Flash | 07 Jan 2026 03:59:11 ET │ 12 pages China Solar Power Solar Product Prices Largely Steady This Week amid Soft Demand; We Assume PRC Solar Installations to -24% YoY in 2026E CITI'S TAKE Weekly solar product prices have increased 1-2% wow for upstream polysilicon materials and downstream solar modules this week, likely supported by anti-involution measures, while prices declined 1% for solar cells. PRC annual module output was -1.2% yoy to 563.2GW in 2025, according to SMM, affected by the absence of y ...

29 December 2025 | 11:03AM CST Equity Research CHINA SOLAR: TRACKING PROFITABILITY INFLECTION Dec-25: Increasingly wait-and-see stance with a new round of price hike proposed Our China Solar Profitability Tracker follows monthly supply/demand and inventory dynamics by sub-sector, and the spot prices/input costs implied cash GP & EBITDA margin trends for companies under our coverage. Key highlights in Dec MTD: Goldman Sachs does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a re ...

Summary of China Renewable Energy Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the **China Renewable Energy** sector, specifically the solar energy market in China. Key Points Solar Capacity Forecasts - The forecast for **PRC solar installation** in 2025 has been slightly raised to **290GW** from **280GW** based on ongoing projects, while the forecast for **2026** has been lowered to **220GW**, representing a **24% year-over-year decline** from **250GW** [1][2] - Major Independent Power Producers (IPPs) like **China Huaneng Group** and **National Energy Investment Group** are cautious about solar capacity additions during the **15th 5-year period (2026-2030)** due to profitability issues from recent projects [1] Profitability Concerns - Recent solar projects have been less profitable due to **tariff cuts** and high **depreciation expenses** from installations made in **2022-2023** when module prices were elevated [1][2] - The average on-grid tariff has decreased significantly, impacting the financial viability of new installations [2] Market Dynamics - The solar sector is noted for its **cooperative attitude** among enterprises, which is seen as a positive aspect amidst market challenges [1] - There is a potential negative impact on **Energy Storage System (ESS)** demand due to the anticipated reduction in solar installations in **2026** [2] Module Pricing and Production - **China's solar module export value** decreased by **16.8% year-over-year** to **US$21,873 million** in the first 11 months of 2025, with a slight recovery in November showing an **18% year-over-year increase** [3] - The **module production volume** is expected to decline further, with a projected drop of **10.9% year-over-year** in December due to a lack of domestic installation rush [6] Inverter Market - **China's inverter export value** increased by **26% year-over-year** in November, with significant demand from regions like **Oceania** and **Europe** [7] Company-Specific Insights Preferred Companies - The report expresses a preference for companies involved in **Energy Storage Systems (ESS)** and **polysilicon production**, specifically naming **Sungrow**, **Deye**, **Tongwei**, and **GCL** as favorable investment opportunities [1] Valuation and Risks - **Ginlong Technologies** has a target price of **Rmb55.00** per share based on a DCF valuation, with a WACC of **10.1%** [19] - **Ningbo Deye Technology** has a target price of **Rmb102.0** per share, with a WACC of **8.4%** [21] - **Sungrow Power Supply** has a target price of **Rmb240.00**, with a WACC of **7.0%** [23] - **Tongwei** has a target price of **Rmb30.00** per share, with a WACC of **9.2%** [25] Risks - Key risks for these companies include lower-than-expected solar installations, increased competition, and potential trade tariffs against Chinese products [20][22][24][26] Conclusion - The solar energy market in China is facing challenges with profitability and installation forecasts, but there are still opportunities in specific segments like ESS and polysilicon production. The cautious outlook from major IPPs indicates a need for strategic investment in the sector.