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Bancolombia (NYSE:CIB) Q4 2025 Earnings call February 24, 2026 09:00 AM ET Speaker8Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to Grupo SURA, Bancolombia's 4th quarter 2025 earnings conference call. My name is Carrie, and I will be your operator for today's call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Following the prepared remarks, there will be a question-and-answer session. During the question-and-answer session, if you have a question, please press Star, then 1 on your touch-tone ...

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Core Insights - Pagaya Technologies (PGY) achieved GAAP profitability in 2025 after substantial losses in previous years, marking a significant turnaround with positive net income reported in all four quarters of the year [1][2]. Financial Performance - For the full year 2025, Pagaya reported a record net income of $81.4 million, a substantial recovery from a net loss of $401.4 million in 2024 [2][9]. - Total revenue and other income grew by 26.1% year over year, primarily driven by increased fee income from its lending network [2][9]. - Adjusted EBITDA surged by 76.3% year over year, indicating improved operational efficiency and cost management [3][9]. Operational Efficiency - The company benefited from operating leverage, where revenue growth outpaced expense growth, leading to improved margins and a quicker transition to profitability [3][4]. - Enhanced funding diversification and disciplined risk management practices supported the company's profitability, allowing it to maintain capital availability while focusing on profitable growth [4]. Market Reaction - Despite the strong performance in 2025, PGY's stock experienced a decline due to management's softer-than-expected guidance for early 2026, projecting network volume of $2.5-$2.7 billion and total revenues of $315-$335 million for Q1 2026 [5][9]. - The stock has lost 63.4% over the past six months, contrasting with a 25% decline in the industry [8][10]. Peer Comparison - In 2025, Upstart Holdings, Inc. reported a net income of $53.6 million, with total revenues increasing by 64% year over year to $1.04 billion [6]. - Upstart expects total revenues of $1.4 billion for 2026, indicating strong growth prospects in comparison to Pagaya's guidance [7].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has decided to maintain the current benchmark interest rates, which will continue to impact borrowers facing high-interest debt, particularly credit cards and personal loans, delaying financial goals into 2026 [1] Group 1: Identifying and Managing High-Rate Debt - High-interest debt is defined as any debt with an annual percentage rate (APR) above 8%, including most credit cards and personal loans, and prioritizing these debts can lead to significant savings over time [2] - Utilizing established debt repayment strategies, such as the debt avalanche method or the debt snowball method, can effectively reduce total interest paid [3][4] Group 2: Debt Consolidation and Budget Management - Consolidating high-rate debt into a lower-rate personal loan or a balance transfer card with a 0% introductory APR can streamline payments and reduce interest temporarily [5] - Adjusting the monthly budget to eliminate discretionary spending or reallocating savings towards debt repayment can accelerate the process of paying down debt [6] Group 3: Payment Automation - Setting up automatic payments can help avoid late fees and protect credit scores, which is essential for securing better loan terms when interest rates eventually decrease [7]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In 2025, the company achieved a total revenue of approximately $1.04 billion, representing a 64% increase from the previous year, with fee revenue reaching $950 million, up 64% as well [23][29] - The net income for Q4 was approximately $19 million, a significant improvement from a loss of $2.8 million in the same quarter last year [16][28] - The adjusted EBITDA margin for the full year was 22%, compared to just 2% the previous year, reflecting strong operational leverage [29] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Personal loan originations grew by 75% year-on-year, while auto and home loan originations increased fivefold year-on-year [9][16] - The average loan size rose to approximately $7,000, a 5% increase from the prior quarter, driven by a higher mix of non-personal loan products [27] - The contribution margin for Q4 was 53%, down 4 percentage points from the prior quarter, reflecting a strategic shift towards long-term customer value [27][30] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a total of approximately 456,000 loan transactions in Q4, an 86% increase from the previous year [26] - The Upstart Macro Index (UMI) averaged around 1.4 for most of the past year, indicating a stable consumer risk environment [18][32] - The company expects to maintain a compound annual growth rate of 35% from 2025 to 2028, with a target adjusted EBITDA margin of around 25% by 2028 [32] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to solidify its position as a leader in AI-powered