Investor Presentation Q4 2025 January 2026 Disclaimer Use of Non-GAAP Financial Measures This presentation includes certain non-GAAP financial measures (including on a forward-looking basis) such as Adjusted Net Revenue, Adjusted EBITDA, Adjusted EBITDA Margin, Adjusted EPS, ROTCE, Adjusted Net Income, Adjusted Net Income Margin, Adjusted Noninterest Income, and Tangible Book Value. These non-GAAP measures are in addition to, and not a substitute for or superior to, measures of financial performance prepare ...

Group 1: Market Developments - Polygon Labs is acquiring Coinme and Sequence for $250 million to enter the stablecoin-based payments market, aiming to become a leading avenue for stablecoin transactions globally [1] - The year 2026 is anticipated to be pivotal for stablecoins, transitioning from a trading tool to a payment mechanism, with several new stablecoin projects launched since December 2025 [2][3][5][6] Group 2: New Stablecoin Projects - SoFi Bank launched SoFiUSD, a fully reserved U.S. dollar-pegged stablecoin, on December 18, 2025, marking it as the first national bank to issue such a stablecoin [3] - The Pakistani government announced a partnership to integrate the USD1 stablecoin into its digital payment infrastructure on January 14, 2026 [4] - Wyoming's official Frontier stablecoin began its public launch in early January 2026 after testing phases [6] Group 3: Market Dynamics and Competition - The stablecoin market is currently dominated by Tether (USDT) and U.S. Dollar Coin (USDC), which account for most of the market cap, despite the emergence of new stablecoins [6] - Experts suggest that while the market does not need numerous stablecoins, there is a demand for niche stablecoins tailored for specific use cases, such as DeFi yields and local regulations [7][19] - Competition is expected to increase with new entrants like PayPal's PYUSD and World Liberty Financial's USD1, which may erode USDT's market share [18] Group 4: Adoption and Integration - Merchants are likely to prefer stablecoins with deep liquidity and clear compliance, focusing on those that can seamlessly integrate into existing payment systems [7][9] - Stripe has introduced stablecoin-based accounts for clients in over 100 countries, allowing customers to pay with stablecoins while merchants settle in fiat [8][9] - The integration of stablecoins into payment systems is seen as a way to reduce foreign exchange costs and enable faster settlements for merchants [15][16] Group 5: Regulatory Environment - Regulatory clarity from the U.S. and Europe is fostering bullish sentiment and adoption of stablecoins [17] - A new draft bill from the Senate Banking Committee may impose restrictions on digital asset service providers regarding interest payments on stablecoins, potentially affecting yield-bearing coins [11] Group 6: Investment Opportunities - Investment opportunities are emerging in startups focused on distribution, compliance, and workflow integration within the stablecoin ecosystem [13] - Venture capital is expected to flow into companies that facilitate merchant acceptance of stablecoins for payroll and treasury management [20]

Core Viewpoint - SoFi's stock experienced a setback due to dilution concerns from a $1.5 billion equity raise, but the overall outlook remains positive with an 81% increase in shares over the past year, indicating market confidence in its evolving business model [1]. Group 1: Business Model and Revenue Sources - SoFi is shifting towards capital-light income sources, expanding technology platform fees and financial services revenue, which generate attractive margins without significant capital investment [2]. - This shift reduces SoFi's reliance on interest income and lowers credit risk exposure, enhancing earnings resilience across various market conditions [2]. Group 2: Lending Operations - SoFi's lending operations are performing well, with solid loan originations supported by a growing and loyal deposit base, which helps maintain low funding costs [3]. - The profitability of the lending segment is sustained while the company develops less cyclical revenue streams [3]. Group 3: New Product Launches - SoFi has launched its first stablecoin, SoFiUSD, marking a significant step in diversifying its non-lending businesses and reducing dependence on interest-driven revenue [4]. Group 4: Membership Growth - A key growth driver for SoFi is its expanding member base, having added a record 905,000 new members in the last quarter, bringing total membership to 12.6 million, a 35% increase year-over-year [6]. Group 5: Valuation and Growth Potential - Despite concerns about valuation due to the sharp rise in share price, the strong underlying business suggests potential for further upside, with efficient scaling and improved revenue quality [5].

