Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The report suggests paying attention to the upside risks such as the Iran issue, and Brent crude oil may challenge the range of $65 - $68 per barrel [1] - The trend strength of crude oil is 1, indicating a relatively neutral outlook [6] 3. Summary of Relevant Catalogs 3.1 International Crude Oil Prices - NYMEX WTI futures contract 02 rose $1.36, or 2.35%, to $59.12 per barrel - ICE Brent crude futures contract 03 rose $1.35, or 2.18%, to $63.34 per barrel - SC2602 crude oil futures closed up 11.90 yuan per barrel, or 2.79%, at 437.70 yuan per barrel [1] 3.2 Crude Oil Arbitrage - **Mexico Gulf Crude Oil Arbitrage**: All listed crude oil varieties (Arab Extra Light, Arab Light, Nemba, Agbami, Forties) have a closed arbitrage state, with reasons including unprofitable imports, low cracking profits, high freight, weak demand, and lack of competitiveness [2] - **Atlantic Crude Oil Arbitrage**: Forties has a closed arbitrage state with limited trans - Atlantic arbitrage space, while Arab Extra Light has an open arbitrage state with an arbitrage opportunity in the US East [2] - **North - West Europe Crude Oil Arbitrage**: WTIMEH, Eagle Ford, and Bonny Light have an open arbitrage state due to good cracking profits, strong demand, and improved cost - effectiveness respectively. Azeri Light has a closed state because of environmental policies [3] - **Mediterranean Crude Oil Arbitrage**: All listed crude oil varieties (Saharan Blend, Azeri Light, Bonny Light, Ekofisk) have a closed arbitrage state due to low demand, high freight, and structural oversupply [3] - **Asia Crude Oil Arbitrage**: All listed crude oil varieties (Murban, Bonny Light, Forties, Eagle Ford) have a closed arbitrage state due to intense competition, weak demand, and narrowed arbitrage space [4] 3.3 Key Market News - Iranian President Pezeshkian stated that the government recognizes peaceful protests and is willing to meet with protest groups - Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu discussed the Iran situation with US Secretary of State Rubio - US President Trump said that the flow of oil and funds from Venezuela to Cuba will end - Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi opposed the "Somaliland" colluding with Taiwan authorities for independence - Cuban Foreign Minister stated that Cuba will not yield to US extortion or military coercion [4][5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests to opportunistically take short positions in light crude oil [1] Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes the price trends of international crude oil futures and the arbitrage situations of various crude oil varieties in different regions, and also provides key market news [1][2][9] Summary by Relevant Catalogs International Crude Oil Price Trends - NYMEX WTI futures contract 01 rose by $0.37 per barrel, a month - on - month increase of 0.64%, to $58.38 per barrel; ICE Brent oil futures contract 02 rose by $0.31 per barrel, a month - on - month increase of 0.50%, to $62.38 per barrel; SC2602 crude oil futures closed up by $0.60 per barrel, a gain of 0.14%, to $442.30 per barrel [1] Mexican Gulf Crude Oil Arbitrage - The arbitrage windows of Saudi Extra Light, Arab Light, Nemba, Agbami and other crude oils are closed, with negative arbitrage spaces; Forties crude in the North Sea, Saudi Extra Light, Saharan Blend and Urals crude present arbitrage opportunities; Cabinda crude in Angola lacks competitiveness [2][4] Northwest Europe Crude Oil Arbitrage - WTI MEH crude oil in the US is close to balance but slightly negative; Eagle Ford shale oil in the US has competitiveness in the Northwest European market; the arbitrage window of Azeri Light crude oil is closed; Saharan Blend crude oil in Algeria has strong competitiveness; Bonny Light crude oil in Nigeria is close to full balance [5] Mediterranean Crude Oil Arbitrage - The arbitrage windows of Saharan Blend, Azeri Light, Bonny Light, Ekofisk and Eagle Ford crude oils are deeply closed, lacking competitiveness compared with Urals crude oil [6][7] Asian Crude Oil Arbitrage - Murban, Dubai and Bonny Light crude oils are negative or close to the break - even point; WTI MEH crude oil in the US almost reaches the break - even point; Eagle Ford crude oil presents an arbitrage opportunity with an arbitrage space of +$1.16 per barrel [8][9] Key Market News - US API crude oil inventories increased in the week ending December 19; Libya's new round of oil block tenders attracted global energy companies, but political instability and infrastructure challenges need to be solved; Nigeria's four major crude oil grades' average daily export volume in February is expected to increase; the monthly rate of US durable goods orders in October decreased; US President Trump pressured Venezuelan President Maduro and threatened to keep the oil on seized tankers [9][10][11] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of crude oil is 0, indicating a neutral trend [11]