AI正在重塑未来。这点无论是all in其间还是远远旁观的专业投资人，几乎没有异议。 但针对投资价格和企业现金流的考量上，选择了向左走，向右走。 绿光资本（ Greenlight Capital ） 则是坚持"老登"立场的那个。创始人大卫 · 艾因霍恩（ David Einhorn ）不仅在去年三季度致持有人的信中继续扮演 着少数 " 非共识者 " 的角色，在最新少有的访谈交流中，依然在重申自己的观点。 这位因在2008年金融危机前成功做空 雷曼兄弟 而声名鹊起 的价值投资者，再一次在市场最喧嚣的时刻，选择在一旁冷眼旁观。 面对席卷全球的AI浪潮，他没有急于拥抱"改变世界"的宏大叙事，而是反复强调一个朴素的 问题：即便技术改变世界，股东是否一定能赚到钱？ "作为一个深度价值投资者，这种不确定性让我很难下注。" 在他看来，今天的市场与1999年的互联网泡沫并非毫无相似之处。资本投入以"不能落后"为 理由迅速膨胀，竞争更像是一场被迫参与的军备竞赛，而非清晰可见的商业回报逻辑。当估值与叙事并 肩狂奔时，价值纪律正在退场。 他甚至直言， 这是自己职业生涯中所见"最昂贵的市场"。 拥有 " 价值投资者 " 名声的艾因霍 ...

Core Insights - Deckers Outdoor Corporation (NYSE: DECK) experienced a significant increase in share prices, rising by 19.36% week-on-week, driven by strong earnings performance from its brands Ugg and Hoka [1] Financial Performance - For the third quarter of fiscal year 2026, Deckers reported a net income increase of 5.3% to $481 million, up from $456.7 million year-on-year, while net sales grew by 7.1% to $1.96 billion from $1.83 billion [2] - Ugg generated $1.3 billion in revenue, reflecting a 4.9% increase from $1.24 billion in the same period last year, while Hoka's net sales rose by 18.5% to $628.9 million from $530.9 million [3] Growth Outlook - Following the positive earnings results, Deckers raised its full fiscal year growth outlook, now expecting net sales to be between $5.4 billion and $5.425 billion, an increase from the previous estimate of $5.35 billion [4] - The outlook for diluted earnings per share was also revised upward to a range of $6.80 to $6.85, compared to the earlier forecast of $6.30 to $6.39 [4] Market Position - The company highlighted strong gross margins due to high levels of full-price selling from UGG and HOKA, indicating a positive trajectory for profitable growth in premium and differentiated brands within expanding market segments [5]

Were concerns over a slowdown in sales at Deckers Outdoor Corp., the parent of the Ugg and Hoka brands, overblown? If anything, third quarter results posted Thursday after the markets closed indicate there is significant global demand for both brands, giving Deckers continued runway for growth, according to company CEO Stefano Caroti. More from WWD Shares of Deckers were up more than 19 percent on Friday, closing at 119.34. In a conference call to investors after reporting earnings, Caroti said: “Globa ...

Core Insights - Deckers Brands' shares increased over 10% following the release of its Q3 fiscal 2026 earnings report, which showed strong financial performance [1] Financial Performance - Net sales for Q3 fiscal 2026 rose 7.1% to $1.96 billion, up from $1.83 billion in the same quarter last year [1] - Net income for Q3 was $481.15 million, or $3.33 per diluted share, compared to $456.73 million, or $3.00 per diluted share, in the prior year [1] Analyst Expectations - The reported results exceeded analysts' expectations, which forecasted net sales between $1.85 billion and $1.9 billion and diluted earnings per share between $2.67 and $2.88 [2] Brand Performance - Ugg brand net sales reached $1.31 billion, a 4.9% increase from $1.24 billion year-over-year [2] - Hoka brand net sales increased 18.5% to $628.9 million, up from $530.9 million in Q3 of the previous year [2] Other Brands Division - The "Other" brands division, including Teva and Ahnu, experienced a significant decline in net sales, dropping 55.5% to $23.2 million from $52.1 million [3] Sales Channels - Wholesale net sales increased 6% to $864.6 million compared to $815.8 million [4] - Direct-to-consumer channel net sales rose 8.1% to $1.09 billion from $1.01 billion year-over-year [4] Regional Performance - Domestic net sales increased 2.7% to $1.2 billion compared to $1.17 billion in Q3 2025 [4] - International net sales surged 15% to $756.7 million from $657.9 million [4] Strategic Insights - The CEO highlighted record revenue and earnings per share driven by strong global demand for Ugg and Hoka [5] - The company emphasized balanced growth in both direct-to-consumer and wholesale channels, with continued international momentum [6] Future Guidance - Deckers raised its full fiscal year 2026 guidance, expecting net sales between $5.4 billion and $5.43 billion, and diluted earnings per share between $6.80 and $6.85 [6]

Core Insights - The footwear and apparel company reported a 19% increase in Hoka sales, indicating strong demand for this brand [1] - Ugg sales experienced a modest rise of 4.9%, reflecting stable performance in this segment [1] - However, the company's other brands faced a significant decline in sales, dropping by 56%, which raises concerns about their market performance [1]

Some on Wall Street continue to see Hoka growth, with Ugg trailing somewhat, as Deckers Brands gears up for its third quarter earnings release on Thursday. Analysts will want to know more in detail how wholesale orders shape up going forward, and how direct-to-consumer sales fared over the holiday season. And one interesting plus going forward for Ugg is its growth in men’s footwear. Meanwhile, high-income female earners could continue to help drive Hoka sales going forward. According to a TD Cowen study ...

