半导体行业 超配（维持） AI 仍为创新主线，算力、存力、设备、先进封装等 多环节受益 投 资 策 略 资料来源：Wind，东莞证券研究所 本报告的风险等级为中高风险。 本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读末页声明。 半导体行业 2026 年上半年投资策略 2025 年 11 月 24 日 S0340521070002 电话：0769-22110619 邮箱： liumenglin@dgzq.com.cn S0340520060001 电话：0769-22119430 邮箱： chenweiguang@dgzq.com.cn 推荐 分析师：刘梦麟 SAC 执业证书编号： 投资要点： 板块业绩及走势：受益AI快速演进重塑半导体需求结构，半导体产 业在2025年实现新一轮增长，2025年前三季度营收、净利润同比提 高。2025年以来，申万半导体行业指数估值快速上行，年内走势跑 赢大盘，且各细分板块均录得正向涨幅。 分析师：陈伟光 SAC 执业证书编号： 算力：大模型加速落地推高算力规模，国产算力有望突破。近年人 工智能成为各国逐力焦点，境外对 ...

三星在供应急剧短缺之际将DDR5存储价格上调最高达60% 据媒体援引知情人士透露的消息称，此举是在三星电子决定推迟于10月份就存储芯片供应合同定价作出 正式公告之后所发生的，并补充表示，定价细节通常每月公布一次。 据媒体报道，知名半导体分销商Fusion Worldwide的总裁Tobey Gonnerman表示，三星电子在11月份报价 的被最广泛应用的32GB DDR5存储芯片模组合约价大幅跃升至239美元，远远高于9月份的149美元。这 类DDR5存储芯片被广泛用于AI服务器算力集群，以及某些高端个人计算机产品和其他高性能端侧设 备。 知情人士表示，这家韩国科技巨头还将16GB DDR5和128GB DDR5存储芯片模组的价格大幅上调约 50%，分别至135美元和1,194美元。知情人士表示，更大存储容量的64GB DDR5和96GB DDR5的价格 则大幅上涨了逾30%。 智通财经APP获悉，有媒体援引知情人士透露的消息报道称，全球最大规模存储芯片制造商——即来自 韩国的三星电子(Samsung Electronics)在本月将某些对于全球存储端至关重要存储芯片价格较9月份大幅 上调。知情人士透露，此次 ...

从2025年下半年开始，存储芯片的涨价潮就呈现出了加速态势。进入11月后，这波涨价潮不但未见减 弱，反而变得愈加疯狂。 短短一周之内，DDR5高性能存储芯片现货价格飙升了25%。三星、SK海力士等原厂甚至一度暂停报 价，这直接引发了市场恐慌性采购。摩根士丹利最新的研报数据显示，2025年第四季度的服务器DRAM （内存）报价已飙升近70%，NAND（闪存）合约价也上涨20-30%。 "内存涨价实在太多。" 雷军也在微博上回应Redmi K90定价太高，最主要是由上游存储成本太高导致。Redmi K90系列因存储 成本飙升全系涨价100-400元，不同存储版本价差从400元拉大至600元。小米集团总裁卢伟冰则表示， 上游成本压力已真实传导至新品定价，存储成本上涨也远高于预期，且会持续加剧。 摩根士丹利也发出明确信号：由AI驱动的内存超级周期不仅真实存在，而且其强度和持久性可能远超 市场想象。同时，SK海力士、三星等将凭借强大的定价权，迎来利润率扩张和盈利的飙升。相反，下 游的PC、手机和消费电子供应链将面临剧烈的成本压力和利润挤压。 涨价源头，科技公司的"算力军备竞赛" "我们正在见证一个前所未见的市场结构。" ...