lending, focusing on expanding market share in auto and home lending segments [11][56] - A strategic shift towards prioritizing customer lifetime value over immediate take rates is expected to enhance long-term profitability [30][68] - The company plans to enhance transparency by providing monthly transaction volume updates, allowing investors to better gauge performance trends [12][59] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the company's growth trajectory, citing a strong foundation built over the past years and improved AI capabilities [10][11] - The leadership transition is seen as a positive step, with the new CEO emphasizing the importance of technology in driving future growth [5][15] - The company anticipates that economic factors such as tax refunds and looser monetary policy will positively impact consumer demand for loans [64] Other Important Information - The company has successfully reduced its balance sheet loans by 20% in Q4, with a significant portion of new product originations funded by third parties [9][25] - The leadership team has undergone changes, with new appointments aimed at strengthening the company's strategic direction [15][33] Q&A Session Summary Question: How did the company manage to reduce balance sheet loans while experiencing strong growth in autos and HELOCs? - Management indicated that the reduction in balance sheet loans was part of a strategy to incubate new products, with 70% of these products now funded by third parties [36][37] Question: How much conservatism is built into the UMI guidance? - The company clarified that the UMI guidance is based on their best estimate of consumer risk, without labeling it as conservative or aggressive [39] Question: What factors are influencing the expected decline in EBITDA margins for 2026? - Management explained that the decline is due to a mix shift towards larger secured products with lower take rates and a focus on long-term customer value [43][45] Question: What is the current health of the private credit partnerships? - The company reported that their private credit partners are performing well, with strong diligence on credit quality [48] Question: How does the company view the consumer health and its impact on loan demand? - Management noted that consumer health is stabilizing post-COVID, with positive trends in UMI indicating a return to normalcy [52][53] Question: What is the company's perspective on the personal loan market and potential saturation? - The company believes it is gaining market share in personal loans and is focused on competitive advantages rather than overall market growth [61][62] Question: How is the company planning to engage borrowers during the repayment period? - Management acknowledged that there is significant potential for improving customer engagement and cross-selling additional products [83]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In 2025, the company achieved total revenue of approximately $1.04 billion, a 64% increase from 2024, with fee revenue reaching $950 million, exceeding guidance [22][28] - The net income for Q4 was approximately $19 million, a significant improvement from a loss of $2.8 million in the same quarter last year [14][27] - Adjusted EBITDA for the year was $230 million, representing a 22% margin, compared to just 2% the previous year [22][28] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Loan originations grew by 52% year-over-year in Q4, with personal loans increasing by 41% and new products like auto and home loans growing significantly [13][14] - The company reduced loans on its balance sheet by 20% in Q4, indicating a shift towards third-party funding for new products [8][24] - The average loan size increased to approximately $7,000, reflecting a growing mix of non-personal loan products [25] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a transaction volume of approximately 456,000 loans in Q4, up 86% from the previous year [25] - The average return of the last 12 quarterly vintages of loans exceeded U.S. Treasuries by 608 basis points, showcasing strong credit performance [16] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to establish itself as a leader in AI-powered lending, projecting a compound annual growth rate of 35% over the next three years [10][32] - A focus on expanding into secured products like auto and home loans is expected to contribute over $100 million in fee revenue in 2026 [30][31] - The company is evolving its financial guidance approach to emphasize annual outlooks and provide more frequent updates on origination volumes [29] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company's position, stating that it has emerged from a multi-year rebuild and is now stronger than ever [9][12] - The company anticipates continued growth in its core personal loan business while also scaling up new secured product categories [30][32] - Management noted that the health of consumers is stabilizing, with UMI values indicating a return to pre-COVID normalization [53] Other Important Information - The company has undergone a leadership transition, with Paul Gu becoming the new CEO, while Dave Girouard remains as Executive