作者：金融界银行研究院院长 陈国汪 十五五期间（2026-2030年），中国银行业房地产不良资产处置需以市场化、专业化、法治化、社会化 为核心，构建"政府引导+市场运作+专业处置+民生保障"的综合体系，借鉴美国日本韩国爱尔兰四国成 功经验，结合中国房地产市场"存量庞大、区域分化、民生关联度高"的特点，形成系统化政策方案。以 下为十五五期间中国银行业处置房地产不良资产的几大政策建议： （一）构建专业化集中处置体系，强化机构协同 1.设立全国性房地产不良资产处置联席会议。该会议由财政部牵头，联合央行、金融监管总局、住建部 等组建，负责全国房地产不良资产处置工作。赋予四大AMC强制收购权、司法优先权和债务重组主导 权，专项处置房地产不良资产，处置期限10年。财政部向四大AMC各注资5000亿元资金，用于收购房 地产不良资产。3年内四大AMC每家必须至少收购300万套房地产不良资产，并在余下7年内完成处置。 2.完善AMC与地方政府联动机制。推动四大AMC+省级AMC+地方政府平台三方合作，设立2万亿元左 右房地产纾困专项基金，重点支持"保交楼"和优质资产盘活。同时，允许省级AMC跨区域处置资产， 破除地方保护主义， ...

Core Viewpoint - The structural financing assets in China and South Korea are expected to remain under pressure through 2026 due to ongoing uncertainties in global trade policies, although ratings are likely to remain stable due to risk mitigation measures and existing credit enhancement levels [4]. Group 1: Asset Performance Outlook - Fitch Ratings projects a "deterioration" in the asset performance outlook for China's RMBS and personal auto loans, as well as for South Korean credit cards, while Japan's personal auto loans are expected to have a "neutral" outlook [4]. - The weak economic and income growth prospects in China will exert pressure on RMBS and personal auto loan performance, exacerbated by industry-specific drivers [4]. - If global trade flows are disrupted again, it will further suppress consumer confidence and economic recovery prospects [4]. Group 2: Borrower Pressure and Economic Factors - The ongoing uncertainties in global trade will continue to pressure borrowers, leading to a slight weakening in the performance of unsecured assets in South Korea, despite some relief from loose monetary policies [4]. - In Japan, persistent inflation effects and rising interest rates will continue to pressure household repayment capacity in 2026, although overall asset performance is expected to remain stable [4]. Group 3: Rating Stability - The ratings for structural financing in China, Japan, and South Korea are expected to remain stable in 2026, supported by improved credit enhancement levels and existing structural protection measures [4].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - For Q3 2025, the company reported GAAP net income applicable to common stockholders of $2 million, or $0.05 per diluted share, with comprehensive income of $4.5 million, or $0.12 per diluted share [14][15] - Book value per common share increased to $3.36 from $3.34 as of June 30, 2025, reflecting a slight growth [5][15] - Earnings available for distribution (EAD) were $3.3 million, or $0.09 per share [15] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The MSR portfolio had an unpaid principal balance (UPB) of $16.2 billion and a market value of approximately $219 million, representing about 41% of equity capital [10] - The RMBS portfolio stood at approximately $782 million, up from $756 million in the previous quarter, indicating a strategic shift towards lower and middle-of-the-coupon stack mortgages [12] - The net interest spread for the RMBS portfolio was approximately 2.87%, higher than the previous quarter, driven by increased asset purchases [12] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The 10-year yield ended the quarter marginally lower at 4.15%, with mortgage rates hovering around 6% [4][7] - The average net CPR for the MSR portfolio was approximately 5.9%, consistent with the previous quarter, while the RMBS portfolio's prepayment speeds held steady at 6.1% CPR [10][11] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company adjusted its dividend to $0.10 per share, aligning it with earnings power for sustainability [6] - A strategic partnership with Real Genius LLC was highlighted, focusing on enhancing the digital mortgage experience, which is expected to accelerate growth as mortgage rates decrease [6][8] - The company aims to monitor the economic environment closely while seeking investment opportunities that are accretive to its business [8] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted a reduction in macro volatility and anticipated continued easing from the Fed, which could lead to higher prepayment speeds for high coupon mortgages [4][5] - The company expressed optimism regarding the potential for accelerated growth due to lower mortgage rates, which may encourage refinancing and home purchases [8] Other Important Information - Financial leverage remained consistent at 5.3 times, with $55 million of unrestricted cash, indicating a solid liquidity profile [5] - Operating expenses for the quarter were reported at $3.8 million [16] Q&A Session Summary Question: Regarding the Real Genius partnership, was it opportunistic, or can more partnerships be expected? - Management indicated that while they are not prepared to forecast, they are open to exploring interesting and creative opportunities that align with their skill set [19][20] Question: Thoughts on expenses going forward, particularly G&A and compensation? - Management acknowledged a 12.5% sequential rise in G&A and compensation, attributing it to personnel changes and professional fees, but anticipates costs to decrease moving forward [25][28] Question: Update on current book value? - Management