Core Viewpoint - The rising demand for AI is creating significant opportunities and challenges in the NAND flash memory market, particularly for Chinese manufacturers like Yangtze Memory Technologies Co. (YMTC) [4][5]. NAND Price Surge - SanDisk, a leading NAND flash manufacturer, announced a price increase of up to 50% for NAND contracts due to overwhelming market demand, causing a ripple effect throughout the storage supply chain [4][6]. - Other manufacturers, including Micron and Samsung, have also raised prices following SanDisk's lead, indicating a strong demand for NAND products [6]. Impact on AI Server Production - The price hikes have led to module manufacturers like Transcend and Innodisk pausing shipments to reassess pricing, which could disrupt the production of AI servers for major companies like Oracle and Microsoft [4][6]. Market Demand and Projections - TrendForce predicts that AI server shipments will grow by over 20% year-on-year by 2026, with NAND usage in AI servers potentially three times that of traditional servers [6][7]. - The global NAND flash market exceeds $60 billion, dominated by a few major players with approximately 90% market share, leaving limited space for Chinese manufacturers [7]. Opportunities for Chinese Manufacturers - YMTC is positioned to capitalize on the current market dynamics, with plans to increase its monthly production capacity from 100,000 wafers to 150,000 by the end of 2025, aiming for a 15% global market share by 2028 [8]. - The company is also targeting the enterprise SSD market, which offers higher profit margins compared to consumer products [8]. Challenges in Entering the Enterprise Market - YMTC faces significant hurdles in obtaining necessary compatibility certifications from major platform providers and software vendors, which can take 6 to 12 months [10]. - The validation process for large-scale deployment of its products may take up to two years, despite having met technical standards [10]. Industry-Wide Implications - The opportunity for domestic alternatives extends to the entire supply chain, particularly in packaging and testing, with companies like Huatian Technology and Tongfu Microelectronics investing heavily in advanced packaging capabilities [12][13]. - The domestic semiconductor equipment and materials sector is also seeing rapid advancements, with companies like North Huachuang and Zhongwei making significant inroads into the market [14]. Current State of Domestic Production - Despite progress, the overall domestic production rate remains low, with semiconductor equipment localization at about 30% and photolithography equipment at 0-1% [15]. - The NAND market breakthrough could lead to substantial growth in the materials and equipment sectors, as domestic manufacturers seek to reduce reliance on foreign suppliers [16].

高盛直接将闪迪目标价翻倍！NAND供不应求将极大推动定价能力和利润率增长，这句话没毛病，却比电视上的广告更能让人起劲，今天就把来龙去脉说清 楚，别急着摇头，后面有料。 高盛把闪迪的"正常化每股收益"从7.80美元提升到14.00美元，再把估值倍数从18倍调到20倍，两个因素合起来，就把目标价翻了倍，这逻辑听着简单，算术 也漂亮。 高盛还大幅上调了未来几年EPS预测，2025年从2.88美元改为4.86美元，2026年从10.35美元到19.00美元，2027年从12.57美元到23.25美元，这样的涨幅让人 心慌。 11月10日，高盛发布研报，把闪迪目标价从140美元直接抬到280美元，评级仍是买入，这个动作像是把市场往前一推，干脆利落。 同一天，闪迪公布了2025年第三季度财报，营收23.1亿美元，毛利率29.9%，Non-GAAP每股收益1.22美元，数字比市场预期高出不少，整个数据像是开了 挂。 更猛的是它给出的2025年第四季度指引，营收中值26.0亿美元，毛利率中值高达42.0%，Non-GAAP每股收益中值3.20美元，这些数字像炸雷一样砸进市场。 高盛看了这些数字后认为，这不是偶然，这是整个NA ...

Core Insights - The article emphasizes a "storage crisis" emerging as a significant challenge in the AI landscape, shifting focus from GPU computing to memory and storage solutions [3][4] - The demand for high-bandwidth memory (HBM) is driving a competitive race among memory manufacturers, with potential implications for future technology wealth distribution [3][5] - The article identifies Micron and SanDisk as undervalued companies with strong fundamentals, presenting unique investment opportunities in the evolving storage market [3][5] Group 1: Storage Crisis and Market Dynamics - The AI industry's transition to large-scale models has created a bottleneck in storage, leading to inefficiencies in GPU utilization and increasing total cost of ownership (TCO) [4][6] - AI workloads require storage solutions with high capacity, bandwidth, and low latency, pushing the market towards structural growth in both bandwidth (HBM/DRAM) and capacity (NAND/SSD) [6][9] - The shift towards HBM is causing traditional DRAM supply constraints, with manufacturers reallocating resources to produce higher-margin HBM products, resulting in a significant price increase for DDR4 memory [9][10] Group 2: HBM and NAND Developments - The competition for HBM4 dominance is critical for memory manufacturers, with SK Hynix currently leading, while Micron and Samsung are in pursuit [11][12] - The rise of QLC NAND flash storage is being driven by the explosive data growth from AI applications, positioning it as a preferred choice for data centers [12][18] - CXL technology is enhancing memory capacity and bandwidth flexibility, addressing the memory wall issue in AI workloads, with over 200 companies joining the CXL alliance [12][13] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - Micron Technology (MU) is highlighted as an undervalued leader in AI memory, with strong growth potential driven by its HBM business and significant revenue growth [13][15] - Micron's DRAM revenue is projected to grow significantly, with estimates showing a year-over-year increase of nearly 69% in Q4 2025 [15][16] - SanDisk (SNDK) is positioned as a key player in the NAND flash market, benefiting from its strategic focus on enterprise SSDs and AI-driven demand [18][19] Group 4: Additional Investment Candidates - Other potential investment opportunities include Western Digital (WDC), Intel (INTC), and NVIDIA (NVDA), which are positioned to benefit from the AI storage ecosystem [21][22][24] - ETFs like iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) and VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) provide diversified exposure to the semiconductor and storage sectors, mitigating risks associated with individual stocks [25][26] Conclusion - The article concludes that the storage industry is entering a multi-year super cycle driven by AI demand, with a shift from cyclical to structural growth patterns [27] - Investors are encouraged to focus on companies that effectively manage capital allocation and achieve breakthroughs in high-end storage solutions, as the current market presents a favorable environment for investment in AI storage leaders [27]

