Company Performance - Deckers' stock fell after reporting fiscal fourth-quarter results that exceeded expectations but provided disappointing guidance [1] - The company achieved a 6.5% year-over-year revenue increase to $1.02 billion, with Ugg brand sales growing by 3.6% and Hoka sales increasing by 10% [1][2] - For fiscal 2025, overall revenue rose 16.3% to $4.99 billion, with Ugg sales up 13.1% and Hoka up 23.6% [2] Future Guidance - Management refrained from providing full-year guidance due to macroeconomic uncertainties, projecting a 9% revenue growth for fiscal 2026's first quarter [3] - Earnings per share are expected to decline due to rising costs from tariffs, freight, and increased promotional activities [3] Market Position - Deckers has gained market share from Nike, with a compound annual revenue growth rate of 19% over the last five years [4] - Hoka's revenue reached $2.23 billion in fiscal 2025, while Ugg's sales were $2.53 billion, indicating Hoka's strong position in the running category [4] Competitor Analysis - Nike has experienced a decline in revenue for several quarters, missing out on a post-pandemic boom in running [6] - However, Nike's sales in the running category grew by a mid-single-digit percentage in fiscal 2025 Q3, indicating a potential recovery [7][8] - Hoka's 10% revenue growth suggests it is still gaining market share from Nike, but analysts believe Nike may be regaining ground [9][10] Analyst Insights - Jefferies analyst Randal Konik suggests that Hoka's slowing growth may indicate a shift in market share back to Nike [10] - Jefferies has given Nike a buy rating with a price target of $115, which is approximately 85% higher than its current level [11] - Nike is currently trading at its lowest enterprise-value-to-sales multiple in 15 years, primarily due to a decline in stock price [12]

The steady fall in the share price over the last three years might have shareholders wondering if Nike will ever return to its former glory. While sales are expected to remain soft in the near term, the stock's valuation may undervalue Nike's long-term growth potential. Recent sales trends It seemed the stock was in the process of bottoming out when Elliott Hill, who worked at Nike for over 30 years, was hired as CEO in October. However, investors can't expect the stock to rebound in a year when analysts ex ...

Core Insights - Nike has reported its first financial results under the new CEO, showing revenue of $11.269 billion and net profit of $794 million, both exceeding analyst expectations [1] - The company is undergoing a transformation, with signs of improvement in inventory management and revenue recovery in key markets, particularly North America and China [2][6] Financial Performance - In the Greater China region, Nike recorded revenue of $1.733 billion and EBIT of $421 million during the quarter [2] - Nike's inventory decreased by 2% year-over-year to $7.5 billion, indicating progress in inventory management [5] - North American revenue for the third quarter was $4.864 billion, a decline of 4%, but showing improvement from previous quarters [6] Strategic Initiatives - Nike is focusing on product innovation and returning to its core athletic identity, with significant investments in marketing and product development [4][7] - The "Win Now" strategy emphasizes key markets, including China, and aims to enhance brand competitiveness and operational efficiency [6][7] Brand and Marketing - Nike's marketing expenditure increased by 8% to $1.1 billion, reflecting a renewed focus on brand storytelling and athlete narratives [7][16] - The company has re-engaged with major sports events and partnerships, including a long-term agreement with the NFL, to reinforce its presence in professional sports [17] Product Development - Recent product launches, such as the Vomero 18 and Nike Pegasus Premium, have received positive market feedback, contributing to growth in the running segment [14] - Nike's commitment to professional sports and innovation is seen as a strategic move to regain market share and enhance brand value [17][18] Leadership and Culture - The appointment of Elliott Hill as CEO marks a return to Nike's foundational values, emphasizing a balance between data-driven strategies and the company's athletic heritage [13][14] - The leadership transition aims to restore confidence in Nike's brand identity and operational direction, focusing on a consumer-centric market approach [11][13]

Core Viewpoint - Nike continues to face declining revenue and profits, with expectations for further deterioration in the upcoming fiscal fourth quarter [1][4][10] Financial Performance - Nike reported a 9% decline in sales, totaling $11.3 billion, and earnings per share dropped to $0.54, down from $0.98 a year ago [1][2] - The company anticipates mid-teens revenue decline for Q4 and a gross margin decrease of 400 to 500 basis points due to unfavorable shipment timing and new tariffs [4][11] Leadership Changes - Elliott Hill has replaced John Donahoe as CEO, aiming to refocus on retailer relationships and a pull marketing strategy [3][12] Market Segments - The running segment saw mid-single-digit growth, driven by new product launches, while overall revenue in the Asia-Pacific Latin America segment fell by 4% on a currency-neutral basis [7][8] - Performance footwear and apparel experienced growth, although this was offset by declines in sportswear and the Jordan brand [8] Strategic Outlook - Management expects headwinds from the Win Now turnaround strategy to moderate after Q4, with a potential financial recovery beginning in fiscal 2026 [5][11] - The company is working on inventory overhaul and aims to return to a full-price business model, a process expected to take several more quarters [9][14] Investor Sentiment - Despite beating analyst estimates, investor confidence remains low, with the stock hitting a five-year low and hovering around seven-year lows [2][13] - The current situation presents a potential opportunity for investors, as the margin reset and focus on retail relationships may lead to improved performance in the future [14]

