证券研究报告 公用事业 行业定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2026 年 03 月 01 日 投资评级： 看好（维持） 证券分析师 查浩 SAC：S1350524060004 zhahao@huayuanstock.com 刘晓宁 SAC：S1350523120003 liuxiaoning@huayuanstock.com 邓思平 SAC：S1350524070003 dengsiping@huayuanstock.com 联系人 豆鹏超 doupengchao@huayuanstock.com 重视"双碳"考核 重点氢能项目总结 ——大能源行业 2026 年第 8 周周报（20260301） 投资要点： 电力：重视"双碳"考核及绿电消纳 "十五五"开局之年，计划与市场转型关键期，重申重视"双碳"考核。从考核看 投资方向，1）存量角度看配额机制，参考发电企业碳配额交易情况看，预计钢铁、 水泥、铝冶炼进入碳市场后，将进一步从"绿色"的角度加快供给侧出清，上述高 耗能企业承担"绿色"转型责任。2）增量角度看绿电需求，考虑到"十五五"期间 考核指标从能耗转为碳排放，有利于高耗能企业增强清洁能源的使用，其中绿证 ...

电力设备 | 证券研究报告 — 行业周报 2026 年 3 月 1 日 jiaxiong.wu@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300523070001 证券分析师：李扬 yang.li@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300523080002 强于大市 电力设备与新能源行业 2 月 第 4 周周报 国家能源局定调新能源发展，津巴布韦暂停锂精 矿出口 新能源汽车方面，我们预计 2026 年全球新能源汽车销量有望保持较快增长，带 动电池和材料需求增长。动力电池方面，近期材料价格波动较大，津巴布韦的锂 精矿出口禁令引发碳酸锂价格上涨，重点关注产业链顺价情况。新技术方面，固 态电池迈向工程化验证关键期，关注相关材料和设备企业验证进展。光伏方面， "反内卷"、"太空光伏"是 2026 年光伏投资双主线，马斯克团队开始针对国内厂 商进行调研，光伏设备景气度进一步提升，短期设备订单具备增量订单，长期看 好国内优势材料兑现海外增量利润。国内方面，国家工信部再次点名"反内卷"， 由于白银价格上涨，电池片环节格局正在优化，贱金属导入速度有望加快。国内 已出现高功率组件需求，下 ...

当丹麦马士基集团的集装箱巨轮准备加注第一滴中国绿氨，当上海港的湿垃圾变身航空燃料飞向欧洲， 这不是科幻场景，而是2025年中国能源革命的真实切片。 绿色氢氨醇，这个曾经陌生的化学组合，正在成为全球能源转型的"终极答案"。 它既是风光弃电的"蓄水池"，又是钢铁航运的"脱碳剂"，更是中国重塑全球能源话语权的新筹码。 一场静默的产业海啸，已然来临。 01. 政策"组合拳" 从蓝图到施工图的速度战 中国氢能政策的演进速度，堪称产业政策的"深圳速度"。 2024年7月，中央定调"制储输用"全链条发展，看似常规的顶层设计，实则为后续风暴埋下伏笔。 短短三个月后，国家发改委、能源局联合"亮剑"。《关于大力实施可再生能源替代行动的指导意见》 首次明确：合成氨必须用低碳氢，风光氢氨醇一体化基地要建起来。 这意味着，传统煤制氨的"舒适区"被正式打破。 更具杀伤力的是2024年6月的"煤电改造令"：到2027年，所有改造后的煤电机组必须能掺烧10%以上绿 氨。 你别小看这10%，它直接创造了数千万吨级的绿氨刚需市场，相当于给产业发了一张" guaranteed purchase order"（保底订单）。 2025年的政策精准度更 ...

在重要历史关头前瞻布局挺膺担当，地区发展才能赢得更加长远的未来。"十五五"开局之年，全区推进 高质量发展大会上的动员令放眼未来：集群发展新能源、新材料、绿色算力、低空经济等战略性新兴产 业。 早春二月，乍暖还寒，内蒙古各地经济建设战场已是"马"力全开、一派繁忙。 蒙东（通辽）高端重型基础装备制造产业基地，工作人员正在加工风力发电机零部件。 "基地全部建成后，年产1万套轴承、2000台主机、3000台电机、5000台（套）零部件，可实现产值超 800亿元，带动2万人就业。"主导基地产业生态的内蒙古龙马控股集团相关负责人说。 截至目前，内蒙古新能源装机突破1.7亿千瓦，风电装机在全国率先突破1亿千瓦，新能源发电量连年领 跑全国。 包头稀土高新区国家级零碳园区建设有序推进。"到2027年，园区绿电直供、清洁能源消费占比将分别 超过50%、90%。"高新区经济发展局能源发展科负责人李红旭介绍。 在最近刚并网投运的化德50万千瓦/200万千瓦时独立储能项目和兴安盟50万千瓦/200万千瓦时储能项目 区，为了有效发挥项目并网后消纳清洁能源、确保电网稳定的作用，工作人员正在中控室严密监控设备 运行状态。 乌海20万千瓦/8 ...

