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晶晨股份(688099):盈利能力持续提升,端侧AI开启新程
NORTHEAST SECURITIES· 2026-03-31 05:47
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating expected stock price growth exceeding the market benchmark by 5% to 15% over the next six months [4]. Core Insights - The company achieved a record high in revenue for 2025, with total revenue reaching 6.793 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.63%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 873 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 6.21% year-on-year [1]. - In Q4 2025, the company reported revenue of 1.722 billion yuan, a significant increase of 33.89% year-on-year, although it saw a slight decline of 1.07% quarter-on-quarter. The net profit for this quarter was 175 million yuan, down 23.19% year-on-year and 12.92% quarter-on-quarter [1]. - The company demonstrated strong operational resilience, with chip sales surpassing 174 million units despite fluctuations in the global semiconductor cycle. The gross margin improved from 36.23% in Q1 to 40.46% in Q4, leading to an annual gross margin of 37.97%, up 1.42 percentage points year-on-year [1]. - The company has made significant advancements in its product offerings, achieving nearly 9 million units in sales of SoC chips based on 6nm technology in 2025, with expectations to reach 30 million units in 2026 [2]. - The company has established a comprehensive platform covering multimedia, connectivity, AIoT, and automotive sectors, enhancing its growth potential through a diversified product lineup [2]. - The company is a leader in edge AI chips, with over 20 self-developed NPU chips already integrated into its products. The shipment of edge AI chips exceeded 20 million units in 2025, marking a year-on-year growth of nearly 160% [3]. - The company has formed deep partnerships with nearly 270 global operators in the B2B sector and collaborated with major companies like Google, Samsung, and Walmart in the B2C sector [3]. - Revenue is projected to grow by 25% to 45% year-on-year, driven by the increasing demand for edge AI computing capabilities [3]. Financial Summary - For 2025, the company reported total revenue of 6,793 million yuan and a net profit of 873 million yuan. The projected revenues for 2026, 2027, and 2028 are 8,916 million yuan, 11,101 million yuan, and 13,626 million yuan, respectively, indicating a compound annual growth rate of 31.25%, 24.50%, and 22.75% [4][10]. - The net profit forecasts for 2026, 2027, and 2028 are 1,461 million yuan, 1,876 million yuan, and 2,310 million yuan, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 23, 18, and 15 [4][10]. - The company’s gross margin is expected to improve, with projections of 38.0% in 2025, 38.9% in 2026, and 39.9% in 2027 and 2028 [10].