Group 1: Nike - Nike's share price has fallen 50% from its previous peak, prompting a leadership change with the appointment of Elliott Hill as CEO [3][5] - Bill Ackman's Pershing Square Capital Management has been accumulating Nike shares, holding over 18 million shares worth $1.4 billion by the end of Q4 [3][4] - Despite a trailing revenue of $49 billion, Nike has faced challenges with a 9% revenue decline and a 26% drop in net income in the most recent quarter [5][4] - The stock's P/E ratio is just under 24, which is lower than the S&P 500's 29 but still within Nike's historical range [6] - Over the past decade, Nike's revenue grew at a compound annual rate of 6%, while earnings per share grew 10% [7] - Analysts predict a 10% sales decline in fiscal 2025, with a potential recovery to 2% growth in fiscal 2026 [9] Group 2: Starbucks - Starbucks has faced challenges in a cautious consumer spending environment, but its stock has risen 18% since the announcement of Brian Niccol as the new CEO [10][11] - Two billionaire fund managers, Stephen Mandel and Andreas Halvorsen, have increased their stakes in Starbucks significantly [11][12] - Starbucks generated $3.5 billion in net income on $36 billion of revenue over the last year, with a global presence of over 40,000 stores [12] - The stock's P/E ratio is currently at 36, which appears expensive compared to a forward P/E of 31 based on next year's earnings estimates [13] - Starbucks has a 10-year average annualized sales growth of 8% and earnings growth of 9% [14] - Under Niccol's leadership, Starbucks is investing in improving service speed and technology, which may enhance customer satisfaction and sales [15]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Q2 revenues decreased by 8% on a reported basis and 9% on a currency-neutral basis, primarily due to franchise management actions [32] - Gross margins declined by 100 basis points to 43.6% on a reported basis, impacted by higher markdowns and channel mix headwinds [32] - Earnings per share was reported at $0.78 [33] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - NIKE Direct revenues fell by 14%, with NIKE Digital down 21% and NIKE Stores down 2% [32] - The sport performance field of play grew year over year, while sportswear experienced a double-digit decline [37] - In North America, NIKE Direct declined 15%, with NIKE Digital down 22% and NIKE Stores down 3% [39] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Greater China, Q2 revenue declined by 11%, with NIKE Direct down 7% and wholesale down 15% [44] - EMEA revenue decreased by 10%, with NIKE Direct down 20% and NIKE Digital down 32% [42] - APLA revenue was down 2%, with NIKE Direct declining 4% and NIKE Digital down 8% [47] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to reposition the business by focusing on sport and athlete-centric strategies, emphasizing the need to leverage its strengths [12][13] - Plans include a shift towards a full-price model and reducing reliance on promotional activities [50] - The company is committed to rebuilding relationships with wholesale partners and enhancing brand marketing efforts [26][62] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged the challenges in the current macro environment but expressed optimism about the potential for growth through strategic actions [46][49] - The focus will be on creating a consumer-led marketplace and driving innovation through sport [62][99] - Management expects Q3 revenues to decline low double digits, with gross margins down approximately 300 to 350 basis points [53] Other Important Information - The company is increasing investments in brand marketing and sports marketing to support key product launches [51] - There is a commitment to clean up the marketplace and reduce aged inventory to create space for new products [50][93] - Management is optimistic about the upcoming product pipeline and the potential for returning to growth [79][90] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you elaborate on the relationships with retail partners and earning back shelf space? - Management emphasized the commitment to leading a consumer-led marketplace and the positive reception from wholesale partners regarding innovative products and brand statements [61][64] Question: How are you planning near-term investments in the business? - The focus will be on putting sport at the center of operations, shifting investments from performance marketing to brand marketing, and prioritizing five key sports [70][72] Question: What is the expected pressure on 2026 sales due to lifestyle acceleration? - Management acknowledged the need to reduce inventory concentration and is excited about the innovative products coming to market, which will help offset pressure [78][79] Question: How far is the company willing to take short-term actions for long-term benefits? - Management is acting with urgency to reposition the brand and is confident that the investments made will yield positive results in the long term [98][101] Question: What are the key fields of play opportunities? - The company is focusing on five key fields: running, basketball, global football, training, and sportswear, with a strong emphasis on product innovation [105]