随着新能源转型进入深水区、智能网联技术加速迭代，全球车企与供应链巨头纷纷携压箱底成果集结，其中中国车企的集体发力与AI技术在出行场景的全 域渗透，更有望影响全球汽车产业的竞争格局。 从核心动力技术突破到智能驾驶生态完善，从整车产品革新到供应链技术升级，这场科技盛宴将勾勒出未来出行的清晰轮廓。 图片系 AI 生成 作为全球科技产业的年度风向标，一年一度的CES展始终是前沿技术的"首发秀场"与行业趋势的"晴雨表"。2026年的CES，汽车板块无疑将成为展会核心焦 点。 来源：长城汽车官方 作为率先官宣参展的中国车企，长城汽车将以"GO With More Life"为主题，携全产品线与核心技术矩阵亮相2026 CES，这被视为其提升全球品牌认知度的关 键一步。 展会期间，魏牌将携高山9、全新蓝山智能进阶版、全新坦克500 Hi4-T智享版及灵魂S2000 CL摩托车将组成"全明星"参展阵容。 技术层面将重点展示Hi4-Z架构、半固态电池、氢燃料电池发动机三个新能源技术，同时发布ASL 2.0智能体与VLA全场景大模型等前沿成果。 其中ASL 2.0智能体可实现基于路况、用户需求的全维度信息处理与自主决策，VLA大 ...

Question-and-Answer SessionJoseph SpakUBS Investment Bank, Research Division So a lot to talk about here. I think the Mobileye story is almost a sort of continual sort of evolution, right? You have the base ADAS products, which is sort of the core competency of the business. That was evolving more into SuperVision, which started to launch and then sort of for reasons we don't sort of need to go in here today sort of took a little bit of a backseat. And then you sort of have the surround ADAS sort of come in ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Q3 revenue reached $504 million, a 4% year-over-year increase, driven by an 8% growth in EyeQ volume, significantly outpacing the 1% growth in overall vehicle production among the top 10 customers [4][5] - Operating cash flow for Q3 was $167 million, with year-to-date operating cash flow nearly $500 million, reflecting a 150% year-over-year increase [4][17] - The company raised its full-year revenue outlook midpoint by 2% and adjusted operating income midpoint by 11%, with expected volumes about 2 million units higher than original guidance [5][17] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The core ADAS business is performing well, with volumes remaining healthy for the last five quarters, and expected to continue in Q4 [4] - SuperVision volumes exceeded expectations, with a revised full-year estimate of around 50,000 units, significantly higher than initial projections [15][19] - EyeQ5 currently represents about 10% of volume, expected to peak at around 15% next year, which may pressure gross margins [15] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Stronger-than-expected results in China contributed to overall performance, with better-than-expected shipments to Chinese OEMs and performance from Western OEM customers in China [5] - The company expects to outperform the production of top 10 OEM customers globally by about 5 percentage points in 2025 [6] Company Strategy and Development Direction - Mobileye is focusing on execution in the SuperVision and Chauffeur production programs, with significant software innovations expected in the coming months [9][44] - The company is pursuing opportunities in robotaxi technology, with plans to remove safety drivers in the first U.S. city in 2026 and expand geographically [10][11] - The EyeQ6 High-based Surround ADAS systems are being developed to meet stricter safety standards and consolidate technology on a single SoC [8] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the growth potential in India and the increasing adoption of ADAS technologies [7] - The transition from eyes-off to minds-off autonomy is seen as a significant inflection point for the company, with plans to bring such systems to production by early 2027 [9][10] - Management emphasized that the current demand for higher performance at lower costs is intensifying, positioning Mobileye favorably in the market [11] Other Important Information - The company is working on integrating REM into front-facing camera programs, which is expected to enhance data collection and performance [10][101] - Management highlighted the importance of cost optimization in the Surround ADAS category, which is critical for high-volume vehicle production [51][82] Q&A Session Summary Question: Clarification on Western OEM design win - The recent nomination is for a second Surround ADAS program from a leading Western OEM, expected to be a significant portion of their vehicle lineup [23] Question: Gross margin impact from EyeQ5 and EyeQ6 - EyeQ5 volume is not expected to significantly impact gross margins, as new launches will be with EyeQ6 Lite, which has higher profitability [25][28] Question: Q4 expectations and chip issues - No material impact is expected in Q4 from chip issues, and the company maintains a cautious outlook with a buffer for unforeseen logistical issues [34] Question: Normalized unit growth expectations - The company expects to grow faster than the top 10 OEMs due to ADAS adoption growth and emerging markets, with a performance of about 5 percentage points faster than these OEMs this year [42] Question: Competitive landscape for Surround ADAS - The competitive landscape is highly cost-sensitive, and Mobileye's first mover advantage and efficient chip design provide a significant edge [82][84]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Q3 revenue reached $504 million, a 4% year-over-year increase, driven by an 8% growth in IQ volume, significantly outpacing the 1% growth in overall vehicle production among the top 10 customers [4][5] - Operating cash flow for Q3 was $167 million, with year-to-date cash flow nearly $500 million, reflecting a 150% year-over-year increase [4][17] - The company raised its full-year revenue outlook midpoint by 2% and adjusted operating income midpoint by 11%, with expected volumes