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: Clean Technology - Solar - **Outlook for 2026**: Positive growth trajectory for utility-scale solar driven by strong demand trends in the US and a favorable policy environment [1][2][3] Core Themes and Arguments 1. **Utility-Scale Growth**: - Utility-scale solar expected to grow at approximately 3% year-over-year in 2026, with revenue growth across coverage averaging around 15% due to price increases and expanded total addressable market (TAM) [2][19] - Companies like FSLR and NXT are well-positioned for solid growth due to strong domestic market share [1][8] 2. **Residential Market Reset**: - Anticipation of a 20% decline in residential installations in 2026 following the expiration of the 25D tax credit at the end of 2025 [3][39] - Shift in the residential market towards third-party ownership (TPO) models as cash/loan sales decline [19][39] 3. **Data Center Demand**: - Data centers are becoming a significant driver of solar demand, accounting for approximately 54% of new power generation in 2025 [3][20] - Increased power demand from data centers is expected to support solar growth, with projections of a 2.6% CAGR in US power demand through 2030 [20][50] 4. **Policy Environment**: - A cleaner policy backdrop entering 2026 with limited headwinds expected, following a year of uncertainty [4][21] - Monitoring of upcoming midterm elections as a potential catalyst for renewable energy policies [21][71] 5. **Valuation Insights**: - Solar equities have rebounded from early 2025 lows but remain undervalued compared to historical levels and other power-related equities [4][22] - Average upside potential of approximately 28% for Buy-rated names, with specific focus on utility-scale companies [11][77] Important but Overlooked Content - **Company-Specific Insights**: - FSLR is expected to see a bookings inflection and higher average selling prices (ASPs) throughout the year [8][12] - FLNC is positioned as a leader in battery storage with significant growth potential driven by data center demand [9][51] - ENPH's transition from a trough in Q1 2026 is being closely monitored for potential growth drivers [12][84] - **Market Dynamics**: - The residential solar market is experiencing a significant shift, with expectations of a drastic quarter-over-quarter decline in installations from Q4 2025 to Q1 2026 [39] - European residential markets remain weak, with companies like Otovo reporting a 25% revenue decline year-to-date [39] - **Investor Sentiment**: - Institutional ownership in the solar sector has decreased, leading to increased short interest, which is at its highest level in five years [25][31] - **Supply Chain Considerations**: - Despite efforts to reduce overcapacity in the solar supply chain, only modest impacts have been observed, with polysilicon prices increasing by 35%-40% year-to-date [91] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the positive outlook for utility-scale solar, the challenges in the residential market, and the significant role of data centers in driving demand.

Core Viewpoint - Masdar, a state-owned company and West Asia's largest renewable energy firm, has withdrawn from a consortium that aimed to take ReNew Energy Global private, leading to a significant drop in ReNew's stock price and ending the proposed transaction [1][2][4]. Company Developments - The consortium revised its offer to $8.15 per share, a 15.3% increase from the initial bid of $7.07 per share made in December 2024, valuing ReNew at $2.8 billion as of the end of October [1][7]. - Following Masdar's exit, ReNew's market capitalization fell to $2.02 billion, reflecting a loss of over 30% since its listing in 2021 [2][1]. - ReNew's shares have consistently traded below their peak of approximately $12 in February 2021, indicating a potential opportunity for share buybacks as the Indian market is expected to grow [6][5]. Financial Position - ReNew has cash and cash equivalents amounting to $1 billion, with no immediate need to raise capital, according to the company's CFO [5]. - The proposed acquisition would have resulted in an $896 million payout to ReNew's shareholders, highlighting the perceived growth potential of the company [7]. Strategic Plans - ReNew's portfolio includes approximately 18.5 GW of clean energy projects, with ongoing construction of solar module and cell manufacturing facilities [10][16]. - The company plans to invest Rs 82,000 crore in Andhra Pradesh, focusing on high technology areas such as solar ingot and wafer manufacturing, as well as green hydrogen projects [11][16]. Market Context - The withdrawal of Masdar coincides with a broader geopolitical shift among Gulf Cooperation Council countries, which are increasingly investing in the US and artificial intelligence sectors [13][16]. - Analysts suggest that Masdar's decision may have been influenced by prolonged negotiations and the insistence of ReNew's management on retaining significant management rights [8][4].

