Core Viewpoint - The "14th Five-Year Plan" has significantly accumulated the quantity of renewable energy, with wind and solar power becoming the mainstay in replacing thermal power. The "15th Five-Year Plan" is expected to accelerate the qualitative leap in renewable energy, driven by policy guidance and structural optimization in various aspects [2]. Renewable Energy Development - The transition from "quantity accumulation" to "quality leap" is anticipated during the "15th Five-Year Plan," with a focus on achieving a clean, low-carbon, safe, and efficient new energy system [1][2]. Energy Storage - Large-scale energy storage is expected to see a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of around 50% globally from 2025 to 2027, driven by the maturation of business models and market-driven demand [3]. - Industrial and commercial storage is entering a high-growth phase due to increased support from various countries and declining system costs [3]. - China's complete energy storage supply chain positions it to benefit from rising domestic standards and profitability, enhancing its global market share [3]. Wind Power - Domestic wind power is projected to grow steadily due to its high yield and grid-friendly characteristics, with a new global growth cycle emerging [4]. - The domestic wind turbine market is expected to recover in terms of pricing and profit margins, while expanding into international markets [4]. - The supply-demand dynamics in the component sector may stabilize, with differentiated growth across various segments [4]. Photovoltaics - The domestic photovoltaic market may face pressure in 2026, with a potential global installation decline of 5%-10% to 520-550 GW, while emerging markets remain vibrant [5]. - Supply-side reforms are expected to lead to a recovery in prices and profitability within the photovoltaic industry, supported by new technologies such as high-efficiency silicon batteries and perovskite materials [5]. Green Fuels - The green fuel market, including green alcohol, green ammonia, and sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), is poised for significant growth, potentially reaching a market size of trillions by 2030 [6][7]. - The industry is benefiting from domestic renewable energy consumption policies and international carbon tax regulations, driving rapid cost reductions [7].

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that the new energy sector is expected to see significant improvement in fundamentals by 2026, driven by domestic systematic upgrades and increased overseas demand, with a focus on energy storage, wind power, high-quality development in photovoltaics, and new growth opportunities in green fuels [1] Group 1: New Energy Development - New energy development is transitioning from "quantity accumulation" to "quality leap" during the 14th Five-Year Plan, with wind and solar power becoming the mainstay of energy supply [2] - The 15th Five-Year Plan is crucial for achieving carbon peak by 2030 and building a clean, low-carbon, safe, and efficient new energy system, with structural optimization expected in various aspects [2] Group 2: Energy Storage - Large-scale energy storage is expected to see a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of around 50% globally from 2025 to 2027, driven by market-driven demand and improved commercial models [3] - The domestic energy storage industry is well-positioned with a complete supply chain, and Chinese manufacturers are likely to benefit from rising standards and profitability [3] Group 3: Wind Power - Domestic wind power is anticipated to grow steadily due to high returns and favorable grid integration, while international support for wind energy is expected to align growth trends [4] - The wind turbine sector is projected to recover prices and profit margins, with opportunities for global market expansion [4] Group 4: Photovoltaics - The photovoltaic sector may face pressure in domestic installations by 2026, with a potential global installation decline of 5%-10% to 520-550 GW, although emerging markets remain vibrant [5] - New technologies such as high-efficiency silicon batteries and perovskite materials are expected to drive long-term growth in the photovoltaic industry [6] Group 5: Green Fuels - The green fuel market, including green alcohol, green ammonia, and sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), is poised for significant growth, potentially reaching a market size of trillions by 2030 [7] - The domestic green fuel industry benefits from abundant renewable energy resources and a complete supply chain, facilitating the transition from demonstration to commercial operation [7]

人民财讯12月26日电，中信证券研报认为，"十五五"是国内建设清洁低碳安全高效新型能源体系的关键 期，新能源有望继续迈向量质并进，并逐步解决电力难消纳、行业内卷和机制僵化的积弊，完善源网荷 储、零碳闭环的多层次协同发展；同时，在能源转型的背景下，叠加AIDC激增、制造业回流等加剧海 外电力紧张局面，全球有望开启电力建设超级周期，新能源将成为全球能源发展和结构转型的关键一 环。在国内体系化升级、海外需求放量的推动下，受益于供给格局和全球布局优化，预计2026年新能源 板块基本面整体有望迎来显著改善，看好储能、风电行业的高景气增长，光伏转向高质量发展，以及绿 色燃料领域的新成长机遇。 ...

