Report Overview - **Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: Although the conversion premium ratio of Bairun Convertible Bond is high, its market price is low and the remaining term is less than 2 years. The company's whiskey business is expected to gradually enter the harvest period, and the convertible bond is expected to have elasticity in the future [5] Company and Bond Information - **Bond Information**: Bairun Convertible Bond (127046.SZ) is AA - rated, with a bond balance of 1.127 billion yuan, accounting for 99.95% of the total issuance. The remaining term is 1.82 years, and the redemption price at maturity is 110 yuan. The closing price on December 5th was 121.84 yuan, with a conversion premium ratio of 154.25% [1] - **Company Information**: Bairun is a consumer - oriented liquor group with pre - mixed cocktails as the core, flavors and fragrances as the foundation, and spirits as the strategic extension. From Q1 to Q3 in 2025, its revenue was 2.27 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 4.89%; the net profit attributable to the parent company was 549 million yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 4.35%. The latest total market value is 23.5 billion yuan, and the PE TTM is 33.79x [3] Key Highlights of Bairun Convertible Bond - **Profitability**: The company's business is diversified, covering flavors, pre - mixed drinks, and whiskey. In H1 2025, the gross profit margins of the flavor business and the pre - mixed drink business reached 70.75% and 70.48% respectively, significantly higher than the average level of about 45% in the non - liquor industry. It focuses on niche markets and has a leading position in the segment, with outstanding profitability [4] - **Whiskey Business**: The company's Laizhou Distillery is the largest whiskey production base in China. As of November 2025, it has filled over 500,000 whiskey aging barrels. In 2025, it launched series of products such as "Bailide" blended whiskey and "Laizhou" single - malt whiskey, covering high - end, mid - end, and low - end markets. With the help of the mature pre - mixed drink channel network, the number of distributors is increasing, laying a solid foundation for future revenue growth [4] - **Pre - mixed Drink Business**: The core brand "RIO" has ranked first in the domestic pre - mixed drink market for many consecutive years, with a market share of 30.97% in 2024. The three - product matrix of "Wei Xun", "Qiang Shuang", and "Qing Shuang" meets the different needs of young consumers. From Q1 to Q3 in 2025, the revenue increased quarter - on - quarter for three consecutive quarters. The jelly wine launched in June and the 12° light - enjoyment series launched in August contributed incremental revenue, supporting the restoration of market share [5] Valuation - Based on the Shanxi Securities convertible bond valuation model, if the stock price remains unchanged and no forced redemption or downward adjustment is considered, the reasonable valuation of Bairun Convertible Bond is between 123 and 128 yuan [6]

Summary of Baijiu Co. Conference Call Company Overview - Baijiu Co. is the absolute leader in China's pre-mixed liquor market with a market share of 72%, significantly surpassing competitors, forming an oligopoly structure [2][4][9] - The company has established a comprehensive product matrix covering price ranges from 5 to 15 RMB and alcohol content from 3% to 12% [2][9] Industry Insights - The penetration rate and average price of China's pre-mixed liquor market are lower than the global average, indicating substantial growth potential [2][6][7] - The current market size of China's pre-mixed liquor is approximately 20 billion USD, while the global market is around 510 billion USD [6][7] - China's pre-mixed liquor consumption accounts for only 2% of beer consumption, compared to 7% globally, suggesting significant room for growth [6][7] Market Dynamics - The pre-mixed liquor market in China is characterized by a concentrated oligopoly, with the top three companies holding over 90% market share [5] - Offline sales account for about 90% of Baijiu Co.'s revenue, with major sales channels including hypermarkets, supermarkets, and e-commerce platforms [5][9] Growth Projections - The pre-mixed liquor market is expected to see a volume growth of 4.4% and a sales revenue growth of 6.6% in 2024 [2][4] - Baijiu Co. is well-positioned for stable growth due to its established market presence and ongoing product innovations [3][16] Whisky Business Development - Baijiu Co. is actively expanding its whisky business, having established four production bases and aiming for a coordinated scale of 1 million barrels [2][12][13] - The Chinese whisky market is in its infancy but shows great potential, particularly among consumers aged 18 to 30 who prefer high-priced products [10][11] Recent Product Launches - In March 2023, Baijiu Co. launched the Bailede blended whisky targeting the mid-low end market, followed by the high-end single malt whisky brand Laizhou in June 2023 [14] - The market response to the Laizhou brand, priced between 239 to 499 RMB, has been positive [14] Brand Building Efforts - The company is enhancing brand recognition by participating in international awards, which has yielded some success [15] Conclusion - Baijiu Co. is positioned for continued growth in both the pre-mixed liquor and whisky markets, supported by a strong product matrix, effective sales channels, and strategic brand initiatives [2][16]