Summary of China Solar Profitability Tracker - November 2025 Industry Overview - The report focuses on the solar industry in China, particularly the dynamics of upstream and downstream segments, including pricing trends and profitability metrics for various solar components [1][3][5]. Key Highlights Pricing and Profitability Trends - Upstream wafer and cell prices declined by an average of 5% in November compared to October, attributed to a 70% increase in inventory in the solar cell segment amid weaker downstream demand [3][5]. - The production across the solar value chain is expected to decline by an average of 6% month-over-month in November, with the poly segment experiencing a significant drop of 16% [3][5]. - Despite a lower production-to-demand ratio of 110% in November (down from 116% in October), producer-side inventory days are projected to increase to 38 days from 33 days [8][10]. Export and Demand Dynamics - Cell and module export volumes decreased by 1% and 24% month-over-month, respectively, primarily due to reduced restocking activities as the overseas peak demand season concludes [3][5]. - The shift in procurement demand from India to Southeast Asia has also impacted export volumes [3]. Market Valuation and Risks - The market is currently pricing in solar component prices at Rmb57/kg for poly, Rmb1.8/pc for wafers, Rmb0.66/w for cells, and Rmb13/sqm for glass, indicating a potential downside risk of 33% for the coverage [3][13]. - The ongoing anti-involution campaign and restrictions on below-cost pricing are expected to only mildly improve the pricing outlook for poly, with downstream players likely needing to reduce selling prices to maintain market share [4]. Profitability Metrics - November's spot price implied cash profitability deteriorated in upstream segments while improving in downstream segments [5][7]. - The average cash gross profit margin (GPM) for Tier 1 poly is reported at 34%, with a decrease of 1 percentage point month-over-month [7]. Additional Insights - The report suggests a preference for investments in film, high-efficiency modules, and granular poly, while advising against investments in glass, rod poly, and certain wafer and equipment manufacturers [4]. - The analysis indicates that normalized profitability in the mid-to-long run is expected to remain low unless there is a reduction in Tier 1 capacity [4]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the November 2025 China Solar Profitability Tracker, highlighting the current challenges and dynamics within the solar industry.

Summary of China Renewable Energy Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the **China Renewable Energy** sector, particularly the solar energy market, including polysilicon, wafers, solar cells, modules, and solar glass products [1][2][3][4][5][6]. Key Points and Arguments Price Trends - **Polysilicon Prices**: Average market prices for n-type grade rod-type polysilicon decreased by -0.1% week-over-week (wow) to Rmb51.9/kg, while granular silicon prices remained unchanged at Rmb50.5/kg [2]. - **Wafer Prices**: Prices for n-type wafers fell by -2.3% wow to Rmb1.26/W for 182mm products and -1.8% wow to Rmb1.68/W for 210mm products due to inventory pressure [3]. - **Solar Cell Prices**: Average prices for TOPCon solar cells decreased by -2.6% wow to Rmb0.30/W [3]. - **Module Prices**: Average market prices for TOPCon modules increased slightly by 0.2% wow to Rmb0.67/W for utility-scale projects, but remained stable for distributed projects [4][5]. - **Solar Glass Prices**: Prices for solar glass products decreased by -1.5% wow to Rmb12.8/m2 for 2.0mm and -1.3% wow to Rmb19.8/m2 for 3.2mm products [6]. Inventory and Demand - **Inventory Levels**: Polysilicon inventory at producer plants rose by +3.1% wow to 267k tonnes, while wafer inventory increased by 5.3% wow to 18.4GW [2][3]. - **Demand Decline**: Domestic solar installation demand in China dropped by -50.9% year-over-year (yoy) to 28.7GW in 3Q25, while module export volume grew by +43.6% yoy to 78.8GW in the same period [1][5]. - **Future Projections**: Monthly polysilicon output is expected to decline by 14% month-over-month (mom) to 120k tonnes in November, with an annual output forecasted to drop by 27.8% yoy to 1,330k tonnes in 2025 [2]. Market Dynamics - **Anti-Involution Policies**: The anticipated increase in module prices is driven by anti-involution policies in China's solar industry and the potential removal of VAT rebates for module exports by the end of 2025 [1][5]. - **Production Adjustments**: Certain polysilicon plants in Southwest China, including Tongwei's facilities, suspended production due to weakened demand and increased electricity prices [2]. Investment Preferences - **Preferred Companies**: The report favors inverter manufacturers such as **Sungrow** and **Deye**, which are expected to benefit from the growth in energy storage systems. Polysilicon producers are also favored due to higher average selling prices (ASP) and potential capacity consolidation [1]. Additional Important Information - **Risks**: Key risks for companies like Deye and Sungrow include lower-than-expected demand for energy storage, increased price competition, and potential trade tariffs against Chinese products in overseas markets [20][22]. - **Valuation Models**: Target prices for companies are based on discounted cash flow (DCF) models, with specific assumptions regarding growth rates and weighted average cost of capital (WACC) [19][21][23]. This summary encapsulates the essential insights from the conference call, highlighting the current state and future outlook of the China Renewable Energy sector, particularly in solar energy.

