今日（6.26）A股多数飘绿，大消费走弱，消费ETF（159928）微跌0.25%，盘中成交额已超1.5亿元！资金面上，盘中获净申购 1800万份，连续第2日"吸金"，最新规模超121亿元同类遥遥领先！ | 5分 15分 30分 60分 = 综合屏 F9 前复权 超级叠加 画线 工具 谷 (2 | | | | | 消费ETF | | 159928 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | F] 2025/06/26 收0.796 幅-0.25%(-0.002) 开0.798 高0.799 低0.794 均0.796 量 | | | | WP | 0.796 | | -0.002 -0.25% | | 0.794↓ MA20 0.807↓ MA60 0.818፤ MA120 0.807↓ MA250 0.797↓ | | | (104日)▼ m | | | | | | | | | 0.860 | | | SZSE CNY 14:16:21 交易中 | 通融 / Q F | | 0.858- | | | | | 净值走势 | | 汇添富中证主要消费 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业定期报告 2025 年 06 月 22 日 把握酒类情绪修复机遇，回归业绩主线 食品饮料行业周报（6.22） 消费品/食品饮料 本周新华社、人民网等媒体均发文指向整治违规吃喝一刀切现象，对于部分地 区过度限制正常社交聚餐等行为从态度上进行纠偏，白酒侧有望对于除公务接 待以外场景产生的冲击带来修复，叠加整体估值处于低位，行业加速触底后建 议逢低布局龙头；啤酒侧关注情绪面修复下，在旺季动销催化中具备大单品放 量结构性增长的标的。此外，新消费短期有所回调，建议关注下半年延续高增 品类的估值切换机会。 海天味业：H 股挂牌上市交易。6 月 19 日公司全球发售 2.79 亿股 H 股股 票在香港联交所主板挂牌并正式上市，扣除相关费用后预计收取发售款净 额约为 100.10 亿港元。 ❑ 核心公司跟踪：白酒积极调整应对环境，小食品、宠物景气延续 五粮液：股东会公司表态积极奋进，环境有挑战不改初心，分红有望进一 步提升。公司股东会表态积极，25 年分红率有望进一步提升。普五坚持 量价平衡，1618 以高质量动销为导向。营销执行提升年，精细化渠道政 策持续推进，成立销售公司、实施市场化机制考核。25H ...

证券研究报告·公司点评报告·非白酒 百润股份（002568） 执业证书：S0600524120010 such@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 郭晓东 执业证书：S0600525040001 guoxd@dwzq.com.cn 研究助理 于思淼 执业证书：S0600123070030 yusm@dwzq.com.cn 股价走势 -17% -9% -1% 7% 15% 23% 31% 39% 47% 55% 2024/6/20 2024/10/19 2025/2/17 2025/6/18 百润股份 沪深300 市场数据 崃州新品正式上市，第二曲线渐入佳境 2025 年 06 月 20 日 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 3,264 | 3,048 | 3,499 | 3,993 | 4,701 | | 同比（%） | 25.85 | (6.61) | 14.80 | 14.11 | 17.74 ...

Investment Rating - The report upgrades the investment rating to "Buy" with a target price of 36.18 CNY, reflecting a reasonable valuation level of 27 times the earnings per share for 2027 [4][5]. Core Views - The company is expected to experience a second growth curve, driven by its dual attributes in beverages and small category wines, particularly in the whiskey market, which is still in its early stages in China [2][3]. - The report predicts earnings per share of 0.81 CNY, 1.00 CNY, and 1.34 CNY for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, indicating a positive growth trajectory [4]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 3,634 million CNY, 4,288 million CNY, and 5,410 million CNY, with year-on-year growth rates of 19.2%, 18.0%, and 26.2% respectively [4]. - Operating profit is forecasted to be 1,091 million CNY, 1,353 million CNY, and 1,774 million CNY for the same years, with growth rates of 18.1%, 24.1%, and 31.1% respectively [4]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 847 million CNY, 1,051 million CNY, and 1,402 million CNY, with growth rates of 17.8%, 24.0%, and 33.5% respectively [4]. - The gross margin is projected to improve from 66.7% in 2023 to 72.9% in 2027, while the net margin is expected to stabilize around 23.3% to 25.9% during the same period [4]. Market Potential - The whiskey market in China is currently underdeveloped, with only 0.8% of the total liquor market share, indicating significant growth potential as domestic brands gain traction [13][20]. - The report highlights that the domestic whiskey market is expected to grow from 55 billion CNY in 2023 to approximately 83 billion CNY by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate of 11% [39][42]. - The company aims to leverage its experience in the ready-to-drink segment to replicate its success in the whiskey market, focusing on consumer education and strategic marketing [8][36]. Strategic Positioning - The company is building a whiskey matrix with its brands, including Baileys and Laizhou, to establish itself as a leader in the domestic whiskey market [33][56]. - The report emphasizes the importance of localizing imported products to cater to Chinese consumer preferences, which has been a successful strategy in other markets [43][44]. - The company is targeting the mass market with affordable pricing strategies, which is crucial for penetrating the whiskey market in China [57].

Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 3.048 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 6.61% [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company, excluding non-recurring items, was 672 million yuan, down 13.65% year-on-year [1] - In Q4 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 662 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 17.97% [1] - For Q1 2025, the revenue was 737 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 8.11%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company increased by 10.39% to 178 million yuan [1] Revenue Breakdown - The significant decline in revenue was primarily due to a decrease in the sales of pre-mixed drinks, which recorded a revenue of 2.677 billion yuan in 2024, down 7.17% year-on-year [2] - The revenue from food flavoring remained stable, reaching 337 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 6.3% [2] - As of 2024, pre-mixed drinks accounted for 87.83% of total sales, while food flavoring represented 11.04% [2] Sales Channel Performance - Offline sales saw a slight decline, while ready-to-drink and digital retail channels experienced significant drops of 43.58% and 30.75% respectively [3] - The number of distributors decreased by 4% to 2068 by the end of 2024, with a notable 16% reduction in the East China market [3] - The decline in sales was attributed to the closure of entertainment venues, impacting the ready-to-drink segment [3] Profitability Analysis - Despite a rise in gross margin, the net profit margin declined due to higher selling, general, and administrative expenses, which reached 35.45% in 2024, up 4.51 percentage points year-on-year [4] - In Q1 2025, the expense ratio decreased significantly, leading to a net profit margin increase of 3.68 percentage points [4] - The company is diversifying into the spirits business, with initial revenue generated in Q1 2025 [4] Spirits Business Development - The company aims to become a leader in the domestic whiskey industry, focusing on high-quality whiskey production [5] - The whiskey aging project is progressing as planned, with the capacity to manage 1 million oak barrels [5] - Two whiskey products were launched in 2024, and the spirits segment is expected to contribute to future growth [5] Earnings Forecast - Projected earnings per share for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 0.78 yuan, 0.93 yuan, and 1.07 yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 34.65, 29.13, and 25.28 [5]

[Table_Title] 证券研究报告 / 公司点评报告 预调酒短期承压，烈酒业务有望突破 事件： [Table_Summary] 公司于 2025 年 4 月 28 日发布 2024 年年度报告与 2025 年一季度报告。 2024 年实现营业收入 30.48 亿元，同比下降 6.61%；归母净利润 7.19 亿 元，同比下降 11.15%。2025 年一季度实现营业收入 7.37 亿元，同比下 降 8.11%；归母净利润 1.81 亿元，同比增长 7.03%，2025Q1 利润增长好 于收入增长。 点评： 2024 年经营承压。分产品来看，预调鸡尾酒业务 2024 全年实现营业收 入 26.77 亿元，同比下降 7.17%，产品结构上移叠加原材料成本下降，毛 利率同比提升 2.42%。食用香精业务全年实现营收 3.37 亿元，同比增长 6.30%，增长较为稳定，毛利率同比提升 1.48%。分区域来看，华东/华南 /华北/华西地区营收分别为 10.15/9.3/5.56/5.13 亿元，分别同比- 6.84%/0.41%/-7.29%/-12.37%，华西地区下滑较为明显。受产品生命周期 影响，鸡尾酒产品 ...

百润股份（ [Table_StockNameRptType] 002568） 公司点评 库存积极去化，威士忌招商可期 ——百润股份 24 年报&25Q1 点评 [Table_Rank] 投资评级：买入（维持） 报告日期： 2025-05-04 | [Table_BaseData] 收盘价（元） | 26.10 | | --- | --- | | 近 12 个月最高/最低（元） | 31.70/15.00 | | 总股本（百万股） | 1,049 | | 流通股本（百万股） | 718 | | 流通股比例（%） | 68.42 | | 总市值（亿元） | 274 | | 流通市值（亿元） | 187 | [公司价格与沪深 Table_Chart] 300 走势比较 -39% -17% 5% 26% 48% 5/24 8/24 11/24 2/25 百润股份 沪深300 [Table_Author] 分析师：邓欣 执业证书号：S0010524010001 邮箱：dengxin@hazq.com 联系人：郑少轩 执业证书号：S0010124040001 [Table_CompanyReport] 相关报告 1.百润 ...