about 2 million units higher than original guidance [5][17] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The core ADAS business is performing well, with volumes in a healthy range for the last five quarters, and expected to continue in Q4 [4] - SuperVision volumes exceeded expectations, with a revised full-year estimate of around 50,000 units, significantly higher than initial projections [15][19] - Gross margin declined by over 100 basis points year-over-year, primarily due to increased volumes from Chinese OEMs and higher costs associated with IQ5 programs [15] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Stronger-than-expected results in China contributed to overall performance, with better-than-expected shipments to Chinese OEMs and performance from Western OEM customers in China [5] - The company expects to outperform the production of top 10 OEM customers globally by about 5 percentage points in 2025 [6] Company Strategy and Development Direction - Mobileye is focusing on execution and innovation in its SuperVision and Chauffeur programs, with significant software updates expected in the coming months [9][44] - The company is positioning itself as an OEM-neutral platform with a credible technology path to eyes-off autonomy, targeting both privately owned vehicles and robotaxis [7][10] - The growth potential in India is becoming increasingly clear, supported by adoption trends and regulatory environments [7] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company's growth trajectory, highlighting that the opportunity set is larger and more urgent than when the company went public in 2022 [11] - The focus for 2026 is on execution rather than acquiring new business, with expectations to be production-ready for SuperVision and Chauffeur platforms in the first half of 2026 [44] Other Important Information - The company is actively working on multiple advanced product lines, including surround ADAS, SuperVision, Chauffeur, and Drive, all sharing common technological foundations [8] - The IQ6 High chip is positioned as a cost-effective solution for high-volume vehicles, with significant traction among OEMs [85] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you clarify the recent design win with a Western OEM? - The recent nomination is for a second surround ADAS program from a leading Western OEM, expected to be a significant portion of their vehicle lineup [23] Question: How do you anticipate gross margin changes with IQ6 ramping up? - The profitability of IQ6 is expected to be higher than IQ5, with no significant headwinds anticipated from the transition [25][28] Question: What factors are influencing Q4 expectations? - The company expects Q4 volume to align with full-year guidance, with no material impact from recent chip issues anticipated [34] Question: Can you provide details on the Lyft robotaxi program? - The program is in advanced testing stages, with the first city launch planned for Dallas-Fort Worth, and further details will be disclosed soon [36] Question: How does the competitive landscape look for surround ADAS? - Mobileye has a first-mover advantage in surround ADAS, focusing on cost optimization and efficient design to meet OEM needs [84][85]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Q3 revenue reached $504 million, a 4% increase year over year, driven by an 8% growth in IQ volume, significantly outpacing the 1% growth in overall vehicle production among the top 10 customers [3][4] - Operating cash flow was $167 million in Q3, with year-to-date cash flow nearly $500 million, reflecting a 150% increase year over year [3][15] - The company raised its full-year revenue outlook by 2% and adjusted operating income by 11%, with expected volumes about 2 million units higher than original guidance [4][16] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The core ADAS business is performing well, with healthy volume ranges maintained for the last five quarters [3] - SuperVision volume exceeded 20,000 units in Q3, with a full-year expectation of around 50,000 units, significantly higher than initial projections [12][13] - Gross margin declined by over 100 basis points year over year, primarily due to increased volumes from Chinese OEMs and higher costs associated with IQ5 programs [13][14] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Stronger-than-expected results in China contributed positively to overall performance, with significant shipments to both Chinese OEMs and Western OEMs operating in China [4] - The company expects to outperform the production of its top 10 OEM customers globally by about 5 percentage points in 2025 [4] Company Strategy and Development Direction - Mobileye is focusing on expanding its advanced product offerings, including surround ADAS, SuperVision, Chauffeur, and Drive, leveraging the IQ6 High-inference chip [5][6] - The company aims to transition from eyes-off to minds-off autonomy by 2029, with significant advancements expected in the next few years [8][9] - The growth potential in emerging markets like India is becoming increasingly clear, supported by regulatory environments [5] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company's ability to meet future demand for higher performance at lower costs, emphasizing that eyes-off capability is becoming a commercially viable reality [10] - The company is focused