新秀丽(01910):美国双重上市估值重估潜力遭忽略,评级"买入" 瑞银华宝 瑞银近期收到不少投资者查询，询问新秀丽自2月中旬公布美国双重上市进展以来，其股价疲弱(下跌6%) 的根本原因。瑞银从投资者反馈中得悉，股价疲弱或归因于集团对高达15%的发行价折让，以及相关股份稀释 的担忧，认为忧虑掩盖了集团在美国上市后，可能获得与全球同业看齐的估值重估潜力。 瑞银近期又从全球航空公司、线上旅行社、酒店及奢侈品公司公布的业绩中，看到相对正面的启示，上述 公司业绩或对集团收入趋势具有指标性意义。而在过去七个季度中，新秀丽的收入趋势与LVMH高度相关。 瑞银发布研报称，预计近期美国最高法院对美国关税合法性的裁决及之后的关税调整，应能在未来五个月 内，有效降低新秀丽(18.7,-0.54,-2.81%)(01910)面对的关税率约低至中单位数百分比;料其美国批发客户或 利用该窗口期，在旅游需求强劲的背景下补充库存，从而推动集团在美国市场的收入复苏;予该股目标价24.8 港元，评级"买入"。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Samsonite (01910) shares rose over 4%, currently at HKD 20.36 with a trading volume of HKD 100 million, driven by positive analyst outlooks on the Chinese consumer sector and high-end market recovery [1] Group 1: Analyst Insights - Citi's recent report highlights that the focus on the Chinese consumer sector will shift towards opportunities in niche markets, with high-end consumption benefiting from relaxed monetary policy, improved stock markets, and increased offshore financing [1] - Goldman Sachs noted that the management's outlook during the latest earnings call appears more optimistic compared to August, anticipating improved net sales growth in Q4 due to new product launches and increased advertising efforts before the peak season [1] - Goldman Sachs also mentioned that potential dual listing in the U.S. next year and share buybacks to mitigate dilution effects could serve as catalysts for further valuation reassessment of the stock [1]

Core Viewpoint - Samsonite's stock has risen over 3%, reflecting positive sentiment driven by optimistic management outlook and anticipated sales growth in Q4 due to new product launches and increased advertising efforts [1] Group 1: Management Outlook - Goldman Sachs noted that the latest management call showed a more optimistic business outlook compared to the August earnings call, expecting improved net sales growth in Q4 compared to Q3 [1] - UBS highlighted that Samsonite's revenue is regaining momentum, with the impact of U.S. tariffs appearing milder than expected, and the company has multiple levers to mitigate tariff impacts [1] Group 2: Financial Projections - Goldman Sachs believes that the better-than-expected Q3 performance and positive management outlook will benefit short-term stock sentiment [1] - UBS forecasts an 8% year-on-year growth in adjusted EBITDA for the company next year, supported by a 5% revenue growth and operational leverage [1] - Daiwa raised its earnings per share forecast for Samsonite from 7% to 16% for 2025 to 2027, citing changes in product mix leading to more resilient gross margins [1] Group 3: Future Catalysts - Potential dual listing in the U.S. next year and share buybacks to alleviate dilution effects are seen as catalysts for further valuation reassessment of the stock [1] - The anticipated new revenue growth cycle and potential U.S. listing could attract more global investors, making the target price of 13 times next year's forecasted P/E ratio achievable [1]

Core Viewpoint - Samsonite's stock has risen over 3%, reflecting positive sentiment driven by optimistic management outlook and anticipated sales growth in Q4 [1] Group 1: Company Performance - Goldman Sachs reports that Samsonite's management has a more optimistic view on business prospects compared to the August earnings call, expecting improved net sales growth in Q4 due to new product launches and increased advertising efforts [1] - UBS indicates that Samsonite's revenue is regaining momentum, with the impact of U.S. tariffs appearing milder than expected, and the company has multiple levers to mitigate tariff impacts [1] - Daiwa has raised its earnings per share forecast for Samsonite for 2025 to 2027 by 7% to 16%, citing changes in product mix leading to more resilient gross margins and gradual increases in market spending [1] Group 2: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Goldman Sachs believes that the better-than-expected Q3 performance and positive management outlook will benefit short-term stock sentiment [1] - The potential for a dual listing in the U.S. next year and share buybacks to alleviate dilution effects are seen as catalysts for further valuation reassessment of the stock [1] - UBS forecasts an 8% year-on-year growth in adjusted EBITDA for the company next year, benefiting from a 5% revenue growth and operational leverage [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [7] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of $3.6 billion in Q1 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 7.3%, primarily due to weakened demand in Asia and North America [1] - Adjusted EBITDA profit was $130 million, down 20.8% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to shareholders was $48.2 million, down 41.9% year-on-year, indicating profit pressure under negative operating leverage [1] - The company anticipates revenues of $3.6 billion, $3.7 billion, and $3.9 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits of $300 million, $347.8 million, and $397.2 million, reflecting a temporary performance pressure due to tariff policies and macroeconomic fluctuations [5] Regional Performance - In Q1 2025, revenue from Asia was $310 million, down 9.7% year-on-year, while North America generated $260 million, down 8.3% year-on-year. Europe, however, showed resilience with revenue of $180 million, flat year-on-year, and a 4.4% increase in fixed exchange rates [2] - The Indian market benefited from strategic adjustments, showing a fixed exchange rate revenue increase of 2.6%, while South Korea and China faced declines due to overall demand weakness [2] Brand Performance - Revenue by brand in Q1 2025 was $410 million for Samsonite, $190 million for TUMI, and $130 million for American Tourister, with TUMI showing relative resilience with a year-on-year decline of only 3.7% [3] - The company opened 9 new stores, bringing the total to 1,128, demonstrating confidence in growth despite a weakening retail environment [3] Profitability and Cost Structure - Gross margin for Q1 2025 was 59.4%, a decrease of 1.1 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to a lower proportion of high-margin sales from Asia [4] - The adjusted EBITDA margin was 16.0%, down 2.7 percentage points year-on-year, indicating pressure on profitability due to rising expense ratios [4] Financial Forecast and Valuation - The report projects a P/E ratio of 9, 8, and 7 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting the company's valuation amidst current market conditions [5] - The anticipated net profit for 2025 is $300 million, representing a 13.1% decline from the previous year, but expected to recover with a 15.8% increase in 2026 [11]