记者丨李益文 编辑丨叶映橙 12月16日，国际原油期货价格突然直线跳水， 截至当日22:04， WTI原油期货日内跌幅达2.06%，现报55.65美元/桶。ICE布油跌近2%报59.62 美元/桶， 失守60美元关口，为5月以来首次。 这一判断也得到国际权威机构报告的充分印证。国际货币基金组织（IMF）2025年10月发布的《世界经济展望报告》预计，2025年全球经济增 速为3.2%，2026年为3.1%，虽较4月预测值有所上调，但仍低于2024年增速。 消息面上，据新华财经，12月16日晚9:30，美国公布最新非农数据，11月季调后非农就业人口录得6.4万人，高于市场普遍预期。美国11月失 业率录得4.6%，为2021年9月以来新高。美国劳工统计局下修8月和9月非农数据，两月合计新增就业比初值少3.3万人，8月由-0.4万修正为-2.6 万。 非农数据公布后，国际油价快速跳水，WTI原油、布油跌破60美元后加速下挫。现货黄金上扬逾20美元，最高至4330美元/盎司。 这一轮价格跳水是近期油价持续下行趋势的延续。截至12月15日，ICE布油年内跌幅达19.13%，WTI原油年内跌幅更是扩大至20.97%，两大 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Hold short positions in crude oil and pay attention to geopolitical disturbances [1] Core Viewpoints - On December 12, 2025, NYMEX WTI futures contract 01 fell $0.86, or 1.47%, to $57.60 per barrel; ICE Brent futures contract 02 fell $0.93, or 1.49%, to $61.28 per barrel; SC2601 crude oil futures closed down 6.40 yuan per barrel, or 1.45%, to 434.80 yuan per barrel [1] - The trend strength of crude oil is -1, indicating a bearish outlook [10] Summary by Directory 1. Mexican Gulf Crude Oil Arbitrage - The arbitrage windows for various crude oils such as Arab Extra Light, Arab Light, Nemba, etc., are closed, with negative arbitrage spaces ranging from -1.16 to -8.39 USD/barrel, showing weak competitiveness [2] 2. Atlantic Crude Oil Arbitrage - Forties has no cost - advantage against Bonny Light, with an arbitrage space of -0.3 USD/barrel; Arab Extra Light and Saharan Blend present arbitrage opportunities with spaces of 0.93 and 2.68 USD/barrel respectively; Urals has a huge arbitrage space of 23.2 USD/barrel due to sanctions [4] 3. Northwest Europe Crude Oil Arbitrage - WTI MEH, Eagle Ford, Saharan Blend, and Bonny Light show arbitrage opportunities against Forties, with arbitrage spaces ranging from 0.9 to 2.23 USD/barrel; Azeri Light has a weak arbitrage space [5] 4. Mediterranean Crude Oil Arbitrage - The arbitrage windows for Saharan Blend, Azeri Light, Bonny Light, Ekofisk, and Eagle Ford against Urals are closed, with large negative arbitrage spaces, indicating weak competitiveness [6][7] 5. Asian Crude Oil Arbitrage - Duri, Napo, and Mars against Dubai present arbitrage opportunities, with spaces of 1.2, 5.08, and 1.33 USD/barrel respectively; Basrah Heavy and Maya have closed arbitrage windows [8] 6. Key Market News - Trump promised to contribute to Ukraine's security efforts if Russia - Ukraine peace agreement is reached; Trump mentioned that actions in Venezuela will soon take place on land; the Central Economic Work Conference was held on December 10 - 11 [11]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint - Hold short positions in crude oil and monitor geopolitical disturbances [1] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 International Crude Oil - NYMEX WTI futures contract 01 rose by $0.21, or 0.36%, to $58.46 per barrel; ICE Brent futures contract 02 rose by $0.27, or 0.44%, to $62.21 per barrel; SC2601 crude oil futures closed down by 3.80 yuan per barrel, or 0.86%, to 440.50 yuan per barrel [1] 3.2 Mexican Gulf Crude Oil Arbitrage - The arbitrage windows of Saudi extra - light crude, Angolan crude, Nigerian crude, North Sea crude, and some Saudi heavy crude are closed; Vasconia crude shows a weak arbitrage opportunity; Ecuador's Napo crude has a significant arbitrage space; Maya crude is close to the break - even point [2][4] 3.3 Atlantic Crude Oil Arbitrage - Forties and Cabinda crudes have insufficient competitiveness; Arab Extra Light and Saharan Blend crudes show arbitrage opportunities, with Urals crude having a huge arbitrage space due to sanctions - related discounts [4] 3.4 Northwest Europe Crude Oil Arbitrage - WTI MEH, Eagle Ford, Saharan Blend, and Bonny Light crudes present arbitrage opportunities; Azeri Light crude has a weak arbitrage space [6] 3.5 Mediterranean Crude Oil Arbitrage - The arbitrage windows of Saharan Blend, Azeri Light, Bonny Light, Ekofisk, and Eagle Ford crudes against Urals are all closed [7][8] 3.6 Asian Crude Oil Arbitrage - Duri, Napo, and Mars crudes show arbitrage opportunities; Basrah Heavy and Maya crudes have their arbitrage windows closed [9] 3.7 Key Market News - Venezuelan opposition leader Machado fled the country; the Fed announced short - term bond purchases and a 25BP interest rate cut; the US seized a Venezuelan oil tanker; Venezuela's President Maduro made a tough statement; a Russian "shadow fleet" oil tanker was sunk in the Black Sea [12] 3.8 Trend Intensity - The crude oil trend intensity is - 1, indicating a bearish outlook [11]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report indicates that the short - term trend of crude oil is volatile, and it is recommended to continue holding short positions. The current trend strength of crude oil is - 1, suggesting a bearish outlook [1][10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 International Crude Oil Prices - NYMEX WTI 01 futures contract rose $0.31/barrel, a 0.53% increase, closing at $58.95/barrel. - ICE Brent 02 futures contract rose $0.22/barrel, a 0.35% increase, closing at $62.67/barrel. - SC2601 crude oil futures rose 1.60 yuan/barrel, a 0.36% increase, closing at 450.90 yuan/barrel [1]. 