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股价腰斩、核心增长引擎失速、继承人问题.......奢侈品巨头LVMH遭遇史上最严重危机
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen· 2025-06-19 10:10
当全球最大奢侈品集团的掌舵人在股东大会上为背景音乐发牢骚时,你就知道事情变得有多糟糕了。 LVMH总裁兼CEO Bernard Arnault正面临一场史无前例的完美风暴:全球需求急剧萎缩、美国关税威胁步步紧逼、股价从峰值腰斩、个人财富蒸 发超过800亿美元。 更致命的是,这位76岁的"穿开司米羊绒衫的狼"发现自己精心打造的850亿欧元奢侈品帝国正暴露出结构性裂痕——从核心品牌Dior的增长失速到 继承人计划的模糊不清,一切都在提醒市场:LVMH的黄金时代可能真的结束了。 市值蒸发2210亿欧元:从欧洲之王到第十富豪的坠落 数字不会撒谎。LVMH股价自2023年4月峰值以来几乎腰斩,市值蒸发约2210亿欧元。今年以来,公司股价下跌超30%。 这家曾经的欧洲三大市值公司已不再位列前三,法国最有价值公司的桂冠也被宿敌爱马仕夺走——讽刺的是,这正是Arnault曾试图秘密收购但失 败的公司。 Arnault的个人财富从2024年3月的2310亿美元峰值暴跌至约1490亿美元,从全球首富跌至第十位。这位古典钢琴家、曾经睥睨北美以外所有富豪 的消费品巨头,如今看起来远非奥林匹亚般的神祇。 AIR Capital研究主管 ...
Retail Reality Check: JPMorgan Flags Kohl's Leverage Risks, Sees Signs of Stability At Vail And Foot Locker
Benzinga· 2025-06-18 19:32
Group 1: Kohl's Corporation - Kohl's continues to experience revenue declines in apparel, footwear, and legacy homes despite sales gains from in-store initiatives like Sephora and Home Décor [2] - Structural risks to Kohl's store footprint are significant, with adjusted debt/EBITDAR ending 2023 at 3.6x, above the company's target of ~2.5x, and projected leverage may exceed 4x through 2024–26 [3] - Analyst forecasts fiscal year 2025 EPS at 56 cents and fiscal year 2026 EPS at 53 cents, both above Street estimates, while maintaining an Underweight rating with a price forecast of $8 [4] Group 2: Vail Resorts, Inc. - Vail Resorts may be nearing a turning point in revenue and earnings, aided by the return of former CEO Katz and unique growth drivers [5] - Key advantages include a premium resort portfolio, upfront revenue from the Epic Pass strategy, and a resilient customer base of high-income, frequent skiers [5] - Projected fiscal year 2025 adjusted EBITDA is $866 million and fiscal year 2026 at $908 million, both slightly above Street estimates, with a Neutral rating and price forecast of $167 [6] Group 3: Foot Locker, Inc. - Foot Locker faces challenges from inconsistent same-store sales, increased promotions, and brand allocation changes, particularly with Nike [7] - Dick's Sporting Goods aims to revamp Foot Locker through a $2.4 billion acquisition to create a larger global retail sports platform and enhance omni-channel capabilities [7] - Analyst models fiscal year 2025 EPS for Foot Locker at $1.10, ahead of the Street's $1.00, with a projected rise to $1.65 for fiscal year 2026, maintaining a Neutral rating and price forecast of $24 [8]
Kohl’s(KSS) - 2026 Q1 - Earnings Call Transcript
2025-05-29 14:02
Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Net sales declined by 4.1% and comparable sales decreased by 3.9% in the quarter, attributed to the closure of 24 stores [26][27] - Gross margin increased to 39.9%, up 37 basis points year-over-year, driven by category mix benefits and inventory management [30] - SG&A expenses decreased by 5.2% to $1.2 billion, leveraging approximately 32 basis points compared to last year [30] - The company reported a net loss of $15 million, with earnings per diluted share of negative $0.13, a 46% improvement from the previous year [31] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Jewelry sales increased by 10% in Q1, primarily driven by Kohl's card customers, following the reintroduction of jewelry into stores [15][16] - Women's apparel is being rebalanced to improve performance, focusing on essentials and proprietary brands [17][19] - Sephora's net sales were up 6% and comparable sales increased by 1% in Q1, contributing to a nearly $2 billion beauty business [18] - The impulse queue line rollout is expected to enhance sales, with plans to expand to nearly all stores by Q3 [18] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The digital business saw a sales decline of 7.7% in the quarter, underperforming compared to store sales, which declined by 2.6% [27][28] - The middle and low-income customers are under pressure, prioritizing value and trading down to lower-priced products [28] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on three key areas: offering a curated assortment, reestablishing value and quality, and enhancing the omnichannel