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中信证券:2026年新能源板块基本面整体有望迎来显著改善 看好储能、风电行业的高景气增长
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-12-26 00:44
Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that the new energy sector is expected to see significant improvement in fundamentals by 2026, driven by domestic systematic upgrades and increased overseas demand, with a focus on energy storage, wind power, high-quality development in photovoltaics, and new growth opportunities in green fuels [1] Group 1: New Energy Development - New energy development is transitioning from "quantity accumulation" to "quality leap" during the 14th Five-Year Plan, with wind and solar power becoming the mainstay of energy supply [2] - The 15th Five-Year Plan is crucial for achieving carbon peak by 2030 and building a clean, low-carbon, safe, and efficient new energy system, with structural optimization expected in various aspects [2] Group 2: Energy Storage - Large-scale energy storage is expected to see a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of around 50% globally from 2025 to 2027, driven by market-driven demand and improved commercial models [3] - The domestic energy storage industry is well-positioned with a complete supply chain, and Chinese manufacturers are likely to benefit from rising standards and profitability [3] Group 3: Wind Power - Domestic wind power is anticipated to grow steadily due to high returns and favorable grid integration, while international support for wind energy is expected to align growth trends [4] - The wind turbine sector is projected to recover prices and profit margins, with opportunities for global market expansion [4] Group 4: Photovoltaics - The photovoltaic sector may face pressure in domestic installations by 2026, with a potential global installation decline of 5%-10% to 520-550 GW, although emerging markets remain vibrant [5] - New technologies such as high-efficiency silicon batteries and perovskite materials are expected to drive long-term growth in the photovoltaic industry [6] Group 5: Green Fuels - The green fuel market, including green alcohol, green ammonia, and sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), is poised for significant growth, potentially reaching a market size of trillions by 2030 [7] - The domestic green fuel industry benefits from abundant renewable energy resources and a complete supply chain, facilitating the transition from demonstration to commercial operation [7]
绿氢储运/氢基能源规模化应用破局路径
势银能链· 2025-08-21 03:06
Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of green hydrogen as a zero-carbon energy carrier and highlights the need for advancements in storage and transportation technologies to overcome industry bottlenecks [2][3]. Group 1: Storage and Transportation - Current green hydrogen storage and transportation technologies include high-pressure gas storage, low-temperature liquid storage, solid-state storage, and organic liquid storage, each facing challenges related to cost and efficiency [3]. - High-pressure gas storage dominates the market due to its maturity, but it suffers from high equipment costs and energy consumption issues [3]. - Liquid hydrogen storage offers high transportation efficiency but is limited by high energy consumption and low-temperature operational difficulties [3]. - The industry faces a "disconnection" in the storage and transportation segment, leading to inefficiencies where hydrogen can be produced but not effectively transported or utilized [4]. Group 2: Hydrogen-based Energy - The hydrogen-based energy sector, including green ammonia, green methanol, and sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), is at a critical stage of technological breakthroughs and industrial validation [5]. - As of mid-2025, there are 83 green methanol projects in China, with 16.9% already under construction and 3.6% completed [5]. - Recent projects, such as the green hydrogen synthesis ammonia project and the green methanol project, have successfully validated the feasibility of large-scale renewable energy hydrogen production and application [5]. - The scale production of hydrogen-based energy can lead to significant procurement of core equipment, stimulating manufacturers to expand capacity and reduce costs, benefiting the entire industry [5]. Group 3: Upcoming Industry Conference - The 2025 TrendBank Green Hydrogen Industry Conference will be held on August 27-28, 2025, in Wuxi, Jiangsu, focusing on the challenges and solutions in green hydrogen storage and hydrogen-based energy [6][7]. - The conference will feature keynotes from industry leaders and discussions on technological advancements and market strategies [6][8].