存储材料：Opex 业务直接受益下游高景气及承接 Capex 后周期产能释放 20260107 摘要 长鑫存储四季度单季度净利润接近 40 亿元，预计 2026 年全年利润规 模可达三四百亿元，并计划上市募资超过 300 亿元人民币，显示出强劲 的增长势头。 长鑫和长存在全球存储市场份额虽不足 5%，但正通过高资本开支周期 大幅扩产，目标是完成国产替代并显著提升全球市占率，有望在五年内 成为全球领先者。 中国大陆已是全球第二大半导体市场，随着新产能释放，市场份额将进 一步提升。硅片是晶圆制造材料中占比最大的部分，国内厂商包括沪硅 产业等，而光刻胶和掩模板国产化率较低，存在替代空间。 建议重点关注安集科技（CMP 抛光液，存储领域敞口高，预计 2025 年 利润 8 亿元）、鼎龙股份（CMP 抛光液）、广钢气体（电子大宗气）和 江丰电子（靶材）等半导体材料公司。 存储周期对半导体材料公司有显著影响，短期内下游原厂价格上涨将提 升稼动率并加速新产能释放，增加原材料需求；长期来看，新产能扩张 将带来耗材需求的持续增长。 Q&A 2026 年半导体设备和材料市场的整体趋势如何？ 半导体材料行业的现状及重点关注领域有哪 ...

行 业 报 告 行业点评 存储周期强劲，美光业绩超预期 强于大市( 维持) 行情走势图 杨钟 投资咨询资格编号 S1060525080001 yangzhong035@pingan.com.cn 郭冠君 投资咨询资格编号 S1060524050003 GUOGUANJUN625@pingan.com.cn 徐勇 投资咨询资格编号 S1060519090004 XUYONG318@pingan.com.cn 事项： 近日，美光科技发布FY26Q1财报，FY26Q1公司Non-GAAP营收达136.4亿美 元 ， 同 比 +57% ， 环 比 +21% ， Non-GAAP 净 利 润 达 54.8 亿 美 元 ， 同 比 +169%，环比+58%。 平安观点： 电子 相关研究报告 【平安证券】行业动态跟踪报告*电子*存储周期跟踪 复盘，AI催生景气向上*强于大市20251124 【平安证券】行业深度报告*电子*AI系列专题报告 （九）存储：主流存储迎来全面涨价，企业级产品需 求持续向好*强于大市20251106 证券分析师 2025年12月19日 行 业 点 评 研 究 报 告 求，122TB和245TB容量的 ...

Core Viewpoint - Micron's recent earnings report for Q1 FY26 signifies a shift in market focus from quarterly earnings to future earnings guidance and the sustainability of supply-demand dynamics [3]. Group 1: Financial Performance - For Q1 FY26, Micron reported revenue of $13.64 billion, Non-GAAP EPS of $4.78, Non-GAAP gross margin of 56.8%, operating cash flow of $8.41 billion, and adjusted free cash flow of $3.91 billion [4]. - The Cloud Memory Business Unit, which is closely tied to cloud and data center operations, has grown significantly with a gross margin of 66%, indicating a quantifiable impact from AI [4]. - The guidance for Q2 FY26 includes revenue of $18.7 billion (±$400 million), Non-GAAP gross margin of 68% (±1%), and Non-GAAP EPS of $8.42 (±$0.20), representing a substantial upward revision from market expectations of approximately $14.2 billion [4]. Group 2: Key Market Concerns - HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) has transitioned from a demand-driven market to a supply-constrained environment, with management indicating that they have secured pricing and quantity agreements for the entire calendar year 2026 [5]. - Micron's management stated that they can only meet about 50% to 66% of demand for key customers, highlighting the limited elasticity of supply even if demand increases [5]. - The long-term market potential for HBM is projected to reach approximately $35 billion by 2025 and $100 billion by 2028, with a CAGR of around 40%, indicating a more aggressive outlook than previously anticipated [5]. Group 3: Traditional DRAM/NAND Market - Micron confirmed that both DRAM and NAND markets are experiencing demand exceeding supply, with gross margin expansion driven by higher prices, lower costs, and improved product mix [6]. - The transition to 1-gamma DRAM is progressing, expected to become the primary output by the second half of 2026, while NAND is shifting towards G9 NAND and higher QLC ratios [6][7]. Group 4: Capital Expenditure Insights - Micron has raised its capital expenditure (Capex) for FY26 to approximately $20 billion, focusing on HBM supply capacity and 1-gamma DRAM supply [8]. - This Capex increase signals a positive outlook on demand certainty and the company's commitment to meeting that demand, although it also poses a risk if the industry collectively increases Capex too rapidly [8]. Group 5: Conclusion and Future Monitoring - Micron has not completely shed its cyclical nature, but structural factors such as increased HBM and data center business proportions are elevating the overall profit curve [9]. - The shift towards longer-term supply agreements and stronger multi-year contract tendencies may lead to a more predictable cycle, moving away from short-term price-driven volatility [9]. - Key areas to monitor include the balance of DRAM/NAND supply and demand, the completion of HBM pricing and quantity agreements for 2026, and the potential impact of new tariffs not included in the guidance [10][11].