中信证券主要观点如下： 智通财经APP获悉，中信证券发布研报称，绿色液体燃料作为航运、航空、化工等领域脱碳的主要抓手 之一，受益于碳税等政策加码以及持续降本，正驶入发展快车道，未来5年有望迎来近10倍增长，远期 市场空间达万亿元。国内厂商凭借丰富低廉的绿电资源，完备的设备供应和下游配套体系优势，加速完 善绿色液体燃料产业布局和商业模式，实现跨越式发展。重点关注：1)绿色氢氨醇一体化生产厂商；2) 电解槽等核心设备供应商。 根据IRENA统计，目前绿色液体燃料制备成本较传统灰色路线普遍高70%-120%，其差异主要来自绿 电、设备、碳源等环节额外支出的"绿色溢价"。 以绿醇为例，该行测算当前主流项目生产成本达4500元/吨，其中电力/设备折旧成本占比分别达 52%/27%左右，是未来主要降本方向：电力方面，受益于风电光伏发电成本稳步下降，以及绿电直连模 式进一步优化用电成本，并保障项目绿电可靠供应，该行测算有望推动度电成本由0.25元降至0.15元左 右(风电或低至0.1-0.15元/kWh)； 电解槽设备方面，碱性电解槽性价比突出，是当前的主流技术路线，但随着技术进步和规模化降本，质 子交换膜电解槽有望凭借高 ...

Core Insights - The "First Future Chemical Frontier Forum (2025 3FCE)" held in Shanghai marks a significant advancement in the construction of a green energy system, supported by various institutions including East China University of Science and Technology and Shanghai Fuke Technology Co., Ltd [1] - The establishment of the "Shanghai Green Fuel Innovation Port International Think Tank" aims to provide strategic consulting and clarify industrial development paths for building a world-class green fuel hub in Shanghai [1] - The release of the "Biogas All-Carbon Directional Conversion to Green Methanol (BESTm) Disruptive Technology" is a key component of Shanghai's 2025 strategic initiative on green fuels, highlighting the potential of green methanol as a marine fuel alternative [2][4] Company Developments - Fuke Technology has shifted its strategic focus from traditional advanced environmental equipment manufacturing to core technologies for energy conservation and carbon reduction, emphasizing three main industry lines: resource utilization of wastewater and sludge, comprehensive carbon reduction services, and green clean energy [4] - The BESTm technology aims to enhance local biogas resource supply and high-value utilization, integrating anaerobic fermentation, biogas purification, gas reforming, and green methanol synthesis into a cohesive process [4] - The company is positioned to leverage recent national policies promoting green hydrogen, ammonia, and methanol, which are critical for the large-scale application of renewable energy [5] Industry Trends - The global shipping and aviation sectors are increasingly focused on emission reduction, with green methanol gaining attention as a viable alternative fuel [2][6] - Shanghai has initiated the construction of a "Green Shipping Corridor" to create a low-carbon logistics chain, aiming to establish a complete industrial ecosystem for green fuel production, storage, and shipping applications [5][6] - By 2030, Shanghai aims to achieve a "dual hundred" target for liquefied natural gas and green methanol fueling capabilities, positioning itself as a leading green fuel service center globally [6]

大会还发布了《船用燃料生命周期温室气体强度计算方法》和《船舶年度达到的燃料温室气体强度核验 方法》两项团体标准，将为航运企业低碳转型提供统一量化标尺，也为全球碳治理提供"中国方案"。 11月17日，以"破壁迎变.共促可持续发展"为主题的2025世界航商大会在中国香港开幕。会上，由招商 局工业集团控股企业华商能源科技股份有限公司与上下游产业链联合发起的"国际绿色燃料联盟"(IGFA) 举行成立启动仪式，首批30余家全球产业机构正式合力共建航运脱碳生态圈。 据了解，由于不同国家和地区能源结构、技术水平、政策机制与市场成熟度差异等原因，绿色燃料产业 的发展仍面临着标准不统一、体系不互认、市场机制不完善、产消对接不充分等结构性挑战。国际绿色 燃料联盟的成立有望应对这些挑战。 联盟将依托港澳战略枢纽地位，共同攻坚破解绿色燃料产业"标准不互认、产需不对接、金融工具缺 失"三大瓶颈。下一步，联盟计划搭建绿色燃料产业信息交互平台，研究和辅助绿色燃料产业政策制 定，牵引绿色燃料示范项目协同和创新，参与制定绿色燃料行业标准和规则，促进绿色金融与碳市场创 新联动，助力香港成为国际绿色燃料贸易中心。 《全球航运公司净零路径实践指南》 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company is actively developing its energy storage and green fuel capabilities, aligning with recent government policies aimed at promoting renewable energy solutions and technologies [1]. Group 1: Energy Storage Development - The company is building an integrated energy storage industry chain, covering power generation, grid-side, and commercial energy storage systems, and has established solid partnerships with major overseas wind power operators [1]. - The company has made significant advancements in gas storage, leading the industry with various storage methods including compressed air, hydrogen, and carbon dioxide, providing solutions for large-scale storage projects in China [1]. Group 2: Green Fuel Initiatives - The company has a comprehensive industrial layout in green fuels, including LNG, hydrogen, and green methanol, positioning itself as an industry leader [1]. - A notable project includes the construction of a 50,000-ton/year bio-green methanol demonstration plant in Zhanjiang, expected to commence production in Q4 of this year, which aligns with regional strategies to develop green marine fuel supply centers [1]. - The collaboration with Ansteel on a hydrogen production project from coke oven gas is projected to produce 15,000 tons of hydrogen and 100,000 tons of LNG annually, significantly reducing carbon emissions [1]. Group 3: Market Position and Future Outlook - The recent government guidelines are expected to accelerate the industrialization of green energy technologies, potentially increasing market opportunities for the company [1]. - The company expresses confidence in its green energy business development and aims to further consolidate its leading position in the industry, enhancing market share and brand influence [1].

