Investment Strategy - Investing in stocks for a long period, such as 30 years, can lead to significant wealth accumulation through compounding returns [1] - A well-defined strategy and commitment to endure market fluctuations are essential for investors [1][2] - Understanding personal risk tolerance and spreading investments across various asset classes and sectors is crucial for capitalizing on diverse growth opportunities [2] Healthcare Industry Opportunities - The healthcare industry offers substantial opportunities for notable portfolio returns over decades [3] - Vertex Pharmaceuticals and DexCom are highlighted as two companies with strong long-term growth potential in the healthcare sector [3] Vertex Pharmaceuticals - Vertex Pharmaceuticals holds a near monopoly in the cystic fibrosis drug market, generating significant revenue and strong free cash flow [4] - The company’s patents for key cystic fibrosis drugs extend into the late 2030s, providing a stable revenue foundation [4] - Vertex is expanding its portfolio beyond cystic fibrosis into other serious diseases, including a gene-editing therapy for sickle cell disease and a non-opioid pain management solution [5][6] - Vertex reported a total revenue of $3.08 billion for Q3 2025, an 11% year-over-year increase, with a net income of $1.1 billion [10] DexCom - DexCom is the leading manufacturer of continuous glucose monitoring devices, serving a growing global population with diabetes [11] - The company has a significant market share in the U.S. CGM market but has vast untapped opportunities, as less than 1% of Type 1 diabetics currently use CGM technology [12] - DexCom's revenue grew by 22% in Q3, with U.S. revenue increasing by 21% year-over-year and international revenue rising by 22% [16]

Core Insights - DexCom, Inc. (DXCM) is positioned for growth in the continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) market, with a strong third-quarter performance and favorable coverage decisions expected to drive further growth, despite facing stiff competition [1][2] Company Overview - DexCom has a market capitalization of $21.45 billion and projects a 22.5% growth rate over the next five years, indicating strong future performance [2] - The company has surpassed earnings estimates in two of the last four quarters, with an average surprise of 0.17% [2] CGM Market Potential - The diabetes market presents significant potential, with over 130 million people in the U.S. and more than 400 million globally affected by diabetes, driving demand for CGM devices [3] - The global CGM device market is expected to grow at a CAGR of nearly 10%, reaching $14 billion by 2032 from over $6 billion currently [4] Product Ecosystem and Innovation - DexCom generates nearly 90% of its revenue from disposable CGM sensors, with strong demand driven by product performance and user experience [6] - The G7 and One+ products are gaining traction due to broader insurance coverage and growing physician support, particularly among Type 2 diabetes patients [6] - DexCom's software ecosystem, including features like AI-powered insights, is enhancing patient engagement and supporting reimbursement efforts [7] Recent Developments - The launch of Stelo in 2024 has already generated over $100 million in its first year, indicating strong market acceptance [8] - DexCom is expanding global reimbursement for its CGM sensors, which is expected to drive broader adoption, especially among Type 2 diabetes patients [9] International Expansion - DexCom has made significant progress in international markets, securing reimbursements in countries like France, Canada, and Japan, which is expected to improve affordability and patient access [11] Financial Performance - DexCom reported strong third-quarter results with double-digit top-line growth and raised full-year guidance, reflecting successful execution in expanding access to CGM [12] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2025 earnings per share has increased to $2.07, with fourth-quarter revenue expected to improve by 11.7% year over year [15]

Core Insights - DexCom, Inc. (DXCM) reported third-quarter 2025 adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of 61 cents, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 57 cents by 7%, and up from 45 cents in the prior-year quarter [1] - Total revenues increased by 21.6% year-over-year to $1.21 billion, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 2.7%, driven by strong demand and recent access wins, particularly in type 2 diabetes [2][7] - Despite positive results, DXCM shares fell nearly 12.8% in after-hours trading on October 30, with a year-to-date decline of 12.3% compared to a 1.6% decline in the industry [3] Revenue Details - Sensor and other revenues, which account for 97% of total revenues, rose by 23% year-over-year to $1.18 billion, while hardware revenues decreased by 19% to $34.2 million [4] - U.S. revenues, making up 70% of total revenues, increased by 21% year-over-year