晨会纪要 证券研究报告 2025 年 08 月 26 日 核心结论 【电子】汇顶科技(603160.SH) 2025 年半年报点评:多点布局新品持续 放量，旺季催化看好业绩增长 公司是指纹传感器全球领先企业，覆盖"传感、AI 计算、连接、安全"四大 核心业务,成长动力充足。我们预计汇顶科技 2025-2027 年营收分别为 55.24、65.8、78.4 亿元，归母净利润分别为 8.56、10.78、12.68 亿元。我 们持续看好公司未来业务拓展及业绩增长,维持"买入"评级。 【电子】聚辰股份（688123.SH）2025 年半年报点评：DDR5 SPD 与车规 EEPROM 齐放量,利润率显著提升 我们预计公司 25/26/27 年营收分别为 13.09/17.95/24.03 亿元,归母净利润 分别为 4.42/6.32/8.67 亿元，维持"买入"评级。 【传媒】芒果超媒（300413.SZ）2025 年上半年业绩点评: 芒果 TV 表现相 对稳定,看好新政下平台发展 我们预计公司 25-27 年归母净利润分别为 14.47/15.10/18.95 亿元, YoY+6%/+4%/+25%，内容储备丰富 ...

Global Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index closed at 25,166, down 0.41% for the day but up 25.45% year-to-date [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.88% to 3,766, with a year-to-date increase of 12.37% [1] - The US markets showed mixed results, with the Dow Jones down 0.05% and the S&P 500 down 0.60%, while the Nasdaq fell by 1.42% [1] Hong Kong Stock Performance - The Hang Seng Financial Index decreased by 0.42% to 44,940, with a year-to-date increase of 27.90% [2] - The Hang Seng Property Index fell by 1.15% to 18,493, but is still up 24.01% year-to-date [2] - Southbound capital saw a net sell-off of HKD 14.68 billion, with major sell-offs in ETFs like the Tracker Fund and Hang Seng China Enterprises [3] Company Insights Guoquan (锅圈) - Guoquan is the leading brand in China's home dining solutions, achieving retail sales of RMB 11.1 billion in 2022, with a market share of 3% [5] - The company operates over 10,150 stores and is expected to generate approximately RMB 6.5 billion in sales for the fiscal year 2024 [5] - Guoquan's C2F model offers advantages to consumers and suppliers, with a diverse product range and a focus on quality and safety [5][6] Baidu - Baidu's Q2 2025 performance exceeded market expectations, with core business revenue of RMB 26.3 billion, a 2% year-on-year decline but 1.6% above consensus [8] - The company is focusing on growth in its autonomous driving and cloud services, which are expected to drive long-term revenue and profit growth [8] Boss Zhipin - Boss Zhipin reported a 10% year-on-year revenue increase to RMB 2.1 billion in Q2 2025, with non-GAAP net profit rising by 31% to RMB 941 million [8] - The company anticipates a revenue growth of 11.4%-13.0% in Q3 2025, driven by an improving supply-demand environment [8] Keren Biotechnology - Keren Biotechnology expects to release significant data at the 2025 ESMO conference, with SKB264 projected to generate sales of RMB 800 million to RMB 1 billion [9][10] - The company is actively advancing multiple Phase III clinical trials for SKB264, targeting various cancer indications [11] WuXi Biologics - WuXi Biologics reported a 16.1% year-on-year revenue increase to RMB 9.953 billion in H1 2025, driven by strong demand in both R&D and manufacturing sectors [13] - The company has raised its full-year revenue growth guidance to 14-16%, reflecting robust client demand [13][14] ZTO Express - ZTO Express has adjusted its annual package volume growth forecast to 14-18%, down from 20-24%, in response to government policies [16] - Despite a 26% year-on-year profit decline in Q2 2025, the company anticipates that single-package prices may exceed expectations, serving as a catalyst for stock price growth [16] China General Nuclear Power Corporation - China General Nuclear Power Corporation issued a profit warning for H1 2025, expecting a net loss between HKD 40 million and HKD 90 million, aligning with previous forecasts [17] - The company has signed an underwriting agreement with its parent company, which is expected to significantly increase contract prices starting in 2026, driving future profit growth [17]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 525, representing a potential upside of 15% from the current price of HKD 456 [1][10]. Core Insights - The company's 1H25 performance exceeded expectations, with revenue of RMB 950 million and a narrowed net loss of RMB 145 million, which is a 146.8% year-over-year improvement [4]. - The sales of SKB264 reached RMB 302 million in the first half of the year, and the company maintains its first-year sales guidance of RMB 800-1,000 million [4]. - The company has successfully commercialized SKB264 in two indications and has a sales team of over 350 people, with sales established in over 1,000 hospitals across 29 provinces [4]. - The report highlights the upcoming ESMO conference where important data for SKB264 will be presented, which could further boost market confidence [4]. Financial Performance Summary - For 1H25, product revenue was RMB 310 million, with licensing revenue at RMB 630 million, slightly better than consensus estimates [4]. - The company’s cash and cash equivalents reached RMB 3.1 billion as of June 30, 2025, significantly up from RMB 1.34 billion at the end of 2024 [4]. - The report projects revenue growth with total revenue expected to reach RMB 2.286 billion in 2025, reflecting an 18.3% year-over-year increase [6]. Sales and Product Development - SKB264 has received preliminary approval for basic medical insurance and is expected to enter the insurance negotiations in the second half of the year [4]. - The company anticipates further approvals for additional indications of SKB264 in 2H25, which could enhance its market position [4]. - Other approved products, A167 and A140, are expected to contribute limited sales this year but may see significant growth once included in the insurance directory [4]. Valuation and Forecast - The report adjusts the 2025E net loss forecast to RMB 260 million and projects a net profit of RMB 220 million in 2026 [4]. - The target price of HKD 525 is derived from a DCF valuation model with a WACC of 8.7% and a perpetual growth rate of 3% [4].