Chairman [4][5] - The company launched significant model updates in Q4, enhancing its AI capabilities and improving loan performance metrics [17][18] Q&A Session Summary Question: How did the company manage to reduce balance sheet loans while experiencing strong growth in autos and HELOCs? - Management indicated that the reduction in balance sheet loans was part of a strategy to incubate new products and align with third-party funding, achieving liftoff in these areas [36][37] Question: How much conservatism is built into the UMI guidance? - Management clarified that the UMI guidance is based on their best estimate of consumer risk and does not imply conservatism or aggression [39] Question: What factors are influencing the expected decline in EBITDA margins for 2026? - Management explained that the decline is due to a changing mix towards larger secured products with lower take rates and a long-term view on customer lifetime value [43][45] Question: What is the current health and appetite for consumer credit among funding partners? - Management reported that their partners are performing well and have a steady appetite for credit, with new relationships being developed in secured segments [48][49] Question: How does the company view the personal loan market and its growth potential? - Management emphasized that they focus on gaining market share rather than overall market growth, and they believe their competitive product offerings will continue to drive growth [61][62]

Bread Financial Conference Call Summary Company Overview - **Company**: Bread Financial (NYSE: BFH) - **Industry**: Consumer finance and payments, focusing on private label card issuance, co-brand cards, proprietary cards, and buy now, pay later loans [1] Key Points and Arguments Financial Performance - **January Results**: Positive trends in January with flat loan growth and improved loss and delinquency rates. February is expected to see a seasonal increase in activity, approaching 8% [2] - **Expense Management**: Non-interest expenses were $500 million in Q4, expected to decrease slightly in Q1. Adjusted expenses exclude one-time charges from previous years [3] - **Loan Growth Outlook**: Anticipated low single-digit growth for the year, supported by new partnerships and improved credit quality [18] Customer Insights - **Customer Demographics**: Bread Financial primarily serves middle-income consumers with an average income of $94,000. The customer base is resilient despite economic challenges, adjusting spending habits due to inflation [9][10] - **Spending Behavior**: Consumers are making more budget-conscious choices, opting for lower-cost options while maintaining financial stability [10] Product Diversity and Partnerships - **Product Expansion**: Bread Financial has diversified its offerings beyond private label credit cards to include co-brand products, direct-to-consumer products, and buy now, pay later options [12][14] - **Partner Relationships**: The expanded product set enhances partnerships by providing more options for consumers, increasing revenue opportunities for partners [16] Market Dynamics and Competitive Landscape - **Pipeline and Competition**: The company has a robust pipeline for new partnerships, with opportunities in both de novo programs and existing partner renewals. Competition remains intense, but Bread Financial is well-positioned to leverage its expertise [39][41] - **Vertical Expertise**: Strong performance in verticals such as beauty, jewelry, and technology, with a focus on expanding into digital and home improvement sectors [43][44] Financial Strategy and Outlook - **Funding Strategy**: Significant progress made in refinancing debt, with a goal to increase direct-to-consumer deposits to 50% of total funding. The company aims to maintain a stable funding structure while exploring opportunities for preferred stock issuance [45][46] - **NIM Guidance**: Net interest margin (NIM) is expected to remain flat to slightly up, influenced by pricing changes and improvements in credit quality [49] Risks and Opportunities - **Macro Risks**: Potential impacts from tax refunds on consumer behavior and loan performance. The company is cautious in its guidance, accounting for various macroeconomic factors [24][25] - **Technology Transformation**: Ongoing tech transformation efforts, including migration to cloud services and AI integration, are seen as critical for future growth [53][58] Future Initiatives - **Focus Areas for 2026**: Emphasis on responsible growth, managing expenses, and leveraging technology to enhance customer service and underwriting processes [65][67] Additional Important Insights - **Consumer Behavior with Windfall Gains**: The use of tax refunds varies among consumers, with some opting to save, spend, or pay down debt, reflecting diverse financial strategies [27] - **AI Strategy**: Bread Financial is adopting a thoughtful approach to AI, focusing on governance, use cases, and ensuring returns on investments in technology [57][59] This summary encapsulates the key insights and strategic directions discussed during the conference call, highlighting Bread Financial's performance, market positioning, and future outlook.