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业绩“虚胖”藏隐忧,药明康德短期红利下的周期依赖与市场风险
Hua Xia Shi Bao· 2025-08-28 14:24
Core Viewpoint - The market performance of WuXi AppTec, a leading player in the CXO industry, contrasts with its impressive interim financial results, leading to investor concerns about the company's true operational capabilities [1][2][5]. Financial Performance - WuXi AppTec reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of 8.66 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, which included a one-time gain of 1.89 billion yuan from the disposal of non-current assets. Excluding this, the adjusted net profit was approximately 5.58 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth rate of only 26.44%, significantly lower than the reported net profit growth of 102.3% [6][10]. - The company's adjusted net profit growth has shown a declining trend over the past five years, dropping from a peak of 103.27% in 2020 to just 2.47% in 2024, indicating a concerning long-term performance trajectory [6][19]. Business Segments - The chemical business generated revenue of 16.30 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 33.5%, accounting for 78.4% of total revenue. The TIDES business (oligonucleotides and peptides) alone contributed 5.03 billion yuan, with a remarkable growth of 141.6%, driving 82% of the chemical business's growth [10][11]. - However, the TIDES business's growth is heavily reliant on the global demand for weight-loss drug development, which is subject to market fluctuations. As of June, the order growth rate had already slowed to 48.8%, down from 105.5% in the previous quarter [12][13]. Customer Dependency and Risks - WuXi AppTec's revenue is significantly dependent on U.S. clients, with 14.03 billion yuan from U.S. customers, representing 69% of total revenue and a year-on-year growth of 38.4%. This dependency poses risks, especially in light of geopolitical tensions and potential regulatory changes in the U.S. market [13][14]. - The company has been advised to diversify its customer base to mitigate risks associated with its heavy reliance on the U.S. market, with potential growth opportunities identified in Europe and Southeast Asia, albeit with challenges [14]. Capacity Expansion and Profitability - Over the past five years, WuXi AppTec has engaged in aggressive capacity expansion, with fixed assets increasing from 5.71 billion yuan in 2020 to an estimated 18.78 billion yuan by 2024, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 36.2% [17][20]. - Despite this expansion, the company experienced a revenue decline of 2.73% in 2024, marking its first negative growth, contrasting sharply with the high growth rate of 71.84% in 2022. This indicates a disconnect between capacity expansion and sustainable revenue growth [18][19]. Future Outlook - The rebound in the 2025 interim report is primarily attributed to the short-term surge in the TIDES business rather than an overall improvement in capacity utilization. The company's ability to convert its substantial capacity into real operational efficiency remains a critical area of focus [21][22].
营收、净利创历史新高 药明康德宣布实施首次中期分红
Core Viewpoint - WuXi AppTec, a leading CRO company, reported strong financial performance for the first half of 2025, with significant revenue and profit growth, and announced its first interim dividend to share growth benefits with global investors [1][2][3]. Financial Performance - The company achieved a revenue of 20.799 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 20.64% [1][2]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders reached 8.56 billion yuan, marking a substantial year-on-year growth of 101.92% [1][2]. - Adjusted Non-IFRS net profit was 6.31 billion yuan, up 44.4% year-on-year, with a net profit margin reaching a historical high of 30.4% [2][3]. - Operating cash flow was 7.07 billion yuan, a significant increase of 49.1% year-on-year, providing ample resources for capacity expansion and shareholder returns [2][3]. Orders and Growth Drivers - The company reported a record high of 56.69 billion yuan in backlog orders, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 37.2% [2][3]. - The small molecule CDMO pipeline exceeded 3,400 projects, with 412 new additions in the first half of 2025 [2]. - Revenue from TIDES (oligonucleotides and peptides) reached 5.03 billion yuan, showing a remarkable year-on-year growth of 141.6%, becoming a new growth engine for the company [2]. Shareholder Returns - The board approved the first-ever interim dividend of 3.5 yuan per 10 shares, totaling approximately 1 billion yuan [3]. - Cumulative shareholder returns since the beginning of 2025 are approaching 7 billion yuan, including completed dividends and share buybacks [3]. - The company plans to increase buyback efforts if the stock price remains undervalued, with total shareholder returns expected to reach 8 billion yuan for the year [3]. Revised Guidance - The company raised its full-year guidance for 2025, increasing the revenue growth forecast from 10%-15% to 13%-17%, with total revenue expectations adjusted from 41.5 billion-43 billion yuan to 42.5 billion-43.5 billion yuan [3]. - Free cash flow projections were revised upward from 4 billion-5 billion yuan to 5 billion-6 billion yuan [3]. - Capital expenditures are maintained at 7 billion-8 billion yuan for global capacity and capability building [3]. Institutional Holdings - As of July 28, 2025, 395 institutional investors held shares in WuXi AppTec, with a total holding of 1.159 billion shares, accounting for 40.37% of total shares [4]. - The top ten institutional investors collectively held 32.40% of shares, with an increase of 2.81 percentage points from the previous quarter [4]. - There were 53 public funds that increased their holdings, while 154 public funds reduced their holdings compared to the previous quarter [5].