Core Insights - The semiconductor equipment sector is experiencing significant attention and performance, with stocks like Tuojing Technology and Zhongke Feice rising over 10% during a recent market rebound, and the sector index increasing by 3.26% [1][2]. Market Dynamics - The surge in the semiconductor equipment sector is attributed to three main factors: the explosion of AI computing power, the upward cycle of storage, and the acceleration of domestic substitution, positioning the sector for substantial earnings realization [2][3]. - The global semiconductor industry is entering a recovery phase, with the global semiconductor market expected to reach $346 billion in the first half of 2025, marking an 18.9% year-on-year increase, and an annual growth of 15.4% to $728 billion [3]. Equipment Market Growth - The semiconductor equipment market is projected to see explosive growth, with global equipment shipments expected to reach nearly $100 billion by 2025 and $138.1 billion by 2026, driven primarily by high-performance demands from AI and HBM technologies [3][5]. Capital Expenditure Trends - Major overseas storage manufacturers, including Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron, are significantly increasing their capital expenditures, with expected year-on-year growth exceeding 80% by 2025 [5]. Domestic Market Developments - In China, the semiconductor equipment market is projected to reach $21.62 billion by mid-2025, accounting for 33.2% of the global market, making it the largest single market globally [8]. - Domestic companies like Changxin Storage and Yangtze Memory Technologies are accelerating their expansion efforts, with significant investments in production capacity [11]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The demand for storage is being driven by AI models, with AI servers requiring significantly more DRAM and NAND capacity compared to regular servers, leading to a super cycle in the storage industry [9][11]. - The domestic storage market faces a rigid supply gap, with a long-standing trade deficit in storage chips, necessitating urgent expansion efforts [11]. Equipment Procurement and Localization - The expansion of domestic storage manufacturers will not only fill local gaps but also enable participation in the global market, with significant investments in equipment procurement expected to exceed $10 billion [11]. - The current low localization rates of core semiconductor equipment present substantial opportunities for domestic manufacturers to increase their market share [12]. Long-term Industry Outlook - The semiconductor equipment industry is expected to be driven by both technological iterations and domestic substitution, with continuous demand for new equipment arising from advancements in AI and storage technologies [13]. - Key investment areas include wafer manufacturing equipment, particularly etching, lithography, and thin-film deposition equipment, which collectively account for over 60% of the equipment market [14]. Investment Opportunities - The core equipment sector is identified as having the strongest growth certainty, with companies like Zhongwei and Tuojing Technology leading in market share for etching and thin-film deposition equipment [16]. - Platform leaders that offer comprehensive product lines for one-stop procurement are positioned to benefit from increased customer loyalty and growth potential [17]. - Niche markets with low localization rates present "small but beautiful" growth opportunities, particularly in measurement equipment [18]. Conclusion - The semiconductor equipment sector is transitioning from short-term pressures to a phase of growth certainty, with significant structural opportunities emerging as the global equipment market is expected to surpass $130 billion by 2026 [19].