Core Viewpoint - SoFi Technologies (SOFI) shares experienced a significant decline of nearly 8% following a $1.59 billion equity offering, indicating potential bearish momentum ahead [1]. Group 1: Stock Performance - Following the recent equity offering, SoFi stock is down nearly 19% compared to its 52-week high [2]. - The stock closed below a major support level (100-day moving average), suggesting further bearish trends may develop [1]. Group 2: Earnings and Future Prospects - SoFi is scheduled to report its Q4 earnings on January 26, with consensus expectations for quarterly profit to more than double year-over-year to $0.11 per share, which could act as a near-term catalyst for recovery [4]. - Analysts from Needham maintain a "Buy" rating on SOFI with a price target of $36, indicating a potential upside of about 33% [6]. Group 3: Business Developments - The company is expanding into the cryptocurrency market and has launched the "SoFiUSD" stablecoin, diversifying its revenue streams and strengthening its position in digital assets [5]. - The core business is expected to benefit from anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2026 [5]. Group 4: Analyst Sentiment - Despite positive developments, the consensus rating on SoFi shares is currently "Hold," with a mean target of $27.53, indicating caution among analysts regarding a strong rebound in the near term [8].

Core Insights - The article outlines five key trends related to stablecoins that are expected to impact U.S. banks in the coming year, emphasizing the shift towards nonbank issuers and the integration of stablecoins into traditional banking systems [2][3]. Group 1: Nonbank Issuers - More new nonbank issuers of stablecoins are anticipated compared to bank issuers due to nonbanks' ability to implement new technology systems more rapidly and their broader access to blockchain talent [4][5]. - Recent announcements for 2026 stablecoin launches include companies like Sony, Cloudflare, and Western Union, with traditional banks lagging behind in this space [6]. Group 2: Integration with Banking - Traditional banks are expected to partner with fintech firms to facilitate stablecoin transactions rather than issuing their own stablecoins, thereby meeting client demand and increasing transaction revenue [7]. - New financial entities with banking charters, such as digital bank Erebor, are emerging to issue deposit tokens and stablecoins, blending traditional and new banking activities [8][10]. Group 3: Blurring Boundaries - The distinction between deposit tokens and stablecoins is expected to continue to blur, with banks realizing they can retain deposits while offering stablecoin flexibility [15]. - Recent developments include Custodia Bank and JPMorgan launching deposit tokens with stablecoin-like functionalities, indicating a trend towards integrating these financial instruments [14]. Group 4: Decentralization Experiments - Some traditional institutions are likely to experiment with decentralized mechanisms, introducing aspects of smart contract functionality to enhance client service and reduce costs [16]. - Progress in identity technology may widen the scope for disintermediation in banking functions, despite KYC and AML requirements limiting peer-to-peer transactions [17]. Group 5: Agentic Payments - Machine-to-machine payments are emerging, with stablecoins playing a crucial role in their evolution as digital money that can be programmatically distributed [18]. - While banks may not directly engage in this area, fintechs are expected to provide the necessary services for businesses adopting AI and robotics, pushing traditional banks to innovate [19][20].