on execution in 2026, with significant software innovations expected in the near term [38][39] - Management highlighted the importance of maintaining strong relationships with OEMs and the competitive advantages of their technology in the evolving market landscape [46][72] Other Important Information - The company is actively pursuing robotaxi opportunities, with plans to remove safety drivers in the U.S. by 2026 and expand operations in Europe [10][81] - Mobileye is expanding its REM data collection efforts, which are crucial for enhancing AI training and improving front-facing camera performance [84] Q&A Session Summary Question: Clarification on Western OEM design win - The recent nomination is for a second surround ADAS program from a leading Western OEM, expected to be a significant portion of their vehicle lineup [21][22] Question: Gross margin impact from IQ5 and IQ6 - IQ5 volumes are expected to peak at around 15%, but the profitability difference between IQ5 and IQ6 is not significant [23][25] Question: Q4 expectations and market factors - The company does not expect material impacts from recent chip issues and anticipates Q4 volumes to align with full-year expectations [30] Question: Details on Lyft robotaxi program - The first city for the Lyft robotaxi program will be Dallas-Fort Worth, with advanced testing currently underway [32] Question: Competitive landscape for surround ADAS - Mobileye has a first-mover advantage in surround ADAS, focusing on cost optimization and efficient design to meet OEM needs [71][72]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Mobileye (MBLY.US) with a target price adjusted to $18.1, indicating a potential upside of 17% [1][3]. Core Insights - Mobileye's 2Q25 performance exceeded expectations, with revenue reaching $506 million, a 15% year-over-year increase. The company has raised its full-year revenue guidance to a range of $1.765 to $1.885 billion [9][12]. - The company is optimistic about its growth trajectory, expecting a revenue inflection point in 2027, driven by advancements in autonomous driving technology and partnerships with major players like Volkswagen, Lyft, and Uber [9][12]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for Mobileye from 2023 to 2027 are as follows: - 2023: $2,079 million - 2024: $1,654 million - 2025E: $1,851 million - 2026E: $1,948 million - 2027E: $2,650 million - The adjusted net profit is forecasted to grow from $659 million in 2023 to $540 million in 2027, with a notable increase of 56% in 2027 [2][10]. Performance Metrics - In 2Q25, Mobileye's total shipment volume reached 9.7 million units, a 28% increase year-over-year, with EyeQ chip shipments close to 9.65 million units [12]. - The adjusted gross margin for 2025 is projected at 68.5%, with an adjusted net profit margin of 15.6% [13][15]. Valuation - The report employs a DCF valuation method, estimating a WACC of 12.3% and a perpetual growth rate of 3%, leading to a target price of $18.1 per share [9][14].

Core Insights - Mobileye Global reported a fiscal second-quarter 2025 revenue of $506 million, a 15% year-on-year increase, surpassing analyst expectations of $463.26 million, with adjusted EPS of 13 cents exceeding the consensus estimate of 9 cents [1][3] - The company raised its fiscal 2025 revenue outlook to a range of $1.765 billion to $1.885 billion, up from the previous range of $1.690 billion to $1.810 billion, aligning closely with the analyst consensus estimate of $1.770 billion [2] Financial Performance - Shipments of approximately 9.7 million EyeQ units exceeded the analyst's estimate of 9 million, driven by strong demand from OEMs, particularly in China [6] - Adjusted gross margin for the quarter was 68.6%, slightly above the analyst's estimate of 68.4% and close to the Street's expectation of 68.8% [6] - Operating expenses were lower than anticipated at $241 million, resulting in adjusted operating income of $106 million, surpassing both expectations and the preliminary guidance [6] Future Outlook - Management emphasized 2027 as a critical year for revenue acceleration, driven by the adoption of SuperVision and initial deployments of Connected and Autonomous Vehicles (CAVs) [7] - Full-scale Drive deployments are planned for late 2026 across multiple U.S. and European cities, with the CAV business expected to contribute $150 million in 2027 revenue [8] - The company anticipates ADAS revenue could reach around $2 billion in 2027, which is considered a conservative estimate [8] Market Position and Partnerships - Mobileye's partnerships with major companies such as Volkswagen, Uber, and Lyft are expected to enhance its market position in the autonomous driving sector [9] - The company is transitioning to full production hardware for the ID. Buzz robotaxi, with teleoperations expected to begin in 2025 and driverless service planned for 2026 [9] Analyst Commentary - Needham analyst Quinn Bolton reiterated a buy rating on Mobileye with a price target of $18, despite the stock's decline following the earnings report [3][11] - Bolton noted that while management's tone was cautious, there is potential upside in fourth-quarter revenue and improving margin visibility, supporting a strong long-term growth trajectory for Mobileye [11]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs downgraded Mobileye Global (MBLY.US) from "Buy" to "Neutral" due