Summary of Baijiu Co. Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Baijiu Co. - **Industry**: Alcoholic Beverages, specifically focusing on pre-mixed cocktails and whiskey Key Points and Arguments Pre-mixed Cocktails Business - In the first half of 2025, the overall pre-mixed cocktail business declined by approximately 9%, while the "Mild Drunk" series achieved double-digit growth. The "Strong Refreshing" and "Refreshing" series experienced double-digit and single-digit declines respectively, indicating a shift in market preferences [2][3] - New products such as jelly cocktails and high-alcohol pre-mixed cocktails were launched in Q3 2025, with a sales target of 60 million yuan, aimed at stabilizing and improving performance [2][3] - The pre-mixed cocktail business has grown from around 1 billion yuan in 2018 to a projected 25-30 billion yuan by 2024, with significant contributions from the "Mild Drunk" and "Strong Refreshing" products [3][4] Whiskey Business Development - Baijiu Co. is actively developing its whiskey business, having launched products like "Bailide Blended Whiskey" and "Laizhou Single Malt Whiskey." The company expects to complete 85% of terminal distribution by the end of Q3 2025, although initial sales feedback has been lukewarm [2][5] - The Chinese whiskey market is estimated to be worth 5 to 6 billion yuan, with an average annual growth rate of 21% over the past 8 to 9 years. However, foreign brands dominate the market, accounting for over 70% of market share [2][7] - Baijiu Co. aims to leverage its local distribution system to change the current market dynamics dominated by foreign brands [2][8] Market Potential and Strategy - The company has over 500,000 barrels of base liquor reserves and is innovating by using Chinese yellow wine barrels for whiskey production. There is a potential resonance effect between pre-mixed cocktails and whiskey in consumer cultivation [2][9] - The whiskey market in China is still in its early stages, and significant marketing efforts are required to enhance consumer acceptance and penetration [12][15] - The company has invested heavily in project barrels since 2020, with a production capacity of 31,000 tons for vodka and 5,000 tons for whiskey, indicating strong production capabilities [4][13] Future Outlook - The recovery of the pre-mixed cocktail business depends on consumer spending power and the success of innovative product collaborations [4][14] - If whiskey products can generate significant incremental growth, the company's market value could increase substantially. The company has a comprehensive product matrix and is focusing on brand innovation to stabilize and gradually improve performance [6][11] - The potential for whiskey sales to reach half the size of the pre-mixed cocktail market (12.5 to 15 billion yuan) is anticipated as consumer awareness and distribution channels improve [11] Marketing and Consumer Engagement - Effective marketing strategies are crucial for whiskey, which requires time for consumer acceptance. The company plans to utilize thematic marketing to create buzz and engage younger consumers [15] - Key sales periods such as Mid-Autumn Festival, National Day, and Chinese New Year are critical for assessing market performance and consumer response [12][15] Additional Important Insights - The company has a strong innovation capability in new consumer categories, and monitoring its development dynamics is essential for potential investment opportunities [16]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Bairun Co., is facing challenges with declining revenue and net profit, marking a shift in growth momentum for its core product, RIO pre-mixed cocktails, amid changing consumer preferences and market dynamics [1][9]. Financial Performance - In the fiscal year 2024, the company reported revenue of 3.048 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.61%, and a net profit of 719 million yuan, down 11.15% [1]. - The first quarter of 2025 showed a slight recovery in net profit, which increased by 7.03% year-on-year, although revenue still declined by 8.11% [1][6]. Main Product Decline - RIO, established in 2003, remains the leading brand in the domestic pre-mixed cocktail market, accounting for 87.83% of the company's revenue in 2024, but its revenue fell by 7.17% with sales volume down by 8.81% [2][3]. - The offline distribution network has contracted, with the number of distributors decreasing from 2,164 to 2,068, particularly in the East China region, which saw a 16% decline [2]. Consumer Trends - The younger generation is shifting towards new beverage options such as hard seltzers and craft beers, which are squeezing the market space for RIO's low-alcohol sweet cocktails [3]. - Despite frequent new product launches, the lifecycle of these products is shortening, leading to decreased brand loyalty and repurchase intent among consumers [3]. Operational Challenges - The company has a high sales expense ratio, with total sales expenses reaching 750 million yuan, accounting for over 24% of revenue, which is considered high compared to industry peers [6]. - Inventory levels have increased significantly, with total inventory rising by 33.7% to 1.043 billion yuan, raising concerns about potential cash flow impacts [7]. New Business Development - The company is focusing on developing its whiskey business as a second growth curve, with over 400,000 barrels in aging capacity and the launch of new whiskey products [8]. - However, the whiskey business is still in its early stages and has not yet contributed significantly to revenue, facing challenges related to long aging periods and market education [8]. Overall Outlook - Bairun Co. is at a critical juncture with its main business entering a growth plateau, while new business lines require ongoing investment and market cultivation [9]. - Financially, the company maintains profitability and healthy cash flow, but the quality and sustainability of growth are under scrutiny [9].