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看好AI数据中心驱动NAND景气度持续上行至26H2
Ge Long Hui· 2025-09-29 00:59
Core Viewpoint - The current storage cycle is characterized by "conservative expectations" and is driven by increased CAPEX from North American CSPs and overflow demand for HDDs, with expectations of sustained storage market growth at least until the second half of 2026 [1][2]. Supply Side - The previous storage cycle began in June 2023, with major manufacturers reducing production, leading to a balance in supply and demand for DRAM and NAND Flash, resulting in price increases of 20%-70% for DRAM and 80%-200% for NAND Flash from their lows [1][2]. - Current NAND production capacity utilization is around 80%+, with cautious CAPEX planning from NAND manufacturers, which may create a supply gap [4][5]. - Major NAND manufacturers have announced production cuts of 10%-15% since December 2024, focusing on higher-tier products and reducing supply of lower-tier products [2][4]. Demand Side - The surge in AI CAPEX is driving demand for data center storage, with expectations of an 81% and 64% year-on-year increase in AI CAPEX for 2025 and 2026, respectively [3]. - There is a significant supply shortage of HDDs, leading CSPs to consider transitioning to eSSD for cold data storage, with enterprise SSD demand projected to reach 339.2 billion GB by 2026, a 35% increase year-on-year [3][5]. Price Trends - Since September, NAND manufacturers have begun to raise prices, with SanDisk announcing a price increase of over 10% for flash products due to high demand for enterprise eSSD and tight supply of lower-tier products [6]. - NAND Flash wafer and module prices have seen slight increases, with expectations of a 5%-10% price rise in Q4 2025 [6]. Investment Strategy - The industry is optimistic about the sustained demand for enterprise SSDs, with recommendations to focus on companies that are rapidly advancing in enterprise storage and benefiting from price increases [8].