Core Insights - Cisco Systems' networking revenues increased by 15% year-over-year to $7.77 billion in the first quarter of fiscal 2026, driven by strong demand for AI infrastructure and campus networking solutions [1][9] - The company anticipates a multi-year, multibillion-dollar refresh opportunity in campus networking as demand for next-gen solutions like smart switches and Wi-Fi 7 products grows [2] - Cisco expects to generate over $2 billion from high-performance networking products, supported by strategic partnerships and the launch of the Unified Edge platform [3][9] Networking Revenue Growth - Networking product orders grew in the high teens for the fifth consecutive quarter, indicating robust growth across hyperscale infrastructure, enterprise routing, campus switching, and industrial IoT [2] - The demand for next-gen solutions is expected to drive significant revenue growth in fiscal 2026 [2] Competitive Landscape - Cisco faces strong competition from Arista Networks and Hewlett Packard Enterprise in the networking domain [4] - Arista Networks is gaining traction in high-performance switching products, while Hewlett Packard Enterprise is focusing on AI and IoT to diversify its business [5][6] Stock Performance and Valuation - Cisco shares have appreciated 29.6% year-to-date, outperforming the broader Zacks Computer and Technology sector's return of 23.5% [7] - The stock is trading at a premium with a trailing 12-month price/book ratio of 6.42X compared to the industry average of 6.05X [11] Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the second quarter of fiscal 2026 earnings is $1.01 per share, reflecting a 7.45% growth from the previous year [13]

21 November 2025 | 3:18AM EST Equity Research AMERICAS TECHNOLOGY: HARDWARE 2025 bus tour takeaways: ANET, SMCI, 650 Group, CSCO We hosted a hardware investor bus tour in California on November 20th, 2025 to meet with management teams from Arista Networks (ANET, Buy), Super Micro (SMCI, Sell), 650 Group (Private), and Cisco Systems (CSCO, Neutral). Going into the day, we were positive on networking in AI given the growing importance of GPU utilization and uptimes and the relative underinvestment in networki ...

Summary of Cisco's Earnings Call Company Overview - **Company**: Cisco - **Date**: November 18, 2025 Key Industry Insights - Cisco merged opportunities in Enterprise, Sovereign, and New Cloud sectors, revealing over $200 million in orders to showcase AI-driven growth opportunities and update market information, primarily involving systems and optical products [2][3] - AI revenue is derived mainly from Series A K, Silicon One, and optical products, with systems and optical products each accounting for 50% of the revenue [2][9] - Demand for DCI (Data Center Interconnect) related products has significantly increased, particularly for coherent pluggable optics [2][9] Core Business Strategies - Cisco's deep involvement in the design process with Hyper Scalers and the implementation of a Silicon strategy have reduced reliance on external supply chains, enabling success in the AI sector and effectively addressing supply chain challenges [2][8] - Collaboration with NVIDIA on the N9,200 switch may lower profit margins due to the use of external chips, but the integration of software and enterprise sales channel advantages enhances customer satisfaction and market competitiveness [2][11] Market Position and Competition - Cisco believes that white box switches do not pose a substantial threat to its market position and gross margins, as it possesses silicon technology and operating systems, maintaining close relationships with Hyper Scaler customers to meet complex network demands [2][13] - The company is optimistic about the growth of its security business, targeting a long-term growth rate of 15% to 17% annually, despite recent underperformance due to a transition period between old and new products [4][17] Financial Performance and Projections - Cisco's $2 billion pipeline includes opportunities from Sovereign enterprises and emerging cloud vendors, with the timing of project rollouts dependent on market demand and project progress [5][6] - The company expects that the conversion of orders to revenue typically takes about six months, but it can be quicker, around 90 days, depending on external factors [7] Product Development and Customer Needs - The hybrid work trend has impacted Cisco's collaboration business, which remains stable due to a strong product portfolio and cash flow generation capabilities [4][19] - Cisco's strategy for product updates involves a gradual approach, allowing customers to transition from older products to newer models, ensuring service continuity and security [15][16] Future Outlook - Cisco is optimistic about the future, particularly in AI and security sectors, and is positioned to leverage its dual technology strengths in networking and security [21][22] - The company emphasizes the importance of enhancing remote participant experiences in hybrid work environments and continues to focus on AI advancements as a key growth area [22][23] Additional Considerations - The transition to cloud subscriptions in the Slunk business has altered revenue recognition methods, leading to short-term revenue softness but aligning with long-term strategic goals [18] - Cisco's diverse supply chain strategy, including both proprietary and third-party components, ensures production stability and mitigates risks associated with single supply chain dependencies [11]

