Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][19] Core Insights - The company experienced a positive revenue growth in Q4 2025, with a revenue of $963 million, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.9% on a currency-neutral basis [3][9] - The company expects sales net revenue to remain flat year-on-year in Q1 2026 due to the impact of the Middle East conflict, but anticipates potential positive growth in subsequent quarters [3][9] Financial Summary - Total revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2024A: $3,589 million - 2025A: $3,498 million - 2026E: $3,559 million - 2027E: $3,725 million - 2028E: $3,901 million - The company’s net profit is projected to be: - 2024A: $346 million - 2025A: $289 million - 2026E: $294 million - 2027E: $321 million - 2028E: $347 million - The company’s PE ratio is expected to decrease from 11.75 in 2024A to 8.11 in 2028E [5][11] Regional Performance - In Q4 2025, the Asia region showed strong growth with a year-on-year revenue increase of 5.1%, while North America experienced a decline of 2.8%, which improved to a growth of 8.2% when excluding Mexico [9][11] - The company’s brand performance in Q4 2025 showed TUMI achieving stable growth, while Samsonite and American Tourister improved their growth rates compared to Q3 [9][11] Future Outlook - The company plans to continue investing in product innovation and marketing to strengthen its competitive advantage [9][11] - The international complex situation will need to be monitored closely as it may impact future sales [3][9]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to Samsonite (01910) with a target price of HKD 24.8 [1] Core Insights - The report anticipates that the recent U.S. Supreme Court ruling on the legality of tariffs and subsequent adjustments will effectively reduce the tariff rate faced by Samsonite to a low single-digit percentage within the next five months [1] - It is expected that Samsonite's U.S. wholesale customers will take advantage of this window period to replenish inventory, which will drive revenue recovery in the U.S. market amid strong travel demand [1] - Concerns regarding a potential 15% discount on the issuance price and related share dilution have contributed to the stock's weakness since mid-February, overshadowing the potential for a valuation reassessment in line with global peers following the U.S. listing [1] - Positive indicators have been observed from the performance of global airlines, online travel agencies, hotels, and luxury goods companies, suggesting a favorable revenue trend for Samsonite [1] - Over the past seven quarters, Samsonite's revenue trend has shown a high correlation with LVMH [1]

Core Viewpoint - Samsonite (01910) shares rose over 4%, currently at HKD 20.36 with a trading volume of HKD 100 million, driven by positive analyst outlooks on the Chinese consumer sector and high-end market recovery [1] Group 1: Analyst Insights - Citi's recent report highlights that the focus on the Chinese consumer sector will shift towards opportunities in niche markets, with high-end consumption benefiting from relaxed monetary policy, improved stock markets, and increased offshore financing [1] - Goldman Sachs noted that the management's outlook during the latest earnings call appears more optimistic compared to August, anticipating improved net sales growth in Q4 due to new product launches and increased advertising efforts before the peak season [1] - Goldman Sachs also mentioned that potential dual listing in the U.S. next year and share buybacks to mitigate dilution effects could serve as catalysts for further valuation reassessment of the stock [1]

Core Viewpoint - Samsonite's stock has risen over 3%, reflecting positive sentiment driven by optimistic management outlook and anticipated sales growth in Q4 due to new product launches and increased advertising efforts [1] Group 1: Management Outlook - Goldman Sachs noted that the latest management call showed a more optimistic business outlook compared to the August earnings call, expecting improved net sales growth in Q4 compared to Q3 [1] - UBS highlighted that Samsonite's revenue is regaining momentum, with the impact of U.S. tariffs appearing milder than expected, and the company has multiple levers to mitigate tariff impacts [1] Group 2: Financial Projections - Goldman Sachs believes that the better-than-expected Q3 performance and positive management outlook will benefit short-term stock sentiment [1] - UBS forecasts an 8% year-on-year growth in adjusted EBITDA for the company next year, supported by a 5% revenue growth and operational leverage [1] - Daiwa raised its earnings per share forecast for Samsonite from 7% to 16% for 2025 to 2027, citing changes in product mix leading to more resilient gross margins [1] Group 3: Future Catalysts - Potential dual listing in the U.S. next year and share buybacks to alleviate dilution effects are seen as catalysts for further valuation reassessment of the stock [1] - The anticipated new revenue growth cycle and potential U.S. listing could attract more global investors, making the target price of 13 times next year's forecasted P/E ratio achievable [1]

Core Viewpoint - Samsonite's stock has risen over 3%, reflecting positive sentiment driven by optimistic management outlook and anticipated sales growth in Q4 [1] Group 1: Company Performance - Goldman Sachs reports that Samsonite's management has a more optimistic view on business prospects compared to the August earnings call, expecting improved net sales growth in Q4 due to new product launches and increased advertising efforts [1] - UBS indicates that Samsonite's revenue is regaining momentum, with the impact of U.S. tariffs appearing milder than expected, and the company has multiple levers to mitigate tariff impacts [1] - Daiwa has raised its earnings per share forecast for Samsonite for 2025 to 2027 by 7% to 16%, citing changes in product mix leading to more resilient gross margins and gradual increases in market spending [1] Group 2: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Goldman Sachs believes that the better-than-expected Q3 performance and positive management outlook will benefit short-term stock sentiment [1] - The potential for a dual listing in the U.S. next year and share buybacks to alleviate dilution effects are seen as catalysts for further valuation reassessment of the stock [1] - UBS forecasts an 8% year-on-year growth in adjusted EBITDA for the company next year, benefiting from a 5% revenue growth and operational leverage [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [7] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of $3.6 billion in Q1 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 7.3%, primarily due to weakened demand in Asia and North America [1] - Adjusted EBITDA profit was $130 million, down 20.8% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to shareholders was $48.2 million, down 41.9% year-on-year, indicating profit pressure under negative operating leverage [1] - The company anticipates revenues of $3.6 billion, $3.7 billion, and $3.9 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits of $300 million, $347.8 million, and $397.2 million, reflecting a temporary performance pressure due to tariff policies and macroeconomic fluctuations [5] Regional Performance - In Q1 2025, revenue from Asia was $310 million, down 9.7% year-on-year, while North America generated $260 million, down 8.3% year-on-year. Europe, however, showed resilience with revenue of $180 million, flat year-on-year, and a 4.4% increase in fixed exchange rates [2] - The Indian market benefited from strategic adjustments, showing a fixed exchange rate revenue increase of 2.6%, while South Korea and China faced declines due to overall demand weakness [2] Brand Performance - Revenue by brand in Q1 2025 was $410 million for Samsonite, $190 million for TUMI, and $130 million for American Tourister, with TUMI showing relative resilience with a year-on-year decline of only 3.7% [3] - The company opened 9 new stores, bringing the total to 1,128, demonstrating confidence in growth despite a weakening retail environment [3] Profitability and Cost Structure - Gross margin for Q1 2025 was 59.4%, a decrease of 1.1 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to a lower proportion of high-margin sales from Asia [4] - The adjusted EBITDA margin was 16.0%, down 2.7 percentage points year-on-year, indicating pressure on profitability due to rising expense ratios [4] Financial Forecast and Valuation - The report projects a P/E ratio of 9, 8, and 7 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting the company's valuation amidst current market conditions [5] - The anticipated net profit for 2025 is $300 million, representing a 13.1% decline from the previous year, but expected to recover with a 15.8% increase in 2026 [11]