丨证券研究报告丨 市场策略丨专题报告 [Table_Title] A 股周论：战略性看多 PPI 主线，补齐全面牛市 拼图 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 复盘 2005 年以来六次 PPI 同比回升阶段下行情走势，六次 PPI 同比回升阶段下，消费和顺周 期是 PPI 同比回升中涨幅靠前的主要板块。其中，PPI 同比降幅收敛的修复过程中，食品饮料 涨幅靠前概率较大。PPI 当月同比由负转正后，钢铁往往涨幅靠前。此外，建筑材料在整个 PPI 同比回升的过程中涨幅靠前概率较高。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 戴清 SAC：S0490524010002 SFC：BTR264 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title A 股周论：战略性看多 2] PPI 主线，补齐全面牛 市拼图 [Table_Summary2] 回顾：PPI 回升有望，成长与顺周期板块涨幅靠前 过去一周，8 月 PPI 降幅收敛，海外算力需求激增，成长与顺周期板块涨幅靠前。2025 年 9 月 8 日至 2025 年 9 月 12 日，从宏观 ...

Group 1: PPI Trends and Economic Impact - Since July, the "anti-involution" policy has led to a rebound in some commodity prices, suggesting that PPI may stabilize and rise in the second half of the year[1] - As of July 2025, the cumulative decline in PPI is 9.6%, with a duration of 37 months, which is longer than the median duration of previous declines[10] - If PPI stabilizes and rises, it is expected to accelerate corporate profits, nominal GDP growth, and residents' income growth[1] - During PPI rising periods, the median year-on-year growth rate of industrial enterprises' revenue is 24.1%, while during falling periods, it drops to 5.4%[21] Group 2: Industry and Consumption Insights - In July, China's retail sales growth narrowed to 3.7%, the lowest in six months, indicating a slowdown in consumer spending[35] - The operating rate of blast furnaces remains above 83%, while PTA operating rates have seen significant declines recently[35] - The real estate market has shown signs of cooling after a brief improvement in transaction volumes[35] Group 3: Macro Policy and Market Performance - The central bank has implemented policies to maintain liquidity and reduce financing costs, including interest subsidies for personal consumption loans[3] - As of August 16, the Chinese equity market has outperformed major asset classes, driven by a strong M1 growth rate and reduced deposit willingness due to equity market gains[2] - The upcoming Jackson Hole global central bank meeting from August 21 to 23 is a key event to watch for potential policy implications[65] Group 4: Risks and Considerations - There are concerns regarding the sustainability of macro policies, potential declines in the real estate market, and increasing geopolitical risks[66] - The high actual interest rates resulting from declining PPI may suppress credit demand, impacting overall economic activity[32]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the chemical industry is expected to stabilize and rebound in the second half of 2025, following a prolonged downtrend and a recent narrowing of the Producer Price Index (PPI) decline [1][3] - The PPI for July showed a month-on-month decline of 0.2% and a year-on-year decrease of 3.6%, with signs of a narrowing decline in upstream industries [1][3] - The chemical sector has experienced a three-year down cycle, with PPI in continuous deflation for 33 months, nearing the end of a historical deflation cycle [3] Group 2 - The chemical ETF closely tracks the CSI Sub-Industry Chemical Theme Index, which consists of large-cap, liquid listed companies from various sub-industries [3] - As of July 31, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the CSI Sub-Industry Chemical Theme Index accounted for 43.54% of the index, with major companies including Wanhua Chemical and Yilong Co [3] - The industry fixed asset investment turned negative in May 2025, signaling the end of the capacity expansion cycle, historically leading to price increases within 6-12 months [3]

Group 1 - The total amount of public fund self-purchases in 2025 has reached 747 million yuan, with 21 public funds announcing self-purchases this year [2][3] - Southern Fund leads with a self-purchase amount of 230 million yuan, setting a record for the largest self-purchase this year [2][3] - Other notable self-purchases include 180 million yuan from Jianxin Fund and 1.73 billion yuan in total from Jianxin Fund from Q4 2024 to Q1 2025, both with a holding period of at least one year [2][3] Group 2 - The net subscription amount for public funds this year has reached 13.713 billion yuan, with equity funds accounting for 1.752 billion yuan, representing 12.78% of the total [3][4] - In terms of net subscriptions, Invesco Great Wall Fund and China Europe Fund rank first with net subscription amounts of 3.039 billion yuan and 2.165 billion yuan, respectively [4][5] - Other funds with significant net subscriptions include ICBC Credit Suisse Fund with over 1 billion yuan and Southern Fund with 823 million yuan [4][5] Group 3 - Morgan Stanley Fund highlights that A-shares remain undervalued compared to overseas markets, with significant expansion potential, particularly in technology growth sectors such as AI applications and semiconductors [5][6] - The domestic macro risks are considered manageable, with a clear trend of declining risk-free rates and increased capital inflow into the market, maintaining a positive outlook for A-shares [6] - Hai Fu Tong Fund notes the effects of "anti-involution" policies, with expectations for PPI to stabilize and recover, suggesting a favorable market performance for growth and TMT styles in the short term [6]

