Goldman Sachs expects a significant wave of central-bank gold purchases for November. The bank’s outlook anticipates a continued shift in reserve management as policymakers hedge against geopolitical and financial risks.According to Reuters, Goldman’s latest estimates indicate 64 tons in September, a significant increase from the 21 tons projected for August. The estimate supports strong buying through year-end, as emerging-market central banks continue to purchase.Yet, a large portion of these purchases is ...

Goldman Sachs expects a significant wave of central-bank gold purchases for November. The bank’s outlook anticipates a continued shift in reserve management as policymakers hedge against geopolitical and financial risks.According to Reuters, Goldman’s latest estimates indicate 64 tons in September, a significant increase from the 21 tons projected for August. The estimate supports strong buying through year-end, as emerging-market central banks continue to purchase.Yet, a large portion of these purchases is ...

Core Insights - A record $1 trillion has been invested in US ETFs in 2025, indicating a significant shift from traditional mutual funds to ETFs [2][3] - The ETF industry is projected to reach $1.4 trillion by year-end, surpassing last year's record and solidifying ETFs as a dominant investment vehicle in the US [3] - Total US ETF assets reached $12.7 trillion by the end of September, with a 23% year-to-date growth rate and 41 consecutive months of net inflows [3] ETF Performance - Bond and gold ETFs have shown exceptional performance, with $39 billion in inflows for fixed-income ETFs last month and SPDR Gold Trust ETF attracting $15.97 billion as gold prices exceeded $4,100 per ounce [4] - The current market environment is characterized by a risk-on sentiment and persistent inflation, which are driving these inflows [4] Investor Behavior - BlackRock's iShares and Tidal Financial Group anticipate continued inflows into ETFs, as mutual fund outflows have reached $481 billion this year [5] - Investors are increasingly favoring ETFs for their cost efficiency, transparency, liquidity, and diversification, which are reshaping global investment behavior [5] Growth in Crypto ETFs - A parallel boom in crypto-linked funds and Asian ETF markets is expected, with significant growth anticipated in crypto ETFs over the next five years, potentially capturing 10-20% of all assets [7][8] - The cost-effectiveness of ETFs compared to traditional crypto services is highlighted, with exposure available for as low as 25 basis points [8]

Industry Overview - The exchange-traded fund (ETF) industry has reached an annual asset milestone of $1 trillion, marking the fastest growth in history [1] - Full-year ETF inflows are projected to reach $1.35 trillion, driven by strong performance across various asset classes, particularly bonds [5] Asset Performance - Across different asset classes, including stocks, bonds, and commodities, there has been a positive return environment, with assets outperforming cash [2] - Fixed income ETFs are gaining popularity, with record inflows of $39 billion in the last month alone, reflecting a shift towards more active strategies [6] Gold and Silver ETFs - Gold ETFs are experiencing significant inflows, with the SPDR Gold Trust ETF seeing record inflows of $15.97 billion this year, while the SPDR Gold MiniShares Trust ETF has attracted $6.8 billion [7] - Gold prices have surged over 56% this year, and silver has increased by over 73%, reaching its highest level since January 1980 [14] Market Drivers - Key factors driving the bullish sentiment for gold include persistent inflation, global instability, falling interest rates, and increasing U.S. debt [9] - The tonnage of gold held is currently below its historical high, suggesting potential for further price increases [13]

Group 1: Silver Market Dynamics - Silver prices surpassed $50 an ounce for the first time, reaching above $51 during trading before dipping below $49 [1] - The last time silver traded around these levels was January 1980, indicating significant historical price movement [1] - A supply shortage in the spot silver market has contributed to a 69% rise in silver prices this year [10] Group 2: Gold Market Trends - Spot gold prices fell 2% after crossing $4,000 for the first time, as investors booked profits following a ceasefire in the Israel-Hamas war [2][5] - The SPDR Gold ETF Trust has advanced nearly 50% this year, while smaller mining ETFs have seen gains over 740% [9] - Gold's rally has been driven by geopolitical tensions, central bank demand, rising ETF inflows, and economic uncertainty [8] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Speculators are taking profits in gold and silver as geopolitical tensions ease, but the primary drivers for the rally, such as reserve diversification and growing global sovereign debt, remain valid [5] - Anticipation of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve is influencing market dynamics, despite rising inflation concerns [15][16]

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices are on an upward trajectory, with expectations of breaching $4,000 per ounce by early 2026, driven by factors such as government uncertainty, a weaker U.S. dollar, and anticipated interest rate cuts [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - Gold has achieved its seventh consecutive week of gains, reaching an all-time high of $3,880.8 per ounce, marking a yearly increase of over 47% [2]. - Inflows into gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs) this year are the highest since 2020, indicating strong investor interest [7]. Group 2: Economic Influences - The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates in October and December, which could support gold prices by reducing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets [4]. - The U.S. dollar is experiencing a significant decline, projected to have its worst annual drop since the 1970s, further supporting gold's appeal [4]. Group 3: Investment Trends - The SPDR Gold Trust ETF, the largest ETF backed by physical gold, has seen consistent weekly inflows, reflecting strong demand [8]. - Notable performers in the gold investment space include ProShares Ultra Gold and DB Gold Double Long ETNs, both of which have increased by over 90% this year [9].