Summary of Cisco Systems FY Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Cisco Systems (NasdaqGS:CSCO) - **Date of Conference**: November 18, 2025 - **Speaker**: Mark Paterson, CFO Key Industry Insights - **Growth Drivers**: Cisco identifies several key growth drivers for the upcoming 12 to 24 months, including: - AI networking and infrastructure - Cybersecurity enhancements, particularly following the acquisition of Splunk - A significant campus refresh opportunity due to aging equipment and increased security needs [11][15][17] Financial Performance - **Recent Earnings**: Cisco reported strong earnings with broad-based order growth across geographies and customer markets, indicating a robust demand for its products [15][12] - **Order Growth**: The company achieved $1.3 billion in new orders from top hyperscalers in Q1, significantly exceeding its previous target of $1 billion [20][26] - **Revenue Projections**: Cisco anticipates over $3 billion in revenue from AI-related orders this fiscal year, up from $1 billion last year [28][26] AI and Hyperscaler Engagement - **AI Infrastructure**: Cisco's role in AI has evolved, with a focus on providing critical technology for hyperscalers and enterprise AI applications. The company aims to double its previous year's order growth, targeting $4 billion in AI-related orders [25][26] - **Web Scalers**: Cisco has seen over 100% growth in orders from four different web scalers, indicating strong demand for its AI infrastructure solutions [43][42] Campus Upgrade Cycle - **Multi-Year Opportunity**: The campus upgrade cycle is expected to be a multi-year, multi-billion dollar opportunity driven by aging equipment, security risks, and the need for AI application deployment [80][81] - **Product Innovations**: Cisco has introduced a comprehensive refresh of its campus switches and security products, integrating AI capabilities to meet evolving customer needs [81][82] Competitive Landscape - **Market Position**: Cisco reported a 13% global order growth, with a 9% growth excluding web scale, indicating strong competitive positioning despite a competitive market [93][96] - **Customer Adoption**: The transition to new platforms in campus networking technologies is happening faster than previous launches, showcasing strong customer adoption [96][95] Silicon One Strategy - **Strategic Asset**: Silicon One is highlighted as a critical asset for Cisco, providing technological advantages and cost savings, which are appealing to hyperscalers [102][108] - **Future Plans**: Cisco plans to have all high-powered systems based on Silicon One by FY2029, enhancing control over its supply chain and gross margins [109][108] Security Business Dynamics - **Revenue Trends**: Cisco's security business is experiencing a transition to cloud offerings, which may temporarily impact revenue recognition but is expected to lead to stronger long-term growth [125][126] - **Customer Adoption**: The company has seen a growing customer base for its new security technologies, with 3,000 new customers added recently [127][126] Supply Chain and Pricing Strategy - **Component Costs**: Cisco is facing memory price increases and supply chain challenges but has managed to maintain stable gross margins [145][146] - **Pricing Adjustments**: The company implemented a price increase at the beginning of the quarter to address rising component costs, which has helped mitigate some margin pressures [154][153] Government Exposure - **Public Sector Growth**: Cisco's public sector business, particularly in defense and intelligence, is performing well, with mid to upper single-digit growth expected [160][161] Capital Return Strategy - **Share Buybacks**: Cisco plans to continue its share buyback program, with a run rate of $1 billion per quarter, while also supporting its dividend [169][170] Investor Insights - **Networking Importance**: The critical role of networking in AI and hyperscale environments is emphasized, highlighting the ongoing demand for Cisco's networking solutions [174][175] - **Market Opportunities**: Even amidst concerns about an AI bubble, Cisco sees significant opportunities in networking spend associated with AI growth projections [177][178]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Cisco reported Q1 revenue of $14.9 billion, an 8% increase year-over-year, with non-GAAP net income of $4 billion, up 9%, and non-GAAP earnings per share of $1, up 10% [5][18] - Non-GAAP gross margin was 68.1%, down 120 basis points year-over-year, while non-GAAP product gross margin was 67.2%, down 170 basis points [22] - Operating cash flow was $3.2 billion, down 12% due to investments in AI infrastructure [22] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Total product revenue was $11.1 billion, up 10%, with networking revenue growing 15%, driven by service provider routing and AI infrastructure [19] - Security revenue decreased by 2%, reflecting declines in prior-generation products and a shift to cloud subscriptions [20] - Collaboration revenue was down 3%, while observability revenue increased by 6% [20] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Product orders grew 13% year-over-year, with service provider and cloud orders up 45%, public sector orders up 12%, and