3.2 Mexican Gulf Crude Oil Arbitrage - The arbitrage windows of various crude oils such as Arab Extra Light, Arab Light, Nemba, etc., are mostly closed, with different negative arbitrage spaces. For example, Arab Extra Light has an arbitrage space of -$5.68/barrel [2]. 3.3 Atlantic Crude Oil Arbitrage - Forties crude oil shows a slight negative arbitrage, with a trade volume of 36 MB/D in October. - Arab Extra Light's arbitrage window is slightly open but has no actual trade volume. - Saharan Blend has a significant arbitrage space, with a trade volume of 9 MB/D in October [5]. 3.4 Northwest European Crude Oil Arbitrage - The arbitrage windows of WTI MEH, Eagle Ford, Azeri Light, etc., are open, with different positive arbitrage spaces. For example, Eagle Ford has an arbitrage space of $1.27/barrel [6]. 3.5 Mediterranean Crude Oil Arbitrage - The arbitrage windows of Saharan Blend, Azeri Light, Bonny Light, etc., are deeply closed. For example, Saharan Blend has an arbitrage space of -$16.12/barrel [7]. 3.6 Asian Crude Oil Arbitrage - Duri and Napo crude oils have open arbitrage windows but no recent trade volume. Basrah Heavy and Maya crude oils' arbitrage windows are closed [8]. 3.7 Key Market News - Venezuelan President Maduro said he had a phone call with US President Trump about 10 days ago. - Venezuela's oil exports in November rose slightly to about 921,000 barrels per day, the third - highest monthly average this year. - US EIA crude inventory and gasoline inventory data for the week ending November 28 deviated from expectations. - PBOC Governor Pan Gongsheng mentioned in an article about monetary policy adjustments [9][10][11].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Report's Core View - The short positions in crude oil should be held, and attention should be paid to geopolitical disturbances. The trend strength of crude oil is -1, indicating a bearish outlook [1][9]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs International Crude Oil - NYMEX WTI futures 01 contract rose by $0.77 per barrel, a month - on - month increase of 1.32%, to $59.32 per barrel. ICE Brent futures 02 contract rose by $0.79 per barrel, a month - on - month increase of 1.27%, to $63.17 per barrel. SC2601 crude oil futures closed up by 5 yuan per barrel, a gain of 1.11%, to 455.90 yuan per barrel [1]. Mexican Gulf Crude Oil Arbitrage - All light crude oil arbitrage windows flowing into USGC are deeply closed. US domestic crude oil has an overwhelming cost advantage over imported Middle - Eastern light crude oil, strongly suppressing the import demand for such crude oil. For coking refineries, there are selective opportunities. The arbitrage window for Colombian heavy crude Vasconia is slightly open (-$1.94), and the Mexican Maya crude oil arbitrage window is close to balance (-$1.16) [2]. Atlantic Crude Oil Arbitrage - Arbitrage opportunities in this region are differentiated. North Sea Forties, Algerian Saharan Blend, and Russian Urals have economic viability. Notably, the high arbitrage value of Urals crude oil (+$15.60) reflects the large price discount due to geopolitical factors, driving a large amount of Russian crude oil to flow into this region [4]. Northwest European Crude Oil Arbitrage - The trans - Atlantic light crude oil arbitrage window is slightly open. The arbitrage windows of WTI MEH (+$0.56), Eagle Ford (+$1.03), Azeri Light (+$0.04), Saharan Blend (+$1.37), and Bonny Light (+$0.15) are all open, but the economic viability is generally weak [5]. Mediterranean Crude Oil Arbitrage - All arbitrage windows flowing into the Mediterranean are deeply closed. Urals crude oil has an absolute cost advantage in the Mediterranean region, consolidating its position as the main supply source [6]. Asian Crude Oil Arbitrage - For cracking refineries, all alternative crude oil arbitrage windows for ESPO are closed, and the negative values are large, indicating that ESPO has a strong market share and cost advantage in the Northeast Asian market. For coking refineries, there are significant opportunities. The arbitrage window for South American heavy crude Napo is open (+$5.68), and the arbitrage of Indonesian Duri and US Mars crude oil is also open [7]. Key Market News - On December 1st, shipping company Besiktas Shipping confirmed that an oil tanker carrying diesel was attacked by four external explosions near Dakar, Senegal. It was the third Russian - related vessel attacked in the past few days [8].

