2026 年 1 月 28 日 原油：多单持有，Brent 或挑战 70 美元 商 品 研 究 黄柳楠 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015892 huangliunan@gtht.com 【国际原油】 NYMEX WTI 3 月原油期货收涨 1.76 美元，涨幅 2.90%，报 62.39 美元/桶；ICE 布油期货 03 合 约收涨 1.98 美元，涨幅 3.02%，报 67.57 美元/桶;SC2603 原油期货收涨 6.90 美元，涨幅 1.54%， 报 456.00 元/桶。 1、 墨西哥湾原油套利 | 原油品 | 1 月 26 日价差 | 状态 | 简要分析 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 种 | (美元/桶) | | | | Arab Extra | -3.34 | 关闭 | 价差为负，进口不经济。 | | Light | | | | | Arab | -4.71 | 关闭 | 价差更深，缺乏竞争力。 | | Light | | | | | Nemba | -5.5 | 关闭 | 安哥拉原油套利窗口关闭。 | | Arab | | 关闭 | 重质油对 Mars 的价差也为负 ...

商 品 研 究 2026 年 1 月 26 日 原油：地缘驱动走强，Brent 或挑战 70 美 黄柳楠 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015892 huangliunan@gtht.com 【国际原油】 NYMEX WTI 3 月原油期货收涨 1.71 美元/桶，环比+2.88%，报 61.07 美元/桶；ICE 布油期货 03 合约收涨 1.82 美元/桶，环比+2.84%，报 65.88 美元/桶;SC2603 原油期货收涨 10.40 美元，涨幅 2.37%，报 449.80 元/桶。 1、 墨西哥湾原油套利（同前日） | 原油 | 价差 (美 元/桶) | 变化数值 | (美元/桶) | | 变化说明 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Arab Heavy | -3.25 | | 0.06 | 价差负值微幅收窄 | | | Vasconia | -1.14 | | -0.32 | 价差负值扩大，套利窗口恶化 | | | Castilla | -4.51 | | -0.13 | 价差负值扩大，竞争力下降 | | | Napo | -6.45 | | -0.4 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific investment rating for the industry is provided in the report Core View - The report suggests short - term observation of crude oil and warns of the recurrence of geopolitical risks [1] Summary by Relevant Catalog International Crude Oil - NYMEX WTI futures 02 contract dropped $2.83, a decline of 4.56%, closing at $59.19 per barrel; ICE Brent crude futures 03 contract fell $2.76, a decrease of 4.15%, at $63.76 per barrel; SC2603 crude oil futures closed down $10.60, a 2.34% drop, at 441.80 yuan per barrel [1] Crude Oil Arbitrage Mexican Gulf Crude Oil Arbitrage - Arab Extra Light, Arab Light, Nemba, Agbami, and Forties all have a closed arbitrage state, with respective arbitrage values of -$3.78, -$4.82, -$5.95, -$6.65, and -$10.4 per barrel due to factors like high freight, low cracking profit, weak demand, and lack of competitiveness [2] Atlantic Crude Oil Arbitrage - Forties has a closed arbitrage state with an arbitrage value of -$1.95 per barrel due to limited trans - Atlantic arbitrage space; Arab Extra Light, Saharan Blend, and Urals have an open arbitrage state, with values of $2.22, $0.6, and $26.19 per barrel respectively, due to arbitrage opportunities, improved cost - effectiveness, and strong demand [2] Northwest Europe Crude Oil Arbitrage - WTIMEH, Eagle Ford, and Bonny Light have an open arbitrage state, with values of $2.1, $2.5, and $2.45 per barrel respectively, due to good cracking profit and strong demand; Azeri Light has a closed arbitrage state with a value of -$0.36 per barrel because of environmental policy suppression [4] Mediterranean Crude Oil Arbitrage - Saharan Blend, Bonny Light, and Ekofisk all have a closed arbitrage state, with values of -$24.36, -$23.81, and -$27.19 per barrel respectively, due to low demand and structural over - supply [4] Asian Crude Oil Arbitrage - Murban, Bonny Light, Forties, and Eagle Ford all have a closed arbitrage state, with values of -$12.57, -$14.01, -$21.32, and -$11.71 per barrel respectively, due to fierce competition, weak demand, and narrowed arbitrage space [5] Key Market News - Iraq opposes the use of its territory as a springboard for attacks on Iran [5] - The US Treasury Department announced new sanctions against Iran [6] - At least one US aircraft carrier is being deployed to the Middle East [7] - Netanyahu asked Trump to postpone the strike on Iran [9] - Trump is closely monitoring the situation in Iran and keeps all options open [9] - Trump informed Iran that he has no intention to attack and asked for restraint [9] - Venezuela's oil production reached 1.2 million barrels per day in December [9] - Trump is delaying the decision on striking Iran and is consulting internally and with allies [9] - Venezuela's oil industry has been operating through phone and hand - written reports after a cyber - attack on PDVSA [9] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of