The world's largest exchange-traded fund, SPDR S&P 500 Trust (SPY), saw outflows of $10.3B for the week ending January 23, despite its price increasing 1.72%. The Gold SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) recorded inflows totaling $174.73M last week, and GLD prices ...

Core Insights - Silver prices have more than doubled since mid-2025, driven by safe-haven buying, geopolitical tensions, and surging industrial demand from sectors like AI, EV, and solar [3][15] - Historical patterns indicate that silver typically follows gold's breakout, but often experiences larger price movements [3][15] Demand Dynamics - Silver is currently experiencing a "perfect storm" of demand, characterized by euphoric spikes in price [4][15] - The industrial demand surge is attributed to advancements in technology and renewable energy sectors [3][15] Historical Context - Silver has a history of significant price spikes followed by sharp declines, similar to natural gas [6] - Notable historical examples include the Hunt brothers' market cornering in the late 1970s and the commodity bull market in the 2000s, both of which saw dramatic price fluctuations [7][8] Market Indicators - Recent trading activity shows signs of a potential blow-off top, with record trading volume in the SLV ETF reaching $14.3 billion [10][12] - Current silver prices are over 100% above the 200-day moving average, indicating a stretched market [12] - Retail limitations on silver sales, such as Costco's restriction to one bar per customer, suggest heightened demand and market frenzy [12] Conclusion - While silver prices have surged significantly, caution is warranted as indicators suggest the rally may be nearing its peak [15]

Core Insights - Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are highlighted as effective investment strategies for 2026, providing instant diversification at a low cost [1] - There are over 14,000 ETFs available, catering to various investment preferences, including index funds and thematic ETFs [2] Best-Performing ETFs - The top-performing ETFs over the past year include the SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD), the Physical Platinum ETF (PPLT), and the Vaneck Semiconductor ETF (SMH), each showing gains of over 50% [3] - The SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) has $148.2 billion in assets under management and an expense ratio of 0.4%, reflecting the performance of gold bullion [4] - The Abrdn Physical Platinum Shares ETF (PPLT) is similar to GLD and managed by Aberdeen, which reverted to its original name in March 2025 [7]

Group 1 - The US captured Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro, leading to potential long-term restructuring of oil markets and increased policy and economic uncertainty [2] - Chevron, the only major US oil company operating in Venezuela, experienced a stock price increase of nearly 3% year-to-date, while spot gold prices and the SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) rose close to 3% [3] - Teucrium Investment Advisors filed for a Venezuela Exposure ETF, indicating a proactive approach to capitalize on the changing market dynamics [4] Group 2 - Asset managers believe that the political shift in Venezuela is unlikely to cause immediate broader market repricing, but it has implications for energy supply, emerging market sovereign bonds, and geopolitical tensions [4] - Safe-haven flows have increased gold prices, but fundamental impacts on USD, equities, commodities, and rates remain contained without further escalation [4]

Core Insights - Gold prices have increased significantly, rising from approximately $1,800 per ounce five years ago to nearly $4,100 per ounce, resulting in a 128% return, outperforming the S&P 500's 80% return over the same period [1][7]. Investment Opportunities - The SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) is highlighted as an excellent option for both active and passive investors seeking exposure to gold prices, benefiting from increasing retail and institutional demand [4][6]. - GLD serves as a benchmark for precious metals traders and is considered a lower-risk investment vehicle for those looking for reliable exposure to precious metals over time [5]. - Agnico Eagle (AEM) is projected to achieve 20% annual EPS growth and trades at 24 times earnings, indicating strong performance potential [7]. - Franco-Nevada (FNV) operates with 87% gross margins and analysts forecast a 30% EPS growth, suggesting robust financial health and growth prospects [7].

Core Insights - The ETF industry has seen record inflows, with $1.1 trillion invested year-to-date, surpassing previous records and indicating strong investor interest [3][4][23] Industry Overview - The ETF market crossed the trillion-dollar mark at the end of the previous year, ending with $1.12 trillion, and is on track to set new records [4][5] - There has been a notable demand for fixed income ETFs and international equities, which were not anticipated a year ago [5][6] Popular Funds - The Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO) has crossed $100 billion in net inflows, making it the only ETF to achieve this milestone [7][8] - Other popular ETFs include State Street's low-cost S&P 500 ETF (SPYM) and iShares S&P 500 ETF (IVV) [8] - Actively managed ETFs have gained traction, accounting for nearly 40% of net flows this year, indicating a shift in investor preferences [9][10] New Fund Types - New fund types, including those utilizing options strategies and covered calls, are gaining traction, with J.P. Morgan's Nasdaq Equity Premium ETF (JEPQ) nearing $10 billion in assets [12][13] Market Dynamics - There is a shift of assets from traditional mutual funds to ETFs, with net outflows from equity mutual funds contributing to the inflows into ETFs [14][15] - The ETF market is expected to continue growing, with projections of breaking $1 trillion in net inflows again by 2026 [16][20]