Market Overview - Global commodity prices mostly increased, with international oil prices showing active performance; ICE Brent crude futures rose by 1.04%, and NYMEX WTI crude futures also increased by 1.04% [1] - Precious metal futures saw significant gains, with COMEX gold futures up by 0.45% and COMEX silver futures rising sharply by 4.13% [1] - London base metals collectively rose, with LME copper increasing by 1.25% and LME aluminum up by 2.27% [1] Policy and Regulatory Developments - Six departments jointly released an implementation plan to enhance the adaptability of supply and demand for consumer goods, aiming for a significant optimization of the supply structure by 2027, with the formation of three trillion-level consumption fields and ten hundred-billion-level consumption hotspots [2] - The Guangxi Futures Exchange announced that platinum futures will be listed on November 27, 2025, with a base price of 405 yuan per gram for various contracts, while palladium futures will also be listed on the same date with a base price of 365 yuan per gram [2] - Zhejiang Province issued a plan to build an integrated off-market trading hub for bulk commodities, aiming for steady growth in spot trading scale by the end of 2027 and an expanded influence of commodity price indices by the end of 2030 [2] Commodity Insights - Recent weak economic data from the U.S. has increased the probability of a Fed rate cut in December, with the dollar index falling to 99.59; this has led to fluctuations in precious metals, particularly a significant rise in COMEX silver [4] - Domestic electrolytic aluminum prices saw a slight decline, averaging 21,390 yuan per ton, down by 50 yuan per ton, influenced by weak external markets and geopolitical tensions in East Asia [4] - The aluminum market is expected to remain volatile, with a projected trading range of 21,000 to 21,600 yuan per ton, as supply disruptions and macroeconomic shifts are anticipated [5] Livestock Market - The short-term outlook for the pig market indicates a phase of strong supply and weak demand, with prices expected to remain low; attention is needed on the impact of short-term stockpiling on market sentiment [6] - The mid-term forecast suggests an increase in pig supply due to the number of new piglets, which may limit price increases; however, if disease impacts are excluded, supply is expected to continue until September next year [6] - Long-term, a significant decrease in the number of breeding sows may ease supply pressure after September next year, presenting potential low-buy opportunities if the trend continues [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoint of the Report Hold short positions in crude oil, or it may gradually test the low before April [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. International Crude Oil - NYMEX crude oil futures January contract was at $58.06, down $0.94 per barrel, a month - on - month decrease of - 1.59% [1]. - ICE Brent crude oil futures January contract was at $62.56, down $0.82 per barrel, a month - on - month decrease of - 1.29% [1]. - SC2601 crude oil futures closed down 6.60 yuan per barrel, a decline of 1.46% to 446.40 yuan per barrel [1]. 2. Mexican Gulf Crude Oil Arbitrage - All light crude oil arbitrage windows flowing into USGC are closed. The large negative values indicate that local shale oil supply is sufficient and cost - competitive, strongly suppressing the import demand for light crude oil [2]. - For coking refineries, there are selective opportunities. The arbitrage windows for some heavy crude oils from the Americas are open, indicating they are economically attractive to specific refineries in the region [5]. 3. Atlantic Crude Oil Arbitrage - There are obvious selective arbitrage opportunities in the region. Forties in the North Sea and Saharan Blend in Africa are economical. The high arbitrage value of Urals crude oil is driving a large amount of Russian crude oil to flow into the region [6]. 4. Northwest European Crude Oil Arbitrage - All arbitrage windows flowing into Northwest Europe are closed, indicating that the light crude oil market within the Atlantic Basin is relatively balanced or abundant, and it is more economical for European refineries to use local North Sea crude oil or discounted Urals crude oil [10]. 