: Cautiously bearish [1] - **Main Logic**: Supply - side start - up load increases, and demand has a "Silver October" consumption peak expectation. The cost - end oil price drops, and the processing fee is low [37] - **Strategy**: Take profit on short positions at low prices and look for opportunities to short at high prices. Focus on the range of TA [4400 - 4460] [38] MEG - **Core Viewpoint**: Bearish [1] - **Main Logic**: Domestic devices increase production, overseas devices change little. Terminal consumption improves in the short term but is under pressure in the long term. New device production and inventory accumulation [41] - **Strategy**: Hold short positions carefully and look for opportunities to short on rebounds. Focus on the range of EG [4020 - 4090] [42] Methanol - **Core Viewpoint**: Cautiously bearish in the short - term, bullish in the long - term [1] - **Main Logic**: The US tariff policy is short - term bearish. Supply pressure is large, demand is improving, and inventory is accumulating. Cost support is stabilizing [46] - **Strategy**: Hold short positions carefully and look for opportunities to go long on the 01 contract at low prices. Focus on the range of MA [2280 - 2320] [48] Urea - **Core Viewpoint**: Cautiously bearish [1] - **Main Logic**: Supply is relatively loose, domestic demand is weak, and exports are relatively good. Inventory is accumulating, and cost support exists [51] - **Strategy**: The fundamentals are weak, but the valuation is not high. Pay attention to the Indian urea tender. Consider going long with a light position in the medium - to - long - term [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Cautiously bearish [1][7][9] - LPG: Cautiously bearish [1][12][13] - L: Bearish consolidation [1][15][18] - PP: Bearish consolidation [1][20][23] - PVC: Low - level oscillation [1][25][28] - PX: Cautiously bearish [1][32][33] - PTA: Cautiously bearish [1][36][37] - MEG: Cautiously bearish [1][40][41] - Methanol: Cautiously bearish [1][45][47] - Urea: Cautiously bearish [1][50][52] - Natural gas: Cautiously bearish [1][5][53] - Asphalt: Cautiously bearish [1][5] - Glass: Low - level oscillation [1][5] - Soda ash: Low - level oscillation [1][5] 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall energy and chemical market is under pressure due to factors such as supply - demand imbalances, cost fluctuations, and macro - economic impacts. Most products are expected to show a bearish or weak - oscillating trend, but some products may have short - term opportunities based on specific supply - demand and cost changes [1][7][32] 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: Overnight international oil prices rose, with WTI up 0.47% and Brent up 1.22%, while SC had no quote due to the holiday [6] - **Basic Logic**: OPEC+ plans to increase production in November, and the core driver is the supply surplus in the off - season, with oil prices likely to be pressured to around $60 [7] - **Fundamentals**: Supply is expected to increase as OPEC+ plans to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in November. Demand is expected to be lower than supply in 2025 - 2026. US commercial crude inventory increased in the week ending October 3 [8] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions and buy call options. Focus on the range of [470 - 485] for SC [9] LPG - **Market Review**: On September 30, the PG main contract closed at 4,295 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period. Spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China showed different changes [10][11] - **Basic Logic**: The cost side is bearish as the oil price center moves down and Saudi Arabia lowers the CP contract price. Supply is relatively sufficient, and demand has some improvement [12] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions. Focus on the range of [4150 - 4250] [13] L - **Market Review**: The L01 closing price was 7,153 yuan/ton, down 0.4%. Other related prices and positions also had corresponding changes [16] - **Basic Logic**: It mainly follows cost fluctuations. The cost support weakens as crude oil prices decline slightly during the holiday. Pay attention to post - holiday inventory accumulation [18] - **Strategy Recommendation**: It runs weakly in the short term due to cost factors. Wait for a pull - back to try long positions. Focus on the range of [7100 - 7250] [18] PP - **Market Review**: The PP2601 closing price was 6,852 yuan/ton, down 0.7%. Other related prices and positions changed accordingly [21][22] - **Basic Logic**: It follows cost fluctuations. Crude oil prices decline slightly during the holiday, while propylene is strong. Pay attention to post - holiday inventory accumulation and upstream device changes [23] - **Strategy Recommendation**: The industry can hedge at high prices. Wait for a pull - back to try long positions. Focus on the range of [6800 - 6950] [23] PVC - **Market Review**: The V2601 closing price was 4,839 yuan/ton, down 1.2%. Other related prices and positions had corresponding changes [26][27] - **Basic Logic**: The cost support weakens as crude oil and calcium carbide prices decline slightly during the holiday. Pay attention to post - holiday inventory accumulation. The low valuation limits the downside [28] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Wait for a pull - back to try long positions. Focus on the range of [4800 - 5000] [28] PX - **Market Review**: On September 30, the PX spot price was 6,624 yuan/ton, down 62 yuan/ton. Other related prices and positions changed [30][31] - **Basic Logic**: Supply - side devices are slightly increasing load, while demand - side PTA maintenance is high, leading to a loose supply - demand expectation. Macroeconomic factors also put pressure on oil prices [32] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Partially stop - profit short positions, short on rebounds, and sell call options. Focus on the range of [6490 - 6600] for PX511 [33] PTA - **Market Review**: On September 30, the PTA price in East China was 4,545 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan/ton. Other related prices and positions changed [34][35] - **Basic Logic**: Supply - side pressure may ease due to expected device maintenance. Demand has improved recently. 