Core Viewpoint - The storage industry is experiencing a significant price increase driven by supply constraints and strong demand, particularly from AI applications, which is expected to continue until at least the end of 2026 [2][3][4]. Part 1: Storage Super Cycle - The storage super cycle is still in its early stages, with DRAM prices increasing unexpectedly, particularly DDR5 PC memory prices rising by 25-30% quarter-on-quarter, and server DRAM prices increasing by 28-33% [3]. - NAND prices are also strong, with enterprise SSD contract prices up 25-30% and eMMC/UFS prices up 20-25%, while 3D NAND wafers have seen a quarter-on-quarter increase of 65-70% due to capacity constraints [3]. - Current NAND average selling prices are approximately $0.08-$0.09 per GB, with a potential increase of 40%-60% to reach the previous cycle peak of $0.13 [3]. Part 2: Supply Constraints - Module manufacturers and upstream chip suppliers are actively limiting supply to maintain price stability during this upcycle [4]. - Major cloud service providers like Microsoft and Amazon are attempting to secure long-term agreements for capacity expansion but have not yet reached consensus with suppliers, leading to a supply-demand gap expected to last until at least the end of 2026 [4]. Part 3: AI-Driven Growth - The demand for high-capacity eSSD from AI servers is a core growth driver, with storage capacity needs for AI servers being 5-8 times that of regular servers [5]. - The proliferation of edge AI devices is further driving the upgrade of consumer storage, transitioning the storage industry from a "consumer-led" to a "enterprise + AI-led" growth model [5]. Company-Specific Advantages - Jiangbo Long is expanding its enterprise business, with enterprise SSD revenue expected to rise from 15% in 2024 to 28% in 2026, significantly boosting overall gross margins from 18% in 2025 to 25% [6]. - The company has achieved a 12%-15% cost reduction by developing its own storage controllers, enhancing product competitiveness and supporting higher profit margins [7]. - Jiangbo Long has established long-term partnerships with key chip suppliers like Samsung and Micron, ensuring stable wafer supply and maintaining over 70% capacity utilization in a tightening supply environment [8]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue and profit forecasts have been significantly raised, with projected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 now at 240.59 billion, 382.00 billion, and 452.79 billion yuan respectively, and net profit forecasts adjusted to 14.82 billion, 43.08 billion, and 51.55 billion yuan [9]. - The embedded storage business is expected to benefit from AI edge device demand, with projected revenue of 183.25 billion yuan in 2026, a 77% year-on-year increase [10]. Valuation Logic - The target price is based on a residual income model, with an implied 11x price-to-book ratio for 2026, aligning with the global trend of valuation reassessment in the storage sector due to the AI super cycle [11]. Scenario Analysis - In the base case scenario, the target price is set at 325 yuan, assuming a continued supply-demand gap and stable AI-driven demand growth [12]. - In an optimistic scenario, the target price could reach 435 yuan, driven by a 90% year-on-year increase in AI server shipments and significant growth in enterprise SSD demand [14][15]. - In a pessimistic scenario, the target price could drop to 90 yuan due to weak demand and excess supply, with a projected decline in smartphone and PC shipments [17][18]. Investment Strategy - The report maintains an overweight investment rating for Jiangbo Long, highlighting its position as a key beneficiary of the storage super cycle, supported by ongoing supply constraints, enterprise business expansion, and AI-driven structural demand [19].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the semiconductor industry [1]. Core Insights - The semiconductor industry continues to experience steady growth, with domestic memory manufacturers showing impressive performance in Q3 2025. The industry's revenue reached 174.18 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.07%, while net profit attributable to shareholders grew by 48.93% [3][6]. - Global semiconductor sales increased by 25.1% year-on-year in September 2025, marking the 23rd consecutive month of growth, with a month-on-month increase of 7.0%. The forecast for 2025 indicates an 11.2% year-on-year growth in global semiconductor sales [3][6]. - Major cloud service providers in North America, including Google, Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon, significantly increased their capital expenditures, totaling $96.4 billion in Q3 2025, a 67% year-on-year increase [7][3]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Performance in October 2025 - The semiconductor industry underperformed relative to the CSI 300 index, with a decline of 6.18% in October 2025, while the CSI 300 remained flat. Year-to-date, the semiconductor industry has risen by 45.44% [12][3]. - The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose by 13.48% in October 2025, outperforming the Nasdaq 100, which increased by 4.77% [12][18]. 2. Q3 2025 Industry Summary - The semiconductor industry showed robust growth in Q3 2025, with a revenue of 1741.84 billion yuan and a net profit of 394.68 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6.07% and 48.93%, respectively [3][6]. - Domestic memory manufacturers, including Jiangbolong and Demingli, turned profitable in Q3 2025, with significant revenue and profit growth expected in Q4 due to rising memory prices [3][6]. 3. Capital Expenditure and Price Trends - North American cloud service providers are increasing their capital expenditures, with a combined total of $96.4 billion in Q3 2025, indicating strong demand for AI computing hardware infrastructure [7][3]. - The prices of DRAM and NAND Flash memory saw significant increases in October 2025, with DRAM prices expected to rise by 18-23% in Q4 2025 [3][6].

