招商证券国际发布研报称，内地龙头互联网企业模型迭代惊喜连连，包括字节跳动旗下"Seedance2.0"及 快手-W(01024)旗下"可灵3.0"电影级影片生成效果大幅提升；阿里巴巴-W(09988)的"Qwen-Image-2.0"对 标"Nano Banana"，旗下桌面Agent工具"Qoder Work"对标"Claude Cowork"；全球模型服务平台 OpenRouter旗下的"Pony Alpha"能力逼近Anthropic旗下"Claude Opus4.6"；"Kimi K2.5"登顶OpenRouter。 该行指，内地龙头互联网企业AI主线投资逻辑显著强化，助力港股科技板块估值修复。待上线的重磅 模型包括DeepSeek-V4，阿里Qwen3.5、豆包2.0、Mini Max M2.2等，或将成为下一阶段催化剂。首选股 包括阿里巴巴、腾讯控股(00700)、快手。 ...

Core Insights - The report from China Merchants Securities International highlights significant advancements in the AI models of leading internet companies in mainland China, including ByteDance's "Seedance 2.0" and Kuaishou's "Keli 3.0," which have greatly improved film generation capabilities [1] - Alibaba's "Qwen-Image-2.0" is positioned against "Nano Banana," while its desktop agent tool "Qoder Work" competes with "Claude Cowork" [1] - The global model service platform OpenRouter's "Pony Alpha" is nearing the capabilities of Anthropic's "Claude Opus 4.6," and "Kimi K2.5" has topped OpenRouter [1] Investment Logic - The investment logic surrounding AI in leading internet companies in mainland China has significantly strengthened, aiding in the valuation recovery of the Hong Kong tech sector [1] - Upcoming major models such as DeepSeek-V4, Alibaba's Qwen 3.5, Doubao 2.0, and Mini Max M2.2 are expected to act as catalysts for the next phase of growth [1] - Preferred stocks include Alibaba, Tencent Holdings, and Kuaishou [1]

Group 1: Revenue Projections and Business Growth - Anthropic has revised its revenue expectations for 2026 and 2027 to $18 billion and $55 billion, respectively, driven by the increased penetration of its Agent product in the B2B sector [1] - The Agent's token consumption is reported to be several times higher than traditional chat models, indicating a significant shift in its utility and market position [1] - The Agent has transitioned from merely reducing costs to actively driving business growth, which is expected to be a key lever for Anthropic's revenue increase [1] Group 2: Market Trends and Competitive Landscape - As of November 2025, Claude Code's Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) has surpassed $1 billion, showcasing the competitive expansion of coding agents into general scenarios [2] - Major tech companies are embedding agents into their platforms to capture traffic, with Google Chrome integrating tools like Gemini and Nano Banana [2] - ChatGPT's global web traffic share has decreased to 64.5% in January 2026, down approximately 20 percentage points from January 2025, indicating a shift in user engagement and market dynamics [2] Group 3: Consumer and Community Engagement - OpenClaw has gained popularity, leading to increased purchases of Macmini, as it enhances user experience with large models in consumer settings [3] - Moltbook, an Agent version of Reddit, allows agents to autonomously interact, although the actual number of functioning agents is only in the thousands out of over 1.5 million created [4] - The social interactions among agents are characterized as mimicking games rather than genuine emotional exchanges, highlighting the nascent stage of agent community dynamics [4] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - Suggested focus on domestic large models such as Minimax-WP and Zhiyu, as well as companies involved in Agent technology and infrastructure, including 合合信息 and 鼎捷数智 [5] - Recommendations also include investments in domestic computing power firms like 芯原股份 and 寒武纪, along with CPU manufacturers such as 澜起科技 [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the computer industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4][13] Core Insights - The report highlights the emergence of autonomous agents, marking the beginning of the third scaling phase in the industry. Companies like Anthropic are revising their revenue expectations upwards, with projections of $18 billion and $55 billion for 2026 and 2027 respectively. The penetration of agents is expected to drive significant revenue growth [6] - The report notes a decline in global web traffic share for ChatGPT, which fell to 64.5% in January 2026, a decrease of approximately 20 percentage points compared to January 2025. This shift indicates a transition in growth narratives towards mixed revenue models [6] - The report emphasizes the potential for AI-native products to emerge rapidly, amplifying short-term industry volatility while validating long-term trends. It anticipates a significant increase in the "Token->ARR" conversion for agents in 2026, suggesting a robust investment opportunity in high-growth sectors [6] Summary by Sections Section: Market Performance - The report discusses the performance of the computer sector, indicating a positive outlook based on recent developments and market trends [2] Section: Autonomous Agents - The report details the advancements in autonomous agents, including their increasing role in B2B applications and the significant rise in token consumption compared to traditional chat models. The penetration of these agents is seen as a key lever for revenue growth for companies like Anthropic [6] Section: Consumer Productivity - OpenClaw has gained popularity, driving a surge in Mac mini purchases. The report notes that consumer sensitivity to model performance is low, while sensitivity to interaction is high, indicating a shift in user engagement with AI tools [6] Section: Group Intelligence - The emergence of Moltbook, an agent-based platform, is discussed as a preliminary form of group intelligence. The report highlights the initial chaotic nature of agent interactions and the potential for new business models to develop from these early stages [6] Section: Investment Strategy - The report suggests focusing on sectors with clear industry trends and high growth certainty, recommending investments in domestic large models, agents, infrastructure, and computing power companies. It advises on the importance of reverse investment strategies and forward-looking positioning due to industry volatility [6]