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雅迪控股:政策驱动景气度上行,龙头盈利修复可期-20250610
GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES· 2025-06-10 05:48
Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for Yadea Holdings [3][5]. Core Views - The industry is expected to experience a resurgence in demand driven by the "old-for-new" policy and the implementation of new national standards, with projected sales of 56 million and 61.75 million units in 2025 and 2026 respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth of 12% and 10% [1][40]. - Yadea and Aima dominate the market, with a combined market share of approximately 47% in 2024, indicating strong competitive advantages in pricing and distribution channels [2][42]. - The company is anticipated to recover its sales and profitability rapidly following a period of aggressive expansion and subsequent adjustments in 2024, aided by the launch of new products and the easing of channel pressures [3][19]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The electric two-wheeler industry is poised for growth due to favorable policies and changing consumer demands, with the new national standards set to enhance safety and performance requirements [10][34]. - The "old-for-new" policy has shown significant results, with over 334,100 units exchanged by April 2025, indicating strong consumer interest and government support [38][40]. Company Analysis - Yadea Holdings has a robust product lineup, including the Classic, Modern, and Crown series, catering to various market segments with a focus on quality and innovation [21][19]. - The company has experienced fluctuations in revenue, with a projected revenue of 38.34 billion RMB in 2025, rebounding from a decline in 2024 [4][19]. - Profitability is expected to improve significantly, with net profit forecasts of 2.93 billion, 3.55 billion, and 4.11 billion RMB for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting a recovery from previous lows [4][3]. Financial Projections - The report outlines financial forecasts with a projected revenue growth rate of 35.8% in 2025, followed by more moderate growth in subsequent years [4][19]. - The company's earnings per share (EPS) is expected to rise from 0.94 RMB in 2025 to 1.32 RMB in 2027, indicating a positive outlook for shareholder returns [4][3].