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs has raised the target price for SanDisk to $280, citing a persistent supply-demand imbalance in the NAND flash memory market that is expected to last until 2026, granting manufacturers significant pricing power and leading to a surge in profit margins [1][3][5]. Financial Performance - SanDisk's Q3 performance exceeded expectations, with revenue reaching $2.31 billion, surpassing Goldman Sachs' forecast of $2.21 billion and the market's expectation of $2.17 billion [7]. - The gross margin was reported at 29.9%, higher than the market expectation of 29.3% [8]. - Non-GAAP EPS was $1.22, significantly exceeding the market expectation of $0.90, representing a 35.6% increase [8]. Future Guidance - For Q4 2025, SanDisk's revenue guidance is set at a midpoint of $2.6 billion, compared to the market expectation of $2.37 billion [9]. - The gross margin guidance is projected at 42.0%, well above the previous quarter's 29.9% and the market expectation of 33.5%, indicating an increase of 850 basis points [9]. - Non-GAAP EPS guidance is set at $3.20, nearly 1.7 times the market expectation of $1.92 [9]. NAND Market Dynamics - The NAND flash memory market is experiencing a fundamental shift towards a sustained supply-demand imbalance, expected to last until 2026 [10][11]. - The demand for high-end memory products, driven by AI server requirements, has led to a prioritization of production capacity for these high-margin products, resulting in a shortage of NAND flash for consumer SSDs [11]. - Recent reports indicate that SanDisk has raised its NAND flash contract prices by 50% in November, with DRAM prices soaring by 171.8% year-on-year [11]. Profitability Outlook - The supply-demand imbalance translates into pricing power, which is expected to drive profit margins significantly higher [12]. - Goldman Sachs has raised its EPS forecasts for SanDisk by an average of 79% for the coming years, with 2025 EPS projected to increase from $2.88 to $4.86, a 69.2% rise [13]. - For 2026 and 2027, EPS forecasts have been raised to $19.00 and $23.25, reflecting increases of 83.6% and 85.0%, respectively [14][15]. Target Price Adjustment - Based on the optimistic outlook, Goldman Sachs has doubled its target price for SanDisk from $140 to $280, supported by significant adjustments in earnings forecasts and valuation multiples [17]. - The normalized EPS used for valuation has been increased from $7.80 to $14.00, and the P/E ratio applied to SanDisk has been raised from 18x to 20x [17]. Investment Rating - Given the substantial upside potential relative to market expectations, Goldman Sachs maintains a "Buy" rating for SanDisk [19].

Core Viewpoint - Longi Technology reported a revenue of 28.669 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 14.78%, while net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 11.39% to 0.954 billion yuan due to rising raw material costs and increased financial expenses [1][2]. Revenue and Profit Summary - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 10.064 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 6.03% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 8.56% [2]. - The gross profit margin for Q3 2025 reached 14.25%, an increase of 2.02 percentage points year-on-year, contributing to a net profit margin increase of 1.94 percentage points to 4.80% [2]. - The net profit for Q3 2025 was 0.483 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 5.66% and a significant quarter-on-quarter increase of 80.60% [2]. Business Growth and Structural Optimization - The company has seen significant growth in high-growth sectors, with revenues from computing electronics, automotive electronics, and industrial and medical electronics increasing by 69.5%, 31.3%, and 40.7% year-on-year, respectively [3]. - The automotive electronics segment has successfully integrated power module packaging and automotive-grade MCU technology, leading to strategic projects with major global clients [3]. - The acquisition of 80% of Shengdie Semiconductor has allowed the company to leverage over 20 years of storage packaging technology, positioning it well for the enterprise SSD market [3]. R&D Investment and Future Growth - R&D expenses for the first three quarters of 2025 reached 1.54 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.7%, focusing on key technologies such as glass substrates and high-density SiP [4]. - The company is gradually launching new high-end capacities in automotive electronics and wafer-level projects, enhancing its delivery capabilities in high-value markets [4]. - The synergy between technological breakthroughs and capacity releases is expected to solidify the company's competitive edge in advanced packaging and capture strategic opportunities in AI and automotive electronics markets [4].