Group 1: Bitcoin Market Overview - Bitcoin started 2025 at $93,615.04, dropped to a low of $76,270.13 in April, and reached an all-time high of over $126,000 in early October, before retracing approximately 30% to around $90,000 due to aggressive selling and profit-taking by large holders [1][3][7] - The expected passage of the CLARITY Act in January 2026 is anticipated to create a regulatory framework for digital assets, boosting institutional investor confidence and paving the way for further investments [2][5] - Bitcoin is facing the threat of a crypto winter in 2026, with bearish analysts predicting prices could fall to $70,000 in the near term and potentially to $56,000 in the long term [3][4] Group 2: Institutional Demand and ETF Inflows - Institutional demand is expected to recover, with BlackRock ranking iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) among its top three investment themes for 2025, attracting around $25 billion in net inflows this year [5] - Net inflows in crypto ETFs are projected to exceed $50 billion in 2026, driven by the launch of over 100 crypto-linked products following the approval of generic listing standards by the U.S. SEC [5] Group 3: Company-Specific Insights - Robinhood Markets (HOOD) is benefiting from higher transaction revenues due to growing retail market participation and is expected to continue its growth through strategic acquisitions and product expansion [6] - Klarna Group Plc (KLAR) reported a 32% year-over-year increase in active consumers to 114 million and expanded its cryptocurrency footprint with partnerships, positioning it for growth [9] - SoFi Technologies (SOFI) launched SoFiUSD, a fully reserved U.S. dollar stablecoin, and became the first nationally chartered bank in the U.S. to offer crypto services for retail customers [11] - CME Group (CME) experienced record volume growth, with a trading record of 340,000 contracts per day in Q3 2025, and plans to offer 24/7 trading of cryptocurrency futures and options starting early 2026 [13]

Industry Overview - Cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, and stablecoins operate on blockchain networks, which provide secure and transparent recordkeeping, supporting growing adoption and investor confidence globally [1] - Recent digital asset markets have experienced sharp corrections and sideways trading, with Bitcoin facing bearish sentiment due to macroeconomic challenges and tighter liquidity conditions [2] - Long-term expectations for cryptocurrencies remain bullish, driven by a favorable regulatory environment and increasing institutional acceptance [3] Regulatory Developments - The GENIUS Act establishes a legislative foundation for stablecoins, benefiting companies like Circle Internet Group that offers USDC [3] - The SEC's Spring 2025 Regulatory Agenda introduces potential rules for trading crypto assets, which could positively impact digital asset providers [4] - Nasdaq's proposal to allow trading of tokenized equity securities on its platform indicates a shift towards integrating blockchain technology in traditional finance [4] Company Highlights - Robinhood is experiencing increased transaction revenues due to growing retail market participation and strategic acquisitions, enhancing its product offerings [6] - The launch of Cortex, an AI assistant, and new banking features are expanding Robinhood's personal finance services [7] - Robinhood's acquisition of a 90% stake in MIAX Derivatives Exchange and plans to enter the Indonesian market signify its aggressive expansion strategy [8] Financial Performance - Figure Technology Solutions reported a 70% increase in total consumer loan marketplace volume to $2.5 billion in Q3 2025, driven by its expanding partner network [11] - The company has originated over $18 billion in loans on the Provenance blockchain, highlighting its significant market presence [11] - Circle Internet Group's USDC stablecoin circulation rose to $77.2 billion, reflecting strong demand and an expanding partner base [12] Technological Advancements - Figure Technology Solutions' blockchain-native public equity security allows for direct holding and trading, enhancing efficiency and transparency in transactions [9] - Circle's Cross-Chain Transfer Protocol facilitates efficient movement of digital dollars across blockchain networks, attracting major partners and enhancing USDC's utility [13]