shopping experience [12][19][23] - Plans for 2025 include improving product assortment clarity and investing in proprietary brands to better serve customer needs [13][19] - The company aims to enhance promotions by including more brands in coupon eligibility, responding positively to customer feedback [21][22] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledges the ongoing transformation and the need to align the business with customer needs, particularly focusing on value [40][41] - The company is navigating a fluid environment with uncertainties, particularly affecting middle-income customers [43][44] - Despite challenges, management remains optimistic about achieving financial guidance for the year, with expectations of comparable sales down 4% to 6% [36] Other Important Information - The company completed a private offering of $360 million in senior secured notes, expected to close on May 30, to refinance upcoming debt maturities [34][35] - Inventory strategies are being implemented to manage tariff pressures, with expectations of inventory down high single digits by year-end [32][36] Q&A Session Summary Question: Any adjustments to strategic priorities and what will it take to return to comp growth? - Management does not foresee major changes to the strategy and emphasizes understanding customer needs to restore growth [39][40] Question: Insights on quarter-to-date trends and tariff impacts? - Management holds the full-year guidance due to uncertainties and notes consistent performance with some weather-related impacts [42][44][46] Question: Breakdown of gross margin increase and private label performance? - The increase in gross margin is attributed to a favorable category mix and improved inventory management, with proprietary brands expected to enhance margins [50][52] Question: Assessment of store footprint and potential closures? - The company has a healthy store base and will continue to evaluate store performance, with closures being part of regular hygiene [60][62] Question: Update on Sephora collaboration and operating environment? - Sephora is now present in all stores, and while comp growth has moderated, the company is pleased with market share gains in beauty [73][75] Question: E-commerce performance and profitability outlook? - Digital sales declined but are expected to improve as core customers return, with profitability being lower than stores due to shipping costs [80][84]
Kohl’s(KSS) - 2026 Q1 - Earnings Call Presentation
2025-05-29 11:06
Q1 Results Presentation May 29, 2025 1 Cautionary Statement Regarding Forward-Looking Information This presentation contains "forward-looking statements" within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. The Company intends forward-looking terminology such as "believes," "expects," "may," "will," "should," "anticipates," "plans," or similar expressions to identify forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements include, but are not limited to, statements regarding our 2025 a ...
Kohl’s(KSS) - 2025 Q4 - Earnings Call Transcript
2025-03-11 14:02
Kohl’s (KSS) Q4 2025 Earnings Call March 11, 2025 09:00 AM ET Company Participants Trevor Novotny - Senior Finance Manager, Investor RelationsAshley Buchanan - CEOJill Timm - Chief Financial OfficerDana Telsey - CEO and Chief Research OfficerOliver Chen - Managing Director - Retail, Luxury, New Platforms Sector HeadMichael Binetti - Senior Managing DirectorAshley Helgans - Senior Vice PresidentBrooke Roach - Vice President - Equity Research Conference Call Participants Mark Altschwager - Senior Research Ana ...
Kohl’s(KSS) - 2025 Q4 - Earnings Call Transcript
2025-03-11 13:00
Kohl’s (KSS) Q4 2025 Earnings Call March 11, 2025 09:00 AM ET Company Participants Trevor Novotny - Senior Finance Manager, Investor RelationsAshley Buchanan - CEOJill Timm - Chief Financial OfficerDana Telsey - CEO and Chief Research OfficerOliver Chen - Managing Director - Retail, Luxury, New Platforms Sector HeadMichael Binetti - Senior Managing DirectorAshley Helgans - Senior Vice PresidentBrooke Roach - Vice President - Equity Research Conference Call Participants Mark Altschwager - Senior Research Ana ...