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a revenue of RMB950 million for the first half of 2025, with over RMB300 million coming from commercialized drugs, marking a significant achievement in its first year of commercialization [50][51] - Gross profit was RMB660 million, comparable to the previous year, while the net loss for the first half was RMB145 million, with an adjusted loss of RMB69 million after one-off budget adjustments [52][53] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company has three main products ready for the market, with significant progress in approvals and commercialization efforts [12][21] - The commercialization team has expanded to nearly 400 personnel to support the increasing number of products [12] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company has covered over 30 provinces, 300 cities, and over 1,000 hospitals across China, with partnerships established with over 400 pharmacies [28][32] - The company is actively working towards gaining medical insurance coverage for its products, which is expected to enhance market access [33][34] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to advance differentiated pipelines targeting significant medical needs, optimizing payload linker strategies, and exploring applications in non-oncology areas [26] - The focus is on expanding global partnerships and strengthening strategic collaborations to maximize the value of its pipelines [26] Management Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the future income from sales revenue, anticipating continued cash flow generation from both R&D partnerships and commercialized drugs [51] - The company is preparing for the implementation of new medical insurance policies, which could significantly impact product sales strategies [97][100] Other Important Information - The company completed a follow-on financing of US$250 million and is included in several global equity indexes, enhancing its financial stability [25] - The company is involved in ongoing litigation regarding IP disputes with several founders, which has been accepted for review by the Sichuan Provincial High Court [101] Q&A Session Summary Question: What is the breakdown of sales revenue for breast cancer and lung cancer? - Lung cancer is the biggest contributor to sales revenue, consistent with patient numbers and indications. The sales expenses are expected to decrease once products are included in medical insurance coverage [62][63] Question: What is the focus for R&D going into the next stage? - The focus is on developing differentiated products targeting clinical demands, with an emphasis on bispecific targets and new payload strategies [68][70] Question: Can you provide guidelines on the sales trend for Q3? - The company expects quarter-over-quarter growth, with significant contributions anticipated from lung cancer indications [72] Question: What is the rationale behind the clinical trial design for PD L1 positive and negative patients? - The company is focusing on first-line treatment for wild-type non-small cell lung cancer, with ongoing projects in development [88] Question: How is the company planning to navigate the new medical insurance policy? - The company is prioritizing entry into the medical insurance catalog and is actively preparing to comply with the new policy [97][98]

Sichuan Kelun Pharmaceutical Co (002422) H1 2025 Earnings Call August 17, 2025 09:30 PM ET ModeratorSo in short, will last for an hour. Are going to first present the interim result of the company before opening the floor for Q and A. This meeting will be recorded for internal use and also for our clients' use. Any forward looking statements made during the call are based on current expectations and assumptions made by the management. The actual outcomes may differ materially from those statements.The compa ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a revenue of RMB 950 million for the first half of 2025, with over RMB 300 million coming from commercialized drugs, marking a significant achievement in its first year of commercialization [52][53] - Gross profit was RMB 660 million, comparable to the previous year, while the net loss for the first half was RMB 145 million, with an adjusted loss of RMB 69 million after one-off budget adjustments [54][55] - Cash and financial assets totaled RMB 4.5 billion, indicating a healthy financial status to support upcoming R&D and innovation [58] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company has three main products ready for the market, with significant progress in approvals and commercialization efforts [15][32] - The commercialization team has expanded to nearly 400 personnel to support the increasing number of products ready for market [14] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company has successfully covered over 30 provinces, 300 cities, and 1,000 hospitals across China, with partnerships established with over 400 pharmacies [32][34] - The