Summary of the Conference Call on China's Solar Industry Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the **China solar industry**, particularly the **polysilicon sector** and its efforts to combat "involution" [1][2]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Positive Signs in Polysilicon Industry**: - Recent announcements from JA Solar and comments from industry leaders indicate a collective effort to address market challenges and improve self-discipline within the sector [1]. - The Deputy Secretary of the China Photovoltaic Industry Association expressed confidence in the industry's ability to implement anti-involution measures successfully [1]. 2. **Expectations for Pricing and Capacity**: - The anti-involution initiative is expected to succeed, leading to meaningful exits of polysilicon capacity, which will improve the supply-demand balance and alleviate overcapacity issues [2]. - Enhanced self-discipline is anticipated to sustain higher utilization rates, drive price recovery, and improve profitability for polysilicon firms in the medium term [2]. 3. **Current Market Conditions**: - Polysilicon prices remained stable at **CNY 50-52/kg** as of the week ending November 12, while wafer prices dropped by **3.0-3.7%** due to reduced demand from downstream solar cells [3]. - Solar cell prices were weak at **CNY 0.28-0.30/W**, attributed to sluggish shipments and high inventory levels [3]. 4. **Production Forecasts**: - Monthly production of polysilicon is expected to drop by approximately **20,000 tonnes** month-on-month to around **120,000 tonnes** in November, driven by lower utilization rates in Southwestern China [4]. - Solar wafer production is projected to contract by **5%** month-on-month to about **57GW**, while solar cell production is expected to decrease by **2%** month-on-month to **57GW** [4]. 5. **Price Trends**: - The price trends for various components of the solar supply chain indicate stability in polysilicon and module prices, while wafer and cell prices are experiencing downward pressure [6][12]. Additional Important Information - The industry is showing a heightened sensitivity to market chatter, which could disrupt market stability, indicating a cautious approach among producers [1]. - The overall sentiment is cautiously optimistic, with expectations of a recovery in pricing and profitability in the medium term, despite short-term challenges such as high inventories and seasonal demand weakness [2][3]. This summary encapsulates the key insights from the conference call regarding the current state and future outlook of the solar industry in China, particularly focusing on polysilicon and its market dynamics.

Summary of China Solar Profitability Tracker Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the solar industry in China, particularly the dynamics of upstream and downstream pricing, inventory levels, and profitability trends for companies in the sector [1][2]. Key Highlights - **Upstream Price Dynamics**: - Upstream price hikes paused in October, contrasting with a 5% month-over-month increase in September. This pause is attributed to weaker downstream price acceptance, exacerbated by a significant rise in silver paste prices, which increased by 18% month-to-date and constitutes 30%-40% of non-silicon cell processing costs [6][7]. - **Inventory Levels**: - Total poly inventory rose by 7% month-over-month to 275GW in October, with approximately 150GW at poly factory sites, 110GW at wafer factory sites, and 15GW through future contracts [6]. - Glass producer-side inventory days surged by 63% compared to the end of September, reaching 25 days in October, indicating muted shipment activity [6]. - **Production Estimates**: - Monthly poly production is expected to decline by 6% in November and December compared to October, primarily due to capacity suspensions in Central Western China [6]. - New solar glass capacity continues to increase, with one line of 1.2k tons/day launched and multiple new lines scheduled for the near future [6]. - **Export Volumes**: - Cell and module export volumes decreased by 10% and 4% month-over-month, respectively, to 11GW and 28GW. This decline is mainly due to reduced restocking activities as the overseas peak demand season in Europe and the Middle East concludes [6]. Profitability Insights - **Valuation Metrics**: - The market is currently pricing in 2026 prices for poly, wafer, module, and glass at Rmb58/kg, Rmb1.8/pc, Rmb0.66/w, and Rmb13/sqm, respectively. This contrasts with Goldman Sachs' estimates of Rmb42/kg, Rmb1.3/pc, Rmb0.67/w, and Rmb10/sqm, indicating an average downside risk of 34% for the covered companies [3][16]. - **Cash Profitability Trends**: - Spot price implied cash profitability remained largely flat in the upstream sector while deteriorating in the downstream sector [10]. - The average cash gross profit margin (GPM) for poly-tier 1 was reported at 37%, with a notable decrease in margins for cell and module segments [10]. Sector Outlook - The ongoing anti-involution campaign and newly imposed restrictions on below-cost pricing are expected to only mildly improve the pricing outlook for poly. Downstream players may still need to reduce selling prices to gain market share amid weak demand [7]. - The long-term profitability outlook remains low without a reduction in Tier 1 capacity [7]. Investment Preferences - The analysis indicates a preference for specific segments within the solar value chain: - **Buy Recommendations**: Film (Hangzhou First), High-efficiency Module (Longi) - **Neutral Recommendations**: Granular Poly (GCL Tech) - **Sell Recommendations**: Glass (Flat A/H, Xinyi Solar), Rod Poly (Daqo ADR/A, Tongwei), Wafer (TZE), and Equipment (Shenzhen S.C. and Maxwell) [7]. Additional Insights - The production-to-demand ratio for the sub-sector is projected to increase to 116% in October from 113% in September, indicating a potential oversupply situation [11]. - Producer-side inventory days are likely to rise to 34 days in October from 30 days in September, further highlighting inventory concerns [13]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and data points from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and outlook of the solar industry in China.

