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“反内卷”政策效果持续显现,关注PPI回升的投资机会
AVIC Securities· 2025-11-16 23:30
Market Overview - The U.S. government shutdown lasted 43 days, raising concerns about the sustainability of U.S. Treasury bonds and increasing uncertainty regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions[2] - In October, multiple financial and economic indicators in China showed a decline, but the long-term positive trend of the economy remains intact, supporting the achievement of annual targets[6] PPI Trends - Since June 2025, the PPI year-on-year growth rate has shown a bottoming recovery trend, indicating a potential economic recovery phase[10] - The report identifies two phases of PPI growth: the recovery from the bottom to the pre-positive peak and the return to overall peak levels, with various industries showing different performance in these phases[14] Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on industries that are likely to benefit from the "anti-involution" policy, including small household appliances, paper, chemical products, and cosmetics, which have shown significant improvement since the policy's implementation[18] - The analysis indicates that cyclical sectors such as non-ferrous metals, construction materials, and machinery have outperformed during the recovery phase of PPI[19] Market Sentiment - The overall market sentiment has improved, with an increase in average daily trading volume to 20,438.27 billion yuan, up by 314.77 billion yuan from the previous week[5] - The A-share market's overall price-to-earnings ratio stands at 22.22, reflecting a slight decrease of 0.16% from the previous week, indicating a stable valuation environment[5] Strategic Recommendations - Investors are advised to maintain a balanced portfolio and focus on sectors aligned with the "anti-involution" and new demand trends, while monitoring key policy meetings and changes in the Federal Reserve's interest rate outlook[3] - The report emphasizes the importance of tracking the performance of industries with low capacity utilization and profitability that are expanding capacity, as these are expected to benefit from ongoing policy support[18]
“重大调整”!中泰签署S26T潜艇项目补充协议:中国产发动机替代德国产品
Huan Qiu Wang· 2025-09-19 02:31
【环球网报道 记者 闫珮云】据泰国《曼谷邮报》、《民族报》等媒体18日报道,泰国海军总司令16日 代表泰国政府在北京与中方签署中泰S26T潜艇项目补充协议,预计该潜艇将于2028年交付。 报道称,泰国皇家海军总司令吉拉蓬·翁维特表示,根据该补充协议,泰国海军订购的S26T元级潜艇建 造继续,但包含重大调整,其中最关键的一项是用中国制造的CHD620柴油发动机替换德国制造的 MTU396柴油发动机。 据泰国公共电视台2024年6月报道,泰国和中国已完成关于泰国皇家海军计划采购一艘S26T元级潜艇的 谈判。时任泰国海军总司令帕因上将2024年5月31日曾表示,这项交易正在等待内阁的最终批准。他还 称,配备先进武器的S26T元级潜艇将是东南亚地区第一艘此类潜艇,将有助于提升泰国海军的综合实 力。 《民族报》称,泰国海军总司令还申明了S26T潜艇项目的重要性,称该项目是中泰全面战略合作伙伴 关系的重要组成部分。他还对双方通过友好协商成功解决了项目相关问题表示赞扬。 2016年,泰国政府批准海军向中国购买S26T潜艇。2017年,购买3艘潜艇的原始协议达成。协议规定, S26T元级潜艇使用德国制造的MTU396柴油发动 ...