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创新药板块有望持续迎来重磅催化,关注科创创新药ETF国泰(589720)
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-10-17 01:41
Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the innovative drug sector remains a strong investment theme despite a recent 15% pullback, with a year-to-date performance still among the best in the market [2] - From January to September, the total contract value for Chinese innovative drugs going overseas exceeded $100 billion, marking a 170% year-on-year increase, indicating a robust long-term outlook for the innovative industry chain [2] - The trend of innovative drugs going global is expected to continue, with more business development (BD) deals anticipated by year-end, reinforcing confidence in the innovative sector [2] Group 2 - The innovative drug sector is expected to receive significant catalysts in the fourth quarter, with 23 Chinese studies selected for presentation at the upcoming ESMO conference, a substantial increase from 7 studies in 2024 [3] - Macroeconomic conditions are favorable for the innovative drug sector, as recent comments from Powell suggest potential interest rate cuts, which are beneficial for rate-sensitive innovative drugs [3] - The innovative drug sector is seen as a good investment choice amid market resistance and a rotation in tech growth, with BD deals expected to drive recovery in the sector [3] Group 3 - The fourth quarter typically sees BD transactions account for about 40% of annual totals, with large products also expected to contribute positively [3] - Recent adjustments in the market provide a favorable entry point for long-term investors in the innovative drug sector [3] - Investors are encouraged to consider ETFs focused on innovative drugs, particularly those targeting the STAR Market and smaller-cap stocks, which may show stronger resilience [3]