crude oil is 0, indicating a neutral state [8]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The report suggests paying attention to the upside risks such as the Iran issue, and Brent crude oil may challenge the range of $65 - $68 per barrel [1] - The trend strength of crude oil is 1, indicating a relatively neutral outlook [6] 3. Summary of Relevant Catalogs 3.1 International Crude Oil Prices - NYMEX WTI futures contract 02 rose $1.36, or 2.35%, to $59.12 per barrel - ICE Brent crude futures contract 03 rose $1.35, or 2.18%, to $63.34 per barrel - SC2602 crude oil futures closed up 11.90 yuan per barrel, or 2.79%, at 437.70 yuan per barrel [1] 3.2 Crude Oil Arbitrage - **Mexico Gulf Crude Oil Arbitrage**: All listed crude oil varieties (Arab Extra Light, Arab Light, Nemba, Agbami, Forties) have a closed arbitrage state, with reasons including unprofitable imports, low cracking profits, high freight, weak demand, and lack of competitiveness [2] - **Atlantic Crude Oil Arbitrage**: Forties has a closed arbitrage state with limited trans - Atlantic arbitrage space, while Arab Extra Light has an open arbitrage state with an arbitrage opportunity in the US East [2] - **North - West Europe Crude Oil Arbitrage**: WTIMEH, Eagle Ford, and Bonny Light have an open arbitrage state due to good cracking profits, strong demand, and improved cost - effectiveness respectively. Azeri Light has a closed state because of environmental policies [3] - **Mediterranean Crude Oil Arbitrage**: All listed crude oil varieties (Saharan Blend, Azeri Light, Bonny Light, Ekofisk) have a closed arbitrage state due to low demand, high freight, and structural oversupply [3] - **Asia Crude Oil Arbitrage**: All listed crude oil varieties (Murban, Bonny Light, Forties, Eagle Ford) have a closed arbitrage state due to intense competition, weak demand, and narrowed arbitrage space [4] 3.3 Key Market News - Iranian President Pezeshkian stated that the government recognizes peaceful protests and is willing to meet with protest groups - Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu discussed the Iran situation with US Secretary of State Rubio - US President Trump said that the flow of oil and funds from Venezuela to Cuba will end - Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi opposed the "Somaliland" colluding with Taiwan authorities for independence - Cuban Foreign Minister stated that Cuba will not yield to US extortion or military coercion [4][5]

Market Performance - On December 19, US stock indices collectively rose, with technology stocks leading the gains. The Dow Jones increased by 183.04 points (0.38%) to 48,134.89, the Nasdaq rose by 301.26 points (1.31%) to 23,307.62, and the S&P 500 gained 59.74 points (0.88%) to 6,834.50 [1] Technology Sector Highlights - Major technology stocks saw significant increases: Nvidia rose by 3.93%, Google by 1.6%, Apple by 0.54%, Microsoft by 0.40%, and Amazon by 0.26%. Additionally, AMD surged by 6.15%, TSMC increased by 1.47%, and Broadcom rose by 3.18% [5][6] - Bernstein noted that Nvidia's valuation relative to the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index is attractively priced, currently at a 13% discount, which is in the historical first percentile [6] Company-Specific Developments - Oracle experienced a rebound, increasing by 6.87%, despite previous reports of setbacks in its AI infrastructure expansion plans. Oracle stated that negotiations for a $10 billion data center project are proceeding as planned [7] - Micron Technology continued its upward trend, rising by 6.99%. Its latest earnings report for Q1 FY2026 showed revenue of $13.64 billion, a 57% year-over-year increase, significantly surpassing analyst expectations of $12.95 billion. Adjusted net income was $5.482 billion, a 58% increase, with earnings per share at $4.78, exceeding the forecast of $3.95 [8]