enterprise orders up 4% [21] - Product orders were up across all geographic segments, with the Americas up 16%, EMEA up 8%, and APJC up 13% [21] Company Strategy and Development Direction - Cisco is focusing on AI infrastructure, with expectations to recognize approximately $3 billion in AI infrastructure revenue from hyperscalers in fiscal year 2026 [9] - The company is expanding partnerships, including with G42 in the UAE and NVIDIA, to enhance its AI capabilities [11][12] - Cisco aims to capture the multi-year refresh opportunity in networking products as older models reach end-of-support [40] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the strong demand for AI infrastructure and the critical role of secure networking as organizations deploy AI [6] - The company anticipates continued growth in AI-related orders and a robust pipeline exceeding $2 billion for NeoCloud and Sovereign Cloud [29][60] - Management acknowledged challenges in the security segment but remains committed to long-term growth targets [74] Other Important Information - Cisco returned $3.6 billion to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases, representing 125% of free cash flow in Q1 [5] - The company expects revenue for Q2 to be in the range of $15 billion to $15.2 billion and for fiscal year 2026 to be between $60.2 billion and $61 billion [24] Q&A Session Summary Question: Insights on AI orders and pipeline - Management clarified that the $3 billion AI revenue target for fiscal 2026 is based on hyperscale AI infrastructure, with expectations for at least double the orders received in fiscal year 2025 [27][28] Question: Impact of DRAM pricing on gross margin - Management noted tightening supply and significant price increases in memory, which are factored into the updated guidance for Q2 and the year [33] Question: Growth in the rest of the business - Management indicated that excluding hyperscaler growth, the rest of the business grew 9% in Q1 from an orders perspective [37] Question: Multi-year cycles and refresh opportunities - Management highlighted the ongoing refresh opportunities in enterprise routing and campus switches, with faster adoption rates than previous launches [40] Question: Silicon One penetration and traction - Management expects Silicon One to be fully rolled out across the portfolio by the end of fiscal 2029, emphasizing its performance and programmability [46] Question: Security revenue normalization - Management anticipates that the normalization of the security revenue mix will take about four quarters, with a commitment to mid-teens long-term growth [74]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Cisco reported Q1 revenue of $14.9 billion, an 8% increase year-over-year, with non-GAAP net income rising to $4 billion, up 9% [16][18] - Non-GAAP earnings per share (EPS) reached $1, reflecting a 10% growth, indicating that earnings are growing faster than revenue [16][18] - Total annualized recurring revenue (ARR) was $31.4 billion, a 5% increase, with product ARR growing by 7% [18] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Total product revenue was $11.1 billion, up 10%, while service revenue increased by 2% to $3.8 billion [17] - Networking products saw a significant growth of 15%, driven by service provider routing and AI infrastructure [17] - Security revenue declined by 2%, attributed to shifts towards cloud subscriptions and declines in prior-generation products [17][19] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Product orders grew by 13% year-over-year, with service provider and cloud orders up 45% [18] - Orders from the public sector increased by 12%, while enterprise orders rose by 4% [18] - Geographic performance showed the Americas up 16%, EMEA up 8%, and APJC up 13% in product orders [18] Company Strategy and Development Direction - Cisco is focusing on AI infrastructure and secure networking as critical growth areas, with expectations of $3 billion in AI infrastructure revenue from hyperscalers in FY2026 [8][21] - The company is expanding partnerships, including with G42 and NVIDIA, to enhance its AI capabilities and product offerings [10][11] - Cisco aims to capitalize on the multi-year refresh opportunity in networking products as older models reach end-of-support [30] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the strong demand for AI-related products and the need for modern networking infrastructure to support AI initiatives [5][6] - The company anticipates continued growth in the second half of FY2026, driven by strategic investments and innovation [20][21] - Management acknowledged challenges in the supply chain, particularly regarding memory and optics, but remains optimistic about meeting demand [27][54] Other Important Information - Cisco returned $3.6 billion to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases, representing 125% of free cash flow in Q1 [4][19] - The company reported a non-GAAP gross margin of 68.1%, slightly down from the previous year but above guidance [19] - Total cash, cash equivalents, and investments at the end of Q1 were $15.7 billion [19] Q&A Session Summary Question: Insights on AI orders and WebScale opportunities - Management clarified that the $3 billion AI revenue target for FY2026 is based on existing customer orders, with expectations for at least double the orders from FY2025 [22][23] Question: