Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [7] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of $3.6 billion in Q1 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 7.3%, primarily due to weakened demand in Asia and North America [1] - Adjusted EBITDA profit was $130 million, down 20.8% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to shareholders was $48.2 million, down 41.9% year-on-year, indicating profit pressure under negative operating leverage [1] - The company anticipates revenues of $3.6 billion, $3.7 billion, and $3.9 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits of $300 million, $347.8 million, and $397.2 million, reflecting a temporary performance pressure due to tariff policies and macroeconomic fluctuations [5] Regional Performance - In Q1 2025, revenue from Asia was $310 million, down 9.7% year-on-year, while North America generated $260 million, down 8.3% year-on-year. Europe, however, showed resilience with revenue of $180 million, flat year-on-year, and a 4.4% increase in fixed exchange rates [2] - The Indian market benefited from strategic adjustments, showing a fixed exchange rate revenue increase of 2.6%, while South Korea and China faced declines due to overall demand weakness [2] Brand Performance - Revenue by brand in Q1 2025 was $410 million for Samsonite, $190 million for TUMI, and $130 million for American Tourister, with TUMI showing relative resilience with a year-on-year decline of only 3.7% [3] - The company opened 9 new stores, bringing the total to 1,128, demonstrating confidence in growth despite a weakening retail environment [3] Profitability and Cost Structure - Gross margin for Q1 2025 was 59.4%, a decrease of 1.1 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to a lower proportion of high-margin sales from Asia [4] - The adjusted EBITDA margin was 16.0%, down 2.7 percentage points year-on-year, indicating pressure on profitability due to rising expense ratios [4] Financial Forecast and Valuation - The report projects a P/E ratio of 9, 8, and 7 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting the company's valuation amidst current market conditions [5] - The anticipated net profit for 2025 is $300 million, representing a 13.1% decline from the previous year, but expected to recover with a 15.8% increase in 2026 [11]

Core Viewpoint - The demand for domestic travel during the 2025 Labor Day holiday is expected to exceed 350 million trips, representing a year-on-year growth of over 15% [1][2][8] Group 1: Domestic Travel Demand - The Ministry of Culture and Tourism predicts that domestic tourism during the Labor Day holiday will surpass 350 million trips, with a year-on-year increase of over 15% [1][2] - The first three days of the holiday saw a total of 840 million cross-regional travelers, a year-on-year increase of 4.9%, with civil aviation and railway passenger volumes growing by 12.5% and 10.5% respectively [2][6] - The longer holiday period and the ability to combine days off have led to a broader travel range and increased travel volume compared to the Qingming Festival [2][6] Group 2: Civil Aviation Performance - Daily average passenger volume for civil aviation reached 219,200, marking a historical high and a year-on-year increase of 12.5% [3][8] - The average ticket price is expected to decline by no more than 5% year-on-year, with effective measures to curb price drops during the holiday [4][8] - The utilization rate of narrow-body aircraft on May 1 increased by 0.7 hours compared to 2019, indicating strong demand for long-distance travel [3][8] Group 3: International Travel Trends - The recovery rate of international flights reached 91%, with cross-border travel showing a "dual warming" trend due to visa-free policies [5][8] - Inbound travel orders surged by 173% year-on-year during the holiday, with top destinations including Shanghai, Beijing, and Guangzhou [5][8] Group 4: Railway and Road Travel - Railway passenger volume increased by 10.5% year-on-year during the first three days of the holiday, exceeding expectations [6][8] - Daily average traffic on highways also grew by 4.9%, indicating a positive trend in road travel [6][8] - The popularity of lower-tier cities as travel destinations has contributed to increased demand for both rail and road travel [6][8]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant increase in travel demand during the Qingming Festival in 2025, driven by a strong recovery in domestic and international travel, alongside favorable oil price trends that are expected to positively impact airline profitability [8]. Group 1: Oil Price and Airline Costs - OPEC+ announced an unexpected increase in oil production, leading to a substantial drop in Brent crude oil prices, which fell by 12.5% from April 2 to April 4, with a year-on-year decline expanding from 14.3% to 26.6% [1][6]. - The price of aviation kerosene is expected to further decline, with a year-on-year decrease of 5.5 percentage points to 15.2%, which will positively affect airline operating costs [1][6]. - A 10% fluctuation in oil prices could reduce the fuel costs for major airlines by approximately 45.5 to 55.0 billion [1][6]. Group 2: Travel Demand and Passenger Volume - The Qingming Festival in 2025 saw a 9.7% year-on-year increase in cross-regional travel, with significant growth in railway (8.4%), civil aviation (8.6%), and highway passenger volumes (9.7%) [2][8]. - The National Railway Group predicts a 12.7% increase in passenger volume during the holiday period, with a majority of travelers opting for short-distance trips within 500 km [3][4]. - The average daily passenger volume for civil aviation is expected to grow by 10.3% during the Qingming Festival, with domestic flight capacity reaching historical highs [5][8]. Group 3: Market Trends and Future Outlook - The article anticipates a transition in airline ticket pricing from "industry self-discipline" to "supply-demand optimization," with a projected average ticket price decrease of 7.9% compared to the previous year [6][8]. - The recovery rate for international flights is expected to reach around 90% of 2019 levels, with popular destinations including Japan, South Korea, and Thailand [5][8]. - The combination of strong travel demand and reduced fuel costs is expected to lead to improved profitability for airlines during the off-peak season [6][8].