Core Viewpoint - The Producer Price Index (PPI) shows signs of narrowing decline, with a month-on-month decrease of 0.2% and a year-on-year drop of 3.6%, indicating potential stabilization in the chemical industry [1] Group 1: PPI and Industry Trends - The PPI's month-on-month decline has narrowed by 0.2 percentage points, while the year-on-year decline remains at 3.6%, consistent with the previous month [1] - The upstream sectors, including extraction, raw materials, and processing industries, have shown a more pronounced narrowing of month-on-month declines, suggesting that policies targeting mid-to-upstream industries are having a significant impact [1] - The chemical industry is expected to benefit from a rebound in PPI growth, as historical data indicates that the chemical sector often outperforms the CSI 300 index following a PPI turning point [1] Group 2: Chemical Industry Investment Outlook - The chemical sector has experienced a three-year downtrend, with PPI in continuous deflation for 33 months, nearing the end of a historical deflation cycle [3] - Fixed asset investment in the industry is projected to turn negative by May 2025, signaling the end of the capacity expansion cycle, which historically leads to price increases within 6-12 months [3] - The exit of overseas capacity, such as the closure of TDI production lines in Europe and delays in U.S. shale gas projects, combined with domestic policy and global supply-demand improvements, strengthens the expectation of a sector reversal [3] Group 3: Market Activity and ETF Performance - The chemical ETF (159870) has seen significant net inflows, with 315 million in the last five days, 1.176 billion in the last ten days, and 2.588 billion in the last twenty days, indicating strong market interest [3] - The ETF has become the most actively traded product in the market, reflecting a positive feedback loop between policy-driven sector expectations and market capital flows [3] - As of August 11, 2025, the chemical industry theme index (000813) rose by 1.36%, with notable gains in constituent stocks such as Kingfa Technology (9.99%) and Sinoma Science & Technology (8.98%) [4]

Market Performance - The overall market rose in July, with the full A-share index increasing by 4.75% and a median increase of 2.58% across A-shares [1] - The ChiNext index, CSI 500, CSI 2000, CSI 1000, STAR 50, CSI 300, and SSE 50 saw increases of 8.14%, 5.26%, 5.11%, 4.8%, 4.43%, 3.54%, and 2.36% respectively [1] - The steel, pharmaceutical, and communication sectors led the gains, while banking, electricity and public utilities, and transportation sectors lagged [1] - The average daily trading volume in July was 1.63 trillion, a 22% increase from June, indicating further market liquidity [1] Macroeconomic Analysis - In the U.S., high-frequency economic data has been significantly revised downwards, with non-farm payrolls and PDFP both falling below expectations [2] - Despite previous comments from Powell focusing on employment and inflation, the expectation for a rate cut in September remains due to data revisions and political pressures [2] - In China, major economic indicators showed good performance in the first half of the year, with a focus on high-quality development and potential policy adjustments in the second half [2] - The commodity sector, previously undervalued, is expected to see a systematic rebound in PPI, presenting investment opportunities [2] Industry Trends - Overseas computing power, innovative pharmaceuticals, and finance have entered a phase of correction and differentiation after previous gains [3] - Strong quarterly reports and capital expenditures in the overseas computing sector have been priced into stock prices, necessitating stronger catalysts for top stocks [3] - The innovative pharmaceutical sector has seen strong momentum due to recent BD catalysts, prompting a selective profit-taking strategy [3] - Future focus areas include military industry, AI applications, domestic computing power, and consumer sectors, with military and AI applications expected to see significant catalysts in the near term [3] Trading Structure - The market turnover rate increased in July, with electronic, pharmaceutical, and non-ferrous metals sectors showing the highest growth [4] - Conversely, the light industry manufacturing, oil and petrochemicals, and food and beverage sectors experienced the largest declines [4] Strategic Outlook - The overall investment strategy is becoming more aggressive, focusing on growth sectors and deeply exploring cyclical industries at the bottom [5]

