Report Overview - **Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: Although the conversion premium ratio of Bairun Convertible Bond is high, its market price is low and the remaining term is less than 2 years. The company's whiskey business is expected to gradually enter the harvest period, and the convertible bond is expected to have elasticity in the future [5] Company and Bond Information - **Bond Information**: Bairun Convertible Bond (127046.SZ) is AA - rated, with a bond balance of 1.127 billion yuan, accounting for 99.95% of the total issuance. The remaining term is 1.82 years, and the redemption price at maturity is 110 yuan. The closing price on December 5th was 121.84 yuan, with a conversion premium ratio of 154.25% [1] - **Company Information**: Bairun is a consumer - oriented liquor group with pre - mixed cocktails as the core, flavors and fragrances as the foundation, and spirits as the strategic extension. From Q1 to Q3 in 2025, its revenue was 2.27 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 4.89%; the net profit attributable to the parent company was 549 million yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 4.35%. The latest total market value is 23.5 billion yuan, and the PE TTM is 33.79x [3] Key Highlights of Bairun Convertible Bond - **Profitability**: The company's business is diversified, covering flavors, pre - mixed drinks, and whiskey. In H1 2025, the gross profit margins of the flavor business and the pre - mixed drink business reached 70.75% and 70.48% respectively, significantly higher than the average level of about 45% in the non - liquor industry. It focuses on niche markets and has a leading position in the segment, with outstanding profitability [4] - **Whiskey Business**: The company's Laizhou Distillery is the largest whiskey production base in China. As of November 2025, it has filled over 500,000 whiskey aging barrels. In 2025, it launched series of products such as "Bailide" blended whiskey and "Laizhou" single - malt whiskey, covering high - end, mid - end, and low - end markets. With the help of the mature pre - mixed drink channel network, the number of distributors is increasing, laying a solid foundation for future revenue growth [4] - **Pre - mixed Drink Business**: The core brand "RIO" has ranked first in the domestic pre - mixed drink market for many consecutive years, with a market share of 30.97% in 2024. The three - product matrix of "Wei Xun", "Qiang Shuang", and "Qing Shuang" meets the different needs of young consumers. From Q1 to Q3 in 2025, the revenue increased quarter - on - quarter for three consecutive quarters. The jelly wine launched in June and the 12° light - enjoyment series launched in August contributed incremental revenue, supporting the restoration of market share [5] Valuation - Based on the Shanxi Securities convertible bond valuation model, if the stock price remains unchanged and no forced redemption or downward adjustment is considered, the reasonable valuation of Bairun Convertible Bond is between 123 and 128 yuan [6]