to $851.9 million, and international revenues improved by 22% to $316.1 million [5] Margin and Operating Income - Adjusted gross profit reached $741.3 million, a 23.2% increase from the prior-year quarter, with an adjusted gross margin of 61.3%, down 160 basis points year-over-year [8] - Total adjusted operating income was $272.9 million, up 28.7% from the previous year, with an adjusted operating margin of 22.6%, an increase of 130 basis points year-over-year [9] Financial Position - At the end of the third quarter, DexCom had cash, cash equivalents, and marketable securities totaling $3.32 billion, up from $2.93 billion in the second quarter of 2025, with total assets amounting to $7.5 billion [10] 2025 Guidance - DexCom raised its revenue guidance for 2025 to a range of $4.63-$4.65 billion, implying a 15% year-over-year growth, with an expected adjusted gross margin of approximately 61% and an adjusted operating margin of 20-21% [11] Market Position and Growth Drivers - The company is experiencing strong momentum in the U.S. market, particularly among the type 2 diabetes population, supported by broader primary-care reach and expanding commercial coverage [13] - International growth has accelerated, with notable performance in France and Canada due to recent reimbursement wins [13] - DexCom is preparing for the rollout of its 15-day G7 sensor and enhancing its software ecosystem, which includes a new Smart Basal titration module [14] Customer Experience and Market Expansion - The company is focusing on improving customer experience through the My DexCom Account portal and enhancing product features, which are expected to boost user satisfaction [17] - With broad pharmacy benefit manager (PBM) coverage extending to approximately six million non-insulin type-2 U.S. lives, DexCom aims to unlock a market of over 25 million Americans [18]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported worldwide revenue of $1.21 billion for Q3 2025, a 22% increase compared to $994 million in Q3 2024, with organic revenue growth of 20% [20] - U.S. revenue reached $852 million, up 21% from $702 million in Q3 2024, driven by growth in Type 2 diabetes contributions [20][21] - International revenue grew 22% to $357.4 million, with organic growth of 18%, marking the third consecutive quarter of accelerating international growth [21] - Gross profit was $741.3 million, representing 61.3% of revenue, down from 63.0% in Q3 2024, impacted by higher scrap rates [22][24] - Operating income was $272.9 million, or 22.6% of revenue, compared to $212.0 million, or 21.3% in Q3 2024 [24] - Net income for Q3 was $242.5 million, or $0.61 per share, the highest quarterly earnings per share in the company's history [24] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company continues to see strong performance in Type 2 diabetes, with new customer starts increasingly coming from this population due to expanded coverage [8][21] - The introduction of Dexcom Smart Basal aims to improve basal insulin management for Type 2 customers, enhancing the user experience [11][12] - Stelo surpassed $100 million in revenue within its first year, indicating strong market acceptance and potential for further growth [13][14] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company has established coverage for nearly 6 million Type 2 non-insulin lives in the U.S., representing about half of the Type 2 NIT commercial population [9] - France and Canada are highlighted as fast-growing markets, with significant new coverage contributing to growth [21] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on expanding coverage for Type 2 diabetes patients and enhancing product personalization through new features [10][11] - The upcoming launch of the G7 15-day system is expected to enhance the company's market position, with finalized contracts with major payers [15][52] - The company is committed to improving customer experience through digital innovations like My Dexcom Account [16] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the growth potential driven by expanding CGM access and the increasing body of evidence supporting CGM use among Type 2 patients [9][10] - The company anticipates a strong performance in Q4 and 2026, with expectations for record new patient starts [77] - Management acknowledged challenges in Q3 but emphasized improvements in product quality and customer satisfaction [34][35] Other Important Information - The company raised its revenue guidance for 2025 to a range of $4.630 billion to $4.650 billion, reflecting approximately 15% growth for the year [25] - Non-GAAP gross profit margin guidance was lowered to approximately 61% due to scrap dynamics [25] Q&A Session Summary Question: Insights on 2026 growth estimates - Management refrained from providing specific guidance for 2026 but indicated a double-digit growth potential based on current coverage and access [30][31] Question: G7 performance and impact of quality issues - Management