to competitive landscape and high stock valuation, maintaining a 12-month target price of $17 [1] Group 1: Stock Performance and Market Position - Since Goldman Sachs rated Mobileye as "Buy" in November 2022, the stock has declined by 38%, while the S&P 500 has increased by 52% [1] - Mobileye holds over 50% market share in the ADAS market, covering most major automakers' L1/L2 projects [3] Group 2: Competitive Landscape - Mobileye faces competition from automakers' in-house projects and other chip/system providers, with some automakers considering licensing L4 autonomous driving technology from companies like Tesla or Waymo [2] - Several automakers, including Ford, General Motors, Honda, and Nissan, have announced plans to pursue L2++/L3/L4 projects based on in-house or competitor technologies, potentially reducing market opportunities for Mobileye [3] Group 3: Future Prospects and Challenges - Mobileye expects more design contracts for its SuperVision and Chauffeur products by the end of 2024, but recent contract announcements have been limited [4] - Revenue from China is declining, with the share of revenue from the region expected to drop from 31% in 2023 to 26% in 2024, attributed to tariffs, inventory adjustments, and loss of market share [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that the autonomous driving market is on the verge of a significant breakthrough, with major companies like Tesla, Uber, and Waymo making substantial advancements in the commercialization of autonomous vehicles this year [3][4]. Group 1: Market Overview - The autonomous driving market is projected to grow from $1.7 trillion to $3.9 trillion over the next decade, with fully autonomous driving expected to increase from $60 billion in 2024 to $200 billion by 2033 [4]. - McKinsey predicts that autonomous driving could generate $400 billion in revenue by 2035 [4]. Group 2: Deployment Strategies - There are two primary strategies for deploying autonomous vehicles: gradual deployment (L2/L3 to L4) and direct deployment of fully autonomous systems (L4 Robotaxi) [5][13]. - Gradual deployment involves traditional automakers like Tesla and BMW, focusing on enhancing automation through user data and algorithm training [7][10]. - Direct deployment is led by tech companies like Waymo and Cruise, focusing on specific geofenced areas for autonomous operations [14][15]. Group 3: Key Players - Mobileye (MBLY) is highlighted as a core supplier for the second deployment strategy, providing essential components like chips and software for autonomous driving [21][24]. - MBLY holds a 50% market share in the Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS) market, with its EyeQ chip integrated into approximately one-third of new vehicles globally [26]. - Collaborations with major automakers like BMW and Volkswagen enhance MBLY's market presence and revenue potential [30][34]. Group 4: Uber and Lyft's Role - Uber is positioned as a leading player in the ride-hailing market, holding a 75% market share in the U.S., while Lyft holds 25% [48]. - Uber's profitability, with a net profit margin of 22.4%, contrasts with Lyft's lower profitability, indicating Uber's stronger market position [50][52]. - Collaborations with MBLY and other tech companies are crucial for both Uber and Lyft to integrate autonomous vehicles into their platforms [46][56]. Group 5: Pony.ai's Expansion - Pony.ai is identified as a Chinese autonomous driving software company, with significant growth potential in the robotaxi market, projected to expand from $54 million in 2023 to $12 billion by 2030 [58]. - The company has achieved all-weather Level 4 autonomous driving and is expanding its services in major Chinese cities [59][61]. - Partnerships with Uber and Toyota are expected to enhance Pony.ai's global reach and operational capabilities [63].

Core Viewpoint - Mobileye Global Inc. reported strong first-quarter revenue growth of 83% year-on-year, reaching $438 million, surpassing analyst expectations, while adjusted EPS met consensus estimates [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - First-quarter revenue increased by 83% year-on-year to $438 million, exceeding the analyst consensus estimate of $435.2 million [1]. - Adjusted EPS for the quarter was 8 cents, aligning with analyst consensus [1]. - FY25 earnings per share projected at 27 cents, while FY26 EPS estimate was lowered from 40 cents to 35 cents [5]. Group 2: Partnerships and Contracts - Strong design win momentum highlighted, including Mobileye's first Surround ADAS win and a significant ADAS contract with a Korean automaker [2]. - Progress noted in robotaxi partnerships with Uber and Lyft, with potential for meaningful contributions by 2027 [2]. - Lyft collaboration is advancing, with initial rollouts expected in Dallas by 2026, operated by Marubeni [3]. Group 3: Business Model and Forecast Adjustments - Partnerships will follow a business model involving a one-time upfront system fee and recurring licensing fees based on mileage, providing solid average selling prices and favorable margins [4]. - 2025 estimates remain mostly intact, with slight adjustments to gross margin and operating expenses; however, 2026 forecasts were reduced due to anticipated delays in SuperVision and CAV unit volumes [4]. - Porsche identified as the only driver of incremental SV volume in the near term [5].