-39% -17% 5% 26% 48% 5/24 8/24 11/24 2/25 百润股份 沪深300 [Table_Rank] 投资评级：买入（维持） 报告日期： 2025-05-04 | [Table_BaseData] 收盘价（元） | 26.10 | | --- | --- | | 近 12 个月最高/最低（元） | 31.70/15.00 | | 总股本（百万股） | 1,049 | | 流通股本（百万股） | 718 | | 流通股比例（%） | 68.42 | | 总市值（亿元） | 274 | | 流通市值（亿元） | 187 | [公司价格与沪深 Table_Chart] 300 走势比较 [Table_Author] 分析师：邓欣 执业证书号：S0010524010001 邮箱：dengxin@hazq.com 联系人：郑少轩 执业证书号：S0010124040001 百润股份（ [Table_StockNameRptType] 002568） 公司点评 库存积极去化，威士忌招商可期 ——百润股份 24 年报&25Q1 点评 [Table_CompanyReport] 相关报告 1.百润 ...

智通财经记者 | 富充 智通财经编辑 | 任雪松 作为预调鸡尾酒"RIO锐澳"（以下简称"锐澳"）的母公司，百润股份正面对收入、净利润双降的挑战。 2024财年，公司实现营业收入30.48亿元，同比下降6.61%；归母净利润7.19亿元，同比减少11.15%。这 一业绩表现与2023年营收净利双增的态势形成对比，2023年高基数效应下，2024年度预调鸡尾酒增长承 压。 这一双位数利润降幅，标志着公司主营业务的增长动能正进入调整期。而这背后最直接的诱因，是其核 心产品"锐澳"系列预调鸡尾酒所面临的品类疲态与消费转向。 企业同时公布了一季度业绩情况，净利润小幅回暖，同比增长7.03%，但营业收入仍然出现8.11%的同 比下滑。百润股份看似稳坐"预调鸡尾酒第一股"之位，但透过收入的连续下滑、结构性瓶颈的暴露、以 及烈酒新业务尚未放量的现实，公司正缓慢驶入一个"利润好看、增长隐忧"的关键时刻。 主营产品下行 锐澳创立于2003年，彼时的酒水行业刚步入"悦己饮酒"时代，品牌以其低酒精度、高颜值包装迅速收获 大批用户。时至今日，锐澳依旧是国内预调酒市场的头部品牌，连续多年市占率第一，其所代表的预调 鸡尾酒业务2024年 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][3] Core Views - The company is expected to continue developing its pre-mixed liquor business with a focus on the 358 product matrix, aiming for positive growth in the upcoming year. The whisky business is anticipated to gain momentum with new product launches and successful channel expansion [3] - Revenue forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been adjusted to 35 billion and 40 billion RMB respectively, with a year-on-year growth of 15% and 14%. The net profit for 2025 is projected at 8.1 billion RMB, reflecting a 12% increase [3] Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, total revenue is expected to be 30.48 billion RMB, a decrease of 6.61% year-on-year, while net profit is projected at 7.19 billion RMB, down 11.15% year-on-year [8][3] - The first quarter of 2025 shows a revenue of 7.37 billion RMB, a decline of 8.11% year-on-year, but net profit increased by 7.03% to 1.81 billion RMB [8][3] - The gross margin improved by 2.97 percentage points to 69.7% in 2024, while the net profit margin decreased by 1.21 percentage points to 23.6% [8][3] Revenue and Profit Forecasts - The company aims for total revenue of 34 billion RMB in 2025 and 40 billion RMB in 2026, with corresponding net profits of 8.1 billion RMB and 9.7 billion RMB [3] - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is 0.77 RMB, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 34.24 [1][3] Market Data - The closing price of the stock is 26.33 RMB, with a market capitalization of approximately 27.63 billion RMB [6] - The company has a price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 5.89 and a total asset-liability ratio of 41.18% [7][6]