Core Insights - The Hershey Company reported stronger-than-expected quarterly results with net sales growth despite volume pressure due to consumer price sensitivity [1] - The company faced ongoing margin headwinds from elevated commodity and tariff costs, as well as higher operating expenses, even as shares rose in premarket trading [1] Financial Performance - Quarterly sales reached $3.09 billion, representing a 7% year-over-year increase, surpassing the analyst expectation of $2.98 billion [2] - Organic, constant-currency net sales increased by 5.7%, with acquisitions contributing 1.2 points and currency providing a 0.1-point benefit to sales [2] Segment Analysis - The North America Confectionery segment net sales were $2,478.5 million, up 5.3% year-over-year, while the North America Salty Snacks segment saw net sales of $357.0 million, a significant increase of 28.0% [3] - The International segment reported a slight increase of 0.4% year-over-year, totaling $255.6 million [4] Margin Analysis - Adjusted gross margin decreased by 650 basis points to 38.3%, impacted by higher commodity costs, tariff expenses, and lower volume [5] - Adjusted operating profit was $529.3 million, reflecting a 24.0% year-over-year decline, with an adjusted operating profit margin of 17.1%, down 700 basis points [6] Dividend Announcement - The company raised its quarterly dividend by 6% to $1.452 per share from $1.37, payable on March 16, 2026, to stockholders of record as of February 17, 2026 [7]

Core Insights - The Hershey Company reported fourth-quarter 2025 results with both revenue and earnings exceeding Zacks Consensus Estimates, although adjusted earnings per share fell 36.4% year over year [1][10] - The company provided an initial outlook for 2026, expecting sales growth of 4-5% and earnings growth of 30-35% [13][14] Financial Performance - Consolidated net sales reached $3,091 million, a 7% increase from the previous year, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3,002 million [2] - Adjusted earnings were $1.71 per share, exceeding the consensus estimate of $1.40 [1] - Adjusted operating income declined 24% to $529.3 million, with an adjusted operating margin of 17.1%, down 700 basis points year over year [6] Sales Breakdown - North America Confectionery segment net sales were $2.48 billion, up 5.3% year over year, driven by pricing actions despite a decline in volume [7] - The North America Salty Snacks segment saw net sales of $357 million, representing a 28% year-over-year growth, aided by the LesserEvil acquisition [9] - International segment net sales were $255.6 million, a slight increase of 0.4% year over year, but reported a loss of $31.6 million compared to a profit in the prior year [11] Margin and Cost Analysis - Adjusted gross margin was 38.3%, down 650 basis points year over year due to increased cocoa and input costs, tariff expenses of approximately $30 million, and lower volumes [4] - Selling, marketing, and administrative expenses rose 12.1% year over year, driven by higher compensation and brand investment [5] Future Outlook - For 2026, Hershey anticipates net sales growth of 4-5%, with contributions from pricing actions and innovation [13] - Expected adjusted diluted earnings per share for 2026 are projected to be between $8.20 and $8.52, indicating significant growth [14] - Capital expenditures for 2026 are estimated to be between $425 million and $475 million [14]

Core Insights - Hershey forecasts annual sales and profit above Wall Street estimates, driven by strong demand for confectionery and salty snacks, along with benefits from previous price increases [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company anticipates higher annual sales and profit figures compared to Wall Street expectations [1] - Resilient demand for its products is a key factor in this positive outlook [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - Continued benefits from earlier price hikes are contributing to the company's financial performance [1] - The strong performance in both confectionery and salty snacks indicates a robust market position [1]

