Global Markets Strategy 14 June 2025 Wendy Liu AC (852) 2800-1087 wendy.m.liu@jpmorgan.com J.P. Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Limited/ J.P. Morgan Broking (Hong Kong) Limited Erin Zhang, CFA 更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 China Equity Strategy China consumption: From Goods to Experiences While China's overall consumption trends have been lackluster since re-opening, shares of selected "new consumption" stocks have significantly outperformed the MXCN index YTD. An average weighted index consisting of stocks ...

China Internet Equities How to position for 2H25 China Emerging themes and observations: 1) Content consumption: Demand in the games and entertainment sub-sectors has been more resilient than goods and services y-t-d. Good content takes time and resources to curate, setting a high entry barrier for newcomers. This acts as a defensive earning buffer for top content providers like Tencent and NetEase. 2) AI outlook: Lower-than-expected capex and cloud revenue growth has dented the market's confidence about th ...

Core Viewpoint - Tencent is expected to report first-quarter 2025 earnings on May 13, with earnings estimated at 88 cents per share, reflecting an 18.92% year-over-year growth, and revenues projected at $24.26 billion, indicating an 8.89% year-over-year increase [1]. Group 1: Earnings Performance - Tencent has surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings in each of the last four quarters, with an average surprise of 11.65% [2]. - The upcoming earnings report is anticipated to reflect the impact of various ongoing initiatives across gaming, advertising, fintech, and AI infrastructure [3]. Group 2: Gaming Sector - The domestic gaming sector is expected to show continued momentum from Q4 2024, supported by popular titles such as Honor of Kings and contributions from new releases like DnF Mobile and Delta Force [4]. - All five of Tencent's highest-grossing games recorded year-over-year daily active user increases during the 2025 Spring Festival, indicating sustained user engagement [4]. - Deferred revenue, which grew by a high-teens percentage year-over-year in 2024, is expected to positively impact the top line for the quarter [4]. Group 3: Advertising Services - Marketing services revenues increased by 17% year-over-year in Q4 2024, driven by AI enhancements and strong demand from various sectors including e-commerce and healthcare [5]. - Video Accounts Marketing Services revenues grew over 60% year-over-year, while Weixin Search ad revenue more than doubled, suggesting continued advertising growth [5]. Group 4: FinTech Sector - In the fintech segment, commercial payment revenues were flat year-over-year in the previous quarter, with transaction volumes rising but average selling prices under pressure [6]. - This trend is expected to continue in Q1 2025, with improving consumer demand but ongoing supply-side pricing pressures [6]. Group 5: AI Development - The AI-native application Yuanbao saw a 20-fold increase in daily active users from February to March, although revenue impact in Q1 is expected to be limited due to GPU supply constraints [7]. - Tencent significantly increased its investment in AI development in Q4 2024, with a 21% year-over-year rise in R&D expenses and a 421% increase in capital expenditures [8]. - The company plans to further boost R&D spending and capital expenditures in 2025 to enhance AI infrastructure and model development [8].

BLG与EDG这对老对手在败者组半决赛中迎来了双方第十次交锋。此前九战皆负的BLG这次终于 迈过了这道坎，他们在关键之战中以2:1取胜，留在了舞台上。赛前被看好的EDG战队最终获得第一赛 段殿军，无缘多伦多大师赛。 锁定大师赛入场券后，BLG战队士气高涨，他们在败者组决赛中3:0零封WOL战队，进军总决赛。 XLG与BLG携手带来了一场精彩的总决赛对抗。BLG在图一中取得5:0的开局，但已经完成蜕变的 XLG战队迅速进行调整并将比赛带入加时，最终以15:13赢得开门红。图二争夺，仍是XLG小胜一筹， 以13:10取胜的他们率先拿下赛点。 背水一战的BLG随后扳回一城，但他们在图四争夺中又一次倒在加时赛中，最终以总比分1:3遗憾 告负。"黑马"XLG战队由此捧起了VCT CN联赛第一赛段冠军奖杯，队中选手Rarga荣膺FMVP。 原标题：目标多伦多大师赛，三支VCT CN联赛战队能否带来惊喜？ 中新网北京5月7日电 2025无畏契约冠军巡回赛(VCT)CN联赛第一赛段日前在京收官。XLG战队在 总决赛中3:1战胜BLG战队，捧起冠军奖杯。WOL战队与上述两支队伍获得了代表赛区参加多伦多大师 赛的资格，该赛事将于 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tencent Holdings with a target price of HK$681, indicating an expected share price increase of 47.9% from the current price of HK$460.40 [2][7]. Core Insights - The 2025 Spark Game Conference showcased a total of 46 game titles, including 26 new games, which is a 35% increase from the previous year. Key titles such as HoK: World, Roco Kingdom, Valorant, and The Finals received significant attention from viewers [1]. - Tencent's strength in self-development and publishing capabilities was highlighted, with a diverse range of game genres presented from both domestic and global studios [1]. - The report emphasizes the positive user feedback and engagement during the conference, suggesting a constructive outlook for Tencent's gaming segment [1]. Summary by Sections Self-Development Games - Tencent presented 18 games from its in-house studios, including notable titles like HoK and CODM, which achieved over 1 billion downloads in 2024 [4][5]. Publishing Games - A total of 13 new licensed titles were showcased, including Path of Exile 2 and The Finals, indicating a robust pipeline for Tencent's publishing segment [5]. Investment Games - Eight games from Tencent's investees were highlighted, including Phantom Blade Zero and Dune: Awakening, showcasing Tencent's strategic investments in the gaming industry [6]. Valuation - The target price of HK$681 is derived from a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation approach, applying various price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios to different segments, including online games, advertising, social networks, fintech, and cloud services [7].

一个糟糕的先例。 文丨孙海宁 高洪浩 编辑丨黄俊杰 腾讯和宁德时代在美国当地时间 1 月 6 日晚间被美国国防部列入 "中国军工企业清单"（1260H 清单）。 腾讯和军事关系最密切的时候或许是投资（后又撤资）《壮志凌云：独行侠》、在手机游戏里让玩家控制 3D 士兵拿枪对射。而宁德时代则多次推动在美国合建电池工厂，提供技术授权。两家公司都在民用市场 赚取收益。 几小时后，腾讯声明自己并不是军工企业或者军民融合企业，被列入清单 "是一个错误"，称将启动复议程 序以纠正错误。宁德时代发表了类似的声明，否认参与任何涉及军事的业务或活动，美国国防部的决定 "实属错误"。两家公司均考虑对此采取法律行动。中国外交部则表示 "坚决反对美方泛化国家安全概念， 划设各类名目的歧视性清单，无理打压中国企业，遏制中国高质量发展。" 此前也有多个中国企业在被列入该清单后发起申诉或者法律诉讼，成功将自己的名字移除。 如腾讯和宁德时代所说，这可能只是一个错误。但当中国市值最高的互联网公司和市值最高的新能源车产 业公司一齐被列入军工企业清单，很难说这是巧合。 1260H 清单很难直接影响中国企业，但它依然能造成问题 列清单是为了方便制裁。 ...