9 - month supply - demand was in tight balance, but it is expected to be loose in the fourth quarter [36] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Stop - profit short positions gradually after the holiday. Look for opportunities to short at high prices. Focus on the range of [4520 - 4600] for TA01 [37] MEG - **Market Review**: On September 30, the ethylene glycol spot price in East China was 4,275 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton. Other related prices and positions changed [38][39] - **Basic Logic**: Domestic devices slightly increase load, overseas devices change little. Terminal demand has short - term improvement but is under pressure in the future. There is an expected increase in supply after the holiday [40] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short positions should be gradually stopped - profit after the holiday's low - opening and rebound. Look for opportunities to short at high prices. Focus on the range of [4145 - 4210] for EG01 [41] Methanol - **Market Review**: On September 30, the methanol spot price in East China was 2,290 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton. Other related prices and positions changed [44] - **Basic Logic**: Supply - side pressure remains large as domestic devices resume production and overseas device load declines. Demand has improved, and cost support is stabilizing [45] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Look for opportunities to go long on the 01 contract at low prices. Focus on the range of [2311 - 2351] for MA01 [47] Urea - **Market Review**: On September 30, the small - particle urea spot price in Shandong was 1,600 yuan/ton. Other related prices and positions changed [48][49] - **Basic Logic**: Supply is relatively loose as enterprises resume production. Demand is weak domestically but good for exports. Inventory is accumulating, and cost support exists [50] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions cautiously. Look for long - term opportunities to go long at low prices. Focus on the range of [1640 - 1670] for UR601 [52] Natural Gas - **Basic Logic**: Supply is relatively sufficient, causing gas prices to decline. The increase in rig count and the need for winter gas storage have some impact on prices [5] Asphalt - **Basic Logic**: The cost side is bearish as oil prices decline. Supply - demand is loose, and the valuation is high. Hold short positions [1][5] Glass - **Basic Logic**: The spot price was firm before the holiday, and the basis was continuously repaired. Factory inventory has been decreasing for 3 weeks. Pay attention to downstream restocking during the peak season. The supply is under pressure, and the demand from the real - estate sector is weak [1][5] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions on the alkali - glass spread in the short term and be bearish on rebounds in the long term [5] Soda Ash - **Basic Logic**: The futures market is in a high - premium structure, and industrial hedging pressures the market. The demand for heavy soda has improved, and enterprise inventory has decreased for five consecutive weeks. Supply is expected to be loose [1][5] - **Strategy Recommendation**: The industry can hedge at high prices. Be bearish on rebounds in the long term [5]

Core Insights - The polyester industry is undergoing unprecedented profit restructuring due to global economic fluctuations and industrial adjustments, with the integration of futures and spot markets becoming crucial for stabilizing profits and ensuring operations [1] Industry Overview - The entire polyester supply chain is experiencing low profit levels, leading to increased pressure on companies. Both upstream PX and PTA producers and downstream polyester chip and weaving factories are facing challenges, with terms like "thin profits" and "high pressure" frequently mentioned by industry participants [2] - The industry is currently grappling with dual pressures of oversupply and insufficient demand, particularly during a global economic downturn, resulting in a continuous compression of processing profits across the supply chain [2][3] Profit Distribution - There is a noticeable divergence in profit distribution along the polyester supply chain, with upstream profits experiencing a brief recovery while downstream polyester product profits remain under pressure [3] - Some companies are shifting from traditional business models to explore new paths centered around the integration of futures and spot markets to address ongoing challenges [3] Risk Management Strategies - Companies are urged to build diversified hedging systems to better manage risks in a low processing fee environment. This includes dynamic inventory management, combination hedging strategies, and collaborative models with downstream clients to stabilize prices and expand processing profit margins [4] - The use of futures tools has become essential for companies to lock in future sales prices and raw material costs, helping them navigate the challenges posed by price volatility [5][6] Market Adaptation - The integration of futures tools has transitioned from being optional to a necessity for companies in the polyester industry, as they increasingly consider both spot and futures markets in their operations [7] - The high concentration of the polyester industry enhances the need for effective risk management, driving deeper application of futures tools across the supply chain [7][8] Future Outlook - The polyester industry's capacity utilization and concentration levels provide a strong self-regulating ability, with potential for production cuts to stabilize prices during loss periods [8] - Companies are encouraged to utilize futures tools to lock in prices and profits during profitable periods and to manage production levels during losses, ensuring supply stability for downstream clients [8][9]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Bearish [1] - LPG: Cautiously bearish [1] - L: Bearish continuation [1] - PP: Bearish