Summary of China Renewable Energy Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the **China Renewable Energy** sector, particularly the solar energy market, including solar glass, polysilicon, wafers, solar cells, and modules. Key Points and Arguments Policy Developments - The **Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT)** and other Chinese administrations issued a new policy titled "Work Plan for Stabilizing Growth in the Building Materials Industry (2025-2026)" aimed at promoting low carbon and digitalization in the construction materials industry. This policy is expected to facilitate the consolidation of solar glass production by shifting focus from 'project management' to 'planning oriented', which may help eliminate inefficient production capacity [1][1][1]. Price Trends - **Midstream solar product prices** (wafer, solar cells, and solar glass) increased by **1-3% week-over-week (wow)**, while upstream polysilicon and downstream solar module prices remained stable [1][1][1]. - **Polysilicon prices** saw a slight increase of **0.2% wow**, averaging **Rmb52.3/kg** for n-type grade rod-type polysilicon, while granular silicon prices remained unchanged at **Rmb49.5/kg**. Polysilicon inventory at producer plants decreased by **6.8% wow** to **204k tonnes** [2][2][2]. - **Wafer prices** for n-type products rose by **1.5% wow** to **Rmb1.35/W** for 182mm products and **1.2% wow** to **Rmb1.70/W** for 210mm products. Total wafer inventory increased by **1.9% wow** to **16.9GW** [3][3][3]. - **Solar cell prices** increased by **2.5% wow** to **Rmb0.32/W** for TOPCon products, with expected output rising by **1.5% wow** to **60.0GW** in September [3][3][3]. - **Module prices** experienced a slight decline, with average prices for TOPCon modules decreasing by **0.6% wow** to **Rmb0.66/W** for utility-scale projects [4][4][4]. Demand and Production Insights - **Solar installation demand** in China remains muted due to tariff uncertainties, but module export demand has grown significantly, with a **41.9% year-over-year (yoy)** increase in module export volume to **26.6GW** in August [6][6][6]. - Monthly module output is expected to rise by **2.2% month-over-month (mom)** and **2.4% yoy** to **50.3GW** in September [6][6][6]. - **Solar glass prices** increased by **1.1% wow** to **Rmb13.5/m2** for 2.0mm products, while the inventory period decreased by **6.8% wow** to **15.0 days** [7][7][7]. Company Recommendations - The report expresses a favorable outlook on companies such as **Sungrow** and **Deye**, which are expected to benefit from the growing demand for energy storage systems. Additionally, it recommends buying shares in upstream polysilicon makers like **GCL**, **Tongwei**, **Daqo**, and **TBEA** due to anticipated industry consolidation driven by anti-involution measures [1][1][1]. Additional Important Information - The report highlights the potential for increased capacity utilization among module companies to produce more with low-cost materials amid rising upstream solar product prices [6][6][6]. - The operational daily solar glass melting capacity remained unchanged at **89,290 tonnes**, but some companies plan to increase capacity due to improved profitability [7][7][7]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and developments discussed during the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future outlook of the China Renewable Energy sector.