Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [7] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of $3.6 billion in Q1 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 7.3%, primarily due to weakened demand in Asia and North America [1] - Adjusted EBITDA profit was $130 million, down 20.8% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to shareholders was $48.2 million, down 41.9% year-on-year, indicating profit pressure under negative operating leverage [1] - The company anticipates revenues of $3.6 billion, $3.7 billion, and $3.9 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits of $300 million, $347.8 million, and $397.2 million, reflecting a temporary performance pressure due to tariff policies and macroeconomic fluctuations [5] Regional Performance - In Q1 2025, revenue from Asia was $310 million, down 9.7% year-on-year, while North America generated $260 million, down 8.3% year-on-year. Europe, however, showed resilience with revenue of $180 million, flat year-on-year, and a 4.4% increase in fixed exchange rates [2] - The Indian market benefited from strategic adjustments, showing a fixed exchange rate revenue increase of 2.6%, while South Korea and China faced declines due to overall demand weakness [2] Brand Performance - Revenue by brand in Q1 2025 was $410 million for Samsonite, $190 million for TUMI, and $130 million for American Tourister, with TUMI showing relative resilience with a year-on-year decline of only 3.7% [3] - The company opened 9 new stores, bringing the total to 1,128, demonstrating confidence in growth despite a weakening retail environment [3] Profitability and Cost Structure - Gross margin for Q1 2025 was 59.4%, a decrease of 1.1 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to a lower proportion of high-margin sales from Asia [4] - The adjusted EBITDA margin was 16.0%, down 2.7 percentage points year-on-year, indicating pressure on profitability due to rising expense ratios [4] Financial Forecast and Valuation - The report projects a P/E ratio of 9, 8, and 7 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting the company's valuation amidst current market conditions [5] - The anticipated net profit for 2025 is $300 million, representing a 13.1% decline from the previous year, but expected to recover with a 15.8% increase in 2026 [11]

Core Viewpoint - The demand for domestic travel during the 2025 Labor Day holiday is expected to exceed 350 million trips, representing a year-on-year growth of over 15% [1][2][8] Group 1: Domestic Travel Demand - The Ministry of Culture and Tourism predicts that domestic tourism during the Labor Day holiday will surpass 350 million trips, with a year-on-year increase of over 15% [1][2] - The first three days of the holiday saw a total of 840 million cross-regional travelers, a year-on-year increase of 4.9%, with civil aviation and railway passenger volumes growing by 12.5% and 10.5% respectively [2][6] - The longer holiday period and the ability to combine days off have led to a broader travel range and increased travel volume compared to the Qingming Festival [2][6] Group 2: Civil Aviation Performance - Daily average passenger volume for civil aviation reached 219,200, marking a historical high and a year-on-year increase of 12.5% [3][8] - The average ticket price is expected to decline by no more than 5% year-on-year, with effective measures to curb price drops during the holiday [4][8] - The utilization rate of narrow-body aircraft on May 1 increased by 0.7 hours compared to 2019, indicating strong demand for long-distance travel [3][8] Group 3: International Travel Trends - The recovery rate of international flights reached 91%, with cross-border travel showing a "dual warming" trend due to visa-free policies [5][8] - Inbound travel orders surged by 173% year-on-year during the holiday, with top destinations including Shanghai, Beijing, and Guangzhou [5][8] Group 4: Railway and Road Travel - Railway passenger volume increased by 10.5% year-on-year during the first three days of the holiday, exceeding expectations [6][8] - Daily average traffic on highways also grew by 4.9%, indicating a positive trend in road travel [6][8] - The popularity of lower-tier cities as travel destinations has contributed to increased demand for both rail and road travel [6][8]

文 ｜ 扈世民 张昕玥 张庆焕 据航班管家统计，2 0 2 5年清明节假期首日全民航客运航班量同比增长6 . 2%，其中国内线航班量 同比增长3 . 2%，国际线航班量同比增长3 0 . 2%，恢复至2 0 1 9年同期的8 7 . 9%。航班管家预测， 2 0 2 5年清明假期全民航日均航班量、客运量将同比增长5 . 7%、1 0 . 3%，航空出行人数同比高增、 需求旺盛（2 0 2 4年劳动节/端午民航日均客运量同比增长8 . 1%/ 7 . 9%），我们预计客座率将升至 历史同期新高。国际航线方面，据航班管家预测，日本、韩国、泰国、马来西亚、新加坡为国际 航班量To p 5，恢复至2 0 1 9年同期的1 0 8 . 5%/ 9 7 . 5%/ 6 5 . 8%/ 1 3 3 . 8%/ 111 . 4%（泰国受安全事件影 响，恢复率略低），我们预计清明假期间，国际航班量恢复率约九成左右。 ▍ 期待航油成本压力的缓解传导至航司利润端，或为2 0 2 5年上市航司最大的业绩边际变量，叠 加票价降幅收窄，淡季利润端有望明显改善。 4月3日OPEC+宣布同意5月国际原油供应增产4 1 . 1万桶/日，增幅为 ...