Core Insights - The Muhlenkamp Fund, once a top performer in the 1990s, faced significant challenges during the tech boom and financial crisis, leading to a drastic decline in assets and performance [1][3] - Under the management of Jeffrey Muhlenkamp, the fund has recently outperformed the S&P 500, achieving an average annual return of 17.56% over the past five years [5] - The fund has shifted its investment strategy to include a significant allocation in gold stocks, reflecting concerns over inflation and geopolitical instability [7][8] Historical Performance - The Muhlenkamp Fund's assets grew from approximately $200 million in the late 1990s to over $3 billion before the financial crisis, but fell to $1 billion by the end of 2009 [2][3] - An investment in the fund yielded less than 9% annually over 15 years, compared to a 12% return from the S&P 500 [3] Management Transition - Jeffrey Muhlenkamp took over the fund in 2020 after a military career, aiming to revitalize the investment strategy while maintaining core principles established by his father [4] Investment Strategy - The fund currently allocates 19% of its $400 million in assets to gold stocks, which have seen significant price increases, with gold prices more than doubling in the last five years [7][8] - The investment philosophy emphasizes companies with high return on equity and a focus on inflation trends, adapting to current market conditions [9] Key Holdings - Major holdings include Microsoft, Berkshire Hathaway, and Apple, with a focus on companies that provide steady cash flow rather than just growth potential [10] - The fund's longest-held investment, Rush Enterprises, has yielded significant returns, highlighting a successful consolidation strategy in the truck dealership sector [10] Market Outlook - The fund is cautious about AI investments, drawing parallels to past market bubbles and emphasizing the potential for a downturn in capital spending [11] - The portfolio has shifted towards manufacturing and healthcare sectors, which are currently out of favor, indicating a contrarian investment approach [10]

Core Viewpoint - Small caps are experiencing a breakout due to lower interest rates on the horizon, contrasting with their previous underperformance compared to tech stocks [1] Group 1: Technical Analysis - The Russell 2000 Index ETF (IWM) is attempting to break out of a four-year base structure that began in October 2021, with historical breakouts resulting in gains of 30% or more over the next 1-2 years [1] - Technical targets suggest that IWM could reach approximately $300, which is 19% higher than current levels, based on Fibonacci extensions [6] - An alternative target calculation indicates a potential move to around $312 by adding the difference between the high and low of the base to the breakout [8] Group 2: Relative Strength - IWM is showing relative strength compared to the Nasdaq 100 Index ETF (QQQ), having retaken recent highs while QQQ remains below them, indicating a potential leadership role for IWM in the US equity market [9] Group 3: Performance of Components - Top holdings within IWM, such as IonQ (IONQ), Oklo (OKLO), and Credo Technology (CRDO), are performing strongly and may contribute to the breakout [11] Group 4: Market Conditions - After years of lagging behind large-cap peers, small caps are positioned for a significant upward movement, supported by a multi-year base, improving technical signals, relative strength, and favorable macro conditions [12]

Core Insights - Retail investors in the U.S. are buying stocks at an unprecedented scale, with their favorite stocks significantly outperforming the market, rising 30% since early September compared to the S&P 500's 4.3% increase [1] - Retail trading volume has surged to a historical high, with Citigroup reporting the highest level of retail trading activity since tracking began in 2018 [2] - The current buying frenzy is linked to renewed optimism in AI stocks, alongside expectations of corporate transactions, interest rate cuts, and earnings resilience [1][2] Retail Trading Activity - Citigroup's data shows that retail trading volume has broken seasonal trends, reaching the highest level since 2018 [2] - Retail investors accelerated their weekly stock purchases to $7 billion from October 2 to October 8, up from an average of $5.3 billion over the previous two months [2] - The market is driven by a combination of FOMO (fear of missing out) and MOMO (momentum investing), with every dip seen as a buying opportunity [2] AI Stocks as a Focus - AI-related stocks remain the center of retail enthusiasm, with Dell experiencing its largest capital inflow in nearly five months, and significant buying in major companies like Tesla, Nvidia, and Meta [2] Options Market Sentiment - The options market reflects a risk-seeking sentiment, with retail gamma supply reaching a historical high of $93 billion, primarily driven by growth stocks, especially in technology and communications [3] - Retail inflows into ETFs reached $5.8 billion, the highest in nearly five months, with increased positions in precious metals ETFs [3] Quantum Computing Stocks as a Risk Point - Analysis indicates that some stocks in the retail favorite basket have shown signs of overextended momentum, particularly in the technology sector, which contributed 77% of the returns since early September [4] - Three quantum computing stocks—Rigetti Computing Inc., D-Wave Quantum Inc., and IonQ Inc.—have significantly influenced the basket's performance, and any adjustments in these stocks could disproportionately affect broader indices [4]

Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - The Federal Reserve is under political pressure, with inflation figures and weaker job data increasing the likelihood of interest rate cuts [1][4] - The implied probability of a Fed cut in September has risen to approximately 94%, up from 57% a month ago, with October at just over 60% and December at about 49% [4] Investment Opportunities - Lower interest rates are expected to benefit stocks, precious metals, and higher-risk bonds, while the Treasury yield curve may steepen modestly [6] - Potential investment winners include the Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US ETF (VEU), SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD), and SPDR Bloomberg High Yield Bond ETF (JNK) [7] Home Improvement Sector - The stock market is at a critical decision point, with positive money flows observed in certain areas, particularly in the homebuilder sector [7] - Home Depot Inc. (HD) is highlighted as a bellwether for the home improvement sector, reflecting consumer sentiment and the existing home market [9][11] - Recent store traffic at Home Depot has been robust, indicating potential positive earnings results [11] Homebuilder Sector Performance - The homebuilder sector is experiencing a rebound, with smart money building long-term positions despite no rate cuts from the Federal Reserve [12] - The performance of homebuilding stocks is occurring unnoticed, suggesting a potential undervaluation in the market [12] Gold Market Trends - Gold is trending higher, indicating a shift in investment themes amid a tech boom [13] - Countries are reevaluating their trading relationships and increasing gold holdings, which may lead to a medium-term bearish outlook for the US dollar [14][16] Central Bank Influence - Central banks cutting rates and easing credit conditions are seen as supportive of bull markets, particularly in tech, financials, and gold [17]

Core Insights - Bitcoin and gold have both experienced a year-to-date return of 28% as of July 16, 2025, indicating a trend towards diversification in investment portfolios [1][8] - The rise in international stocks, a positive return in the bond market, and gains in alternative assets have contributed to this diversification trend [1] Investment Themes - Investors are increasingly turning to ETFs to gain exposure to alternative assets like gold and bitcoin, as well as niche altcoins and precious metals [2] - Total assets under management (AUM) in gold ETFs surpassed $170 billion in April 2025, while cryptocurrency ETFs reached $123.9 billion by April 30 [3] Market Comparisons - Gold's market cap stands at approximately $22.6 trillion, significantly larger than Bitcoin's market cap of around $2.4 trillion [4] - The SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) is the leading gold ETF with $102 billion in AUM, while the iShares Gold Trust (IAU) has $48 billion [5] ETF Performance - The iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) is projected to exceed $100 billion in AUM soon, having reached $86 billion by mid-July [7] - IBIT has grown at a remarkable pace, hitting $80 billion in just 374 days, significantly faster than previous records [7] Other Asset Performance - Other metals like platinum and palladium have seen substantial gains, with platinum up over 50% and palladium up 40% in 2025 [9] - Ether has also rebounded, moving back into positive territory after a significant decline earlier in the year [10] Emerging Trends - The crypto market is witnessing innovations and new products, with a focus on Solana and leveraged products for cryptocurrencies like XRP [11] - Active ETF AUM is on the rise, complementing the growth of low-cost index funds, indicating a shift in investment strategies [13] Conclusion - The year 2025 has been characterized by volatility, driving strong performances in gold and bitcoin, with central banks actively purchasing gold and a "buy the dip" mentality in the crypto market [14]

Group 1: Gold Market Overview - Gold has outperformed the S&P 500 over the past 1-year, 3-year, and year-to-date periods, driven by geopolitical shifts and concerns over fiat currency stability [1] - Central bank demand, particularly from BRICS nations, is contributing to record levels of gold accumulation as these countries diversify away from US dollar-denominated assets [6] - Geopolitical tensions, including the Russia–Ukraine war and US-China relations, are increasing macro uncertainty, further supporting gold as a hedge against systemic risk [7][8] Group 2: Technical Analysis of Gold - Gold is forming a tightening bull flag pattern, with a potential breakout above $317.50 on GLD (or $3,475 in gold futures) signaling a major upward move [10] - The current price action indicates strong buying interest, suggesting that gold is on the verge of a significant breakout [2][10] Group 3: Top Gold Mining Stocks - Aris Mining Corporation is highlighted as a compelling opportunity, trading at 5.8x forward earnings with projected sales growth of 56% this year and earnings growth of 265% [12][13][14] - Agnico Eagle Mines, with a Zacks Rank 1, is noted for its operational consistency and projected annual EPS growth of 20.8% over the next three to five years, currently testing a breakout level [15][16][17] - Kinross Gold, also holding a Zacks Rank 1, is trading at 12.7x forward earnings with expected EPS growth of 21.2% over the next three to five years, presenting a GARP opportunity [18][22] - AngloGold Ashanti PLC has surged over 120% year-to-date, reflecting strong investor confidence and operational performance, also holding a Zacks Rank 1 [24][25][26] Group 4: Investment Outlook - The outlook for gold remains constructive, with prices nearing a technical breakout and strong global demand driven by macro trends [27][29] - Gold stocks are positioned as an attractive entry point for investors seeking diversification and exposure to rising commodity trends [29]