Core Viewpoint - Cathay Securities maintains an "Accumulate" rating for Samsonite (01910), projecting net profit for 2025-2027 at $270 million, $300 million, and $340 million, reflecting year-on-year changes of -22.3%, +12.2%, and +11.6% respectively, with a target price of HKD 24.09 based on a 15X PE for 2026 [1] Group 1 - The company plans to advance its dual listing in the U.S. through American Depositary Shares (ADS), with the issuance authorization valid until the annual shareholders' meeting on June 4, 2026 [1] - The new shares will be issued at a discount of no more than 15% from the last closing price, and no more than 20% from the benchmark price [1] - Proceeds from the issuance will primarily be used for operational and capital expenditures, repaying existing debts, repurchasing ordinary shares, and funding potential acquisitions [1] Group 2 - The dual listing aims to enhance global trading liquidity, making it easier for U.S. and global investors to access the company's shares and create long-term value for shareholders [2] - The maximum limit for the new issuance is approximately 138 million shares, accounting for 9.97% of the total issued shares after excluding treasury stock [2] - Following the dual listing, the company plans to cancel approximately 79.31 million treasury shares, resulting in an estimated net dilution impact of about 4.0% after the cancellation [2] Group 3 - The company has appointed Thomas R. Pizzuti as the new Group CFO starting February 2, 2026, who previously worked at KPMG [3] - Luciano Severo Rodembusch will become the president of the TUMI brand around April 1, 2026, bringing extensive experience from his previous roles at Pandora and Tiffany & Co. [3] Group 4 - The company expects continued improvement in Q4 2025 performance, with all brands and regions showing growth compared to Q2 [4] - TUMI achieved positive growth across all regions, and despite a high base in Q4 2025, the company anticipates maintaining revenue growth year-on-year [4] - The company predicts a potential refresh cycle for luggage in 2026, with ongoing improvements in the Asia-Pacific and North American markets positively impacting profit margins [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [7] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of $3.6 billion in Q1 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 7.3%, primarily due to weakened demand in Asia and North America [1] - Adjusted EBITDA profit was $130 million, down 20.8% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to shareholders was $48.2 million, down 41.9% year-on-year, indicating profit pressure under negative operating leverage [1] - The company anticipates revenues of $3.6 billion, $3.7 billion, and $3.9 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits of $300 million, $347.8 million, and $397.2 million, reflecting a temporary performance pressure due to tariff policies and macroeconomic fluctuations [5] Regional Performance - In Q1 2025, revenue from Asia was $310 million, down 9.7% year-on-year, while North America generated $260 million, down 8.3% year-on-year. Europe, however, showed resilience with revenue of $180 million, flat year-on-year, and a 4.4% increase in fixed exchange rates [2] - The Indian market benefited from strategic adjustments, showing a fixed exchange rate revenue increase of 2.6%, while South Korea and China faced declines due to overall demand weakness [2] Brand Performance - Revenue by brand in Q1 2025 was $410 million for Samsonite, $190 million for TUMI, and $130 million for American Tourister, with TUMI showing relative resilience with a year-on-year decline of only 3.7% [3] - The company opened 9 new stores, bringing the total to 1,128, demonstrating confidence in growth despite a weakening retail environment [3] Profitability and Cost Structure - Gross margin for Q1 2025 was 59.4%, a decrease of 1.1 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to a lower proportion of high-margin sales from Asia [4] - The adjusted EBITDA margin was 16.0%, down 2.7 percentage points year-on-year, indicating pressure on profitability due to rising expense ratios [4] Financial Forecast and Valuation - The report projects a P/E ratio of 9, 8, and 7 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting the company's valuation amidst current market conditions [5] - The anticipated net profit for 2025 is $300 million, representing a 13.1% decline from the previous year, but expected to recover with a 15.8% increase in 2026 [11]