Core Insights - The Hershey Company (HSY) is expected to report a revenue of $2.99 billion for Q4 2025, reflecting a 3.6% increase from the previous year [1] - Earnings per share (EPS) consensus remains at $1.40, indicating a nearly 48% decline year-over-year [2] Revenue Growth Factors - Hershey's revenue growth is anticipated to be driven by strong demand in its core confectionery portfolio, brand momentum, innovation, and disciplined revenue management [3] - Management noted improving consumption trends, strong performance in flagship brands, and sustained consumer interest in both core and new products during the Q3 earnings call [4] - Seasonal demand for holiday products, effective in-store execution, and marketing support are expected to further enhance revenue growth [4] Pricing and Market Dynamics - Strategic price increases in collaboration with retailers are a significant factor supporting revenue growth [5] - The salty snacks portfolio is performing well, benefiting from consumer trends favoring healthier snacking options [5] - International markets are contributing to growth through brand expansion and distribution, although some regions face macroeconomic and regulatory challenges [5] Profitability Challenges - Despite revenue strength, profitability is likely under pressure due to higher commodity costs and inflation not fully offset by pricing actions [6] - Increased spending on marketing, innovation, and capabilities to support long-term growth is expected to negatively impact near-term earnings [6] - An unfavorable product mix and elevated supply chain costs may further limit earnings improvement [6] Earnings Prediction - The model predicts an earnings beat for Hershey, supported by a positive Earnings ESP of +1.66% and a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy) [7]

Core Insights - The company reported an adjusted EBITDA of $62 million for Q4 2025, indicating stable financial performance despite challenges in net sales [1] - Retail sales grew approximately 3.5% in Q4, with the Salty Snack category returning to growth at 1.1%, reflecting positive consumer demand [1] - Net sales were impacted by channel partners reducing inventories due to factors such as SNAP payment delays and a government shutdown, although shipment trends normalized towards the end of the year [1] - The company is focused on productivity and operational efficiency programs and is on track with growth initiatives, including an expansion in California planned for early 2026 [1]

Market Overview - The S&P 500 Index rose 17.9% in 2025, while the Bloomberg US Aggregate Index increased by 7.3% [3] - The average investor experienced a positive sentiment driven by expectations of AI advancements and Federal Reserve easing [3] - Despite overall market gains, nearly half of U.S. stocks were down, with the bottom fifth of stocks in the Russell 3000 experiencing a median loss of 40% [18] Economic Indicators - U.S. GDP grew by 4.3% in Q3 2025, with healthcare spending and construction of new AI data centers contributing significantly to this growth [17] - The Federal Reserve's policies have led to a financial system reliant on permanent liquidity, raising concerns about long-term inflation and economic inequality [10][13] Fund Performance - The Palm Valley Capital Fund achieved a total return of 4.46% in 2025, underperforming the S&P SmallCap 600 and Morningstar SmallCap benchmarks, which gained 6.02% and 12.20% respectively [32] - The Fund's equity positions increased by 1.12% over the last quarter, benefiting from exposure to precious metals [31] Investment Opportunities - New positions were added in Domino's Pizza Group, Utz Brands, and Ingredion, with each company showing potential for growth despite current challenges [33][36][39] - Domino's holds a significant market share in the UK pizza delivery market but faces growth challenges due to a pressured consumer environment [34] - Utz Brands is well-positioned with strong free cash flow potential and improving margins, trading at approximately 12x estimated free cash flow [37] - Ingredion is focusing on modified ingredients to address wellness trends and has improved its balance sheet, trading at 10x earnings [39] Market Trends - The "Visine effect" suggests that underperforming stocks are often discarded without sensitivity to price, impacting smaller companies more significantly [21] - The rise of passive investing has altered market dynamics, leading to concentrated buying and selling pressures during rebalancing periods [21] - Despite a strong year for equities, many small caps remain fully valued, with the average profitable non-financial member of the Russell 2000 trading at an enterprise value to operating profit of 18x [26]

Core Viewpoint - Campbell's shares have reached a 16-year low, trading at $28.58, a decline of nearly 7% since the '3D printed meat' controversy [1][2] Stock Performance - The ongoing slump has erased all gains made over the past four years, with the stock trading well below its 2022 and 2023 averages [2] Analyst Ratings and Price Targets - DA Davidson lowered Campbell's stock price target from $32 to $30 while maintaining a "Neutral" rating, citing weakness in consumer spending and competition in the food sector [5] - Deutsche Bank adjusted its price target to $31 from $33, keeping a "Hold" rating, while RBC Capital cut its target from $35 to $30 with a "Sector Perform" rating [6] - Bernstein lowered its target from $39 to $33 but maintained a "Buy" rating, believing the company's products align with consumer trends [8] - Stifel Nicolaus and Wells Fargo both lowered their price outlooks to $30, opting for a "Hold" rating [9] Market Sentiment - The average stock price target for Campbell's over the next 12 months has an upside potential of 8.47%, sitting at $31.13 [12] - Overall, the sentiment among analysts is mixed, with ten "Hold" ratings, three "Sell" ratings, and only two "Buy" ratings from Bernstein and Stephens [10]

