Core Insights - Temu's strategic adjustment in response to the US-China tariff conflict has created significant industry disruption, particularly through its "semi-managed + Y2 model" which aims to navigate the challenges posed by rising customs costs and enhanced consumer experience [1] Temu Y2 Model: A "Light Asset" Experiment Under Tariff Pressure - The Y2 model is a product of policy-driven necessity, shifting seller focus from inventory management to supply chain optimization through a combination of "pricing authority + traffic support" [3] - A key innovation is the "segmented logistics control," which has reduced air freight costs by 17% through large-scale operations at domestic collection warehouses, while the mandatory use of Call waybill systems creates a closed-loop for end logistics data [3] - Sellers using the Y2 model have reported a decrease in logistics costs by $4.2 per order, but must increase inventory turnover rates to 2.3 times that of traditional models to offset conversion rate losses due to a 14-day delivery time [3] Temu Y2 Model: Three Major Pitfalls - Customs costs and compliance pressures require sellers to have robust customs qualifications or partnerships with third parties, with some product tariffs soaring to 245% and overall tax rates reaching 46.1%, necessitating cash flow reserves for customs guarantees [4] - Extended stocking periods provide sellers with more time but lead to longer consumer wait times, and strict adherence to platform logistics requirements limits sellers' choice of logistics providers, potentially harming consumer satisfaction and increasing after-sales costs [4] - Platform risk management and intensified competition arise from strict logistics management requirements, with false shipments triggering full refunds, and the potential for a surge in new Y2 store openings could exacerbate competition [4] Overseas Warehouse Model: A Survival Barrier Through Policy Cycles - Supported by various policies, the overseas warehouse model allows for bulk customs clearance, reducing tax rates and alleviating financial pressure through tax refunds upon export [5] - Local warehouse shipping significantly shortens logistics times, meeting Temu's requirements for shipping and collection efficiency, while both sellers and overseas warehouse service providers can monitor inventory in real-time to ensure timely replenishment [5] Conclusion: The Future of Cross-Border Trade - The true winners in the tariff and logistics battle will be those companies that can quickly build "elastic supply chains," combining the agility of the Y2 model with the stability of overseas warehouses to protect profit margins [6] - As cross-border trade enters a "micro-profit era," refined operational capabilities will become the critical factor for survival [6]

前脚，5 月 12 日中美关于 " 对等关税 " 的贸易战暂时停火（ 传送门 ），紧接着，5 月 13 日，特朗普在跨境电商卖家们最关心的关税问题上又做出了一点 " 让步 "。 5 月 13 日，白宫发布总统特朗普修正行政命令，对 5 月 2 日起生效的 " 正式取消中国大陆、中国香港地区商品的小额免税待遇 " 的行政命令进行调整， 将该类包裹的关税税率从 120% 降低至 54%，同时，保留自 5 月 2 日起生效的每件小额邮递物品 100 美元的从量关税，并撤销原计划于 6 月 1 日将从量 关税提高至 200 美元的规定 。（ 5 月 14 日，路透消息称美方会进一步降低小包裹关税至 30% ） 至此，相关小包裹的税率政策完成了 0 → 120% → 54% 的过山车。此前，在 4 月 25 日，Temu 和 Shein 曾同步发出涨价预警：因贸易规则与关税变化导 致运营成本激增，即日起调整价格。 过去，大量跨境电商卖家高度依赖于小额包裹免税政策，Temu 和 Shein 也因此在美区获得爆发式增长，而美区消费者们也受惠于此政策才网购到来自中 国的低价好物。根据美国海关和边境保护局的数据，仅在 2024 ...