Core Viewpoint - The company is actively developing its energy storage and green fuel manufacturing capabilities, positioning itself as a leader in the industry and aligning with emerging market opportunities in green energy [2]. Energy Storage - The company is building an integrated energy storage industry chain, covering power generation, grid-side, and commercial and industrial storage systems, and has established solid partnerships with large overseas wind power operators [2]. - Since 2020, the company has made significant breakthroughs in gas storage, leading the industry with products that include compressed air, hydrogen, and carbon dioxide storage solutions, providing solutions and bulk storage containers for several large domestic energy storage projects [2]. Green Fuel - The company has developed a comprehensive industrial layout in LNG, hydrogen, and green methanol across all stages of production, storage, transportation, and utilization, placing it in a leading position within the industry [2]. - A notable project includes the construction of the first large-scale bio-green methanol demonstration plant in South China, with a capacity of 50,000 tons per year, expected to commence production in Q4 of this year. This aligns with regional strategies to establish a green marine fuel supply center, where green methanol is a core fuel [2]. - The collaboration with Ansteel on a coke oven gas hydrogen production and LNG co-generation project aims to produce 15,000 tons of hydrogen and 100,000 tons of LNG annually, reducing carbon emissions by 470,000 tons, exemplifying the resource utilization of industrial by-product hydrogen [2]. Market Opportunities - The recent guidance and policy developments are closely aligned with the company's strategic direction, likely accelerating the industrialization of green energy technologies and creating potential market growth [2]. - The company is confident in the development of its green energy business and aims to seize opportunities to further solidify its industry-leading position, increase market share, and enhance brand influence [2].

Group 1 - Shanghai is focusing on becoming a world-class modern socialist metropolis by building five centers: international economy, finance, trade, shipping, and technological innovation [2] - Over the past five years, Shanghai has implemented over 3,000 energy-saving and carbon-reduction measures, achieving an energy saving of approximately 1.45 million tons of standard coal [2] - The output value of emerging industries in new energy storage, smart grids, circular economy, green materials, and green fuels in Shanghai has reached 500 billion yuan [2] Group 2 - Shanghai has promoted the adoption of new energy vehicles, with approximately 1.78 million electric vehicles promoted as of the first half of this year [2] - The city has advanced green building initiatives, with a total of 437 million square meters of green buildings and 17 million square meters of ultra-low energy buildings [2] - The recycling rate of household waste in Shanghai has stabilized at over 95%, with a resource utilization rate of 86% [2] Group 3 - Shanghai's local carbon market includes over 400 enterprises across 28 industries, achieving 100% compliance for twelve consecutive years [3] - The balance of green loans from Shanghai's financial institutions is projected to reach 1.44 trillion yuan in 2024, which is 2.4 times that of 2020 [3] - Shanghai is enhancing international cooperation in green low-carbon development through platforms like the United Nations Climate Change Conference [3]

Core Insights - The first domestic green fuel e-commerce platform "Zhongxin Fuel" has been officially launched, spearheaded by the Biomass Energy Industry Branch of the China Industrial Development Promotion Association [1][2] - The platform aims to address the challenges of establishing a reliable green fuel supply chain amid the deepening "dual carbon" strategy, which is crucial for zero-carbon park construction, green transformation in aviation and shipping, and clean heating [1] - "Zhongxin Fuel" integrates resources across the biomass fuel industry chain, providing a one-stop solution for green fuel procurement, logistics, green certification, and management services, thereby facilitating the transition to a low-carbon economy [1] Industry Developments - The platform will expand its fuel categories from current biomass molded fuels to include biogas, bio-liquid fuels, and hydrogen-based synthetic fuels to meet the growing demand for green energy [2] - Continuous collaboration with various stakeholders will support rural revitalization, industrial decarbonization, green transportation, and carbon reduction in the construction sector, contributing to a comprehensive green transformation of the economy [2]