5. Mediterranean Crude Oil Arbitrage - All arbitrage windows flowing into the Mediterranean are deeply closed. Urals crude oil has an absolute cost advantage and consolidates its position as the main supply source in the Mediterranean region [12]. 6. Northeast Asian Crude Oil Arbitrage - For cracking refineries, ESPO crude oil is highly competitive and has a strong market share and cost advantage in the Northeast Asian market [14]. - For coking refineries, there are significant opportunities. The arbitrage window for South American crude oil Napo is open, which may drive imports from the Americas [14]. 7. Key Market News - US President Trump said that the Ukrainian "leadership" is ungrateful, and Europe continues to buy oil from Russia [15]. - US Treasury Secretary said the economy is not facing a recession risk, Trump is pressuring Russia to end the war, and the government shutdown caused a permanent $11 billion blow to US GDP [17]. - Ukrainian President Zelensky said that all parties have reached a consensus, and the US proposal may incorporate elements important to Ukraine's national interests [17]. - Trump said Iran wants to reach an agreement, and it is likely to be achieved [17]. - Trump said he will not lift sanctions on Russian oil [17].

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has lowered the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4%, marking the second rate cut of the year, totaling a 50 basis point reduction [1][3] - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will end the balance sheet reduction starting December 1 and will continue to monitor economic indicators for potential adjustments to monetary policy [2][3] - There is a notable division within the FOMC, with some members advocating for a larger rate cut of 50 basis points, indicating increasing internal disagreements [4][5] Group 2 - Major U.S. stock indices showed mixed performance after reaching new highs, reflecting cautious market sentiment regarding the Fed's future rate cuts [6][8] - Nvidia's market capitalization has surpassed $5 trillion, making it the first company to achieve this milestone, while other tech giants also saw gains [6][8] - The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index experienced fluctuations, with individual Chinese stocks showing varied performance [8] Group 3 - International gold prices have declined, while oil prices have seen a slight increase, indicating a divergence in commodity market trends [9][10] - Analysts suggest that gold prices may continue to experience high volatility due to a combination of reduced risk appetite and speculative sentiment [10] - Oil prices are expected to remain under pressure due to the nearing end of the Northern Hemisphere's consumption peak and OPEC+ production increases [11]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Geopolitical disturbances, expectations of peak demand season, and crude oil supply pressure are in a state of mutual restraint, causing international oil prices to fluctuate at high levels. If geopolitical risks ease later, the downward pressure on oil prices will increase. The maintenance of Tianjin Petrochemical's PX plant has led to a contraction in the weekly domestic supply, while the operating rate of downstream PTA has remained stable. Boosted by the overall strong atmosphere in the commodity market, the PX processing fee has recovered on a month - on - month basis. However, on Friday, the market sentiment significantly cooled down, and the PX price weakened sharply, but the supply - demand fundamentals still provide some support at the lower end [8]. - The strengthening of cost support is the main driver for the rise in PTA prices this week. From the perspective of supply - demand, there have been limited changes in the domestic supply side, but the downstream demand has remained weak. The supply - demand has maintained a weak pattern, and inventories have continued to accumulate. The short - term weak trend is expected to continue. Recently, the PTA spot processing fee has been compressed to a low level of around 200 yuan/ton. Many large - scale plants are planning maintenance in August, and it is expected that the supply will decline. There is an expectation of marginal improvement in the supply - demand side, and the downward support is expected to strengthen, but close attention still needs to be paid to the trends on the cost side [8]. - Driven by the cost side this week, ethylene glycol has shown a strong performance. The increase in the ethylene glycol price has led to a slight recovery in the oil - based production profit, but the significant increase in coal prices has resulted in little change in the coal - based production profit. Ethylene glycol currently