reported that the book value per share as of October 31 was up about 1.2% from September 30, before any fourth-quarter dividend accrual [33]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - For Q2 2025, the company reported a GAAP net loss applicable to common stockholders of $900,000 or $0.03 per diluted share, with a comprehensive loss of $600,000 or $0.02 per diluted share [17][19] - The book value per common share decreased to $3.34 from $3.58 as of March 31, 2025, reflecting a decline in NAV of approximately $6.2 million or 2.7% [7][19] - Earnings available for distribution (EAD) attributable to common stockholders were $3.2 million or $0.10 per share, impacted by the maturity of a significant hedge [17][19] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The mortgage servicing rights (MSR) portfolio had an unpaid principal balance (UPB) of $16.6 billion and a market value of approximately $225 million, representing about 43% of equity capital [12] - The residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) portfolio accounted for approximately 36% of equity capital, with a prepayment speed of 6.1 CPR [12][14] - The RMBS net interest spread was reported at 2.61%, lower than the previous quarter due to the impact of a maturing swap position [14] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The ten-year treasury yield ended the quarter at 4.23%, slightly higher than the previous quarter, with the Agency MBS sector experiencing negative performance due to mortgage basis underperforming [6] - The economic environment showed resilience with low inflation, and the company is closely monitoring the Fed's potential shift towards a rate cut cycle [6][9] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company entered a strategic partnership with RealGenius LLC, a digital mortgage technology firm, to enhance its investment strategy and explore unique growth opportunities [7][9] - The management indicated a potential shift towards a more risk-on investment strategy as the economic environment stabilizes, while maintaining strong liquidity and prudent leverage [9][10] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the economic recovery and the potential for rate cuts by the Fed, which could positively impact refinancing incentives and portfolio performance [9][13] - The company plans to proactively manage its portfolio and adjust its capital structure to enhance shareholder value through improved performance and earnings [15] Other Important Information - The company raised approximately $9 million of capital through its common ATM program and ended the quarter with $58 million of unrestricted cash [7] - Operating expenses for the quarter were reported at $3.4 million, and dividends were declared for both common and preferred stockholders [20] Q&A Session Summary Question: What caused the lower servicing costs this quarter? - Management noted that lower servicing costs were due to deboarding fees from a prior quarter related to the Mr. Cooper acquisition, and a decrease in loan count [24] Question: What is the expectation for leverage moving forward? - Management expects leverage to gradually increase as the year progresses, influenced by economic conditions and potential Fed actions [26][28] Question: Can you provide details on the partnership with RealGenius and its projections? - The partnership is expected to be profitable within the first six to seven months, with dividends anticipated within the first year [33] Question: Are there any updates on the current book value? - The book value per share as of July 31 is expected to remain flat compared to June 30, prior to any third-quarter dividend accrual [39]

Group 1: Product Expiration Overview - In 2024, a total of 260 credit ABS products will expire, with NPL and RMBS products accounting for 89 and 78 products respectively, together representing nearly two-thirds of all expiring products[4] - The top five initiating institutions for expiring products include China Construction Bank, Bank of China, Ping An Bank, China Merchants Bank, and Minsheng Bank, with a focus on RMBS and NPL products[5] Group 2: Product Duration Analysis - Among the 260 expiring products, 237 have had their subordinate securities redeemed, while 23 products, all NPLs, have not been redeemed[9] - RMBS products have an average duration of 5.47 years, with the longest at 9.10 years, while other products like Auto ABS and consumer loan ABS have durations mainly concentrated between 1-2 years[11] Group 3: Product Liquidation Methods - Out of the 260 products, 226 have been liquidated, leaving 34 products unliquidated, which includes 12 normal loan ABS and 22 NPL products[12] - The predominant liquidation methods are warehouse repurchase and original distribution, accounting for over 98% of liquidated products[12] Group 4: Subordinate Securities Placement and Yield Analysis - Of the 260 products, 127 had subordinate securities placed externally, representing nearly 50% of the total[14] - The average yield for subordinate securities in normal loan ABS is significantly lower, typically in the 6-7% range, while NPL products have an average yield of 24.65%[17]