company is actively working towards gaining medical insurance coverage for its products, which is expected to enhance market access and sales [36][81] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to advance differentiated pipelines targeting significant medical needs, optimizing payload linker strategies, and exploring applications in non-oncology areas [30] - The focus is on expanding global partnerships and strengthening strategic collaborations to maximize the value of its pipelines [30] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the future income from sales revenue, anticipating continued cash flow generation from commercialized drugs [53] - The company is preparing for the implementation of new medical insurance policies, which are expected to impact product sales positively [100] Other Important Information - The company completed a follow-on financing of USD 250 million and is included in major global equity indexes, enhancing its market presence [29] - The company has initiated several pivotal trials globally, including for various cancer indications, which are expected to drive future growth [25][26] Q&A Session Summary Question: What is the breakdown of sales revenue for breast cancer and lung cancer? - Lung cancer is the biggest contributor to sales revenue, consistent with patient numbers and indications [64] Question: What is the focus for R&D going into the next stage? - The focus is on developing differentiated products targeting clinical demands, with an emphasis on bispecific targets and new payload strategies [70][72] Question: Can you provide guidelines on the sales trend for Q3? - The company expects quarter-over-quarter growth, with significant sales anticipated from lung cancer indications [76] Question: What is the strategy for going into the medical insurance catalog? - The strategy prioritizes entering the medical insurance catalog to enhance market access and sales volume [100] Question: Can you address the IP disputes mentioned? - The company has initiated a lawsuit against several founders related to IP disputes, which is currently under review by the Sichuan Provincial High Court [103]

Group 1: Market Strategy and Outlook - The core driver behind the recent A-share market rally is the optimistic expectation of a rebound in corporate ROE, rather than mere speculation around policy themes [4][9] - The current valuation of A-shares, while having outpaced the recovery of fundamentals, is not extreme, indicating that the recovery in sectors like food and beverage, coal, and oil and petrochemicals is still in its early stages [4][9] - The "anti-involution" and demand-side policies are expected to show quicker effects compared to the comprehensive policies of 2024, with companies having undergone three quarters of self-purging [10][11] Group 2: Sector Recommendations - **Machinery**: Companies like Xugong Machinery and Yingliu Shares are recommended due to domestic demand stabilization and overseas market recovery [14][15] - **Non-ferrous Metals**: China Rare Earth is favored as export controls may lead to price increases in rare earths, supported by moderate quota growth [16] - **Non-bank Financials**: China Galaxy is highlighted for its strengthening brokerage business and potential for international expansion [17] - **Media and Internet**: Yao Cai Securities is positioned to benefit from increased trading volumes in Hong Kong and potential synergies from Ant Group's acquisition [18] - **Agriculture**: Muyuan Foods is recognized as a leading pig farming enterprise with expected stable profits amid rising pork prices [19] - **Defense and Military**: North Navigation is anticipated to benefit from a rising demand cycle for its products [20] - **Computing**: Kingsoft Office is seen as a leader in AI applications, with significant growth potential from its innovative products [21][22] - **Electronics**: Lante Optics is expected to see strong demand from various sectors, including automotive and AI [23] - **Pharmaceuticals**: Kelun-Botai is noted for its leading ADC technology and potential for international sales growth [24][25]

Group 1: Market Performance - Hong Kong innovative drug stocks have surged, with companies like Lepu Biopharma-B, Connaught-B, and Kanyan Biopharma rising over 11% [1] - Other notable gainers include Sangfor Biopharma, Kelun-Botai Biopharma, and BeiGene, which increased by over 8% [1] - Various ETFs related to innovative drugs and healthcare in Hong Kong have also seen gains exceeding 3% [1] Group 2: Policy and Market Trends - The National Healthcare Security Administration has initiated the 11th batch of centralized drug procurement, focusing on mature "old drugs" while excluding innovative drugs from this round [3] - The Chinese biotech sector is entering a structural revaluation phase, with the overall market capitalization of Chinese biotech companies at only 14%-15% of their US counterparts, despite contributing nearly 33% to global innovation [4] - The innovative drug sector is expected to maintain its growth trajectory, driven by policy support and increasing global competitiveness [5] Group 3: Company Developments - China Biopharmaceutical announced the acquisition of the remaining 95.09% stake in LaNova for $501 million, marking a significant milestone in the Chinese pharmaceutical industry [4] - Companies