Economic Overview - China's GDP grew by 5.3% year-on-year in the first half of the year, with a 5.2% growth in Q2, slightly down from 5.4% in Q1[18] - The industrial added value increased by 6.4% year-on-year, while manufacturing added value rose by 7%[18] - The net export contributed 1.7 percentage points to GDP growth, with exports increasing by 5.9% year-on-year and imports decreasing by 3.9%[20] Price Trends - The Producer Price Index (PPI) has been in negative growth for 33 consecutive months, with a decline of 3.2% in Q2[28] - CPI showed a slight decrease of 0.1% year-on-year in the first half of the year, indicating ongoing deflationary pressures[28] - The expectation is for PPI to stabilize and potentially recover, with projected declines of 2.7% and 1.8% in Q3 and Q4 respectively, narrowing from a 3.2% drop in Q2[36] Policy Implications - The "anti-involution" policy aims to curb disorderly competition and improve product quality, with significant focus on industries like automotive, photovoltaic, and steel[3] - The revised Price Law aims to strengthen market regulation and promote fair competition, which is expected to support the "anti-involution" policy[4][45] - The government plans to implement more proactive fiscal policies and moderate monetary policies to stimulate demand and support PPI recovery[36] Investment Strategy - The focus for investment should be on midstream materials and manufacturing sectors, as they are expected to benefit from the "anti-involution" policies[8] - There is a recommendation to continue allocating resources towards "hard currency" assets like gold and technology sectors, which are anticipated to perform well in the long term[8] Financial Market Outlook - The insurance sector is expected to see improved performance due to favorable policies and a recovering economy, with strong earnings growth anticipated for listed insurance companies[9] - The brokerage sector is viewed positively, with expectations of a bullish trend in the capital markets driven by liquidity easing and policy support[9] - Bank stocks are considered a long-term investment opportunity, benefiting from stable earnings and high dividend yields amidst a low-interest-rate environment[9]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government is committed to combating "involution" in various key industries, aiming to optimize market competition and improve production capacity utilization, with expectations for a rebound in the Producer Price Index (PPI) in the second half of the year [3][6]. Group 1: Policy Initiatives - The Central Political Bureau meeting on July 30 emphasized the need for capacity governance in key industries, including steel, coal, building materials, and chemicals, to address disordered competition [3][4]. - The government has been actively promoting policies to resolve structural contradictions in key industries, focusing on both supply and demand sides to foster healthy industrial development [4][5]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) has initiated measures against "involution" in the automotive sector, highlighting the need for fair competition and the elimination of disorderly price wars [5][6]. Group 2: Industry Responses - Major industries, including photovoltaic glass and steel, are responding to the "involution" policies by reducing production and adjusting pricing strategies to stabilize the market [6][7]. - The China Cement Association has issued guidelines to enhance industry structure and improve capacity utilization, aiming for a return to reasonable pricing [6][7]. - Various industry associations, including those in construction and paper, have launched initiatives to promote high-quality development and combat "involution" [6][7]. Group 3: Economic Outlook - The PPI is expected to gradually recover in the second half of the year, driven by price increases in key commodities such as rebar, coking coal, and thermal coal, as a result of ongoing "involution" policies [7][8]. - Analysts predict that the prices of rebar, coking coal, and thermal coal could rise to 3900 yuan/ton, 1200 yuan/ton, and 700 yuan/ton respectively by the end of the year, contributing to a sequential increase in PPI [7][8].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the "anti-involution" policy in China, aimed at improving the Producer Price Index (PPI) and industrial enterprise profits, thereby enhancing the macroeconomic environment. This policy is expected to benefit from global inflation and the depreciation of the US dollar [1][2][3]. Core Insights and Arguments - **PPI Improvement**: Significant improvement in PPI is anticipated in the first half of next year, with a possibility of turning positive in the second half, which may shift trading strategies from a "barbell" approach to an "inflation" strategy [1][3]. - **Currency Trends**: The US dollar is expected to continue its depreciation, with the Federal Reserve likely to cut interest rates, while Europe and Japan may end their rate cuts or increase rates. The Chinese yuan may strengthen beyond 7 [1][4]. - **Foreign Investment**: If domestic demand in China is boosted and price recovery expectations are clear, foreign capital may significantly enter the A-share market, favoring leading blue-chip stocks, but this would be unfavorable for the bond market [1][4]. - **Market Dynamics**: The anti-involution policy has triggered two waves of market trends, driven by PPI recovery, improved macroeconomic conditions, global inflation, and the interaction of domestic and foreign capital markets [1][5]. - **Policy Differences**: The anti-involution approach differs from previous supply-side reforms by addressing not only production capacity but also corporate behavior, local government actions, and industry self-regulation [1][8]. Important but Overlooked Content - **Debt Market Pressure**: The bond market is facing adjustment pressure due to heightened risk appetite and historically high valuations. Short-term, the bond market may experience a rebound after a sharp decline, but caution is advised against chasing prices during rebounds [1][12][13]. - **Cement Industry Response**: The cement industry is implementing measures such as capacity replacement and staggered production to address the anti-involution challenge, with expectations of an 8%-12% decline in supply this year [3][19]. - **Pork Industry Adjustments**: The pork industry is undergoing supply-side reforms, with major companies like Muyuan actively reducing breeding stock, which is expected to drive up pork prices and impact the Consumer Price Index (CPI) positively [3][25][26]. - **Environmental Regulations**: New environmental standards in the pig farming sector are seen as a means to control production capacity without significant resource consumption, which could also positively affect CPI [27]. Conclusion - The anti-involution policy is a multifaceted approach aimed at stabilizing and improving various sectors of the economy, with significant implications for asset prices, foreign investment, and market dynamics. The bond market, cement industry, and pork sector are particularly highlighted for their responses to these policies.