continuation [1] - PVC: Bearish consolidation [1] - PX: Cautiously bearish [1] - PTA: Cautiously bearish [2] - MEG: Cautiously bearish [2] - Methanol: Cautiously bearish [2] - Urea: Cautiously bearish [2] - Asphalt: Cautiously bearish [3] - Glass: Bearish consolidation [3] - Soda ash: Bearish consolidation [3] 2. Report's Core Views - Crude oil: Supply surplus pressure is rising, and oil prices are trending downward. Short positions should be held [1]. - LPG: Cost - end drags, and there is pressure on the upside. Light - position short attempts are recommended [1]. - L: Short - position trend continues. Wait for a pullback to try long positions [1]. - PP: Short - position trend continues. Pay attention to the support at integer levels and try long positions on pullbacks [1]. - PVC: Fundamentals show strong supply and weak demand. Be cautious about short - chasing [1]. - PX: Supply - demand is expected to shift from tight - balance to loose. Hold short positions and sell call options [1]. - PTA: Supply - demand is expected to shift from tight - balance to loose in Q4. Hold short positions and expand processing margins on pullbacks [2]. - MEG: Supply - demand is in a tight - balance, but cost support is weakening. Hold short positions and look for high - level short - selling opportunities [2]. - Methanol: Fundamentals are weak, but look for opportunities to go long on the 01 contract at low levels [2]. - Urea: Domestic fundamentals are loose. Look for high - level short - selling opportunities on the 01 contract [2]. - Asphalt: High valuation and weak cost - end. Hold short positions [3]. - Glass: Spot prices are stable with a slight upward trend. Observe the market [3]. - Soda ash: Short - term fundamentals are less negative. Short - term bullish, medium - to long - term bearish [3] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: Overnight international oil prices dropped significantly, with WTI down 2.86%, Brent down 1.66%, and SC up 0.68% [5]. - **Basic Logic**: Geopolitical risks are controllable; OPEC+ plans to increase production in October; US oil consumption peak season ends, and demand support weakens. There is a high probability that prices will be pushed down to around $60 in the medium - to long - term [6]. - **Fundamentals**: IEA expects 2025 supply to increase by 2.7 million barrels per day; OPEC+ production in August was 42.4 million barrels per day. OPEC predicts 2025 global oil demand growth of 1.29 million barrels per day. As of September 5, US commercial crude and refined product inventories increased [7]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions. Focus on the $60 break - even point for new shale oil wells. SC focus range is [470 - 490] [8]. LPG - **Market Review**: On September 11, the PG main contract closed at 4453 yuan/ton, up 0.36% [11]. - **Basic Logic**: Upstream crude oil has supply - demand imbalance, and LPG is pressured on the upside. Supply and demand are relatively stable, with a slight increase in inventory [12]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions. PG focus range is [4400 - 4500] [13]. L - **Market Review**: The L01 closing price was 7209 yuan/ton, down 0.2%. The number of warehouse receipts increased by 29.0% [16]. - **Basic Logic**: Warehouse receipts increased significantly, and the short - position trend continues. Production is expected to recover next week, and the demand side is strengthening [17]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Wait for a pullback to try long positions. L focus range is [7150 - 7250] [17]. PP - **Market Review**: The PP2601 closing price was 6939 yuan/ton. The number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged [20]. - **Basic Logic**: Cost support is insufficient. Production is expected to decline this week, and downstream demand is entering the peak season [22]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the support at integer levels and try long positions on pullbacks. PP focus range is [6900 - 7000] [22]. PVC - **Market Review**: The V2601 closing price was 4847 yuan/ton. The number of warehouse receipts increased by 3.0% [25]. - **Basic Logic**: Fundamentals show strong supply and weak demand, with continuous inventory accumulation. Production is expected to decline next week [27]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Be cautious about short - chasing. V focus range is [4800 - 4900] [27]. PX - **Market Review**: On September 5, the PX spot price was 6781 yuan/ton, down 123 yuan/ton [30]. - **Basic Logic**: Supply - side devices are slightly increasing production, and demand is weak but expected to improve. Supply - demand is expected to shift from tight - balance to loose [30]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions and sell call options. PX511 focus range is [6680 - 6785] [31]. PTA - **Market Review**: On September 5, the PTA spot price in East China was 4585 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton [33]. - **Basic Logic**: Supply - side pressure is expected to increase in the future, while demand is showing signs of recovery. TA processing margins are low [34]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions and expand PTA processing margins on pullbacks. TA01 focus range is [4670 - 4720] [35]. MEG - **Market Review**: On September 5, the ethylene glycol spot price in East China was 4488 yuan/ton, up 32 yuan/ton [37]. - **Basic Logic**: Domestic devices are slightly increasing production, and overseas devices have little change. Demand is improving, and inventory is low. Cost support is weakening [38]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions and look for high - level short - selling opportunities. EG01 focus range is [4255 - 4300] [39]. Methanol - **Market Review**: On September 5, the methanol spot price in East China was 2310 yuan/ton, up 23 yuan/ton [40]. - **Basic Logic**: Supply - side pressure increases, demand is weak, and inventory is accumulating. Cost support is weakening [41]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Look for opportunities to go long on the 01 contract at low levels. MA01 focus range is [2370 - 2400] [42].