confirmed that quality issues have been resolved, and while there was a slight impact on new starts in Q3, they expect improvements moving forward [34][35] Question: Growth in new patient segments - Management noted strong performance across all Type 2 markets, including intensive and non-insulin users, and emphasized ongoing efforts to drive growth [40][41] Question: Expanded coverage potential in 2026 - Management stated that the base case for guidance includes current coverage, with potential for expanded coverage to be recognized as it materializes [44][45] Question: Revenue contribution from the 15-day sensor - Management indicated that the 15-day sensor will have a nominal contribution in the current year but is expected to drive additional patient uptake in 2026 [53][54] Question: Actions to ensure clear communication regarding product quality - Management is actively engaging with prescribers and users to communicate improvements and address concerns regarding product performance [58][59] Question: Gross margin impacts and future expectations - Management indicated that scrap and freight issues are expected to improve, leading to a return to more normalized margin rates in 2026 [62][72]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported worldwide revenue of $1.21 billion for Q3 2025, a 22% increase compared to $994 million in Q3 2024, with organic revenue growth of 20% [20][21] - U.S. revenue reached $852 million, up 21% from $702 million in the same quarter last year [20][21] - Gross profit was $741.3 million, representing 61.3% of revenue, down from 63.0% in Q3 2024 [22] - Operating income was $272.9 million, or 22.6% of revenue, compared to $212.0 million, or 21.3% in Q3 2024 [24] - Net income for Q3 was $242.5 million, or $0.61 per share, marking the highest quarterly earnings per share in the company's history [24] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company experienced strong growth in Type 2 diabetes segments, with new customer starts increasingly coming from this population due to expanded coverage [8][20] - The introduction of Dexcom Smart Basal aims to enhance the management of basal insulin for Type 2 customers, addressing their specific needs [11][12] - Stelo surpassed $100 million in revenue within its first year, indicating strong market acceptance and growth potential [13][14] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - International revenue grew 22% to $357.4 million, with organic growth of 18%, marking the third consecutive quarter of accelerating international growth [21] - France and Canada were highlighted as strong markets, with France showing consistent growth due to new coverage [21] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on expanding coverage for Type 2 diabetes patients, aiming to secure access for the entire population of over 25 million Americans [9][10] - The launch of the G7 15 Day system is anticipated to enhance the company's product offerings and market position [14][15] - The company is committed to improving customer experience through new digital platforms and ongoing software updates [16][18] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company's growth trajectory, emphasizing the importance of expanding access to CGM for Type 2 diabetes patients [8][9] - The company acknowledged challenges related to sensor deployment but indicated improvements have been made, leading to a positive outlook for Q4 and beyond [34][35] - Management expects to return to record levels of new patient starts in 2026, driven by existing coverage and potential new coverage opportunities [77] Other Important Information - The company raised its revenue guidance for 2025 to a range of $4.630 billion to $4.650 billion, reflecting approximately 15% growth for the year [25] - Operating expenses increased to $468.4 million in Q3 2025, up from $413.9 million in Q3 2024, as the company continues to invest in R&D [24] Q&A Session Summary Question: Insights on 2026 growth estimates - Management refrained from providing specific guidance for 2026 but indicated a positive outlook based on current coverage and access to CGM [30][31] Question: G7 performance and deployment issues - Management confirmed that deployment challenges have been addressed, and they expect improvements in new starts and prescribing patterns moving forward [34][35] Question: Growth in new patient segments - The company noted strong performance across all Type 2 markets, including intensive and non-insulin users, and is actively exploring marketing strategies to drive uptake [40][41] Question: Expanded coverage potential for 2026 - Management stated that the base case for guidance includes current coverage, with potential for expanded coverage being a positive but not guaranteed factor [44][45] Question: 15 Day sensor launch and revenue contribution - The company is excited about the upcoming broader launch of the 15 Day sensor, with expectations for it to contribute to revenue growth in 2026 [52][53] Question: Gross margin and scrap rate issues - Management indicated that scrap and freight issues have impacted margins but expect improvements as they transition back to more cost-efficient shipping methods [70][72]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported worldwide revenue of $1.21 billion for Q3 2025, a 22% increase compared to $994 million in Q3 2024, with organic revenue growth of 20% [17] - U.S. revenue totaled $852 million, up 21% from $702 million in Q3 2024, driven by growth in Type 2 diabetes contributions [17][18] - International revenue grew 22% to $357.4 million, with organic growth of 18%, marking the third consecutive quarter of accelerating international growth [18] - Gross profit was $741.3 million, representing 61.3% of revenue, down from 63.0% in Q3 2024, impacted by higher scrap rates [19][20] - Operating income was $272.9 million, or 22.6% of revenue, compared to $212.0 million, or 21.3% in Q3 2024 [22] - Net income reached $242.5 million, or $0.61 per share, the highest quarterly earnings per share in the company's history [22] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company continues to see strong performance in Type 2 diabetes, with new customer starts coming from the entire Type 2 population due to expanded coverage [5][6] - The Dexcom Smart Basal feature aims to improve basal insulin management for Type 2 customers, currently under FDA review [9] - Stelo surpassed $100 million in revenue within its first year, indicating strong market acceptance and potential for international expansion [10] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Coverage for nearly 6 million Type 2 non-insulin lives has been established, representing about half of the Type 2 NIT commercial population in the U.S. [6] - France and Canada are highlighted as fast-growing markets, with significant new coverage contributing to growth [18] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on expanding coverage for Type 2 diabetes patients and enhancing product personalization [8][10] - The launch of the G7 15-day system is anticipated to enhance the company's market position, with contracts finalized with major payers [11][12] - The company is committed to improving customer experience through digital innovations like My Dexcom Account [12] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the ongoing expansion of CGM access for Type 2 diabetes, viewing it as a matter of "when, not if" [6][7] - The company is optimistic about future growth opportunities, particularly in expanding access and improving product offerings [15][22] Other Important Information - The company raised its revenue guidance for 2025 to a range of $4.630 billion to $4.650 billion, reflecting approximately 15% growth for the year [23] - Operating expenses increased to $468.4 million in Q3 2025, compared to $413.9 million in Q3 2024, as the company continues to invest in R&D [21] Q&A Session Summary Question: Insights on 2026 growth estimates - Management refrained from providing specific guidance for 2026 but indicated a double-digit growth runway based on current coverage [27] Question: G7 performance and impact of quality issues - Management confirmed that quality issues have been resolved, and while there was a slight impact on new starts, they expect to return to record levels in Q4 [30][32] Question: Growth in new patients and market strategy - Growth is observed across all Type 2 markets, with ongoing adjustments in marketing strategies to capture new patient segments [35] Question: Expanded coverage potential in 2026 - The base case for guidance includes current coverage, with potential for expanded coverage not factored in [39][40] Question: Revenue contribution from the 15-day sensor - The broader launch of the 15-day sensor is expected soon, with nominal revenue contribution anticipated in the current year but significant potential in 2026 [46][47] Question: Gross margin and scrap rate impacts - Management indicated that scrap and freight issues are expected to improve, with a return to normalized margins anticipated in 2026 [56][67] Question: Type 2 user utilization rates - Utilization rates for Type 2 users are strong, with AID customers showing the highest utilization, followed by intensive insulin users [68] Question: Quality issues and new patient starts - Quality issues had a slight impact on Q3 starts, but management expects to return to record levels without needing expanded access [72]

Dexcom Dexcom earnings Q3 2025 nigbetes Nasdag Safe harbor statement This presentation contains "forward-looking statements" that are based on our management's beliefs and assumptions and on information available to management as of October 30, 2025. We intend for such forward-looking statements to be cavered by the sofe harlpor provisions for forward-looking statements contained in the U.S. Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Forward-looking statements include information conceening our possi ...

