Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that the company is positioned to benefit significantly from the growing demand for advanced packaging equipment driven by global AI and HPC trends, with a complete equipment matrix covering key processes [1] - The company holds the largest global market share in TCB and has successfully upgraded and mass-produced HB equipment, indicating strong competitive positioning in the advanced packaging sector [1] - The company has seen a continuous increase in new orders for six consecutive quarters, driven by the resonance of AI server demand and domestic market recovery, suggesting a positive outlook for revenue growth [1] Group 2 - The company is expected to experience a significant increase in advanced packaging revenue and global market share due to structural expansion in the industry, particularly with the ramp-up of HBM production and ongoing equipment procurement cycles [1] - The improvement in profit margins is attributed to a higher proportion of high-margin products, structural enhancements in SMT, and cost optimization, indicating a turning point in profitability [1] - The geopolitical landscape and domestic substitution trends are expected to enhance the company's market share in China, as it is the only packaging equipment manufacturer capable of supplying ECD, benefiting from local supply chain policies [1] Group 3 - The company is projected to achieve revenue of HKD 141.14 billion, 165.73 billion, and 189.05 billion for the years 2025-2027, representing year-on-year growth rates of 6.69%, 17.42%, and 14.07% respectively [2] - The expected net profit for the same period is HKD 4.19 billion, 11.13 billion, and 17.15 billion, with corresponding PE ratios of 85, 32, and 21 times, indicating a clear growth trajectory [2] - The investment recommendation is to "overweight" the stock based on the company's long-term growth logic, order recovery, and profit structure improvement [2]

Core Viewpoint - ASMPT is experiencing accelerated recovery in its SMT business driven by the resonance of AI server demand and domestic market needs, entering a new upcycle alongside HBM capacity expansion [1][2][3] Group 1: Advanced Packaging Equipment - The global AI and HPC markets are driving rapid penetration of advanced packaging processes such as TCB and Hybrid Bonding, leading to a sustained increase in equipment demand [1] - The company has a comprehensive equipment matrix in advanced packaging, covering key processes including deposition, TCB, HB, Fan-out, and SiP, with the highest global market share in TCB [1] - With the initiation of HBM capacity expansion and the continuation of advanced logic equipment procurement cycles, the company is expected to gain significant incremental growth during the structural expansion of the industry [1] Group 2: Orders and Profitability - The company has seen a continuous year-on-year increase in new orders for six consecutive quarters, with AI server and domestic demand driving the accelerated recovery of SMT [2] - The improvement in the proportion of advanced packaging, structural enhancements in SMT, and cost optimization have led to a turning point in gross margin and profitability, with significant earnings elasticity expected from 2025 to 2027 [2] Group 3: Market Share and Geopolitical Factors - In the context of U.S. export controls and accelerated domestic substitution, capital expenditure among domestic packaging and testing firms remains high, benefiting the company as the only vendor capable of supplying ECD in packaging equipment [3] - The company is expected to continue benefiting from supply chain autonomy and domestic policy dividends due to its deep local network and leading customer resources [3] Group 4: Investment Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from long-term trends in advanced packaging, order recovery, and improvements in profitability structure, with clear growth logic [3] - Projected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are estimated at HKD 141.14 billion, 165.73 billion, and 189.05 billion, representing year-on-year growth of 6.69%, 17.42%, and 14.07% respectively, with corresponding net profits of HKD 4.19 billion, 11.13 billion, and 17.15 billion [3]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported Q2 2025 earnings, with revenue meeting guidance and showing year-over-year growth, driven by strong demand in semiconductor solutions and signs of recovery in SMT business [3][4]. Group 1: Q2 Financial Performance - Q2 revenue was $436 million (34 billion HKD), up 1.8% YoY and 8.9% QoQ, aligning with the guidance range [3]. - Semiconductor solutions revenue was 20.1 billion HKD ($2.58 billion), up 20.9% YoY and 1% QoQ, driven by strong demand for TCB tools [3]. - SMT business revenue was 13.9 billion HKD ($1.79 billion), down 17.2% YoY but up 22.6% QoQ, with strong sales in China and advanced packaging partially offset by weakness in automotive and industrial markets [3]. - Q2 gross margin decreased to 39.7%, down 33 basis points YoY and 119 basis points QoQ; adjusted net profit was 1.35 billion HKD, down 1.6% YoY but up 62.1% QoQ [3]. Group 2: Order and Backlog Insights - The company secured new orders worth $482 million in Q2, up 20.2% YoY and 11.9% QoQ; backlog stood at $873 million with an order-to-ship ratio of 1.10 [4]. - Semiconductor solutions accounted for 59% of total revenue, with new orders of $213 million, down 4.5% QoQ due to uneven advanced packaging orders [4]. - SMT business showed recovery with new orders of $269 million, up 29.4% QoQ and 51.2% YoY, driven by demand from a smartphone client and AI server needs [4]. Group 3: Future Outlook and Growth Drivers - The company guided Q3 revenue to be between $445 million and $505 million, representing a 10.8% YoY increase and 8.9% QoQ growth, benefiting from improvements in advanced packaging and SMT businesses [4]. - Despite ongoing weakness in automotive and industrial markets, the increase in Q2 orders is expected to support Q3 performance [4]. - Key growth drivers include strong TCB demand, recovery in mainstream packaging equipment and SMT demand, and sales growth in the Chinese market [4]. Group 4: Strategic Developments - The company is deepening its focus on TCB, HB, and CPO, with ongoing production and shipment of TCB tools [5]. - Significant orders have been secured for photonic tools and CPO layouts, with expectations to start deliveries of HB tools in Q3 [6].

Q1 2025 Results Presentation 30th April 2025 Disclaimer The information contained in this presentation is provided for informational purpose only and should not be relied upon for the purpose of making any investment or for any other purpose. Some of the information used in preparing this presentation was obtained from third parties or public sources. The information contained in this presentation has not been independently verified. No representation or warranty, expressed or implied, is made as to, and no ...