Core Insights - SoFi Technologies has launched its first stablecoin, SoFiUSD, marking a significant step in its blockchain strategy and crypto expansion [1][2] - The company is leveraging its status as a regulated national bank to address inefficiencies in payment flows and liquidity movement, rather than for speculative purposes [2] - The market has responded positively to this development, viewing it as an extension of SoFi's fee-based and technology-driven business model [2] Company Overview - SoFi Technologies is a digital financial services company based in San Francisco, California, offering a comprehensive ecosystem that includes lending, banking, investing, credit cards, and financial planning [3] - The company holds a national banking charter, providing regulatory advantages over fintech competitors, and has a market capitalization of $32 billion, categorizing it as a large-cap fintech firm [3] Stock Performance - SOFI stock has experienced volatility over the past year, with a trading range between $8.60 and $32.73, currently trading around $27, outperforming the overall market in the last 12 months [4] - Despite strong appreciation, the stock has not yet reached its recent peak [4] Valuation Metrics - SoFi Technologies exhibits high valuation multiples, with trailing and forward P/E ratios of 84x and 68x, respectively, indicating market expectations for earnings growth [5] - The price-to-sales (P/S) ratio stands at 11.4x, reflecting a premium compared to traditional banks, though it is comparable to other infrastructure-driven fintech companies [5]

Core Insights - SoFi Technologies Inc. launched its stablecoin, SoFiUSD, on December 18, leading to a 4% increase in its stock price, closing at $26.29, indicating strong market interest in the federally chartered bank's digital currency initiative [1][21] - The launch signifies a shift where traditional financial institutions are actively building connections with blockchain technology rather than being influenced by external crypto entities [2] Company Overview - SoFiUSD is a fully reserved, dollar-pegged stablecoin backed 1:1 by cash in SoFi Bank's Federal Reserve account, distinguishing it from many existing stablecoins [3] - As the first national bank to issue a stablecoin on a public blockchain, SoFi positions itself as an infrastructure provider for other financial institutions, rather than just a consumer fintech company [4] - The stablecoin is regulated and FDIC-insured, addressing credit and liquidity risks associated with other stablecoins like Tether and USD Coin [5] Business Model - SoFi aims to provide SoFiUSD as a white-label solution for banks and fintechs, allowing them to integrate it into their payment systems, thus positioning it as essential infrastructure rather than a consumer product [6] - The stablecoin offers potential yield to holders, which is a competitive advantage over USDT and USDC, as SoFi plans to share returns generated from reserves held at the Federal Reserve [10] Market Context - The stablecoin market has a total capitalization of approximately $309 billion, with Tether and USD Coin dominating 85% of the market share [7] - New entrants like PayPal and Ripple are beginning to challenge the existing duopoly, indicating a shifting competitive landscape [8] Institutional Adoption - Major banks are exploring blockchain-based payment solutions, with regulatory developments like the GENIUS Act providing clearer guidelines for stablecoin operations [11][12] - The stablecoin market is projected to handle $27.6 trillion in transactions by 2024, highlighting the urgency for traditional institutions to engage with blockchain technology [13] Strategic Implications - SoFi's choice to launch on Ethereum leverages its established infrastructure and liquidity, with plans for cross-chain expansion to meet diverse institutional needs [16][17] - The white-label capability allows other financial institutions to issue their own stablecoins using SoFi's framework, potentially creating a network effect that enhances liquidity across multiple issuers [18][19] Future Outlook - The success of SoFiUSD will depend on its ability to secure institutional partnerships and expand beyond internal use cases [20][23] - The stablecoin launch reflects a broader trend of traditional finance integrating with blockchain, potentially reshaping the future of financial infrastructure [25][27] - If successful, SoFi's model may prompt other banks to follow suit, further blurring the lines between traditional finance and crypto finance [26][28]

Group 1 - SoFi Technologies (SOFI.US) has seen a stock price increase of 4.04% yesterday and a further rise of 1.26% in pre-market trading today, reaching $26.62 [1] - The company has officially entered the stablecoin market by launching SoFiUSD, a stablecoin fully backed by US dollar reserves, which accelerates its expansion in the digital assets and payment infrastructure sector [1] Group 2 - The stock closed at $26.29 with a trading volume of 45.16 million shares and a market capitalization of $33.137 billion [1] - The stock has a 52-week high of $32.73 and a low of $8.60, indicating significant volatility in its price [1] - The company has a price-to-earnings ratio of 67.41 and a price-to-book ratio of 3.774, reflecting its valuation metrics [1]