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隆鑫通用(603766):深度报告:无极机车乘势而上,突围高端扬帆全球
Minsheng Securities· 2025-08-07 03:31
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [6][8]. Core Viewpoints - Longxin General (隆鑫通用) is a leading player in the domestic motorcycle industry, with motorcycle export sales expected to exceed 1.5 million units in 2024, ranking first in the industry. The motorcycle business revenue is projected to reach 12.69 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 34.0%, marking a historical high [3][4]. - The domestic motorcycle market is experiencing a clear structural evolution, with the penetration of mid-to-large displacement motorcycles accelerating. The penetration rate of mid-to-large displacement motorcycles in domestic sales has increased from 2.5% in 2020 to 11.4% in the first half of 2025, with expectations to reach 12% and 20% by 2025 and 2030, respectively [3][48]. - The global motorcycle market has a capacity of approximately 50 million units, with the overseas market for motorcycles above 250cc expected to have a market space of 5.5 million units in 2024, which is over nine times the domestic sales volume [4][12]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Longxin General is a diversified enterprise focused on the research, production, and sales of motorcycles, engines, general machinery, and other products. The company has undergone several strategic phases since its establishment, including partnerships with BMW and the launch of its high-end brand, Wujie [14][38]. - The company's revenue has shown steady growth, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9.6% from 2019 to 2024. The motorcycle and engine business contributed over 75% of the total revenue in 2024 [18][39]. Motorcycle Industry - The domestic motorcycle market is witnessing a shift towards mid-to-large displacement motorcycles, driven by increasing consumer demand for leisure and recreational use. The market potential remains significant, with a projected increase in sales and penetration rates [40][48]. - The report highlights the competitive landscape of the motorcycle export market, emphasizing the advantages of domestic brands in terms of product quality and cost-effectiveness, which positions them favorably against international competitors [4][12]. Financial Forecast and Investment Suggestions - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 20.16 billion yuan in 2025, with net profit attributable to shareholders projected at 1.88 billion yuan. The earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 0.91 yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 14, 12, and 10 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [6][7]. - The investment suggestion is based on the dual expansion of the Wujie brand in both product and channel aspects, which is anticipated to accelerate growth through volume and profit resonance [6][39].
隆鑫通用分析师会议-20250520
Dong Jian Yan Bao· 2025-05-20 13:19
1. Reported Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The motorcycle industry in China shows steady growth, with intensified domestic competition and continuous growth in foreign exports. The trend of Chinese motorcycles going global is positive, and domestic motorcycle brands have greater structural opportunities in overseas markets than in total volume [24]. - The company aims to achieve revenue of over 19 billion yuan in 2025, and plans to conduct mid - term dividends in 2025 under eligible conditions [27]. - The company will work with its controlling shareholder to optimize supply chain management and enhance supply chain synergy to strengthen market competitiveness [28]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Research Basic Situation - The research object is Loncin General, belonging to the transportation equipment industry. The reception time was May 20, 2025. The listed company's reception staff included the chairman, general manager, independent directors, board secretary, and financial controller [17]. 3.2. Detailed Research Institutions - The reception objects include investors and others [20]. 3.3. Research Institution Proportion - No information provided 3.4. Main Content Data - **Motorcycle Industry Development**: In 2024, China's fuel motorcycle sales reached 16.4562 million units, a year - on - year increase of 12.99%. Domestic sales were 8.9065 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 16.56%, and export sales were 11.0163 million units, a year - on - year increase of 26.72% [24]. - **Popular Products of Wujie**: SR250GT redefined the leisure sports scooter market; CU525 became the king of the same - level cruising motorcycles; DS900X had annual sales of over 10,000 units, accounting for over 95% of the total export volume of motorcycles above 800cc in China. New products such as CU250 and RR660S were also launched [24][25]. - **Reasons for Low Domestic Sales of Wujie 900DS**: The most popular product categories in the domestic market are cruising, sports, and scooter models. The domestic leisure and entertainment motorcycle market is still in the development stage, and the sales volume of large - displacement motorcycles is mainly concentrated in the 400 - 600cc range [26]. - **Business in the US and Risk Resistance**: The company's motorcycle exports are mainly to Europe, South America, and Africa. Exports to the US are mainly general machinery products, accounting for less than 7% of total revenue. The company will expand market share in multiple regions and take measures such as "going global in groups" with the supply chain and optimizing overseas manufacturing plant layouts [26]. - **Future Profit Growth Drivers**: The company will follow the strategic path of "product going global → brand going global → production capacity going global", increase the proportion of self - owned brand revenue, optimize the product sales structure, improve operational efficiency, and strengthen risk management [26]. - **2025 Business Plan**: The company will adhere to the business philosophy of "optimizing the existing and breaking through in the new", with a guiding ideology to promote high - quality and sustainable development, and strive to achieve revenue of over 19 billion yuan [26][27]. - **2025 Mid - term Dividend Consideration**: The company has proposed to the general meeting of shareholders to authorize the board of directors to formulate a mid - term dividend plan for 2025 and plans to conduct mid - term dividends under eligible conditions [27]. - **Competition and Supply Chain Integration**: The new controlling shareholder and actual controller of the company have promised to resolve the issue of competing businesses. The company will optimize supply chain management with the controlling shareholder to enhance supply chain synergy [28].