分析师：张刚 登记编码：S0730511010001 zhanggang@ccnew.com 021-50586990 晨会聚焦 | 指数名称 | | 收盘 | 涨跌幅(%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 道琼斯 | | 30,772.79 | -0.67 | | 标普 | 500 | 3,801.78 | -0.45 | | 纳斯达克 | | 11,247.58 | -0.15 | | 德国 | DAX | 12,756.32 | -1.16 | | 富时 | 100 | 7,156.37 | -0.74 | | 日经 | 225 | 26,643.39 | 0.62 | | 恒生指数 | | 24,148.07 | 1.09 | 资料来源：Wind,中原证券 资料来源：Wind,中原证券 -7% -2% 4% 10% 16% 22% 28% 34% 2024.07 2024.11 2025.03 2025.07 上证指数 深证成指 | 国内市场表现 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指数名称 | | 昨日收盘价 | 涨跌幅 ...

美国"大而美法案"短期内提振经济，但长期财政可持续性引关注，赤 字率或增至 GDP 的 7%，需警惕长期国债风险。 关税战暂停键到期后，贸易摩擦存在延长、恶化或达成协议三种情形， 不确定性持续拖累全球经济和企业信心，企业投资信心依旧不足。 中国刺激消费的结构性改革提上日程，中央和地方层面均释放出改革和 再平衡信号，旨在通过制度改革促进消费增长，实现更均衡发展。 中美两国 AI 需求差异显著，美国 AI 资本开支强劲，中国 AI 需求端仍面 临挑战，实际利润增厚尚未显现，需关注技术推进及业绩增长。 预计未来 12 个月人民币对美元升值幅度有限，即使美元显著贬值，人 民币对一篮子货币升值空间也不大，结构性再平衡需制度改革。 中国股市二季度末至三季度大概率区间震荡，受关税、解禁期及政策预 期影响，建议采取稳妥策略，关注业绩确定性较高的股票。 新消费股票蓬勃发展阶段已过，更看重稳定盈利和估值吸引力，通缩压 力持续，消费需求处于弱势盘整状态，政策支持力度是关键变量。 Q&A 美国通过的大而美法案对美国经济、市场及财政可持续性有何影响？ 大而美法案的通过对美国经济、市场及财政可持续性产生了多方面的影响。首 先，该法案旨在 ...

Group 1: Performance of the "Magnificent Seven" - The "Magnificent Seven" stocks, including Alphabet, Apple, Amazon, Meta Platforms, Microsoft, Nvidia, and Tesla, have been significant contributors to market growth but are experiencing uneven performance in 2025 [1][2] - Apple and Tesla are suggested to be replaced by Palantir Technologies and Broadcom due to their underperformance [2] Group 2: Apple’s Challenges - Apple's revenue growth has slowed, with fiscal 2024 revenue at $391 billion, down from $394.3 billion in fiscal 2022, and only a 4% year-over-year increase in the first half of fiscal 2025 [5][6] - The company has not introduced new breakout products recently and is lagging in AI innovation, with its AI offerings failing to drive significant upgrades in iPhone sales [6][7] - Apple is losing market share in China to local competitors like Xiaomi and Huawei, leading to declining revenue and necessitating sales incentives [7][8] Group 3: Tesla’s Struggles - Tesla's EV deliveries fell by 13% in Q1 and 14% in Q2, with auto revenue dropping by 20% [9][10] - Increased competition, particularly in China, and the rise of hybrid vehicles are contributing to Tesla's challenges, alongside CEO Elon Musk's controversial political actions that have alienated potential buyers [10][11] - Despite hopes for its robotaxi business, skepticism remains regarding its safety and effectiveness, with Alphabet's Waymo leading in the driverless ride-sharing sector [12] Group 4: Palantir’s Growth - Palantir has shown strong growth, with Q1 revenue increasing by 39% year over year, driven largely by U.S. government contracts, which grew by 45% to $373 million [14][15] - The company is positioning its Artificial Intelligence Platform (AIP) as a key tool for clients, enabling data integration and AI application across various industries [15][16] Group 5: Broadcom’s Opportunities - Broadcom's revenue grew by 20% year over year, with adjusted EPS rising by 44%, primarily due to its AI networking portfolio, which saw a 70% revenue surge [17][18] - The company is focusing on custom AI chips, with significant opportunities projected from hyperscaler customers planning to deploy 1 million AI chip clusters by 2027, representing a serviceable opportunity of $60 billion to $90 billion [19][20]