Core Viewpoint - The semiconductor equipment sector is experiencing a significant rebound driven by AI computing power, an upward storage cycle, and accelerated domestic substitution, positioning the industry for substantial performance realization [7][8]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The global semiconductor industry is entering a rapid recovery phase, with the market expected to reach $346 billion in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 18.9%, and an annual growth of 15.4% to $728 billion [10]. - Semiconductor equipment is projected to see explosive growth, with global shipments expected to reach nearly $100 billion in 2025 and soar to $138.1 billion in 2026, driven primarily by AI and high-bandwidth memory (HBM) demands [10]. - Major overseas storage manufacturers, including Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron, are significantly increasing their capital expenditures, with expected year-on-year growth exceeding 80% in 2025 [12]. Group 2: Domestic Market Developments - The domestic semiconductor equipment market is set to reach $21.62 billion by mid-2025, accounting for 33.2% of the global market, making it the largest single market worldwide [14]. - Domestic companies like Changxin Storage and Yangtze Memory Technologies are accelerating capacity expansion, with Changxin's IPO valuation reaching $140 billion and Yangtze Memory's third-phase project registered with a capital of $20.72 billion [14]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Trends - The demand for storage is being driven by AI models, with AI servers requiring DRAM capacity eight times that of regular servers and NAND capacity three times higher, leading to a significant increase in storage needs [16]. - The storage industry is entering a "super cycle" of simultaneous volume and price increases, with AI servers, data centers, and consumer electronics driving demand while supply is constrained by a shift towards high-margin HBM and server DRAM [16]. Group 4: Investment Opportunities - The semiconductor equipment industry is expected to be driven by "technological iteration and domestic substitution," with continuous demand for new equipment arising from advancements in AI and storage technologies [22]. - Key investment areas include core equipment such as etching, lithography, and thin-film deposition, which collectively account for over 60% of the equipment value distribution [23]. - Companies like North Huachuang and Tuojing Technology are positioned as leaders in their respective fields, with significant market shares and growth potential [24][25]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The semiconductor equipment sector is anticipated to enter a golden growth period characterized by simultaneous increases in volume and price, alongside market share expansion, driven by AI and storage technology advancements [27]. - The current period is seen as a critical window for investors to capitalize on the long-term development of the industry, with a focus on storage expansion, advanced packaging, and HBM-related core demand scenarios [27].

信创ETF（159537）跟踪的是国证信创指数（CN5075），该指数从沪深市场中选取业务涉及软件开 发、计算机设备等信息技术领域的上市公司证券作为指数样本，以反映信息技术创新主题相关上市公司 证券的整体表现。指数覆盖了从基础硬件到应用软件的全产业链，行业配置上侧重于制造业和信息传 输、软件服务业，成分股呈现大盘特征，注重市值较大企业。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） 随着"十五五"规划提出，科技自主可控成为重点工作目标，国产算力板块有望成为市场主线，同时持续 看好AI浪潮下的存储周期和消费电子的创新周期。 相关机构表示，随着海外原厂将资本开支倾斜于HBM为代表的高端存储产品，传统存储的供需缺口具 有持续性，因此国内存储厂商扩产的紧迫性不断上升。目前，长鑫存储已完成IPO辅导，当前其在 DDR5和LPDDR5产品上正实现显著增长，Counterpoint预测，长鑫存储在DDR5市场的份额将从第一季 度不到1%上升至年底的7%，在LPDDR5市场的份额将从0.5%激增至9%，先进制程技术发展迅猛。 ...

每日经济新闻消息，据智通财经报道，存储芯片现货价格近期大幅飙升，DDR4x颗粒年内涨幅超4倍，渠 道端已出现"惜售"囤货现象，但作为制造业实体的手机等终端厂商目前库存水位处于历史低位，普遍低于 4周（健康水位为8-10周），正面临供应链紧张下的"被动补库"局面。 据红星资本局，多个品牌新款手机日前上市，起售价涨幅100元至300元不等。 随着存储涨价潮持续发酵，联想、戴尔、惠普等PC厂商都计划涨价，涨幅最高达到20%。 其中，联想已开始通知客户即将进行涨价调整。当前所有的服务器和电脑的报价将于2026年1月1日到期， 届时新的报价将会大幅涨价。 戴尔同样向客户发出了涨价预警。业内人士表示，戴尔正考虑对PC和服务器产品涨价，预计涨幅至少 15%–20%，涨价最快可能在12月中旬生效。此前戴尔首席运营官Jeff Clarke曾警告，他"从未见过内存芯片 成本涨得这么快"，各产品线的开支都在攀升。 惠普CEO Enrique Lores则警告称，2026年下半年"可能尤其艰难"，必要时将上调价格。他指出，内存芯片 约占一台PC成本的15%–18%。 高盛分析师预测，预计美光科技第三季度营收将达到132亿美元，超过华 ...