Core Insights - Investors are adopting a bearish stance towards Deckers Outdoor, indicating potential significant market movements ahead [1] - The options activity shows a divided sentiment among investors, with 60% bearish and 20% bullish [2] Options Activity - There has been notable options activity for Deckers Outdoor, with 10 extraordinary options trades identified, including 2 puts totaling $56,200 and 8 calls amounting to $715,116 [2] - The mean open interest for Deckers Outdoor options trades is 458.83, with a total volume of 1,349.00 [4] Price Targets - Major market movers are focusing on a price range between $80.0 and $120.0 for Deckers Outdoor over the last three months [3] - Recent analyst ratings suggest an average target price of $110.5, with varying opinions from different analysts [9] Company Overview - Deckers Outdoor, founded in 1973, specializes in casual and performance footwear, apparel, and accessories, with Ugg and Hoka accounting for 51% and 45% of total sales in fiscal 2025 [8] - The company generates 64% of its sales in the United States and operates e-commerce in over 50 countries [8] Current Market Position - Deckers Outdoor's stock is currently trading at $102.27, down by 1.02%, with an anticipated earnings release in 7 days [10] - Analysts have varied ratings, with one downgrading to Underweight with a target of $85, while another maintains a Buy rating with a target of $130 [10]

Core Viewpoint - Deckers Outdoor's stock has faced downgrades from analysts, raising concerns about its growth and profitability despite strong cash flow and low valuation metrics [1][2][3]. Group 1: Analyst Downgrades - Baird downgraded Deckers to neutral, citing concerns about the company's growth not being sufficient to support its near-term valuation [2]. - Piper Sandler downgraded Deckers to "underperform," highlighting risks associated with discounting strategies that may harm profit margins and customer relationships [3]. Group 2: Financial Metrics - Deckers' current stock price is $104.03, with a market capitalization of $16 billion and a gross margin of 56.14% [4]. - The stock is trading at approximately 16 times earnings, with a free cash flow of $980 million, which supports over 96% of reported net income [4]. - The enterprise value to free cash flow ratio is less than 15 times, indicating a potentially undervalued stock [4]. Group 3: Growth Potential - If Deckers can achieve a 15% annual earnings growth, it may present a buying opportunity for investors [5].

Core Insights - Deckers is streamlining its brand portfolio by phasing out the Koolaburra and Ahnu brands to concentrate on its successful Hoka and Ugg labels [1][2][3] Brand Strategy - The company plans to discontinue Koolaburra's standalone product collections and operations to focus on organic growth opportunities with the Ugg brand [2] - The closure of the Ahnu label was disclosed quietly in a 10-Q filing, with plans to wind down operations by the end of 2025 [2][3] Operational Changes - Deckers has initiated the phase-out of Ahnu's standalone operations, closing Ahnu.com as of October 1, 2025, and aims to complete the wind-down in the wholesale channel by the end of 2025 [3] - The company expects to finalize the closure procedures for both Ahnu and Koolaburra by the end of the third quarter, which concludes on March 31, 2026 [3] Brand History - The Ahnu label was briefly revived in March 2024 as a "super sneaker" brand, although it was not considered a relaunch of the original label [4] - Deckers acquired the Ahnu label in 2009 and initially operated it until 2018 before its recent revival [4]

Group 1: Yeti Holdings - Yeti Holdings barely outperformed the S&P 500 in 2025 with an 18% gain, but sluggish revenue growth raises concerns about future performance [1] - The company has experienced a 35% decline in stock value over the past five years, indicating caution for investors [1][7] - Yeti Holdings has lower profit margins compared to Deckers Outdoor, which may affect its attractiveness as an investment [5] Group 2: Deckers Outdoor - Deckers Outdoor, the parent company of Hoka and Ugg, is positioned for a rebound after losing nearly half its value in 2025 [2] - The stock has more than doubled over the past five years, showcasing its potential for recovery [2] - Deckers Outdoor currently trades at a 15.4 price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio, despite steady revenue and net income growth rates [4] - Hoka and Ugg sales achieved double-digit year-over-year growth in Q2 FY26, with net income increasing by 11% [4] - International sales for Deckers Outdoor saw a significant 29.3% year-over-year improvement, compensating for a 1.7% decline in domestic sales [6][8] - The valuation of Deckers Outdoor is considered attractive compared to Yeti Holdings, especially given its higher growth rates and profit margins [5][7]