Group 1 - The recent volatility in the international crude oil futures market is driven by geopolitical factors in the Middle East, leading to a significant price increase followed by a sharp decline as tensions eased [1][2] - Following the U.S. airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, WTI and ICE Brent crude futures reached around $80, marking a new high since January, with concerns over potential blockage of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical oil transport route [2] - The likelihood of Iran completely blocking the Strait of Hormuz is considered low due to military, economic, and public pressure factors, despite the Strait handling approximately 20 million barrels of oil transport daily [2] Group 2 - The announcement of a ceasefire agreement between Iran and Israel, accepted by Iran, led to a dramatic reversal in oil prices, with ICE Brent crude dropping by 8% and WTI crude falling by 9%, erasing nearly all gains from the previous two weeks [3] - Following the ceasefire, oil prices continued to fluctuate at lower levels, with WTI and ICE Brent futures dropping over 2% to around $67 [3] - OPEC+ has announced production increases for three consecutive months, extending a voluntary production cut of 2.2 million barrels per day until March 2025, despite actual production increases in April and May exceeding planned levels [3]

证券研究报告|投资策略周报 [Table_Date] 2025 年 06 月 15 日 [Table_Title] 聚焦 6.18 陆家嘴论坛，A 股上攻行情仍在路上 [Table_Title2] 投资策略周报 [Table_Summary] ·市场回顾： 本周 A 股、港股指数先扬后抑，周五中东地缘冲突使得资金流出风险资产，全球股指普遍回调，中国权益市场亦 跟随调整。A 股市场成交额放量，主要指数多数收跌，仅创业板指、微盘股指上涨；北证 50、科创 50 领跌。一级 行业方面，本周 A 股有色金属、石油石化、农林牧渔领涨；食饮、家电、建材领跌；热门概念来看，稀土永磁、 油气开采受外围扰动因素走强。大宗商品方面，避险情绪推升油价和黄金大涨，本周 WTI 原油、ICE 布油期货涨超 13%，COMEX 黄金涨 3.3%。外汇方面，美元指数跌破 98 关口，人民币汇率震荡。 ·市场展望：聚焦 6.18 陆家嘴论坛，A 股上攻行情仍在路上。近期中美伦敦谈判进展符合市场预期，但中东地缘 局势再次扰动全球风险偏好，A 股短期跟随震荡调整。我们认为地缘事件对国内而言更多是情绪上的短期冲击，影 响 A 股的核心因素还是自身 ...