like BeiGene and Hengrui Medicine are positioned for growth, with BeiGene expected to achieve full profitability by 2025 and Hengrui entering a rapid growth phase in domestic sales [5][6] - Innovative drug companies are anticipated to see improved fundamentals, with overseas orders and performance beginning to recover [5]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: 科伦博泰 (Kelong Botai) - **Core Product**: SKB264, approved for late-stage triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC) and EGFR mutation-positive small cell lung cancer, with three additional indications expected to launch this year [2][6] Industry Insights - **Sales Model**: The company employs a sales model focused on major tertiary hospitals in core cities, with Kelong Pharmaceuticals assisting in penetrating lower-tier markets, while Merck & Co. manages overseas markets [2][5] - **Market Potential**: The domestic peak sales forecast for SKB264 is 7.1 billion RMB, while the overseas peak sales forecast is 7.6 billion USD, indicating significant market potential [3][24] Product Development and Pipeline - **Clinical Trials**: SKB264 has shown significant advantages in TNBC with a progression-free survival (PFS) of 5.7 months and overall survival (OS) of 14.3 months, outperforming chemotherapy [2][16] - **ADC Technology**: The company is advancing its ADC (Antibody-Drug Conjugate) technology, with SKB264 being a modified version of Gilead's SJADC, featuring optimized linkers and ligands to reduce side effects [2][11][12] - **Upcoming Data**: Key clinical data for TNBC and gynecological tumors is expected to be released in 2025 [8] Strategic Partnerships - **Collaboration with Merck**: Merck's involvement is crucial, having acquired multiple ADC projects and showing strong confidence in Kelong Botai's ADC technology [2][3] - **Global Development Focus**: Merck is prioritizing TROP2 ADC, initiating 14 global multi-center clinical trials across various indications, which enhances Kelong Botai's market position [18] Competitive Landscape - **Market Position**: SKB264 is positioned to lead the market due to the failure of competitors' OS data, which has elevated its ranking [24] - **Emerging Competitors**: Other ADCs in development include HER2 and CMET targets, but SKB264's precise patient selection has yielded superior clinical outcomes [15][17] Financial Valuation - **Company Valuation**: The overall company valuation is estimated at 87.8 billion RMB, based on peak sales multiples of approved and clinical-stage products [3][25] Additional Insights - **Team and Management**: The company boasts a strong management team with significant industry experience, contributing to its competitive edge [10] - **Employee Growth**: The commercial team is expected to expand from approximately 360 to 400-500 personnel this year [4] This summary encapsulates the critical aspects of Kelong Botai's current standing, product pipeline, strategic partnerships, and market potential, providing a comprehensive overview for potential investors and stakeholders.

Core Viewpoint - The company, Kelun-Botai, is a leading player in the ADC (Antibody-Drug Conjugate) sector, with a robust technology platform and significant backing from multinational corporations (MNCs) [1] Group 1: Company Overview - Kelun-Botai was established in 2016 as an innovative R&D subsidiary of Kelun Pharmaceutical, focusing on three major technology platforms: ADC, macromolecules, and small molecules [1] - As of the 2024 annual report, Kelun-Botai has over 30 innovative assets and more than 10 drugs in clinical stages, indicating a well-structured pipeline [1] - The company is expected to enter a rapid growth phase in 2025, with promising commercial progress anticipated [1] Group 2: ADC Platform Development - The ADC platform focuses on both oncology and non-oncology development strategies, with research capabilities endorsed by MNCs [1] - SKB264, an optimized drug based on trastuzumab, has a comprehensive layout for breast cancer and non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC), with multiple approvals and submissions expected between 2024 and 2025 [2] - A166 has reached critical endpoints in phase II trials for advanced HER2+ breast cancer and is expected to receive approval in 2025 [2] - The early ADC pipeline includes various targets such as CLDN18.2 and Nectin-4, with new products like SKB571 and SKB107 anticipated to follow [2] Group 3: Non-ADC Platform Development - The non-ADC platform is entering a harvest phase, covering oncology and autoimmune fields [2] - A167 (PD-L1) has received approvals for multiple indications, while A140 (a biosimilar of cetuximab) is also set for approval in early 2025 [2] - A400, a selective RET inhibitor for RET+ NSCLC, is expected to submit for market approval within the year [2] Group 4: Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for the company from 2025 to 2027 are projected at 2.006 billion, 2.884 billion, and 4.696 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 3.8%, 43.8%, and 62.8% respectively [3] - The current stock price corresponds to price-to-sales (PS) ratios of 34.7x, 24.2x, and 14.8x for the respective years [3] - The company is expected to reach a commercialization inflection point in 2025, with numerous catalysts from clinical data and business development expectations [3]