绿氢是绿电的核心非电应用，是碳双控政策转向的受益方向 在钢铁(氢冶金)、化工(绿氨、绿甲醇)行业，绿氢可替代煤炭或天然气作为还原剂或原料。绿氢还可作 为绿电的储能方式，是绿电实现长时储存、跨地域运输和非电应用的大规模方案。在"十五五"碳双控代 替能耗双控的政策框架下，绿电不计入能耗考核，拥有绿氢配额或使用绿氢的企业不占用碳指标审批额 度。 综合考虑下游支付溢价能力、替代经济性等因素，航运燃料绿醇、储氢固碳绿氨、氢冶金领域的非电应 用有望受益 绿氢是能量源与下游应用降本的核心，而绿氨是绿氢理想的运输载体，绿醇是绿氢在航运领域的最佳载 体。随着新能源度电成本的下降和电解槽技术的迭代，绿氢正在逼近与灰氢的平价点，从而推动绿醇、 绿氨的应用降本。当前时点支付溢价动力最强的是航运领域的全球龙头企业(马士基等)，此外面向欧洲 市场的高端化工巨头(巴斯夫等)在欧盟EU ETS政策收紧和自身碳中和转型承诺的加持下对绿色甲醇同 样有较强的需求。 智通财经APP获悉，光大证券发布研究报告称，在全球能源转型进入深水区的当下，过去十年的主题是 绿电替代火电逻辑下风光装机的增长，那么未来十年的核心逻辑将是绿电的"非电化应用"——即通过 ...

Core Insights - Hydrogen energy is emerging as a significant player in the global energy landscape, challenging the dominance of fossil fuels that have ruled for over 260 years [2][4][5] - China is the largest producer and consumer of hydrogen, advancing steadily along the entire hydrogen industry chain, supported by favorable policies [2][4] Hydrogen Energy Advantages - Hydrogen is recognized as a "clean" and "efficient" energy source, producing only water as a byproduct during combustion or electrochemical reactions, addressing both policy and market challenges related to carbon neutrality [4][5] - Hydrogen's energy density is approximately three times that of gasoline and four to five times that of coal, making it suitable for various applications from aerospace to everyday household use [4] Industrialization and Application - The hydrogen industry is entering a phase of accelerated application, driven by tightening fossil fuel supplies and increasing environmental regulations [5][11] - Hydrogen fuel cells are pivotal in unlocking a multi-trillion-dollar market, enabling zero-emission vehicles and industrial applications [11][12] Production Challenges - The primary challenge for hydrogen energy is its production, with most hydrogen currently derived from fossil fuels, leading to significant CO2 emissions [6][7] - Transitioning from "grey hydrogen" to "green hydrogen" through water electrolysis is essential, but it requires substantial water and electricity, raising concerns about cost and resource consumption [7][8] Storage and Transportation Innovations - Hydrogen's low density presents significant challenges for storage and transportation, necessitating innovative solutions such as high-pressure gas storage, solid-state storage, and liquid hydrogen [9][10] - The development of integrated hydrogen-ammonia platforms and the "West Hydrogen East Transport" project are key advancements in making hydrogen transport more efficient and cost-effective [10] Market Outlook and Investment Sentiment - Analysts predict that the hydrogen industry will experience accelerated growth during the 14th Five-Year Plan, with increasing demand for green hydrogen and fuel cell vehicles [13] - Investment firms highlight the importance of developing sustainable business models and infrastructure to support the commercialization of hydrogen energy [13]

环境成本将显性化为碳成本，嵌入工业品定价。具备"负碳"或"低碳"属性的 资产（绿铝、绿氢氨醇、零碳园区等）将获得绿色溢价；而高碳资产（工艺落后 的火电、钢铁、水泥、电解铝等）将面临利润的侵蚀。 2026 年 2 月 26 日 行业研究 碳排放双控转型推动碳成本重估，看好绿电的非电应用 ——碳中和深度报告（十四） 要点 在全球能源转型进入深水区的当下，过去十年的主题是绿电替代火电逻辑下风光 装机的增长，那么未来十年的核心逻辑将是绿电的"非电化应用"——即通过绿 氢、绿氨、绿醇等载体，将不稳定的可再生能源转化为稳定的工业原料和热能， 从而解决钢铁、化工、航运等行业的脱碳难题。 国内从"能耗双控"向"碳排放双控"的考核机制转变，使得高能耗不再是发展 的红线，高碳排才是；欧盟碳边境调节机制（CBAM）的实质性落地，迫使中国 出口型制造企业必须寻找绿电之外的脱碳路径。这种剪刀差效应将催生出巨大的 "绿电转化"市场。我们判断，2026-2030 年将是绿氢氨醇从工程示范走向平价 商业化的关键窗口期。 绿氢是绿电的核心非电应用，是碳双控政策转向的受益方向。在钢铁（氢冶金）、 化工（绿氨、绿甲醇）行业，绿氢可替代煤炭或天然气 ...

