Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Geopolitical disturbances, expectations of peak demand season, and crude oil supply pressure are in a state of mutual restraint, causing international oil prices to fluctuate at high levels. If geopolitical risks ease later, the downward pressure on oil prices will increase. The maintenance of Tianjin Petrochemical's PX plant has led to a contraction in the weekly domestic supply, while the operating rate of downstream PTA has remained stable. Boosted by the overall strong atmosphere in the commodity market, the PX processing fee has recovered on a month - on - month basis. However, on Friday, the market sentiment significantly cooled down, and the PX price weakened sharply, but the supply - demand fundamentals still provide some support at the lower end [8]. - The strengthening of cost support is the main driver for the rise in PTA prices this week. From the perspective of supply - demand, there have been limited changes in the domestic supply side, but the downstream demand has remained weak. The supply - demand has maintained a weak pattern, and inventories have continued to accumulate. The short - term weak trend is expected to continue. Recently, the PTA spot processing fee has been compressed to a low level of around 200 yuan/ton. Many large - scale plants are planning maintenance in August, and it is expected that the supply will decline. There is an expectation of marginal improvement in the supply - demand side, and the downward support is expected to strengthen, but close attention still needs to be paid to the trends on the cost side [8]. - Driven by the cost side this week, ethylene glycol has shown a strong performance. The increase in the ethylene glycol price has led to a slight recovery in the oil - based production profit, but the significant increase in coal prices has resulted in little change in the coal - based production profit. Ethylene glycol currently maintains a tight balance. The port inventory has slightly decreased compared to last week but has rebounded compared to the beginning of the week, with a limited inventory accumulation amplitude. Two Saudi plants have recently restarted, and it is expected that the subsequent arrival volume will gradually increase. Currently, the fundamental contradictions of ethylene glycol itself are not prominent, and the driving force mainly comes from the cost side. On Friday night, as the market sentiment cooled down and the prices of crude oil and coal weakened sharply, ethylene glycol also followed the cost decline [8]. - Although the cost - side prices have continued to rise, the processing fees of polyester downstream products have weakened on a month - on - month basis, highlighting the insufficient demand - side carrying capacity and weak performance. Overall, the supply - demand contradictions of short - fiber itself are not prominent. The improvement in the commodity atmosphere has stimulated short - term replenishment by downstream customers, and the inventory has decreased. Its price mainly fluctuates following the raw materials. The price of bottle - grade polyester chips has been oscillating strongly supported by the cost. Its operating rate has slightly decreased, and the marginal changes in supply - demand are limited. The short - term trend also mainly follows the upstream costs [8]. - The weak situation of the polyester industry itself remains unchanged. The polyester operating rate has continuously declined, and the weaving operating rate and textile orders have only maintained a low - level operation. The fundamental support is weak, and the expectations are also weak. This week, driven by the overall commodity sentiment, the prices of polyester industry chain products have shown a strong performance. However, on Friday night, the market sentiment declined. In terms of operation, attention can be paid to the short - selling opportunities that may arise when the fundamental driving force and price trend return to synchronization [8]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Changes of Polyester Industry Chain Products - From July 18th to July 25th, NYMEX crude oil futures decreased from $66.03/barrel to $65.07/barrel, a decrease of $0.96/barrel or 1.5%; ICE Brent crude oil futures decreased from $69.23/barrel to $67.6/barrel, a decrease of $1.63/barrel or 2.4%; domestic crude oil futures decreased from 532 yuan/barrel to 512.9 yuan/barrel, a decrease of 19.1 yuan/barrel or 3.6%. The price of CFR naphtha in Japan decreased slightly from $576.38/ton to $576.13/ton, a decrease of $0.25/ton or 0.0%. The price of CFR PX in China increased from 838.33 yuan/ton to 855.