Core Viewpoint - DexCom, Inc. is expected to report strong third-quarter results, driven by operational momentum, patient growth, and improved access, with a raised full-year revenue outlook reflecting confidence in demand and reimbursement expansion [1][2][8] Operational Performance - The company enters Q3 with solid operational momentum, supported by continued patient growth and a strengthening global footprint [2][8] - Commercial execution is a focal point, with healthy uptake of the product portfolio, particularly G7 and Stelo, despite competitive pressures [3][8] - Improved channel operations and access expansion are likely to have contributed to stronger prescription trends and pharmacy channel throughput [4][6] U.S. Market Dynamics - Strong new patient additions and integration with over 100 health systems have supported smoother prescription workflows [4][5] - Coverage for Type 2 diabetes patients not on insulin has broadened, with access secured through a major PBM, potentially covering around six million lives [4][5] International Trends - The international business has maintained healthy growth, driven by expanding Type 2 access and market penetration in regions like Ontario, France, and Japan [7][10] - Management expects continued international contribution, supported by growing awareness among primary care providers and improving prescription visibility [9][10] Stelo and New Market Initiatives - Stelo is an emerging growth vector, with over 400,000 app downloads and partnerships enhancing user engagement [11][12] - While currently a small financial contributor, Stelo is expected to represent 2% to 3% of 2025 sales, with ongoing feature expansion likely to accelerate adoption [12] Financial Outlook and Margin Progress - The company raised its full-year 2025 revenue outlook to $4.60 to $4.625 billion, reflecting 14% to 15% growth [13] - Gross margin is projected at approximately 62%, with expectations for sequential improvement as freight costs ease and inventory levels normalize [13][14] Estimate Picture - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Q3 revenues is $1.18 billion, indicating an 18.4% improvement year-over-year, with EPS expected to increase by 26.7% to 57 cents [15] Long-Term Investment Visibility - Dexcom's long-term growth is supported by the expansion of the CGM category into Type 2 and pre-diabetes markets, with improving coverage and digital workflow integration [24][25] - Innovation remains central to the strategy, with advancements in product offerings and software enhancing usability and user engagement [25][26]

Core Viewpoint - Investing in companies that have underperformed but show potential for long-term recovery can yield above-average market returns, exemplified by DexCom and Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, whose shares are down 17% and 21% this year respectively due to company-specific challenges [1]. DexCom - DexCom specializes in continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) systems for diabetes patients, facing challenges such as worse-than-expected financial results and a faster-than-anticipated rebate eligibility impacting revenue [3][4]. - In Q2, DexCom's revenue increased by 15% year-over-year to $1.2 billion, with non-GAAP net earnings per share at $0.48, reflecting an 11.6% increase compared to the previous year, indicating a rebound in financial performance [4]. - The CGM market presents significant growth opportunities, with over 4.5 million insulin patients in the U.S. eligible for coverage but not yet using CGM, and the launch of Stelo as an over-the-counter option for non-insulin patients further expands market potential [6][7]. - DexCom benefits from a network effect due to its large installed base and integration with third-party devices, which could help mitigate tariff threats through a multipronged strategy [7][8]. Regeneron Pharmaceuticals - Regeneron is working to overcome a recent patent cliff, indicating potential for future growth and recovery in its stock performance [8].

Group 1: Company Overview - DexCom, Inc. is a leading provider of continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) devices, serving millions of individuals managing Type 1 and Type 2 diabetes, as well as those tracking glucose for wellness purposes [2] - Founded in 1999, DexCom pioneered accurate, real-time glucose monitoring, shifting the standard of care away from periodic finger pricks [2] - The company's competitive edge lies in product performance and integration across platforms, with devices like G6, G7, and Stelo offering seamless connectivity compared to competitors [2] Group 2: Business Model and Financial Performance - DexCom's business model is highly lucrative, with hardware representing only 5% of revenue and disposable sensors accounting for 95%, supported by industry-leading retention rates [3] - Despite its strong business model, the stock has underperformed over the past five years, reflecting a negative 20% total return due to growing competition and market pressures [3] - The company faces challenges from Abbott's low-cost FreeStyle Libre platform and Medtronic's investments in next-generation CGM, alongside potential reduced demand from Type 2 patients due to the adoption of GLP-1 drugs [3] Group 3: Market Opportunities - CGM penetration remains low in key populations, including over 100 million Type 2 diabetics and prediabetics in the U.S., with expanding insurance coverage enhancing adoption potential [4] - International markets, such as Japan and Saudi Arabia, are underpenetrated, offering additional growth opportunities [4] - The entry into over-the-counter and wellness markets with Stelo may create new revenue streams for the company [4] Group 4: Investment Thesis - The combination of a high-margin, sticky business model, innovation leadership, and underpenetrated markets provides a compelling risk/reward profile for investors [4] - Previous bullish theses highlighted product innovation, Type 2 diabetes expansion, and user growth despite margin pressures, although the stock has depreciated about 6% since then due to competition and cost headwinds [5] - The current thesis emphasizes reimbursement gains and platform integration, while also acknowledging risks associated with GLP-1 drugs [5]