智通财经APP获悉，华创证券发布研报称，航空行业淡季不淡，票价转正。其背后是历史同期最高的客 座率，低增速的航班量供给和持续增长的旅客。展望后续：1)总量角度：当前供需基本盘已优于2019及 2024年；2)需求侧：结构性转好，公商务边际改善，跨境需求快于国内拉动周转;3)供给侧：存量维修拖 累+低增速引进，供给约束不断强化。行业"供需-价格"拐点已见。 华创证券主要观点如下： 一、现象讨论：从淡季不淡的价格表现说起 1、淡季不淡，9月中旬以来票价同比转正，其背后原因为何？2、客座率升至历史高位。据民航局数 据，今年9月，全民航客座率高达86.3%，为2006年有统计数据以来的同期最高值。该数字已经接近 2019年8月暑运时期的86.6%和2024年8月的86.9%。10月以来，趋势延续。3、低增速的航班量供给+持 续增长的旅客。国内航班量增速已低于1%，旅客量韧性增长。 二、行业展望："供需-价格"拐点已见 1、供需基本盘已优于2024及2019年。2024年vs 2019年：旅客周转量(包含旅客及里程)+10.3%，年末机 队数累计+13.2%，测算24年相较于19年的供需差为-2.9pct;而2025年 ...

Group 1 - The report highlights that the airline industry is experiencing a significant rebound, with ticket prices turning positive since mid-September, indicating a strong demand despite the traditional off-peak season [1][7][13] - The passenger load factor reached a historical high of 86.3% in September, the highest since 2006, and has continued to rise into October, reflecting robust demand [1][20][21] - The growth in passenger numbers is resilient, with domestic flight volume growth below 1%, while cross-border travel demand is increasing significantly [1][25][26] Group 2 - The supply-demand fundamentals are now better than in 2024 and 2019, with a 10.3% increase in passenger turnover and a 13.2% increase in fleet size projected for 2024 compared to 2019 [8][32][34] - Structural improvements in demand are noted, particularly in business travel, which has returned to an expansionary phase, and cross-border travel demand is outpacing domestic growth [2][42][48] - The supply side is constrained by maintenance issues and low growth in new aircraft deliveries, with significant recalls affecting existing fleet availability [3][56][61] Group 3 - The report indicates that the industry is at a turning point regarding supply-demand-price dynamics, with high elasticity expected as ticket prices rise [4][10][80] - Cost reductions are anticipated due to declining oil prices, which have decreased by 11% year-on-year, positively impacting airline operating costs [6][10] - Investment recommendations include a focus on major airlines such as Air China, China Southern Airlines, and China Eastern Airlines, as well as low-cost carriers like Spring Airlines, which are expected to benefit from improved operational efficiencies [6][10][80]