Core Insights - The Muhlenkamp Fund, once a top performer in the 1990s, faced significant challenges during the tech boom and financial crisis, leading to a drastic decline in assets and performance [1][3] - Under the management of Jeffrey Muhlenkamp, the fund has recently outperformed the S&P 500, achieving an average annual return of 17.56% over the past five years [5] - The fund has shifted its investment strategy to include a significant allocation in gold stocks, reflecting concerns over inflation and geopolitical instability [7][8] Historical Performance - The Muhlenkamp Fund's assets grew from approximately $200 million in the late 1990s to over $3 billion before the financial crisis, but fell to $1 billion by the end of 2009 [2][3] - An investment in the fund yielded less than 9% annually over 15 years, compared to a 12% return from the S&P 500 [3] Management Transition - Jeffrey Muhlenkamp took over the fund in 2020 after a military career, aiming to revitalize the investment strategy while maintaining core principles established by his father [4] Investment Strategy - The fund currently allocates 19% of its $400 million in assets to gold stocks, which have seen significant price increases, with gold prices more than doubling in the last five years [7][8] - The investment philosophy emphasizes companies with high return on equity and a focus on inflation trends, adapting to current market conditions [9] Key Holdings - Major holdings include Microsoft, Berkshire Hathaway, and Apple, with a focus on companies that provide steady cash flow rather than just growth potential [10] - The fund's longest-held investment, Rush Enterprises, has yielded significant returns, highlighting a successful consolidation strategy in the truck dealership sector [10] Market Outlook - The fund is cautious about AI investments, drawing parallels to past market bubbles and emphasizing the potential for a downturn in capital spending [11] - The portfolio has shifted towards manufacturing and healthcare sectors, which are currently out of favor, indicating a contrarian investment approach [10]

Core Viewpoint - Small caps are experiencing a breakout due to lower interest rates on the horizon, contrasting with their previous underperformance compared to tech stocks [1] Group 1: Technical Analysis - The Russell 2000 Index ETF (IWM) is attempting to break out of a four-year base structure that began in October 2021, with historical breakouts resulting in gains of 30% or more over the next 1-2 years [1] - Technical targets suggest that IWM could reach approximately $300, which is 19% higher than current levels, based on Fibonacci extensions [6] - An alternative target calculation indicates a potential move to around $312 by adding the difference between the high and low of the base to the breakout [8] Group 2: Relative Strength - IWM is showing relative strength compared to the Nasdaq 100 Index ETF (QQQ), having retaken recent highs while QQQ remains below them, indicating a potential leadership role for IWM in the US equity market [9] Group 3: Performance of Components - Top holdings within IWM, such as IonQ (IONQ), Oklo (OKLO), and Credo Technology (CRDO), are performing strongly and may contribute to the breakout [11] Group 4: Market Conditions - After years of lagging behind large-cap peers, small caps are positioned for a significant upward movement, supported by a multi-year base, improving technical signals, relative strength, and favorable macro conditions [12]

Core Insights - Retail investors in the U.S. are buying stocks at an unprecedented scale, with their favorite stocks significantly outperforming the market, rising 30% since early September compared to the S&P 500's 4.3% increase [1] - Retail trading volume has surged to a historical high, with Citigroup reporting the highest level of retail trading activity since tracking began in 2018 [2] - The current buying frenzy is linked to renewed optimism in AI stocks, alongside expectations of corporate transactions, interest rate cuts, and earnings resilience [1][2] Retail Trading Activity - Citigroup's data shows that retail trading volume has broken seasonal trends, reaching the highest level since 2018 [2] - Retail investors accelerated their weekly stock purchases to $7 billion from October 2 to October 8, up from an average of $5.3 billion over the previous two months [2] - The market is driven by a combination of FOMO (fear of missing out) and MOMO (momentum investing), with every dip seen as a buying opportunity [2] AI Stocks as a Focus - AI-related stocks remain the center of retail enthusiasm, with Dell experiencing its largest capital inflow in nearly five months, and significant buying in major companies like Tesla, Nvidia, and Meta [2] Options Market Sentiment - The options market reflects a risk-seeking sentiment, with retail gamma supply reaching a historical high of $93 billion, primarily driven by growth stocks, especially in technology and communications [3] - Retail inflows into ETFs reached $5.8 billion, the highest in nearly five months, with increased positions in precious metals ETFs [3] Quantum Computing Stocks as a Risk Point - Analysis indicates that some stocks in the retail favorite basket have shown signs of overextended momentum, particularly in the technology sector, which contributed 77% of the returns since early September [4] - Three quantum computing stocks—Rigetti Computing Inc., D-Wave Quantum Inc., and IonQ Inc.—have significantly influenced the basket's performance, and any adjustments in these stocks could disproportionately affect broader indices [4]

Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - The Federal Reserve is under political pressure, with inflation figures and weaker job data increasing the likelihood of interest rate cuts [1][4] - The implied probability of a Fed cut in September has risen to approximately 94%, up from 57% a month ago, with October at just over 60% and December at about 49% [4] Investment Opportunities - Lower interest rates are expected to benefit stocks, precious metals, and higher-risk bonds, while the Treasury yield curve may steepen modestly [6] - Potential investment winners include the Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US ETF (VEU), SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD), and SPDR Bloomberg High Yield Bond ETF (JNK) [7] Home Improvement Sector - The stock market is at a critical decision point, with positive money flows observed in certain areas, particularly in the homebuilder sector [7] - Home Depot Inc. (HD) is highlighted as a bellwether for the home improvement sector, reflecting consumer sentiment and the existing home market [9][11] - Recent store traffic at Home Depot has been robust, indicating potential positive earnings results [11] Homebuilder Sector Performance - The homebuilder sector is experiencing a rebound, with smart money building long-term positions despite no rate cuts from the Federal Reserve [12] - The performance of homebuilding stocks is occurring unnoticed, suggesting a potential undervaluation in the market [12] Gold Market Trends - Gold is trending higher, indicating a shift in investment themes amid a tech boom [13] - Countries are reevaluating their trading relationships and increasing gold holdings, which may lead to a medium-term bearish outlook for the US dollar [14][16] Central Bank Influence - Central banks cutting rates and easing credit conditions are seen as supportive of bull markets, particularly in tech, financials, and gold [17]