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 17.34 yuan/ton or 2.1%. The spot price of PTA in East China increased from 4782 yuan/ton to 4900 yuan/ton, an increase of 118 yuan/ton or 2.5%. The spot price of ethylene glycol in East China increased from 4429 yuan/ton to 4579 yuan/ton, an increase of 150 yuan/ton or 3.4%. The spot price of polyester chips in East China increased from 5825 yuan/ton to 5925 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton or 1.7%. The spot price of polyester staple fiber in East China increased from 6570 yuan/ton to 6615 yuan/ton, an increase of 45 yuan/ton or 0.7%. The spot price of polyester bottle - grade chips in East China increased from 5950 yuan/ton to 6080 yuan/ton, an increase of 130 yuan/ton or 2.2%. The spot price of polyester filament POY in East China increased from 6550 yuan/ton to 6700 yuan/ton, an increase of 150 yuan/ton or 2.3%. The spot price of polyester filament FDY in East China increased from 7800 yuan/ton to 7925 yuan/ton, an increase of 125 yuan/ton or 1.6%. The spot price of polyester filament DTY in East China increased from 6800 yuan/ton to 7000 yuan/ton, an increase of 200 yuan/ton or 2.9%. The spot price of polyester industrial yarn in East China decreased from 9000 yuan/ton to 8700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 300 yuan/ton or 3.3%. The prices of 300T 50D*50D Ditaff and 210T 75D*75D Chunyafang remained unchanged [2]. PX Supply - Demand Balance - Supply changes: During the week, Tianjin Petrochemical carried out maintenance. The two 1.6 - million - ton units of Fuhai Chuang, one 1 - million - ton unit of Weilian Chemical, and one 700,000 - ton unit of Fujia Dahua continued maintenance. This week, the domestic PX output was 694,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.42%. The weekly average domestic PX capacity utilization rate was 82.81%, a month - on - month increase of 0.35% [3]. - Weekly balance: From May 9th, 2025, to August 1st, 2025 (forecast), the PX supply - demand difference has generally shown a negative value, and the inventory has been decreasing. For example, on July 25th, 2025, the PX supply - demand difference was - 99,200 tons, and the ending inventory was 3.7244 million tons [3]. PTA Supply - Demand Balance - Supply changes: There were no new changes in domestic plants during the week, and the domestic PTA supply remained stable. From July 18th to July 24th, 2025, the domestic PTA output was 1.445 million tons, the same as last week, and 39,400 tons higher than the same period last year. The weekly average domestic PTA capacity utilization rate was 80.76%, the same as last week and 0.97% higher than the same period last year [4]. - Weekly balance: From May 9th, 2025, to August 1st, 2025 (forecast), the PTA supply - demand difference has been positive in most periods, and the inventory has been gradually increasing. For example, on July 25th, 2025, the PTA supply - demand difference was 45,500 tons, and the ending inventory was 3.8038 million tons [4]. MEG Supply - Demand Balance - Supply changes: This week, the load of some units in the petroleum - integrated plants was slightly adjusted, with no maintenance or restart. In terms of coal - chemical industry, Yangmei Shouyang's plant restarted after maintenance, Inner Mongolia Jinyuan's plant restarted after a short - term shutdown, and the load of Xinjiang Zhongkun's plant increased, as did the load of Shanxi Meijin. This week, the total domestic ethylene glycol capacity utilization rate was 59.20%, a month - on - month increase of 0.71%. This week, the weekly output of Chinese ethylene glycol enterprises was 359,900 tons, an increase of 43,000 tons compared to last week, a month - on - month increase of 1.22% [5]. - Weekly balance: From May 9th, 2025, to August 1st, 2025 (forecast), the MEG supply - demand difference has generally been negative, and the inventory has been decreasing. For example, on July 25th, 2025, the MEG supply - demand difference was - 36,800 tons, and the ending inventory was 1.8424 million tons [6]. Polyester Products - Polyester staple fiber: Downstream replenishment has stimulated short - fiber inventory reduction, but the spot processing fee has continued to decline. The short - fiber operating rate has decreased, and the output has decreased by 3,100 tons month - on - month, a decrease of 1.90% [57][66]. - Polyester bottle - grade chips: The raw material prices have shown a strong performance, and the bottle - grade chips processing fee has been slightly compressed. The operating rate has slightly decreased, and the marginal changes in supply - demand are limited [71]. - Polyester, filament, weaving, and dyeing: The terminal demand remains weak, and the inventory has increased significantly. The filament operating rate has decreased, and the polyester operating rate has decreased by 0.29% month - on - month. The filament production and sales have increased significantly, and the inventory has decreased rapidly. The filament production profit has recovered. The textile enterprise operating rate has continuously decreased, and the downstream overall performance has been weak. The pure - polyester yarn operating rate has decreased, and the inventory has increased [81][82][85].

