新秀丽(01910)涨超4%，截至发稿，涨4.14%，报20.36港元，成交额1亿港元。 高盛此前指出，新秀丽管理层相较8月业绩电话会议，最新一次电话会议对业务展望看来更为乐观，并 预期9月推出的新产品及进入旺季前加码广告活动推动下，第四季度净销售增长将较第三季度改善。高 盛认为，新秀丽明年潜在的美国双重上市，以及股份回购以减轻稀释影响，将成为该股未来进一步价值 重估的催化剂。 消息面上，里昂近期研报称，展望中国消费板块将聚焦于细分领域的发展机遇，以及高端消费市道受惠 于货币政策放松、股市改善及离岸融资增加的复苏进展，预期居民消费情绪与CPI数据将维持温和，预 期企业将捕捉细分市场规模化、全球化扩张及高端消费复苏的机会，列新秀丽为三大首选股之一。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Samsonite's stock has risen over 3%, reflecting positive sentiment driven by optimistic management outlook and anticipated sales growth in Q4 due to new product launches and increased advertising efforts [1] Group 1: Management Outlook - Goldman Sachs noted that the latest management call showed a more optimistic business outlook compared to the August earnings call, expecting improved net sales growth in Q4 compared to Q3 [1] - UBS highlighted that Samsonite's revenue is regaining momentum, with the impact of U.S. tariffs appearing milder than expected, and the company has multiple levers to mitigate tariff impacts [1] Group 2: Financial Projections - Goldman Sachs believes that the better-than-expected Q3 performance and positive management outlook will benefit short-term stock sentiment [1] - UBS forecasts an 8% year-on-year growth in adjusted EBITDA for the company next year, supported by a 5% revenue growth and operational leverage [1] - Daiwa raised its earnings per share forecast for Samsonite from 7% to 16% for 2025 to 2027, citing changes in product mix leading to more resilient gross margins [1] Group 3: Future Catalysts - Potential dual listing in the U.S. next year and share buybacks to alleviate dilution effects are seen as catalysts for further valuation reassessment of the stock [1] - The anticipated new revenue growth cycle and potential U.S. listing could attract more global investors, making the target price of 13 times next year's forecasted P/E ratio achievable [1]

Core Viewpoint - Samsonite's stock has risen over 3%, reflecting positive sentiment driven by optimistic management outlook and anticipated sales growth in Q4 [1] Group 1: Company Performance - Goldman Sachs reports that Samsonite's management has a more optimistic view on business prospects compared to the August earnings call, expecting improved net sales growth in Q4 due to new product launches and increased advertising efforts [1] - UBS indicates that Samsonite's revenue is regaining momentum, with the impact of U.S. tariffs appearing milder than expected, and the company has multiple levers to mitigate tariff impacts [1] - Daiwa has raised its earnings per share forecast for Samsonite for 2025 to 2027 by 7% to 16%, citing changes in product mix leading to more resilient gross margins and gradual increases in market spending [1] Group 2: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Goldman Sachs believes that the better-than-expected Q3 performance and positive management outlook will benefit short-term stock sentiment [1] - The potential for a dual listing in the U.S. next year and share buybacks to alleviate dilution effects are seen as catalysts for further valuation reassessment of the stock [1] - UBS forecasts an 8% year-on-year growth in adjusted EBITDA for the company next year, benefiting from a 5% revenue growth and operational leverage [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [7] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of $3.6 billion in Q1 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 7.3%, primarily due to weakened demand in Asia and North America [1] - Adjusted EBITDA profit was $130 million, down 20.8% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to shareholders was $48.2 million, down 41.9% year-on-year, indicating profit pressure under negative operating leverage [1] - The company anticipates revenues of $3.6 billion, $3.7 billion, and $3.9 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits of $300 million, $347.8 million, and $397.2 million, reflecting a temporary performance pressure due to tariff policies and macroeconomic fluctuations [5] Regional Performance - In Q1 2025, revenue from Asia was $310 million, down 9.7% year-on-year, while North America generated $260 million, down 8.3% year-on-year. Europe, however, showed resilience with revenue of $180 million, flat year-on-year, and a 4.4% increase in fixed exchange rates [2] - The Indian market benefited from strategic adjustments, showing a fixed exchange rate revenue increase of 2.6%, while South Korea and China faced declines due to overall demand weakness [2] Brand Performance - Revenue by brand in Q1 2025 was $410 million for Samsonite, $190 million for TUMI, and $130 million for American Tourister, with TUMI showing relative resilience with a year-on-year decline of only 3.7% [3] - The company opened 9 new stores, bringing the total to 1,128, demonstrating confidence in growth despite a weakening retail environment [3] Profitability and Cost Structure - Gross margin for Q1 2025 was 59.4%, a decrease of 1.1 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to a lower proportion of high-margin sales from Asia [4] - The adjusted EBITDA margin was 16.0%, down 2.7 percentage points year-on-year, indicating pressure on profitability due to rising expense ratios [4] Financial Forecast and Valuation - The report projects a P/E ratio of 9, 8, and 7 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting the company's valuation amidst current market conditions [5] - The anticipated net profit for 2025 is $300 million, representing a 13.1% decline from the previous year, but expected to recover with a 15.8% increase in 2026 [11]