氢氨肥闭环消纳流程是一种将绿氢、绿氨和绿色肥料生产相结合的绿色循环经济模式，旨在实现资源高 效利用和碳排放最小化。它的原理是通过新能源电力驱动电解槽工作，产生大量的绿氢，再与空气分离 装置将氢气与氮气合成绿氨，液氨经过一定比例的稀释后，与有机肥形成液态含氮有机肥，供当地农业 施用。氢氨肥闭环产业链的建立，将充分利用风光富集地区的绿电资源，实现能源的高效消纳。 2024年7月，国家发展改革委、国家能源局发布关于印发《煤电低碳化改造建设行动方案(2024—2027 年)》提出利用合成绿氨，实施燃煤机组掺烧绿氨发电，替代部分燃煤。为火电厂提供掺氨降碳构建协 同消纳新型电力系统的市场需求，实现液氨的本地化消纳应用。同时，可将过剩的绿氢与绿氨可利用液 氨储罐或者地下岩穴等储能设备储存，作为储能调峰的备用能源，调节新能源发电的不稳定性，最终形 成"氢-氨-肥"这一绿色闭环的电力消纳体系。 重视新能源市场资产管理，开拓能源资产新模式 "十五五"时期，我国发展环境面临深刻复杂的变化，能源的战略定位，既是保障发展的重要要素，更是 牵引发展、实现强国目标的创新方向。一方面，新能源全面入市颠覆了固定电价时代的收益测算模型， 电价波 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Songyuan Petrochemical Industrial Circular Economy Park is advancing its development strategy focused on green energy and zero-carbon initiatives, aiming to establish itself as a national-level zero-carbon park and a benchmark for high-quality development in the regional energy and chemical industry [1][8]. Group 1: Development Strategy - During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, Songyuan City will implement the "1145" development strategy, positioning itself as a "National Comprehensive Demonstration Zone for Green Energy" and promoting the construction of a national-level zero-carbon park [1]. - The park aims to achieve a modern industrial system centered on green chemicals, new materials, and new energy, focusing on the integration of "green electricity + green hydrogen + green chemicals" and "green metallurgy + equipment manufacturing" [1][8]. Group 2: Zero-Carbon Achievements - Since 2021, the park has received seven significant qualifications, including being the first green electricity demonstration zone in Northeast China and a low electricity price demonstration zone [3]. - The park's renewable energy capacity includes one-third of the province's wind and solar power, with a total installed capacity exceeding 10 million kilowatts within a 100-kilometer radius [3]. - Currently, 14 industrial enterprises have settled in the zero-carbon park, with a total industrial output value of 1.816 billion yuan and a carbon emission total of 99,000 tons [3][4]. Group 3: Green Electricity Supply - To address the challenges of power generation and consumption, the park has established a new energy consumption system that allows green electricity to be directly supplied to chemical production facilities [4]. - The park has implemented a long-term power purchase agreement model between chemical enterprises and renewable energy producers, significantly reducing intermediary costs and ensuring stable green electricity supply [4]. Group 4: Green Hydrogen Integration - The park is focusing on the full chain of green hydrogen production, storage, transportation, and utilization, with the "Qing Hydrogen No. 1" project producing 45,000 tons of green hydrogen annually, which is about 20% of China's current green hydrogen production [7]. - The park aims to produce 420,000 tons of green hydrogen and 760,000 tons of green ammonia annually once all related projects are operational, contributing to significant reductions in carbon emissions [7]. Group 5: Future Goals - By 2030, the park aims to achieve near-zero carbon emissions and ensure that clean energy consumption accounts for over 95% of total energy use [8]. - The park's zero-carbon initiatives are positioned as a core engine for the green transformation of Songyuan's economy and a model for energy revolution and industrial upgrading in Jilin Province [8].

Strategic Development - The company officially changed its name to "Guodian Investment Green Energy Co., Ltd." on February 4, 2026, to highlight its focus on the dual tracks of renewable energy and green hydrogen-based energy [1] Performance and Operating Conditions - The company's estimated net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025 is projected to be between 440 million to 540 million yuan, representing a year-on-year decline of 50.88% to 59.97%, primarily due to increased curtailment rates in the renewable energy sector, declining electricity prices, and reduced auxiliary service revenues from thermal power [2] - However, the acceleration of renewable energy subsidy payments has been noted, with 1.271 billion yuan received by August 31, 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 154.2%, which is expected to improve cash flow for the year [2] Project Progress - The Daan Wind-Solar Green Hydrogen Synthesis Ammonia Integration Project commenced production in July 2025 and has signed cooperation agreements with companies such as Korea Electric Power Corporation and Electricité de France [3] - The EPC contract for the Lishu Green Methanol Project was signed in January 2026, with an expected production start in 2028, indicating strong medium to long-term revenue certainty [3] Industry Policies and Environment - In 2026, the coal-fired power capacity price in Jilin is set to increase to 330 yuan/kW/year (up from 100 yuan/kW/year for 2024-2025), which is expected to stabilize the profitability of thermal power [4] - Additionally, the trial operation of the electricity spot market and other policies may still impact short-term performance [4] Recent Stock Performance - As of February 11, 2026, the stock price was reported at 6.56 yuan per share, with a daily decline of 2.09% and a net outflow of 84.5922 million yuan in principal funds; the stock has experienced significant volatility since the beginning of 2026, necessitating attention to fund flows and market sentiment [5]