Market Performance - On December 19, US stock indices collectively rose, with technology stocks leading the gains. The Dow Jones increased by 183.04 points (0.38%) to 48,134.89, the Nasdaq rose by 301.26 points (1.31%) to 23,307.62, and the S&P 500 gained 59.74 points (0.88%) to 6,834.50 [1] - Notable technology stocks included Nvidia, which rose by 3.93%, Google by 1.6%, Apple by 0.54%, Microsoft by 0.40%, and Amazon by 0.26%. AMD saw a significant increase of 6.15%, while TSMC and Broadcom rose by 1.47% and 3.18%, respectively [2] Company Highlights - Nvidia's valuation is currently attractive, trading at a 13% discount relative to the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, a rare occurrence in its history [3] - Oracle experienced a rebound, increasing by 6.87%, despite previous reports of setbacks in its AI infrastructure expansion plans. Oracle clarified that negotiations for a $10 billion data center project are proceeding as planned [4][5] - Micron Technology continued its upward trend, rising by 6.99%. Its latest earnings report for Q1 FY2026 showed revenue of $13.64 billion, a 57% increase year-over-year, significantly exceeding analyst expectations [5] Commodity Market - On December 19, COMEX silver futures rose by 3.34%, reaching a record high of $67.395 per ounce. Additionally, NYMEX crude oil futures closed at $56.54 per barrel, up 0.96%, while ICE Brent crude futures increased by 1.04% to $60.12 per barrel [5]

记者丨李益文 编辑丨叶映橙 12月16日，国际原油期货价格突然直线跳水， 截至当日22:04， WTI原油期货日内跌幅达2.06%，现报55.65美元/桶。ICE布油跌近2%报59.62 美元/桶， 失守60美元关口，为5月以来首次。 这一判断也得到国际权威机构报告的充分印证。国际货币基金组织（IMF）2025年10月发布的《世界经济展望报告》预计，2025年全球经济增 速为3.2%，2026年为3.1%，虽较4月预测值有所上调，但仍低于2024年增速。 消息面上，据新华财经，12月16日晚9:30，美国公布最新非农数据，11月季调后非农就业人口录得6.4万人，高于市场普遍预期。美国11月失 业率录得4.6%，为2021年9月以来新高。美国劳工统计局下修8月和9月非农数据，两月合计新增就业比初值少3.3万人，8月由-0.4万修正为-2.6 万。 非农数据公布后，国际油价快速跳水，WTI原油、布油跌破60美元后加速下挫。现货黄金上扬逾20美元，最高至4330美元/盎司。 这一轮价格跳水是近期油价持续下行趋势的延续。截至12月15日，ICE布油年内跌幅达19.13%，WTI原油年内跌幅更是扩大至20.97%，两大 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Hold short positions in crude oil and pay attention to geopolitical disturbances [1] Core Viewpoints - On December 12, 2025, NYMEX WTI futures contract 01 fell $0.86, or 1.47%, to $57.60 per barrel; ICE Brent futures contract 02 fell $0.93, or 1.49%, to $61.28 per barrel; SC2601 crude oil futures closed down 6.40 yuan per barrel, or 1.45%, to 434.80 yuan per barrel [1] - The trend strength of crude oil is -1, indicating a bearish outlook [10] Summary by Directory 1. Mexican Gulf Crude Oil Arbitrage - The arbitrage windows for various crude oils such as Arab Extra Light, Arab Light, Nemba, etc., are closed, with negative arbitrage spaces ranging from -1.16 to -8.39 USD/barrel, showing weak competitiveness [2] 2. Atlantic Crude Oil Arbitrage - Forties has no cost - advantage against Bonny Light, with an arbitrage space of -0.3 USD/barrel; Arab Extra Light and Saharan Blend present arbitrage opportunities with spaces of 0.93 and 2.68 USD/barrel respectively; Urals has a huge arbitrage space of 23.2 USD/barrel due to sanctions [4] 3. Northwest Europe Crude Oil Arbitrage - WTI MEH, Eagle Ford, Saharan Blend, and Bonny Light show arbitrage opportunities against Forties, with arbitrage spaces ranging from 0.9 to 2.23 USD/barrel; Azeri Light has a weak arbitrage space [5] 4. Mediterranean Crude Oil Arbitrage - The arbitrage windows for Saharan Blend, Azeri Light, Bonny Light, Ekofisk, and Eagle Ford against Urals are closed, with large negative arbitrage spaces, indicating weak competitiveness [6][7] 5. Asian Crude Oil Arbitrage - Duri, Napo, and Mars against Dubai present arbitrage opportunities, with spaces of 1.2, 5.08, and 1.33 USD/barrel respectively; Basrah Heavy and Maya have closed arbitrage windows [8] 6. Key Market News - Trump promised to contribute to Ukraine's security efforts if Russia - Ukraine peace agreement is reached; Trump mentioned that actions in Venezuela will soon take place on land; the Central Economic Work Conference was held on December 10 - 11 [11]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint - Hold short positions in crude oil and monitor geopolitical disturbances [1] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 International Crude Oil - NYMEX