Economic Overview - The economy added only 73,000 jobs in July, significantly below the expected 104,000, with prior months' job gains revised down by a total of 258,000, leading to an increase in the unemployment rate to 4.2% [2] - Manufacturing activity has contracted, with factory hiring at its lowest since 2020, and consumer confidence has weakened, raising concerns about a potential economic slowdown or recession [2] - Analysts have increased the odds of interest rate cuts in September due to the combination of weak economic data [2] Federal Reserve and Interest Rate Expectations - The CME's FedWatch tool indicates an 87.4% probability of a 25-basis point rate cut in September, driven by weak data and declining consumer activity [1] - President Trump's nomination of Stephen Miran to the Federal Reserve Board is expected to reinforce dovish market expectations, potentially leading to earlier rate cuts [3] - JPMorgan has adjusted its forecast to expect the first rate cut in September, projecting a total of four cuts through early 2026 [3] Impact of Lower Interest Rates - Lower interest rates are anticipated to reduce borrowing costs, aiding business expansion and increasing profitability, which in turn stimulates economic growth and supports the stock market [4] - High dividend-yield sectors, particularly utilities and real estate, are expected to benefit significantly from rate cuts due to their sensitivity to interest rates [5] - Lower rates are likely to enhance consumer discretionary spending and encourage lending in the financial services sector, despite potential compression of net interest margins for banks [6] Sector-Specific Opportunities - Small-cap companies are expected to outperform in a lower-rate environment due to higher levels of debt, and rate cuts may boost foreign capital inflows into emerging markets like India [7] - Gold is projected to gain attractiveness as lower interest rates increase its appeal [7] Highlighted ETFs - **Vanguard Real Estate ETF (VNQ)**: Targets the real estate segment with an AUM of $33.5 billion, holding 155 stocks, and charges 13 bps in fees [9] - **Utilities Select Sector SPDR (XLU)**: AUM of $21.2 billion, focusing on utility companies, with 31 stocks and 8 bps in annual fees [10][11] - **Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLY)**: AUM of $22.3 billion, covering the consumer discretionary space with 51 securities and 8 bps in fees [12] - **iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM)**: Largest small-cap ETF with an AUM of $60.4 billion, holding 1,979 stocks and charging 19 bps in fees [13] - **SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD)**: Tracks gold prices with an AUM of $104 billion and charges 40 bps in fees [14]

Core Viewpoint - Gold is experiencing a resurgence in momentum due to fears of a U.S. economic slowdown, weak labor data, and expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, leading to a rise of over 3% in gold prices over four days [1][5]. Economic Data - The U.S. economy added only 73,000 jobs in July, significantly below the expected 104,000, with prior months' job gains revised down by 258,000, raising recession fears [3]. - The services sector index fell to 50.1 in July from 50.8 in June, indicating a near standstill in business activity due to weak demand and rising costs [4]. Federal Reserve Rate Cuts - The weak economic data has increased the likelihood of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates in September, with a 92% probability indicated by market tools [5]. - Lower interest rates enhance the attractiveness of gold as a non-yielding asset compared to fixed-income investments [5]. Tariffs and Safe-Haven Buying - The Trump administration's recent tariff hikes, ranging from 15% to 40% on various countries, have spurred safe-haven buying of gold [6]. - The inflationary pressures from these tariffs are expected to bolster gold's status as a hedge against rising prices [7]. Currency and Central Bank Activity - A weaker U.S. dollar and increased central bank purchases are contributing to the rise in gold prices, with 95% of central banks expecting to increase their gold reserves in the next year [8]. Gold Price Forecasts - Citigroup has raised its 3-month gold price forecast to $3,500 per ounce from $3,300, citing economic deterioration, rising inflation, and changing tariffs [9]. ETFs Performance - Gold ETFs such as SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD), iShares Gold Trust (IAU), and others are expected to perform well due to rising gold prices [2][10]. - SPDR Gold Trust ETF has an AUM of $103 billion and trades about 9 million shares daily, while iShares Gold Trust has an AUM of $33 billion with 6 million shares traded daily [11][12]. - Other notable ETFs include SPDR Gold MiniShares Trust (AUM: $16.2 billion), abrdn Physical Gold Shares ETF (AUM: $5 billion), and iShares Gold Trust Micro (AUM: $3.3 billion) [13][14][15]. Conclusion - Given the prevailing economic uncertainty and potential Fed rate cuts, interest in gold ETFs is likely to remain strong in the upcoming months [16].