Growth in enterprise orders and pipeline - The NeoCloud and Sovereign Cloud enterprise pipeline exceeds $2 billion, with $200 million booked in Q1, indicating strong future potential [23][24] Question: Impact of DRAM pricing on gross margin - Management acknowledged tightening supply and price increases in memory and optics but stated these factors are accounted for in their guidance [27][28] Question: Multi-year cycles and product refresh opportunities - Management highlighted the accelerated ramp of new products, indicating strong customer interest in modernizing network infrastructure [30] Question: Security revenue and future growth expectations - Management reiterated commitment to mid-teens long-term growth in security revenue, expecting normalization of the mix shift to take about four quarters [51][52]

Group 1 - Jim Cramer discussed Broadcom Inc. (NASDAQ:AVGO) in the context of Cisco's new networking chip, Silicon One, which is aimed at connecting AI data centers [2] - Cramer highlighted that there is sufficient demand for both Cisco and Broadcom's products, indicating a healthy market for both companies [2] - Melius Research reassured investors that Broadcom's business remains strong, emphasizing that there is ample opportunity for both companies to thrive in the current market [2] Group 2 - The article suggests that while Broadcom is a viable investment, there are AI stocks that may offer higher returns with lower risk [3] - The mention of potential investment opportunities in AI stocks indicates a competitive landscape where Broadcom is one of many players [3]

Market Overview - U.S. equity markets are experiencing a slight pullback after a week of record gains, with major indices consolidating amidst optimism around AI and macroeconomic uncertainties, particularly the government shutdown [1][2][11] - The S&P 500 is down approximately 0.3% from its record close of 6,753.72, while the Nasdaq Composite also fell around 0.3% after reaching 23,043.38 [2] Sector Performance - Year-to-date, the S&P 500 has gained 14.8%, with technology leading the way, alongside Basic Materials and Communication Services, which have seen gains of 28.90% and 24.18% respectively [3] - Energy and financial stocks are stable, benefiting from stable oil prices and favorable interest rate prospects, although there are concerns about market overheating, particularly regarding the "Magnificent Seven" megacaps [3] Upcoming Economic Events - The U.S. government shutdown is ongoing, limiting key economic data releases, which has heightened investor focus on other market drivers [4] - The Federal Reserve is a focal point, with a high probability (around 95%) of an October rate cut anticipated, as revealed in the minutes from the September meeting [5] Earnings Season - The third-quarter earnings season has begun, with Delta Air Lines reporting record revenue and a positive outlook, leading to a stock surge of over 4% [6] - PepsiCo's stock rose by 3.5% after exceeding Q3 estimates and announcing a CFO change, while major banks are expected to report a 7.9% year-over-year earnings growth rate for the S&P 500 [6] Notable Stock Movements - Nvidia reached an all-time intraday high of $195.30, climbing nearly 3% after a price target increase by an analyst, driven by increased demand for computing [7] - Advanced Micro Devices rose over 11% following a significant deal with OpenAI, while Cisco unveiled a new product aimed at AI data centers [7][8] Commodities Market - Gold futures pulled back about 1% but remain above $4,000 per ounce, with a year-to-date increase of over 50% [10] - Silver hit $50 for the first time since 1980, marking a 60% year-to-date gain, while crude oil prices retreated slightly to $61.35 per barrel [10]

Summary of Cisco's Earnings Call Company Overview - **Company**: Cisco Systems, Inc. - **Key Executives**: - Jitu Patel, President and Chief Product Officer - Mark Patterson, EVP and Chief Financial Officer Core Industry Insights - **Industry**: Networking and Cybersecurity - **Trends**: - Increased demand for AI infrastructure and services - Shift towards integrated platforms rather than standalone products - Growing importance of security integrated within networking solutions Key Points and Arguments 1. Integration and Innovation - Cisco has shifted from operating as a collection of business units to a more integrated platform approach, enhancing innovation and product synergy [7][8] - The focus is on creating a cohesive technology stack that combines networking and security, which is expected to provide a competitive advantage [12][19] 2. AI and Network Traffic - The rise of agentic AI will lead to significant changes in network traffic patterns, requiring infrastructure that can handle increased and sustained traffic [10][42] - Cisco is positioned to address these needs with its smart switch technology that integrates security and network processing [12][30] 3. Financial Discipline and Growth - Cisco reported strong earnings growth, with earnings expected to outpace revenue growth in the upcoming quarters [55][56] - The company is focusing on productivity and resource allocation to capitalize on AI and infrastructure opportunities [14][17] 4. Strategic Partnerships - Cisco has established a strategic partnership with NVIDIA, integrating their technologies to enhance AI capabilities and market positioning [36][38] - This partnership allows Cisco to be part of NVIDIA's reference architecture, which is crucial for enterprise AI deployments [38][39] 5. Infrastructure Constraints - Cisco anticipates three major constraints in the future: infrastructure limitations, trust deficits in AI systems, and data gaps [28][30] - The company is actively working to address these constraints through its product offerings and strategic initiatives [30] 6. Zero Trust Security Model - Cisco is implementing a universal Zero Trust Network Access (ZTNA) framework to enhance security across all devices and applications, including AI agents [50][51] - This approach aims to mitigate risks associated with over-provisioning permissions and ensure secure access for both human and machine identities [49][50] 7. Market Positioning and Future Outlook - Cisco is well-positioned to benefit from the ongoing digital transformation and the need for modernized data centers and workplaces [22][23] - The company is focusing on re-architecting its offerings to ensure they are AI-ready and resilient against future challenges [23][44] 8. Cultural Shift - A significant cultural change within Cisco emphasizes building innovative products rather than relying solely on acquisitions, fostering a more agile and responsive organization [64][65] - This shift has led to increased employee engagement and a renewed sense of purpose within the company [65] Additional Important Insights - Cisco's acquisition of Splunk enhances its ability to correlate network and security data, improving incident response times [23] - The company is adapting to global supply chain challenges and tariffs, leveraging its scale to mitigate impacts [58][59] This summary encapsulates the key insights and strategic directions discussed during Cisco's earnings call, highlighting the company's focus on innovation, integration, and addressing future challenges in the networking and cybersecurity landscape.

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported total revenue of $14.7 billion for Q4, an increase of 8% year over year [22] - Non-GAAP net income was $4 billion, up 12%, with non-GAAP earnings per share at $0.99, reflecting a 14% increase [22][23] - For the full fiscal year, total revenue reached $56.7 billion, up 5%, with non-GAAP earnings per share at $3.81, a 2% increase [29][31] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Total product revenue was $10.9 billion, up 10%, while services revenue remained flat at $3.8 billion [23][24] - Networking revenue grew by 12%, driven by double-digit growth in internet infrastructure and enterprise routing [24] - Security revenue increased by 9%, primarily due to growth from Splunk and SASE offerings [24] - Collaboration revenue rose by 2%, supported by solid growth in devices [24] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Product orders in Q4 grew by 7% year over year, with the Americas up 5%, EMEA up 10%, and APJC up 7% [26] - Service provider and cloud orders surged by 49%, while enterprise orders increased by 5% and public sector orders declined by 6% [26][9] - AI infrastructure orders from web scale customers exceeded $800 million in Q4, totaling over $2 billion for the fiscal year [8][12] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on AI infrastructure, with a strong emphasis on networking and security solutions to support the AI era [7][12] - Cisco aims to leverage its refreshed product portfolio, including Silicon One and AI-native security solutions, to meet increasing network demands [7][12] - The company is positioned to capitalize on the growing demand for AI solutions, particularly in the enterprise and web scale markets [12][14] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the ongoing demand for AI infrastructure and the company's ability to deliver critical solutions [7][12] - The company anticipates a strong fiscal year 2026, driven by continued growth in AI-related orders and a robust pipeline [7][34] - Management acknowledged the complexities of the current operating environment but remains optimistic about future growth opportunities [32][34] Other Important Information - The company returned $2.9 billion to shareholders in Q4, totaling $12.4 billion for the fiscal year, representing 94% of free cash flow [7][30] - The non-GAAP gross margin for Q4 was 68.4%, up 50 basis points year over year, indicating strong profitability [26][27] Q&A Session Summary Question: Regarding guidance and AI opportunity - Management clarified that the anticipated deceleration in growth is related to year-over-year comparisons and not a change in demand [38][39] Question: Outlook for security business growth - Management expressed optimism about security growth, citing strong order growth for new products and double-digit growth outside the U.S. federal sector [44][46] Question: Concerns about order pull forwards - Management stated that there is no significant evidence of order pull forwards affecting the business, based on customer feedback and order metrics [57][60] Question: Sustainability of networking growth - Management indicated confidence in maintaining growth rates, driven by AI demand and upcoming campus upgrades [68][70] Question: AI orders translating into revenue - Management confirmed that approximately $1 billion in revenue was recognized from AI infrastructure orders during FY 2025 [76]