WTI futures contract 01 rose by $0.21, or 0.36%, to $58.46 per barrel; ICE Brent futures contract 02 rose by $0.27, or 0.44%, to $62.21 per barrel; SC2601 crude oil futures closed down by 3.80 yuan per barrel, or 0.86%, to 440.50 yuan per barrel [1] 3.2 Mexican Gulf Crude Oil Arbitrage - The arbitrage windows of Saudi extra - light crude, Angolan crude, Nigerian crude, North Sea crude, and some Saudi heavy crude are closed; Vasconia crude shows a weak arbitrage opportunity; Ecuador's Napo crude has a significant arbitrage space; Maya crude is close to the break - even point [2][4] 3.3 Atlantic Crude Oil Arbitrage - Forties and Cabinda crudes have insufficient competitiveness; Arab Extra Light and Saharan Blend crudes show arbitrage opportunities, with Urals crude having a huge arbitrage space due to sanctions - related discounts [4] 3.4 Northwest Europe Crude Oil Arbitrage - WTI MEH, Eagle Ford, Saharan Blend, and Bonny Light crudes present arbitrage opportunities; Azeri Light crude has a weak arbitrage space [6] 3.5 Mediterranean Crude Oil Arbitrage - The arbitrage windows of Saharan Blend, Azeri Light, Bonny Light, Ekofisk, and Eagle Ford crudes against Urals are all closed [7][8] 3.6 Asian Crude Oil Arbitrage - Duri, Napo, and Mars crudes show arbitrage opportunities; Basrah Heavy and Maya crudes have their arbitrage windows closed [9] 3.7 Key Market News - Venezuelan opposition leader Machado fled the country; the Fed announced short - term bond purchases and a 25BP interest rate cut; the US seized a Venezuelan oil tanker; Venezuela's President Maduro made a tough statement; a Russian "shadow fleet" oil tanker was sunk in the Black Sea [12] 3.8 Trend Intensity - The crude oil trend intensity is - 1, indicating a bearish outlook [11]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report indicates that the short - term trend of crude oil is volatile, and it is recommended to continue holding short positions. The current trend strength of crude oil is - 1, suggesting a bearish outlook [1][10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 International Crude Oil Prices - NYMEX WTI 01 futures contract rose $0.31/barrel, a 0.53% increase, closing at $58.95/barrel. - ICE Brent 02 futures contract rose $0.22/barrel, a 0.35% increase, closing at $62.67/barrel. - SC2601 crude oil futures rose 1.60 yuan/barrel, a 0.36% increase, closing at 450.90 yuan/barrel [1]. 3.2 Mexican Gulf Crude Oil Arbitrage - The arbitrage windows of various crude oils such as Arab Extra Light, Arab Light, Nemba, etc., are mostly closed, with different negative arbitrage spaces. For example, Arab Extra Light has an arbitrage space of -$5.68/barrel [2]. 3.3 Atlantic Crude Oil Arbitrage - Forties crude oil shows a slight negative arbitrage, with a trade volume of 36 MB/D in October. - Arab Extra Light's arbitrage window is slightly open but has no actual trade volume. - Saharan Blend has a significant arbitrage space, with a trade volume of 9 MB/D in October [5]. 3.4 Northwest European Crude Oil Arbitrage - The arbitrage windows of WTI MEH, Eagle Ford, Azeri Light, etc., are open, with different positive arbitrage spaces. For example, Eagle Ford has an arbitrage space of $1.27/barrel [6]. 3.5 Mediterranean Crude Oil Arbitrage - The arbitrage windows of Saharan Blend, Azeri Light, Bonny Light, etc., are deeply closed. For example, Saharan Blend has an arbitrage space of -$16.12/barrel [7]. 3.6 Asian Crude Oil Arbitrage - Duri and Napo crude oils have open arbitrage windows but no recent trade volume. Basrah Heavy and Maya crude oils' arbitrage windows are closed [8]. 3.7 Key Market News - Venezuelan President Maduro said he had a phone call with US President Trump about 10 days ago. - Venezuela's oil exports in November rose slightly to about 921,000 barrels per day, the third - highest monthly average this year. - US EIA crude inventory and gasoline inventory data for the week ending November 28 deviated from expectations. - PBOC Governor Pan Gongsheng mentioned in an article about monetary policy adjustments [9][10][11].