华泰证券电子行业2026年度展望：持续看好AI链 关注存储周期影响 华泰证券发布电子行业2026年度展望指出，2025年电子行业在AI链引领创新以及下游终端需求整体持 续复苏的带动下持续上行，同时2025年下半年开始存储板块也在大幅供需差下开启涨价周期，展望2026 年，建议关注几个方向：1）继续看好存储周期，涨价在AI数据中心的拉动下或具备一定持续性，国内 存储芯片及配套环节均有望受益；2）看好全球头部CSP厂ASIC加速落地，带动PCB等算力产业链向高 端化持续演进；3）国内代工厂以及存储IDM扩产有望在2026年开始加速，同时技术节点向先进制程以 及3D堆叠等方向迈进，上游国产设备商同步受益；4）消费电子端侧AI产品创新或加速换机周期带动产 业链受益。 本文转载自"智通财经"，智通财经编辑：刘家殷。 中信建投认为，四季度以来，全球宏观经济与地缘政治不确定性加剧，凸显了战略矿产资源在安全保障 与价格弹性方面的投资价值。基于当前供需格局、政策导向及产业趋势，铜、铝、黄金三大品种的中长 期配置逻辑清晰铜受益于矿端供应紧张与绿色经济需求拉动；铝受限于国内产能天花板，并受益于轻量 化及绿电需求；黄金则具备对冲风险 ...

Core Viewpoint - SanDisk is experiencing significant stock price growth, currently trading at approximately $210, but faces potential risks of a 50% decline due to market volatility and pricing pressures in the NAND sector [2][12]. Financial Performance - SanDisk reported approximately $7.4 billion in revenue for 2025, reflecting a modest growth of 10% amid stabilizing NAND prices [4]. - The stock is valued at around 16x forward earnings and 4x forward sales, indicating a premium valuation based on optimistic forecasts for the storage cycle extending into 2026 [5]. Market Dynamics - NAND pricing remains vulnerable, with potential supply increases from major competitors like Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron threatening recent pricing improvements [6]. - Margins are under pressure due to rising costs and yield challenges, particularly with the transition to 238-layer NAND [7]. - Increased competition in the enterprise SSD market from hyperscalers and lower-priced Chinese competitors is impacting SanDisk's market share [8]. Strategic Positioning - SanDisk maintains a strong position in consumer and OEM markets, benefiting from established distribution channels and partnerships [11]. - The company has implemented efficiency improvement initiatives that could enhance profitability if pricing remains stable [10]. Long-term Outlook - If the storage cycle remains constrained, SanDisk could sustain its pricing power into 2026, potentially stabilizing its current valuation [10][13]. - However, if NAND pricing softens or market share declines, the stock could face a significant downcycle, potentially dropping to around $110 [12].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the rapid rise of Xiangnon Chip Creation, a chip distributor, whose stock price surged sixfold in a few months due to the booming storage chip market driven by AI demand and server expansion. The company has become one of the top ten global chip distributors, but faces challenges related to profitability and supplier dependency [3][21][24]. Group 1: Stock Performance and Market Dynamics - Xiangnon's stock price increased from 22.88 yuan at the beginning of the year to around 204.57 yuan by November, with a total market value exceeding 900 billion yuan [4][21]. - The surge in stock price is attributed to the company's deep involvement in the storage sector, with storage products accounting for approximately 70% of its distribution business [3][4]. - The first wave of price increases began in April, with major manufacturers like Samsung and SK Hynix reducing production of DDR4 chips, leading to a tightening supply and subsequent price hikes [5][7]. Group 2: Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of the year, Xiangnon's revenue exceeded its total revenue for 2024, reaching 264 billion yuan, with significant year-on-year growth [19][21]. - The company's gross profit margin has been under pressure, dropping below 3%, the lowest in five years, despite revenue growth of 115.4% in 2024 [21][24]. - The operating costs increased by 63.37% year-on-year, outpacing revenue growth, indicating potential profitability issues [24][26]. Group 3: Company Background and Transformation - Xiangnon Chip Creation originated from a washing machine parts manufacturer and transformed into a semiconductor distributor after acquiring a controlling stake in a chip distribution company in 2019 [11][12]. - The company rebranded and shifted its focus to electronic component distribution, with distribution business accounting for nearly 97% of its revenue by 2024 [12][19]. - The acquisition of key supplier rights from major manufacturers like MediaTek and SK Hynix has been crucial for Xiangnon's growth trajectory [15][19]. Group 4: Risks and Challenges - The company faces significant risks due to its high dependency on a few suppliers, with SK Hynix accounting for 52.3% of its procurement [22][23]. - The concentration of revenue from a limited number of customers poses a risk, as nearly 90% of sales come from the top five clients [22][23]. - The cyclical nature of the storage industry introduces volatility in profit margins, with potential inventory devaluation risks if market conditions change [24][26].