maintains a tight balance. The port inventory has slightly decreased compared to last week but has rebounded compared to the beginning of the week, with a limited inventory accumulation amplitude. Two Saudi plants have recently restarted, and it is expected that the subsequent arrival volume will gradually increase. Currently, the fundamental contradictions of ethylene glycol itself are not prominent, and the driving force mainly comes from the cost side. On Friday night, as the market sentiment cooled down and the prices of crude oil and coal weakened sharply, ethylene glycol also followed the cost decline [8]. - Although the cost - side prices have continued to rise, the processing fees of polyester downstream products have weakened on a month - on - month basis, highlighting the insufficient demand - side carrying capacity and weak performance. Overall, the supply - demand contradictions of short - fiber itself are not prominent. The improvement in the commodity atmosphere has stimulated short - term replenishment by downstream customers, and the inventory has decreased. Its price mainly fluctuates following the raw materials. The price of bottle - grade polyester chips has been oscillating strongly supported by the cost. Its operating rate has slightly decreased, and the marginal changes in supply - demand are limited. The short - term trend also mainly follows the upstream costs [8]. - The weak situation of the polyester industry itself remains unchanged. The polyester operating rate has continuously declined, and the weaving operating rate and textile orders have only maintained a low - level operation. The fundamental support is weak, and the expectations are also weak. This week, driven by the overall commodity sentiment, the prices of polyester industry chain products have shown a strong performance. However, on Friday night, the market sentiment declined. In terms of operation, attention can be paid to the short - selling opportunities that may arise when the fundamental driving force and price trend return to synchronization [8]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Changes of Polyester Industry Chain Products - From July 18th to July 25th, NYMEX crude oil futures decreased from $66.03/barrel to $65.07/barrel, a decrease of $0.96/barrel or 1.5%; ICE Brent crude oil futures decreased from $69.23/barrel to $67.6/barrel, a decrease of $1.63/barrel or 2.4%; domestic crude oil futures decreased from 532 yuan/barrel to 512.9 yuan/barrel, a decrease of 19.1 yuan/barrel or 3.6%. The price of CFR naphtha in Japan decreased slightly from $576.38/ton to $576.13/ton, a decrease of $0.25/ton or 0.0%. The price of CFR PX in China increased from 838.33 yuan/ton to 855.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 17.34 yuan/ton or 2.1%. The spot price of PTA in East China increased from 4782 yuan/ton to 4900 yuan/ton, an increase of 118 yuan/ton or 2.5%. The spot price of ethylene glycol in East China increased from 4429 yuan/ton to 4579 yuan/ton, an increase of 150 yuan/ton or 3.4%. The spot price of polyester chips in East China increased from 5825 yuan/ton to 5925 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton or 1.7%. The spot price of polyester staple fiber in East China increased from 6570 yuan/ton to 6615 yuan/ton, an increase of 45 yuan/ton or 0.7%. The spot price of polyester bottle - grade chips in East China increased from 5950 yuan/ton to 6080 yuan/ton, an increase of 130 yuan/ton or 2.2%. The spot price of polyester filament POY in East China increased from 6550 yuan/ton to 6700 yuan/ton, an increase of 150 yuan/ton or 2.3%. The spot price of polyester filament FDY in East China increased from 7800 yuan/ton to 7925 yuan/ton, an increase of 125 yuan/ton or 1.6%. The spot price of polyester filament DTY in East China increased from 6800 yuan/ton to 7000 yuan/ton, an increase of 200 yuan/ton or 2.9%. The spot price of polyester industrial yarn in East China decreased from 9000 yuan/ton to 8700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 300 yuan/ton or 3.3%. The prices of 300T 50D*50D Ditaff and 210T 75D*75D Chunyafang remained unchanged [2]. PX Supply - Demand Balance - Supply changes: During the week, Tianjin Petrochemical carried out maintenance. The two 1.6 - million - ton units of Fuhai Chuang, one 1 - million - ton unit of Weilian Chemical, and one 700,000 - ton unit of Fujia Dahua continued maintenance. This week, the domestic PX output was 694,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.42%. The weekly average domestic PX capacity utilization rate was 82.81%, a month - on - month increase of 0.35% [3]. - Weekly balance: From May 9th, 2025, to