Core Insights - Hershey reported $3.18 billion in revenue for Q3 2025, a year-over-year increase of 6.5% and a surprise of +1.79% over the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.13 billion [1] - The EPS for the quarter was $1.30, compared to $2.34 a year ago, with a surprise of +19.27% over the consensus estimate of $1.09 [1] Revenue Performance - North America net sales reached $2.94 billion, exceeding the estimated $2.91 billion, reflecting a +6.1% change year-over-year [4] - International net sales were $244.8 million, surpassing the estimated $218.66 million, marking a +12.1% increase compared to the previous year [4] - North America Confectionery net sales were $2.62 billion, slightly above the estimated $2.59 billion, with a +5.6% year-over-year change [4] - North America Salty Snacks net sales amounted to $321.02 million, exceeding the estimated $313.19 million, representing a +10% increase year-over-year [4] Segment Income - North America Confectionery segment income was $571.48 million, above the estimated $556.94 million [4] - Unallocated corporate expenses showed a loss of $193.13 million, better than the average estimate of $-230.9 million [4] - North America Salty Snacks segment income was $57.75 million, slightly below the estimated $58.92 million [4] Stock Performance - Hershey's shares have returned -7.2% over the past month, while the Zacks S&P 500 composite has increased by +3.6% [3] - The stock currently holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), indicating potential performance in line with the broader market in the near term [3]

Core Insights - Goldman Sachs has added four new stocks to its Conviction List, which are expected to have double-digit upside potential and three of which offer reliable dividends [4][5][6]. Group 1: Goldman Sachs Conviction List - The Conviction List is a curated selection of stocks that Goldman Sachs analysts believe will outperform the market, focusing on themes like artificial intelligence and sustainability [2][4]. - The four new stocks added in October are Abbott Laboratories, Air Products and Chemicals, Hershey, and Madison Square Garden Entertainment [5][6]. Group 2: Stock Details - **Abbott Laboratories**: Offers a 1.74% dividend with a target price of $157, indicating a potential 17% gain [7][8]. - **Air Products and Chemicals**: Provides a 2.63% dividend and has a target price of $335, suggesting a 23% upside [9][15]. - **Hershey**: Features a 2.82% dividend with a target price of $222, representing a potential 19% gain [16][20]. - **Madison Square Garden Entertainment**: A live entertainment company with a target price of $52, indicating a 15% upside [21][23].

Core Viewpoint - PepsiCo Inc. has faced significant stock pressure, with a decline of 5.89% in 2025 and 19.5% over the last 12 months, reflecting broader challenges in the consumer staples sector [1][2] Group 1: Stock Performance and Market Context - The total return for PepsiCo stock over the last three years is negative 9.1%, indicating a decline in overall stock value despite a growing dividend yield of 4.02% [4] - Rising inflation and interest rates have pressured the core consumer, contributing to the stock's weak performance [5] - The consumer staples sector, including PepsiCo, has been under pressure for several years, complicating the narrative around interest rate cuts potentially benefiting the stock [2][9] Group 2: Demand Challenges and Competitive Landscape - The adoption of GLP-1 drugs is impacting consumer demand for soft drinks and salty snacks, posing a challenge to PepsiCo's traditional strengths [3] - Consumers are increasingly opting for store brands due to lower prices, which further pressures PepsiCo's market position [6] Group 3: Earnings and Strategic Pressure - PepsiCo's earnings per share (EPS) for the first two quarters were $3.6, down 7% year over year, raising concerns among investors [7] - Elliott Investment Management has taken a $4 billion stake in PepsiCo, urging the company to improve margins and consider divesting low-margin brands [7][8] Group 4: Dividend and Valuation Insights - PepsiCo's dividend yield is currently at 3.99%, with an annual dividend of $5.69 and a payout ratio of 103.64% [9] - The stock appears reasonably valued at around 17.2x forward earnings, trading at a discount to its historical average and the consumer staples sector average [11]