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中金:维持泡泡玛特跑赢行业评级 上调目标价至370港元
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-08-21 02:13
Core Viewpoint - The report from CICC indicates an upward revision of the adjusted net profit forecast for Pop Mart (09992) for 2025 and 2026 by 13% and 15% to 11 billion and 14.1 billion yuan respectively, with a target price increase of 12% to 370 HKD, suggesting a 17% upside potential [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the adjusted net profit exceeded expectations, with revenue reaching 13.88 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 204%, and profit of 4.68 billion yuan, up 386%, surpassing previous forecasts [2] - The adjusted net profit for 1H25 was 4.71 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 363%, slightly exceeding CICC's expectations [2] Group 2: Regional Growth - Revenue by region showed significant growth: China 8.28 billion yuan (up 135%), Asia-Pacific 2.85 billion yuan (up 258%), Americas 2.26 billion yuan (up 1142%), and Europe & others 480 million yuan (up 729%) [3] - The number of stores increased across regions, with notable expansions in the Americas and Europe, and online channels also saw enhanced performance, with self-developed apps launched in 34 countries [3] Group 3: IP and Product Categories - The IP matrix showed strong performance, with five major IPs generating over 1 billion yuan each, and THE MONSTERS becoming a world-class IP with a revenue share of 34.7% [4] - Revenue from plush toys, figures, MEGA, and derivatives increased significantly, with plush toys alone generating 6.14 billion yuan, accounting for 44.2% of total revenue [4] Group 4: Profitability and Future Outlook - The company's gross margin reached 70.3%, a year-on-year increase of 6.3 percentage points, driven by improved overseas sales and supply chain negotiation capabilities [5] - The adjusted net profit margin was 33.9%, reflecting an increase of 11.6 percentage points year-on-year, indicating strong operational leverage and potential for further growth in the global market [5]