August 1st, 2025 (forecast), the PX supply - demand difference has generally shown a negative value, and the inventory has been decreasing. For example, on July 25th, 2025, the PX supply - demand difference was - 99,200 tons, and the ending inventory was 3.7244 million tons [3]. PTA Supply - Demand Balance - Supply changes: There were no new changes in domestic plants during the week, and the domestic PTA supply remained stable. From July 18th to July 24th, 2025, the domestic PTA output was 1.445 million tons, the same as last week, and 39,400 tons higher than the same period last year. The weekly average domestic PTA capacity utilization rate was 80.76%, the same as last week and 0.97% higher than the same period last year [4]. - Weekly balance: From May 9th, 2025, to August 1st, 2025 (forecast), the PTA supply - demand difference has been positive in most periods, and the inventory has been gradually increasing. For example, on July 25th, 2025, the PTA supply - demand difference was 45,500 tons, and the ending inventory was 3.8038 million tons [4]. MEG Supply - Demand Balance - Supply changes: This week, the load of some units in the petroleum - integrated plants was slightly adjusted, with no maintenance or restart. In terms of coal - chemical industry, Yangmei Shouyang's plant restarted after maintenance, Inner Mongolia Jinyuan's plant restarted after a short - term shutdown, and the load of Xinjiang Zhongkun's plant increased, as did the load of Shanxi Meijin. This week, the total domestic ethylene glycol capacity utilization rate was 59.20%, a month - on - month increase of 0.71%. This week, the weekly output of Chinese ethylene glycol enterprises was 359,900 tons, an increase of 43,000 tons compared to last week, a month - on - month increase of 1.22% [5]. - Weekly balance: From May 9th, 2025, to August 1st, 2025 (forecast), the MEG supply - demand difference has generally been negative, and the inventory has been decreasing. For example, on July 25th, 2025, the MEG supply - demand difference was - 36,800 tons, and the ending inventory was 1.8424 million tons [6]. Polyester Products - Polyester staple fiber: Downstream replenishment has stimulated short - fiber inventory reduction, but the spot processing fee has continued to decline. The short - fiber operating rate has decreased, and the output has decreased by 3,100 tons month - on - month, a decrease of 1.90% [57][66]. - Polyester bottle - grade chips: The raw material prices have shown a strong performance, and the bottle - grade chips processing fee has been slightly compressed. The operating rate has slightly decreased, and the marginal changes in supply - demand are limited [71]. - Polyester, filament, weaving, and dyeing: The terminal demand remains weak, and the inventory has increased significantly. The filament operating rate has decreased, and the polyester operating rate has decreased by 0.29% month - on - month. The filament production and sales have increased significantly, and the inventory has decreased rapidly. The filament production profit has recovered. The textile enterprise operating rate has continuously decreased, and the downstream overall performance has been weak. The pure - polyester yarn operating rate has decreased, and the inventory has increased [81][82][85].

Group 1 - The recent volatility in the international crude oil futures market is driven by geopolitical factors in the Middle East, leading to a significant price increase followed by a sharp decline as tensions eased [1][2] - Following the U.S. airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, WTI and ICE Brent crude futures reached around $80, marking a new high since January, with concerns over potential blockage of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical oil transport route [2] - The likelihood of Iran completely blocking the Strait of Hormuz is considered low due to military, economic, and public pressure factors, despite the Strait handling approximately 20 million barrels of oil transport daily [2] Group 2 - The announcement of a ceasefire agreement between Iran and Israel, accepted by Iran, led to a dramatic reversal in oil prices, with ICE Brent crude dropping by 8% and WTI crude falling by 9%, erasing nearly all gains from the previous two weeks [3] - Following the ceasefire, oil prices continued to fluctuate at lower levels, with WTI and ICE Brent futures dropping over 2% to around $67 [3] - OPEC+ has announced production increases for three consecutive months, extending a voluntary production cut of 2.2 million barrels per day until March 2025, despite actual production increases in April and May exceeding planned levels [3]