Core Insights - Tesla's initial public offering (IPO) occurred on June 29, 2010, with a revenue of approximately $150 million, primarily from the Roadster model [1][2] - The company has evolved significantly, now being the eighth most valuable publicly traded U.S. company with a market cap exceeding $1 trillion and nearly $100 billion in revenue last year [5] - Tesla's current financial success is driven by the Model Y SUV and Model 3 sedan, along with sales of environmental regulatory credits, rather than the earlier models [6] Company Performance - An investment of $10,000 in Tesla at the time of its IPO would now be worth nearly $3 million, compared to about $57,000 if invested in the S&P 500 [4] - Tesla's stock has experienced significant volatility, with over 40 instances of gaining or losing at least 20% in a single month since its IPO [21] Leadership and Vision - CEO Elon Musk's leadership is characterized by ambitious goals, including the development of autonomous vehicles and humanoid robots, which he believes could elevate Tesla's market cap to $25 trillion [8][9] - Musk's recent political involvement and controversial statements have impacted Tesla's reputation and stock performance [16][19] Market Challenges - Tesla faces increasing competition, particularly from lower-cost Chinese manufacturers, leading to sluggish EV sales and a decline in automotive revenue for two consecutive years [12] - The company's newest model, the Cybertruck, has not gained significant traction in the U.S. market, and sales in Europe have declined for five consecutive months [13] Stock Performance Trends - Tesla's stock saw its best month in May 2013 with an 81% increase, driven by the first quarterly profit and strong Model S sales [22] - The stock's worst month was December 2022, with a 37% decline due to production halts and Musk's stock sales to fund his Twitter acquisition [26] - In February 2025, the stock plummeted 28% following disappointing earnings and concerns over reduced vehicle registrations in Europe [28]

A c t i o n | 13 Jun 2025 16:09:15 ET │ 27 pages US Equity Strategy "Good ROE" Increasingly Scarce CITI'S TAKE Stocks where ROE is expected to improve due to margin expansion and/or total asset turnover gains are becoming less abundant in the S&P 500. This is largely a function of downgraded outlooks on softer macros and trade concerns. The stocks that still find their way into our Positive ROE Trend baskets are expected to generate excess EPS growth over comparable indices, and even more so relative to Neg ...

Texas-based Tesla leads the 2025 list, claiming the top four spots for the second time since its debut on the index in 2020. After holding the No. 1 position for three consecutive years with the Model Y, Tesla now leads with the Model 3, followed by the Models Y, S and X. Rounding out the top five is the Jeep Gladiator, making it the highest-ranked American-made pickup truck. Automakers like Honda stand out for consistency and scale. Its Alabama facility produces five of this year's top 20 vehicles — includ ...

GS Equity Radar What the market is missing on S899 and buying against the grain Something others are missing on S899. The merchandising team hosted a highly attended (1,000+ clients live) webcast with Chief US Political Economist, Alec Phillips, and our strategists (Sharon Bell and Guillaume Jaisson). What surprised us most was the volume of questions on the 50%+ US ownership being exempt in the current form of the bill and the feedback that other commentators were scanning for high US revenues without an o ...

本周行业动态： 亚马逊加码 AI 基建，宣布在美国北卡罗来纳州投资约 100 亿美元 亚马逊当地时间 6 月 4 日宣布计划在美国北卡罗来纳州投资约 100 亿美 元，扩展其位于当地的数据中心基础设施以支持 AI 和云计算技术。亚马逊 表示此次投资预计将创造至少 500 个新的高技能工作岗位（包括数据中心 工程师、网络专家、工程运营经理、安全专家等），同时在 AWS 数据中心 供应链中带来数千个其它工作岗位。 卫星互联网低轨 04 组卫星成功发射 行业报告 | 行业研究周报 通信 证券研究报告 亚马逊加码 AI 基建，卫星互联网低轨 04 组卫星成功发射 3、低估值、高分红，云和算力 idc 资源重估：中国移动、中国电信、中国联通。 4、AIDC&散热：重点推荐：英维克（机械联合覆盖）、润泽科技（机械联合覆 盖）、润建股份、光环新网、科华数据（电新联合覆盖）、奥飞数据（计算机联合覆 盖）、数据港（计算机联合覆盖）。建议关注：申菱环境（家电覆盖）、宏景科技、 高澜股份、科创新源等； 5、AIGC 应用/端侧算力，重点推荐：移远通信、广和通、美格智能，建议关注： 彩讯股份、梦网科技、翱捷科技。 二、海风海缆&智能 ...

ToplineA pessimistic prediction for Tesla sales from Goldman Sachs added further fuel to the Tesla fire, as the unraveling relationship between Tesla CEO Elon Musk and his former close ally President Donald Trump plays out publicly, accelerating Wall Street’s concerns about the increasing exposure of Tesla to Musk’s outspoken politics.Elon Musk has alienated “multiple sides of the political spectrum” from Tesla, according to one ... More prominent Wall Street analyst.AFP via Getty ImagesKey FactsIn a late T ...

Just under three months ago, President Donald Trump stood next to Elon Musk outside the White House to choose a new Tesla. Following his explosive feud with the Tesla CEO, Trump may be about to ditch his shiny EV too. A senior White House official confirmed to Business Insider that Trump was considering selling or giving away the red Model S, which has a list price of about $80,000. The Wall Street Journal first reported the news.Trump picked out the Model S from a lineup of Tesla vehicles during a sales p ...