Group 1 - The recent volatility in the international crude oil futures market is driven by geopolitical factors in the Middle East, leading to a significant price increase followed by a sharp decline as tensions eased [1][2] - Following the U.S. airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, WTI and ICE Brent crude futures reached around $80, marking a new high since January, with concerns over potential blockage of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical oil transport route [2] - The likelihood of Iran completely blocking the Strait of Hormuz is considered low due to military, economic, and public pressure factors, despite the Strait handling approximately 20 million barrels of oil transport daily [2] Group 2 - The announcement of a ceasefire agreement between Iran and Israel, accepted by Iran, led to a dramatic reversal in oil prices, with ICE Brent crude dropping by 8% and WTI crude falling by 9%, erasing nearly all gains from the previous two weeks [3] - Following the ceasefire, oil prices continued to fluctuate at lower levels, with WTI and ICE Brent futures dropping over 2% to around $67 [3] - OPEC+ has announced production increases for three consecutive months, extending a voluntary production cut of 2.2 million barrels per day until March 2025, despite actual production increases in April and May exceeding planned levels [3]

Market Review - The A-share and Hong Kong stock indices experienced fluctuations this week, with a general decline on Friday due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East leading to capital outflows from risk assets. The A-share market saw increased trading volume, with most major indices closing lower, except for the ChiNext and micro-cap indices which rose. The North China 50 and Sci-Tech 50 indices were the biggest losers. In terms of sectors, A-shares in non-ferrous metals, oil and petrochemicals, and agriculture led the gains, while food and beverage, home appliances, and building materials lagged. Notably, rare earth permanent magnets and oil and gas extraction sectors strengthened due to external disturbances. In commodities, risk aversion drove oil prices and gold to rise significantly, with WTI crude oil and ICE Brent crude futures increasing by over 13%, and COMEX gold rising by 3.3%. The US dollar index fell below 98, while the RMB exchange rate fluctuated [1][2]. Market Outlook - The upcoming 6.18 Lujiazui Forum is anticipated to be a significant event for the A-share market, with expectations of new financial policies being announced. Recent negotiations between China and the US in London have met market expectations, but geopolitical issues in the Middle East have caused short-term fluctuations in global risk appetite. The core factors affecting the A-share market remain structural issues rather than external geopolitical events. The risk premium for the CSI 300 index has dropped to its lowest level since April, indicating a need for sustained economic fundamentals or incremental policies to boost risk appetite. The forum is expected to provide insights into major financial policies that could support market sentiment and contribute to a stable upward trend in A-shares [2][3]. Economic Fundamentals - The economic fundamentals indicate persistent challenges, including insufficient domestic demand and low prices, which continue to constrain corporate profitability. In May, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell by 0.1% year-on-year, slightly better than market expectations, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 3.3% year-on-year, marking an expansion in the decline for the 32nd consecutive month. The low PPI is attributed to both external factors like falling oil prices and internal issues such as insufficient effective demand and overcapacity in certain industries. To boost prices, it is essential to expand effective demand and streamline supply-demand cycles, requiring coordinated efforts across fiscal, monetary, industrial, employment, and social security policies. Historical data shows a positive correlation between PPI and the profit growth of non-financial A-share companies, suggesting that a return to rising price levels will depend on the effective implementation of policies [3]. Policy Expectations - The 6.18 Lujiazui Forum, scheduled for June 18-19, is expected to unveil several significant financial policies, with the market showing anticipation for these new regulations. The forum will feature key officials from the central bank and financial regulatory bodies, and it has historically served as a platform for announcing major policies and signaling important developments in financial regulation. This year's forum will focus on topics such as financial openness, global economic changes, and the sustainable development of capital markets, which are likely to support investor sentiment and risk appetite [2][3]. Sector Allocation - In terms of sector allocation, a balanced approach is recommended, with a focus on non-ferrous metals, military industry, AI applications (both software and hardware), and innovative pharmaceuticals. Thematic investments should also consider areas such as self-sufficiency and mergers and acquisitions [3].

美股三大指数集体收跌 美东时间5月20日，美股三大指数收跌，标普500指数结束六连涨，市场持续关注美股财报情 况与国际贸易局势。 Wind数据显示，道指跌114.83点，跌幅为0.27%，报42677.24点；纳指跌72.75点，跌幅 为0.38%，报19142.71点；标普500指数跌23.14点，跌幅为0.39%，报5940.46点。 美东时间5月20日，美股三大指数集体收跌， 标普500指数结束六连涨 ，市场持续关注美股 财报情况与国际贸易局势。 热门中概股涨跌不一，纳斯达克中国金龙指数（HXC）小幅收跌0.65%； 美股科技股多数下 跌，万得美国科技七巨头指数下跌0.7% 美东时间5月20日， 国际金价大涨， 美国WTI原油小幅走低 。 金价大涨 美东时间5月20日，国际金价大涨。截至收盘，COMEX黄金期货收涨1.83%，报3292.6美 元/盎司；COMEX白银期货收涨2.32%，报33.26美元/盎司。 北京时间5月21日， Wind数 据显示， 现货黄金短暂突破3300美元大关 。截至北京时间6:32，伦敦金现涨0.22%， COMEX黄金期货涨0.57%。 | 伦敦金现 | 伦敦银现 | C ...